Welcome to the bottom rung of the BCS conference ladder, the Big East. The conference's only ranked school, West Virginia, will be the host team for ESPN's Thursday night college football betting battle against the visiting South Florida Bulls. West Virginia enters the fracas off its third straight spread cover last week in Las Vegas, a 49-10 win built largely on the legs of Mountaineers RB Noel Devine.
The Big Least schedule is hitting its stride, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the No. 25 Mountaineers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) and the rest of the schools in the league. The Big East has won only two of 13 games SU against other BCS opponents, is 0-5 SU against ranked teams, and is below .500 against FBS schools overall.
WVU is the class of the conference as the only ranked outfit of the bunch as it gets ready to host South Florida (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) on Thursday night in Morgantown (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
By most indications, the Mountaineers should roll over the Bulls as 10½- to 11-point favorites on the betting odds board at Mountaineer Field. The public agrees: Just over 70% of wagers on the spread had come in on West Virginia as of press time which caused the drop from the original 11½-12 point spread.
USF has a decent team defensively, ranking 18th nationally in total defense (301.2 YPG), 12th against the pass (155.0 YPG), and 19th in scoring defense (16.0 PPG), but that’s where the good reviews end.
The Bulls have played a cupcake schedule for a team playing in a BCS conference, even if it’s the Big East. South Florida’s victories this season are against Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic.
Sophomore quarterback B.J. Daniels, after showing flashes of competency in relief of Matt Grothe last season, hasn’t handled the load as expected. Daniels went only 9-of-23 for 124 yards with two interceptions in the Bulls’ 13-9 loss in Tampa Bay against Syracuse (+8) on Saturday, as the Orange picked up only their fifth Big East win in the last six seasons.
Overall, USF is 103rd in the country in passing (161.0 YPG). Considering who they’ve played and Daniels’ performance last week against ‘Cuse, I’m not liking how the offense matches up against a Mountaineer defense that’s seventh in yards allowed (254.6 YPG), ninth against the run (86.8 YPG), 20th against the pass (167.8 YPG), and seventh in scoring defense (13.6 PPG).
It’s not like West Virginia stumbles into Thursday night, either. The Mountaineers creamed UNLV 49-10 on Saturday in Vegas as 26½-point chalk to cash their third straight game against the spread. WVU led 42-0 in the third quarter, building much of its lead behind a Noel Devine-led running game that posted 219 yards on the ground.
Devine finished with 84 yards on three carries with two touchdowns for the Mountaineers, while Geno Smith quietly had an efficient game under center. Smith went 12-of-16 for 220 yards and three TDs to Bradley Starks, who ended the day with 100 yards receiving.
I know I ripped the Big East a few paragraphs ago, but West Virginia isn’t the one giving the league a bad name with handicappers and squares alike. The Mountaineers (+9½) played unbeaten LSU tough in a 20-14 loss in Baton Rouge in Week 4.
Taking WVU as 10½- or 11-point college football betting faves seems like a no-brainer until you account for its recent history with South Florida. In short, the Bulls are the Mountaineers’ nemesis.
USF (+2½) upset West Virginia 30-19 last October in Tampa, and is 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the schools. Daniels had his best start as a college quarterback against Bill Stewart’s team last year, passing for 232 yards with three scores to go along with 104 yards rushing on 14 attempts.
The Bulls also did a good job of holding Devine and WVU’s ground game in check last season. Devine did rack up 75 all-purpose yards in the loss, but 33 of those yards came through the air.
The Mountaineers’ only SU win in their last four matchups with South Florida came two years ago in Morgantown, but they couldn’t cover the 7-point fave tag for backers in a 13-7 victory.
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 03-25-15 at 11:34 AM.
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