Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[gv12]

GL this weekend Kroy and thanks for posting your plays, let's have a profitable first week and a profitable year.

[Hayhay]

BOL

[Jakoby87]

Gl again this year!!!

[JoMoney2785]

BOL koy. lets start this season off right!

[Scully]

Bol to you in week #1 Kroyrunner.

[Firefox14]

Just curious as well. What websites are you guys generally throwing your money down on?

[brumbies]

Kroy, shouldn't you wait for a few weeks to let the stats accumulate before making plays? I mean, we haven't even seen these teams play yet. Are you basing your picks on last year's data?

[ochenta y cinco]

Thanks for the picks and GL this weekend. I included them in a SBR 7-team parlay. The play I'm most unsure about is the over in the Pack/Eagles games. Rodgers needs to have time to throw the ball, I hope he doesn't get sacked too much, considering Philly's aggressive blitzing...

GB/PHI Over 48.5 @ -110
CLE/TB Over 37 @ -110
BAL/NYJ Under 36 @ -110
SD ML @ -215
TEN ML @ -255
SF -3 @ -105
GB -3 @ -110

25.00 / 1327.34

[HauntingTheHoly]

• San Fransisco 49ers -3 (+104 @ Pinnacle)

• Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-106)

• Browns/Bucs OVER 37 (-106)

• Ravens/Jets UNDER 35.5 (+100)

Here's a question about ODDS for you. I'm on Bodog and ALL four of these games have worse odds. I got the Pack/Eagles Over at -110, close enough. But the Niner's I got at the standard -109. Do you think -109 as standard ATS is too terrible to play with? Also, my over/under standard is -110. Would you play with that? I played both of these b/c I liked the picks a lot and had picked the Niners on my own already.

I didn't like the other two plays, but just as an exercise take a look at the odds: On Ravens Jets I get an extra half point to 36 (but seems meaningless given scoring increments, right? Or no?) but the Under is -115. How does that value compare to the value you got on your bet?

Now some ADVICE for you, as a Tampa native. Don't bet on the bucs to do ******* ANYTHING for you, ever. lol. But seriously, the Glazers do not give a damn about the bucs and it's perfectly obvious that they don't. They got a chance to win week 1, but if they don't, they could seriously be 0-16. You've been fooled on their offense. I PROMISE you a dismal offensive, and defensive year from these clowns.

[bobbyk1133]

Now some ADVICE for you, as a Tampa native. Don't bet on the bucs to do ******* ANYTHING for you, ever. lol. But seriously, the Glazers do not give a damn about the bucs and it's perfectly obvious that they don't. They got a chance to win week 1, but if they don't, they could seriously be 0-16. You've been fooled on their offense. I PROMISE you a dismal offensive, and defensive year from these clowns.

I think CLE got the most generous spread of the week. I have a strong lean on them, but at the end of the day they are still the Browns. However, they seem to be the lesser of two evils here.

[HauntingTheHoly]

I think CLE got the most generous spread of the week. I have a strong lean on them, but at the end of the day they are still the Browns. However, they seem to be the lesser of two evils here.

Yeah, man. The Browns at +3 probably has some value. I didn't bet it, though. I don't touch Bucs games either way. lol But seriously the game is one giant question mark if you ask me. We're gonna find out just how shitty each team is. Bucs are league worst this year, browns in the bottom four, I think.

[spal2811]

I think the browns +3 is the bet...i like their chances to win outright

[dinheiro]

thanks for your picks! will tail you this week

[bombCanada]

Questions about money management always seem to come up in threads like this so I thought I'd show the thread how I'm managing my numbers while following kroyrunner this season. My starting bankroll is irrelevant because I have multiple things going on. The numbers here are just examples and you could change them to suit your situation. I use Labouchere lines adapted to my own comfort level based on experience. I'll try to explain as I go along. The numbers here are actual numbers from matchbook as of this morning.

Starting line: 10-10-10-10-10-10

SF -3 20.00 to win 20.30
GB/PHI o47.5 21.00 to win 20.00
CLE/TAM o37 20.40 to win 20.00
BAL/NYJ u37 23.20 to win 20.00 (there was a good price on 37 v. 35.5 so I took it)

Best luck everyone and we'll see you all on Tuesday after the Jets win.

[thatswhatHEsaid]

thanks for the picks GL this season

[Hayhay]

@Kroyrunntr89
How many pourcent for each play ?

[Ricki Roma]

god luck buddy, thats right i hope you have (god's luck) LOL

[belvedere86]

10%

[Hayhay]

10%

to risk or to win ?

[belvedere86]

to risk I think

[peeteer]

I like SF 49ers. I am in as well. Good luck this season.

[hitman2010]

BOL Kroys and everyone.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

BOL this season.

[kroyrunner89]

Just for the record, PHI's rush defense is not "clearly superior" to their pass defense. Last season PHI had trouble getting to the QB without blitzing. If anything, the pass D is superior to the rush D at the moment

Not sure I follow this logic, if you have trouble getting to the QB without blitzing that's a negative for the pass defense I would think...regardless BOL this week!

BOL Kroy. Cant Wait until Sunday

I see where you're coming from, I was just curious. I personally am playing your plays for 5% for each game. Personally I have felt like o/u's are hard to cap but I'm with you on this weekend action and I love the SF play.

5% is much more reasonable than my approach haha, that really is what I'd recommend for most people. good luck to you this weekend!

[kroyrunner89]

GL this weekend Kroy and thanks for posting your plays, let's have a profitable first week and a profitable year.

BOL

Gl again this year!!!

BOL koy. lets start this season off right!

Bol to you in week #1 Kroyrunner.

Thanks everyone!

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, shouldn't you wait for a few weeks to let the stats accumulate before making plays? I mean, we haven't even seen these teams play yet. Are you basing your picks on last year's data?

Somewhat, I take where the team was at last year and I try and judge whether they'll be better/worse/similar in a certain category based on offseason moves. I am looking forward to a few weeks down the road when I have stats to help though, that'll really help out.

Thanks for the picks and GL this weekend. I included them in a SBR 7-team parlay. The play I'm most unsure about is the over in the Pack/Eagles games. Rodgers needs to have time to throw the ball, I hope he doesn't get sacked too much, considering Philly's aggressive blitzing... GB/PHI Over 48.5 @ -110 CLE/TB Over 37 @ -110 BAL/NYJ Under 36 @ -110 SD ML @ -215 TEN ML @ -255 SF -3 @ -105 GB -3 @ -110 25.00 / 1327.34

Good luck with your parlay!

Here's a question about ODDS for you. I'm on Bodog and ALL four of these games have worse odds. I got the Pack/Eagles Over at -110, close enough. But the Niner's I got at the standard -109. Do you think -109 as standard ATS is too terrible to play with? Also, my over/under standard is -110. Would you play with that? I played both of these b/c I liked the picks a lot and had picked the Niners on my own already. I didn't like the other two plays, but just as an exercise take a look at the odds: On Ravens Jets I get an extra half point to 36 (but seems meaningless given scoring increments, right? Or no?) but the Under is -115. How does that value compare to the value you got on your bet? Now some ADVICE for you, as a Tampa native. Don't bet on the bucs to do ******* ANYTHING for you, ever. lol. But seriously, the Glazers do not give a damn about the bucs and it's perfectly obvious that they don't. They got a chance to win week 1, but if they don't, they could seriously be 0-16. You've been fooled on their offense. I PROMISE you a dismal offensive, and defensive year from these clowns.

I just listed pinnacle odds because I know it's a reputable book, honestly when it comes down to juice for a pick I'd much rather pay higher juice and get more points in my favor (such as the Jets/Ravens under being at 36 for you). Any odds in the -110 range are very reasonable, we'll likely play the occasional -120 this year too. As for the Bucs, thanks for the advice haha. If they blow it this weekend I'll definitely keep that in mind for the future. I think they'll surprise you this year though, not a playoff team but you'll see signs of progress that's for sure.

I think CLE got the most generous spread of the week. I have a strong lean on them, but at the end of the day they are still the Browns. However, they seem to be the lesser of two evils here.

I almost went with TB -3 as a play too, decided to lay off last minute. I'm higher on the Bucs than the Browns but good luck if you bet the Browns!

Yeah, man. The Browns at +3 probably has some value. I didn't bet it, though. I don't touch Bucs games either way. lol But seriously the game is one giant question mark if you ask me. We're gonna find out just how shitty each team is. Bucs are league worst this year, browns in the bottom four, I think.

I think the Bucs have an outside shot at 8-8 myself, let's just hope the offenses for these teams look much better than the defenses!

I think the browns +3 is the bet...i like their chances to win outright

Good luck!

[kroyrunner89]

thanks for the picks GL this season

@Kroyrunntr89 How many pourcent for each play ?

I personally risk 10% per play to start. This week that means $200 for me, but I'll keep risking $200 up until Week 5 or so. Gives the good/bad breaks a chance to even out and should be a slow steady increase on the bankroll that way. Don't like adjusting to a current 10% every single week because eventually a losing week will happen and it could be a fairly big hit. I recommend about 5% per play if you want to be adjusting weekly.

god luck buddy, thats right i hope you have (god's luck) LOL

I like SF 49ers. I am in as well. Good luck this season.

BOL Kroys and everyone.

BOL this season.

Good luck guys!

[salvador_7764]

aloha,kroyrunner89 which play you feel the strongest if you have to pick 1 of your 4 picks.

[HauntingTheHoly]

I think the Bucs have an outside shot at 8-8 myself, let's just hope the offenses for these teams look much better than the defenses!

Good luck!

Throw 100 SBR points on it? What kinda odds you want?

Edit: Bodog's over/under for bucs this year was 5.5 games, I believe. Too high!

[hitman2010]

aloha,kroyrunner89 which play you feel the strongest if you have to pick 1 of your 4 picks.

nithing is 100%. Strongest can be the weakest in a moment. Go for it and keep the money management! Learn to play and you will win. BOL!

[kroyrunner89]

aloha,kroyrunner89 which play you feel the strongest if you have to pick 1 of your 4 picks.

Well in all honesty I value them all the same, however the one I picked as my best bet in BTP was the 49ers. That play losing would shock me the most out of any.

Throw 100 SBR points on it? What kinda odds you want? Edit: Bodog's over/under for bucs this year was 5.5 games, I believe. Too high!

Haha note that I said "Outside shot"... if you'd like to arrange something on O/U 5.5 I'm listening... Hell I'll even give you O/U 6 if you want the under!

nithing is 100%. Strongest can be the weakest in a moment. Go for it and keep the money management! Learn to play and you will win. BOL!

Well put, I specifically remember one week last year where my favorite two plays lost and the other two won. Strange but given the circumstances I was happy to take a 2-2 week!

[bobbyk1133]

Not sure I follow this logic, if you have trouble getting to the QB without blitzing that's a negative for the pass defense I would think...regardless BOL this week!

My bad Kroy. When I first read it I thought you were talking about their pass rush, not rushing D. Having said that, I still think their pass D is underrated.

BOL to you too!

[bobbyk1133]

I almost went with TB -3 as a play too, decided to lay off last minute. I'm higher on the Bucs than the Browns but good luck if you bet the Browns!

I didn't bet the Browns. lol I'm not that courageous in week 1.

[HauntingTheHoly]

Haha note that I said "Outside shot"... if you'd like to arrange something on O/U 5.5 I'm listening... Hell I'll even give you O/U 6 if you want the under!

How about 100 SBR points, I got the Bucs UNDER 6 wins for the season, for even points. Payment due at end of Week 17. So at the end of week 11 or 12 when the bucs are 0-11, costing you 100 points, you don't have to pay for another six weeks. You're welcome.

[HauntingTheHoly]

How about 100 SBR points, I got the Bucs UNDER 6 wins for the season, for even points. Payment due at end of Week 17. So at the end of week 11 or 12 when the bucs are 0-11, costing you 100 points, you don't have to pay for another six weeks. You're welcome.

I suppose you'll have to respond before kickoff today, despite my confidence. Just wouldn't make sense to give ya a free look. ;-)