Originally posted on 07/22/2014:

Good write-up, did something similar myself the other day and for what it's worth my thinking is as follows:

AFC East
Same order as you, though I have Miami + Jets with 9 and 8 wins and Bills with just 3. Defensively they are a mess, and not sure the signing of Watkins will really make a lot of difference to the number of games they will win and they look a team that could well struggle this year.

AFC North:
Still think Cincy win this division, don't really rate Baltimore or Pittsburgh this year - though it does seem that all the "experts" out there really do like Pittsburgh, and the more I look at it the less I can see why to be honest so either I have missed something in my analysis, or most of the experts are wrong here, so happy to discuss why anyone likes them to see if it will change my view!

AFC South:
Agree with Indy winning the Div and Houston improving (though have them at 9 wins) but disagree with Tennessee - I think this is a team in a fair bit of trouble and they havent really improved from what I can see, although they havent gotten much worse either admittedly. They do have a decent schedule, but I still don't see more than 4 or 5 wins at most and actually think that Jacksonville might even finish ahead of them, leaving them bottom of the Div.

AFC West:
Really don't like Kansas this year and they have gotten weaker for me, particularly on the O-Line which will lead to Smith being under more pressure and also the defence looks worse on paper as well, so not sure they can rely on that this year. Really can't seem them anywhere near a winning record and I am all over the Under 8.5 season wins, and looking at the under 8 wins at +110 as value as well.

NFC East:
Would be interested to know what you see in Dallas to think they win win the division this year as I evidently don't see the same and actually have them finishing dead last. Defensively they look a mess, particularly in the secondary and with some of the pass-heavy teams they face this year (Philly x2, New Orleans, Chicago, Indianapolis) as well as San Fran + Seattle and that is potentially 7 losses right there, with still a couple of trickyish games vs Houston + St Louis as well as 4 vs the Giants + Skins and again I like the Under 7.5 here personally.

NFC North:
Disagree with Detroit again here, for many similar reasons to why I don't like Dallas - their secondary is full of holes and they have to play GB x2, CHI x2, New Orleans, Atlanta + New England all of whom should be able to put up big numbers as well as the Giants which won't be easy and also Miami + Jets which won't be easy either (though that is in keeping with my view that they are both improved of course!). Their offence does looks scary good, but I see them being involved in a lot of shoot-outs this year and just don't see the defence keeping them in games enough.

NFC South:
I can see a big step backwards for Carolina this year - once again their secondary is garbage, and they have to play NO x2, ATL x2, DET, CHI, PHI, GB which is potentially 8 losses there plus throw in Seattle for a liekly 9th loss. I have Tampa as quite improved this year so will cause them some problems, and Cincy as well as Baltimore + Pittsburgh - even though I don't rate either of them this year, I do rate them higher than the Panthers. If you look at their schedule I can't see more than 1 or 2 wins at the very most before their week 12 BYE week and it is not out of the realms of possibility that they could be 0-11 at that point. Under 8.5 wins is my biggest season win view of the year.

NFC West:
Pretty much same view as you right the way through with San Fran just edging the division ahead of Seattle, also St Louis I have for 9 wins as well.

More than happy to hear any other opinions anyone has