[BetWeather]

Many of you have stated or believe that mildly bad weather does not
effect football games. Think again...

Just found an interesting study of 1861 NFL games that shows that almost any bad weather greatly effects totals.

In many cases drastically. This study doesn't even factor in "Passing Teams"
which of course have a much harder time in bad weather.

It does seem to show that all NFL teams do worse in bad weather.

Here is the link.
http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Here are some sample "facts" from the study.
In 1861 games average Points Per Game was 42.0
- When there was "Rain or Snow" average total was just 37.
- With cross winds totals dropped to as low as 31.

"Passing" college teams should be hugely effected.... which interests me greatly.
What is your Opinion?

[babyanni]

you sure do like some bad weather. i hope there are some for you this year

[BetWeather]

1200+ college games + Global Warming + El Nino
Its going to be a nasty year!

I am writing software that shows the radar for all games on a given day,
on one screen. Going to put it on the web 4 free.

Even going to N-S-E-W stadium orientaton vs wind direction in real time.

Yes, I am a little weather crazy.
Ever since that twister took my house!

-----------------------------------------------------
Did you know it snows in Miami once every 20 years?

[slacker00]

Here are some sample "facts" from the study.
In 1861 games average Points Per Game was 42.0
- When there was "Rain or Snow" average total was just 37.

But "light snow" has an average of 48.

When it comes to rain, the field conditions are what matter more than anything. Find a study on that.

Also, throw away that 42, that's figuring in dome games which is completely irrelevant to weather discussion.

[BetWeather]

But "light snow" has an average of 48.

When it comes to rain, the field conditions are what matter more than anything. Find a study on that.

Also, throw away that 42, that's figuring in dome games which is completely irrelevant to weather discussion.

True light snow had a high average but really light snow is not even
weather. Look at the stats for rain, which is weather and does make a for a wet ball.
Also, Real Snow had an average of 37.5.

Anyway the line never moves down by more than a couple points even in strong
wind and pouring rain and that is the point.

[slacker00]

Anyway the line never moves down by more than a couple points even in strong
wind and pouring rain and that is the point.

Now we're talking about line movement?

[BetWeather]

Now we're talking about line movement?

Always were...
Why would we care about weather at all ?
Because it causes the line to drop. but.... only a couple points.

Study I read shows books/lines should drop lines drastically for
Wind and rain right?

But books never do, just a couple points why and why not
exploit such a big advantage to bettors?

[bigsmitty]

Call me simple but can you not put it down-for example a team like CHI or NYG playing at home in January getting off the bat three points over say a team from MIA or LAR? I personally like the cold weather teams because I think it makes them tougher-I would personally find it harder to play in the heat but I'm a CAN hockey guy. Cheers

[slacker00]

Always were...
Why would we care about weather at all ?
Because it causes the line to drop. but.... only a couple points.

Study I read shows books/lines should drop lines drastically for
Wind and rain right?

But books never do, just a couple points why and why not
exploit such a big advantage to bettors?

According to your own study, weather is only worth a couple points, on average. The books adjust.

Of course we want to exploit an advantage, but it's unclear where this data leads. The books already have this.

[BetWeather]

According to your own study, weather is only worth a couple points, on average. The books adjust.

Of course we want to exploit an advantage, but it's unclear where this data leads. The books already have this.

Slacker... when you say the books have this... You know perfectly well the
sports books have no idea what the weather will be a week before the game Even weatherman don't have a clue !!!

...And the books never do adjust... (except 1 or two points morning of game.)

I guess we are just looking at two different NFL Weather Studies...
Here are the facts I see at...
http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Total Outdoor Games 1473 PPG Avg. 41.4
One in every seven outdoor games played was a
rain or snow game = 219 of 1473

The average score for rain games was 37.2 = more than 4 points
The average score for snow games was 37.9 = about 4 points

But here is really interesting part.... The study included warm weather fields
where the rain is warm. Including places like san diego, miami, tampa bay
and arizona. Take them out and that 4 point advantage becomes an
7 point advantage !!!!

Why... because every knows that wet and cold is totally different
from being wet and warm! (tampa, miami,AZ,san diego,OAK, SF0, carolina, SEA)

Wind
77 or one in 20 games have wind greater than 20mph (about one per week)
The weighted average of those game totals is 35.3, more than 6 points lower
than the 41.4 avg of outdoor games.

Again take out the warm field games listed above...
It is obvious that that cold and windy is Soooo much more nasty
than warm and windy games.

Now your 6pt wind advantage looks more like a solid nine point advantage.

Now go back and take out teams where both are the running teams...
Which will up your odds another 1 point (more like 3 but lets be conservative).

Now your wind advantage is around 10 points and your rain advantage is
greater than 8 points !

Fact: line before weather games never drops more than 2 or at most 3 points.

NFL
My conclusions... bet on cold weather towns, where one team is passing and
you should see 20 NFL games a year > 7 point net totals advantage of sports
books. (who again never drop totals more than 2pts)

College
Even better points on College weather games.
(rookie QBs, many who will never make the pros due to small hand, poor field)

My conclusions... bet on cold weather towns, where both are not primary running
teams and you should see 60 College games a year > 10 point net totals advantage over sports books. (who again never drop totals more than 2pts)

======================================== ======================
Use the Internet to watch radar, wind, cross wind and rain for every college and
NFL Game. Bet 20 mins before game time by wathching storms approach the stadium on doppler radar!

[slacker00]

Slacker... when you say the books have this... You know perfectly well the
sports books have no idea what the weather will be a week before the game Even weatherman don't have a clue !!!

I'll have to flat disagree. It's a bit of a fallacy to suggest that there's no predicting the weather. I know it's fun to poke fun at the weatherman when he gets the forecast wrong, it happens. Thing is, they are right more than they are wrong.

But you're right about watching the radar before kickoff and picking off a soft line. But I think most of us are already on top of this trick.

[Rig]

But totals usually reflect and take into account the weather and drop it a few points
So I don't know what to do with this

[GunShard]

The Patriots vs Titans game last year ended with 59-0. The team with the best offense win in snow and rain, like the Patriots did.

I say high winds will create an Under at an outdoor stadium.

[Flying Dutchman]

Firstly, it is very difficult to exactly predict if it will rain or snow in a game. Unless you are viewing a game or at it, you really don't exactly know if it will rain or snow before a game. Yeah, yeah I hear the Wunderground stuff. I follow it too, and call folks at the game to follow up. Wunderground gives you conditions all around the game not AT the game.

2) Your db, which came from Gamebooks only have the conditions at the start of the game, not the conditions throughout the game. It is pretty easy with 20-20 hindsight to "predict" if rain happen out of a db. You state that 1 in 7 games are affected by rain or snow, this is a false number and much too high for real precip events.

3) The analysis shows the totals avg. dropping but doesn't have the corresponding line drop. That difference, if you are clairvoyant enough to foretell the rain/snow, is what you are after.

4) By your own analysis, you show light snow with a higher totals than regular or heavy snow. Can you predict which it will be in a game? I can't, and I'm a weather bug. Maybe I need your crystal ball.

5) have you really tried to predict the wind before a game? Really? Much harder than it looks and you need to pull the trigger just before kickoff.

6) Doppler radar. Right. I had the game on and watching the site, and on several occasions the weather missed, or went through after the game. It looks precise, but it isn't.

7) You try to pull your assumptions from Pros into college. Well, I have access to both, Pros from 1994 (a little longer than your db by twice) and college and they are different.

In point of fact, the books do tend to adjust by close to the expected precip. % rate at a game; your observations are simply off and you are data mining your db to fit your assumptions.

[BetWeather]

Must be seeing a different study than I am. Glad to hear you will be taking the over when it's blowing
22mph cross-winds 30 minutes before a game !

[BetWeather]

Glad you enjoyed the post.... and the study !

[Jrod124]

weather isn't a HUGE factor

[PatrickBateman]

BetWeather,

Love the name, best of luck with what you are trying to do

[BetWeather]

Flying dutchman.... you stated that I "...try to pull your assumptions from Pros into college. Well, I have access to both, Pros from 1994 (a little longer than your db by twice) and college and they are different"

First of all it is not " my study" secondly your wrong on nearly every point, which I guess you enjoy!

For example... College QB's are rookies compared to NFL, many with small hands (no making it in the pros) and field conditions are much worse... and there are many more stadiums clustered in the northeast.
All these factors contribute to trouble with a wet ball or wind for college teams.

Dare you to try refute even one of these facts

Again... I am glad to hear that Flying Dutchman will be taking the over when it's blowing 22mph cross-winds and raining 30 minutes before a game !


Care

[Flying Dutchman]

Flying dutchman.... you stated that I "...try to pull your assumptions from Pros into college. Well, I have access to both, Pros from 1994 (a little longer than your db by twice) and college and they are different"

First of all it is not " my study" secondly your wrong on nearly every point, which I guess you enjoy!

For example... College QB's are rookies compared to NFL, many with small hands (no making it in the pros) and field conditions are much worse... and there are many more stadiums clustered in the northeast.
All these factors contribute to trouble with a wet ball or wind for college teams.

Dare you to try refute even one of these facts

Again... I am glad to hear that Flying Dutchman will be taking the over when it's blowing 22mph cross-winds and raining 30 minutes before a game !

Care

If it's not your study, then whose is it? Are you the door mat for some tout?

I've got the dbs, and I'll tell you that college and NFL are strikingly different. You don't have any data, and choose to believe some other clown that they are? Bet 'em up bud, you'll see how long your money lasts.

Oh, and your 20+ mph games? How often does that happen? And check your lines before and after game starts, you might be in for a surprise.

[BetWeather]

If it's not your study, then whose is it? Are you the door mat for some tout?

I've got the dbs, and I'll tell you that college and NFL are strikingly different. You don't have any data, and choose to believe some other clown that they are? Bet 'em up bud, you'll see how long your money lasts.

Oh, and your 20+ mph games? How often does that happen? And check your lines before and after game starts, you might be in for a surprise.

Dutchman I have never been called a doormat for a tout before!

I am just a rookie who is here to learn.
And yes, I found a limited NFL weather study... made a few probably wrong, but interesting assumptions and you come on like Thor the Weather God refuting everything in sight but not sharing any of your weather betting ideas with the rest of us mortals!

So you have a good WX database of past games and lines.

Why not share some of your knowledge with us...

How many rain/snow/wind games do you show in your college and NFL databases?
Out of a total of how many ?

What were the opening vs closing lines in those games ?

Are there more weather spots in college than NFL and why ?

In what way is College weather betting strikingly different than NFL ?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those of you who have not seen the study it is at:
http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

[samdapatriotsfan]

[Flying Dutchman]

Dutchman I have never been called a doormat for a tout before!

I am just a rookie who is here to learn.
And yes, I found a limited NFL weather study... made a few probably wrong, but interesting assumptions and you come on like Thor the Weather God refuting everything in sight but not sharing any of your weather betting ideas with the rest of us mortals!

So you have a good WX database of past games and lines.

Why not share some of your knowledge with us...

How many rain/snow/wind games do you show in your college and NFL databases?
Out of a total of how many ?

What were the opening vs closing lines in those games ?

Are there more weather spots in college than NFL and why ?

In what way is College weather betting strikingly different than NFL ?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those of you who have not seen the study it is at:
http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

I thought I was pretty clear, the market largely discounts what you and your tout buddy claim. Frankly, I think you are him promoting this shit to pull in business. Why else your name and the singleness of purpose here at SBR?

Come on admit it, you have some sort of linkage to these lying flacks, and probably are the guy running this bogus stuff.

[BetWeather]

Yes I have been looking for real weather vs totals line for a long time.
Yes I did get excited when I finally found some info on the line vs. weather.

I know nothing about www.footballplayergrades.com but I just looked at the their home page for the first time, because you psychotically claim I am a tout for them!

Dutch Woman... see where it says their site is a 100% free, and just a hobby fantasy football site !!!!!!!!!!

Please seek immediate treatment!