What makes me absolutely sick about sports betting.

[necro]

Polish/Slovakish/Czesich ==> ''Pozhonteki''

[pip2]

The validity of the bet comes down to how often you can expect Sac to win by 7 or by 8. Let's say you laid that bet one hundred times, and one time out of a hundred, Sac won by 7, and then another time out of a hundred, Sac won by 8, and then 98 times out of a hundred, you either pushed or you won $15. Just for the sake of discussion we could split the 98 times in half and say that 49 times you push, and 49 times you win $15.

So a hundred times you bet $205:
1 time you lose $205
1 time you lose $105
49 times you push
49 times you win $15 for a total of $735

So under those circumstances, where you did the same bet over and over again one hundred times, you ended up $735 minus $205 minus $105 equals $425 ahead. The bet made you money.

The only problem is that I pulled the one out of a hundred number (for the -205 outcome and the -105 outcome) out of my ass. If Sac wins by 7 three out of a hundred times, and wins by 8 three out of a hundred times, you made a bad bet:

3 times you lose $205 = -$605
3 times you lose $105 = -$315
49 times you push
49 times you win $15 = $735

So under those circumstances you lost $185 overall, the bet was a loser.

So the question of whether the bet is good or bad depends on the precise percentage of occurrence of each possible outcome. And it can all come down to the nitty gritty of whether something might happen 1 time out of a hundred, or 3 times out of a hundred.

Sorry to get all professorial about it. That's how I learned how to look at these situations when I was playing backgammon.

[upscope]

Actually Pip, the bet comes down to a lack of experience & mental lapse on OP's part

Just sayin'

[pip2]

Actually Pip, the bet comes down to a lack of experience & mental lapse on OP's part

Just sayin'

Right, but you can't really explain what made the bet bad, right? Or you're too busy? Just sayin'

[upscope]

Right, but you can't really explain what made the bet bad, right? Or you're too busy? Just sayin'

Refer to post #32 in this particular thread to see why i thought the bet was bad.

[pip2]

Refer to post #32 in this particular thread to see why i thought the bet was bad.

Oh, I like that explanation. Much tighter than mine. I probably missed yours because you posted it while I was plodding away at writing my own post.

[upscope]

Oh, I like that explanation. Much tighter than mine. I probably missed yours because you posted it while I was plodding away at writing my own post.

Yea but yours is based on fact. Mine is based on jumbled logic backed UP w/ most likely incorrect math....lol

btw.....long live Paul Magriel!!

[ridims]

lets be honest here. you wouldnt have done this if you didnt feel comfortable with your initial bet. i suggest you stop gambling on sports if you do this regularly.
$15 profit thought process/hedging if you will.. on a total of $200 wagered on a possibility that it will lose (regardless of %) is not very wise even if that % is so low of hitting.

[upscope]

$15 profit thought process/hedging if you will.. on a total of $200 wagered on a possibility that it will lose (regardless of %) is not very wise even if that % is so low of hitting.

$205.....just sayin'

[Mikeyanks23]

learn math

[Brutus84]

Justin

[tblues2005]

A little bad luck if you ask me.

[Riceboi]

I did the math and risking $205 to win $15 is roughly -1370 juice.

So you probably had like a 90-95%+ chance to win the bet, but that was a bad beat. lol sorry bud.

[uncynd]

Looks like a nightmare, but I can admit to doing shit like this, the key is to LEARN.

[stevenash]

I dunno, I guess I just looked at it like it was a free 15 bucks.

No such thing as a free 15 dollars.
Shake it off, get it back tonight.

[mikeyplata]

Are you Polish??

[stevenash]

^
Who me?

[CDMKMP]

No such thing as a free 15 dollars.
Shake it off, get it back tonight.

Well ... there are foolproof hedges that can guarantee money. This obviously isn't one of them.

[Goodease]

Yea, there are definitely fool proof hedges. I love having a late game in a 3 or 4 team parlay so if the early games hit I can gauruntee myself money or at least a break even.

[boeing power]

Justin just texted me his plays for tonight.

Miami heat -5.5 -145
NY Knicks. +9.5 -140

Free money.

[ParlayBricker]

Justin just texted me his plays for tonight.

Miami heat -5.5 -145
NY Knicks. +9.5 -140

Free money.

hhahaha

[hougigo]

You know what makes me sick?
Meaningless scores.

[darkhat]

Are you Polish??

[Smoke]

Are you a fukkin pollock?

[alldaybaby]

The end of that Kings game was such BS. Tyreke hitting TWO 3's in a row while the Raptors turned it over and Lowry jacked up a 40 footer. Couldn't believe it. I still got a push cause I had -1 but it was still ridiculous.

This guy must be polish though.

[stevenash]

jesteś Polakiem?

[Justin3587]

Haha I like how over the long run this strategy is profitable. But since I lose last night I get criticized. Wouldn't expect anything less from SBR

[Vegas39]

fukkin kid

[boeing power]

Haha I like how over the long run this strategy is profitable. But since I lose last night I get criticized. Wouldn't expect anything less from SBR

You risked 215 to win 15 and lost.

You're the biggest moron on this site.

Please keep all your picks in one thread for us to fade.

[pip2]

You risked 215 to win 15 and lost.

You're the biggest moron on this site.

Please keep all your picks in one thread for us to fade.

If you faded all the NBA picks he gave in the pre-season and early November you would have ended up with something like 1 win and a dozen or more losses...

[Duff85]

Haha I like how over the long run this strategy is profitable. But since I lose last night I get criticized. Wouldn't expect anything less from SBR

I'd be surprised if it is indeed profitable. I haven't ran the numbers, but this has the feel of an unprofitable strategy to me. Regardless you would make far more money, with far less risk by simply betting the side that is +ev. (again you would need to identify that somehow) With all due respect I think you should learn to crawl before you try and walk Justin.

[PerfectGrape]

As a rough estimate, if there is a 5% chance of pushing ML and 5% chance of losing both

EV = (50%)(+$0)+(40%)(+$15)+(5%)(-$105)+(5%)(-$205)
EV= 0 + $6 - $5.25 - $10.25
EV = -$9.5

If you bet $200 on a -110 at gametime

EV=(50%)(+$200)+(50%)(-$220)
EV=$-10

In the long run, it is much more retarded to play a 5 team parlay, yet everyone is congratulating that other guy for his great play, which was probably much much more -EV

[Justin3587]

If you faded all the NBA picks he gave in the pre-season and early November you would have ended up with something like 1 win and a dozen or more losses...

Pip. Don't make me search through all those threads. I did excellent in preseason. I lost like two games. We could make a wager on this.... How bout forum rights? We pull all my preseason threads. If I have less than 60 percent wins, I'll stop posting. If I have 60 percent or higher, you're done.

[Justin3587]

You risked 215 to win 15 and lost.

You're the biggest moron on this site.

Please keep all your picks in one thread for us to fade.

I enjoy a good shit talker from time to time, but I won't accept it from some fukk boy who doesn't even post picks, just comments on everyone else's losses. You should just go back to drinking Capri Suns and watching little house on the praire.

[Bigbill365]

So what happend the raptors won by 1?