Can someone please provide me the link to John's College FB thread? I would really appreciate it. Thank You! 
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Line movements hardly ever alter my play. In my 18 years I am either right or wrong and sure the hook comes into play, but my sim will start showing me opportunities when the probabilities are high that the team will cover by 7 or more points. This allows for bad breaks, turnovers, blocked punts, and all the other 'bad' things that can happen to a given NFL play. It also, gives me confidence during a game when things go my with a special teams effort or turnover, missed field goal etc., that I am going to be right with the play. Hope that makes sense.Comment -
Some trends on the games for discussion purposes. These are not the reason why I am making the play. They only serve to support and hopefully explain the reason for the play. The sim is the dominant reason why. period.
Play against road dogs, which in this case is Oakland, including pick-em after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
22-3 over the last 5 seasons for 88% winners.Comment -
Love 'contrarian' system like this one that supports KC.
Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a struggling offensive team scoring 17 or less points per game. 28-8 for 78% ATS winners since 2005.Comment -
Same system applies to New England that applies to the Houston/Okland game provided above. My sim shows a very high probability that NE will gain 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt in this game. In past games, NE is 53-16 ATS (+35.4 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards per attempt since 1992. Jets are just 11-44 ATS (-37.4 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards per attempt since 1992.Comment -
tough loss on Miss STComment -
man outta all the teams to let me down on my 5 teamer. Utah, but I was asking for it..... it was a miss-match Arizona St is a tuff confrence opponent but I really thought Utah had a chance. The did well on the 1st half but blew it big time at home. "NOT TODAY" I guess. Im glad I was 7-3 on NCAAF today.
Thanks to John, I've got a new game plan this year!Comment -
Oakland to get a win for Mr. Davis Tomorrow.
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My plays for the day.
Buffalo > Philly
Houston > Oakland
San Diego > Denver
Green Bay > Atlanta
I like the San Diego one the least.
Thoughts?Comment -
Plays for today!!
OVER 51 in Saints/Panthers
Giants -10 vs. Seattle
Denver +4 vs. San Diego
Colts -2 vs. Kansas City
Pittsburgh -3 vs. Tennessee
Any thoughts, Good or Bad. Please give it to me straight. Likes and Dislikes.
Thank You. Kevin.Comment -
i haate buffalo..sucker play buffalo will not continue this pace...and gb sketchy at 6..and sd will lose..Comment -
I love your Giants -10 pick. I don't even think Seattle will come close to covering. I also like Denver + the points but I am against you on the Colts and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's offensive line has been...well...offensive and Ben has just not looked the same this year. Besides, I think Chris Johnson starts to get on track and open up the Titan's run game more. GL with your picks though and best of luck! Cheers.
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I am staying away from the Buffalo/Philly game myself but if I had a gun held to my head, I would take Buffalo. Public still hates them and I hate Philly's offensive line. Vick is out at least twice a game with some kind of injury. Dream Team? I don't see it and Fitzpatrick is underrated. Love the Houston pick and I think they cover easily. I am against you on Green Bay game. I think this game is closer than one may think it will be. I think Atlanta gets backdoor cover but best of luck with all your games today! Cheers
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Not sure how to deal with the death of Al Davis. I don't know if it will have a dramatic impact on the game. Oakland will certainly play hard, but will it be harder than if this big loss had not occurred? The line is down to 4 1/2 , but the game is in Houston. I'm sticking with this play.Comment -
Well, I am Kansas City today, I truly have no other comments one way or the other on your other picks. I certainly respect them and hope they all win for you. Of all of the I do think the Giants have the potential to blowout Seattle early.I love your Giants -10 pick. I don't even think Seattle will come close to covering. I also like Denver + the points but I am against you on the Colts and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's offensive line has been...well...offensive and Ben has just not looked the same this year. Besides, I think Chris Johnson starts to get on track and open up the Titan's run game more. GL with your picks though and best of luck! Cheers.Comment -
Not a bad idea, but Philly is a complete unknown right now. news is not good betting on teams that went 0-3 SU and ATS and were favorites in all three games as Philadelphia has accomplished. Teams are just 4-13 ATS having lost three straight games and ATS as favorites and then installed as a favorite of five or fewer points in the next game.I would stay away from the Philly teaser.Comment -
Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog after the first four weeks of the season. This system has gone
27-7 since 1983 for 79.4% winners. Obviously, this system supports the Steelers.Comment -
To recap my plays for the NFL. My record is 13-6 ATS entering Week 5
5* KC
5* Houston
5* New England
5* AtlantaComment -
I will check in with all fo you half time for some possible second half plays and opportunities. I did not see ANY totals that I liked today. Game flows and matchups are very difficult to identify that would give me any confidence to bet any total on the card today.Comment -
Not sure about that total play. As I mentioned previous, certainly fi this game plays 'over' it will be a possible 70 point game. But, there is a solid probability that this game may see only 35 points based on my sim. The projections are just all over the map. So, if you play over and win, it may be a winner before the end of the third quarter.I love your Giants -10 pick. I don't even think Seattle will come close to covering. I also like Denver + the points but I am against you on the Colts and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's offensive line has been...well...offensive and Ben has just not looked the same this year. Besides, I think Chris Johnson starts to get on track and open up the Titan's run game more. GL with your picks though and best of luck! Cheers.
Wondering if a first half bet playing'over' would make sense to you. Worth looking into I think.Comment -
John,
Just for a private contest I can get the Titans +3.5, which looks good to me. How do you feel about that?
Thanks!Comment -
Anyone consistently putting their money on Kansas City is going to be broke by mid-season.Comment -
I am seeing JAX at +120 on the money line with a 13-13 half-time score they are certainly in the game and playing at home.Comment -
I like Buffalo +240 as shown at Jst Bet for the second half play. I do not see Philly making the necessary adjustments with a very poor offensive line. Buffalo is getting to Vick on nearly every play. They bring pressure from different angles and mainly from Vick's left. The other side drops back and even when Vick dumps it off Buffalo has closed and tackled every well. So, for an extra bet and NOT part fo the 5* plays I like Buffalo +240 for say 2* amount. If it hits that is equivalent to nearly a 5* regular pay-out. Good luck and Thanks.Comment -
Well, so far it looks like a split. The Raiders really played well. Nice for their fans to see in light of the death of Al Davis. 25-20 with 1:29 to go. At this point I cannot win ATS, so I actually want to the Raiders hang on and get a win for the Davis family.
KC defeated Indy ... so, we need NE to get rolling and they are leading 7-0 zip in the first.Comment -
Again, check back at half-time for some possible plays I like and by all means list the ones you like. I have 5* Atlanta tonight.Comment -
any thing on the half time for ne or sfComment
