Why NFL holdouts rarely work, and what's next for Donald, Mack

Mike Sando
ESPN INSIDER




Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Earl Thomas and Le'Veon Bell have combined for 16 Pro Bowls and 10 All-Pro selections in 21 NFL seasons. Each is younger than 30 and arguably the best player in the league at his position, which would seem to place this quartet in prime position for leveraging concessions from their teams by withholding their services.

As these four superstars' holdouts linger into the preseason, the reality is that even elite veteran NFL players have typically been the ones to blink in these staredowns, especially in recent seasons. Successful holdouts have been scarce in the years since Chris Johnson (2011), Darrelle Revis (2010), Steven Jackson (2008), Larry Johnson (2007) and Deion Branch (2006) held out for sweeter deals -- and got them.

Why do NFL holdouts never seem to work out for the players? And what will happen in the cases of Donald, Mack, Thomas and Bell this time around?
Why holdouts are an uphill fight for players


Donald, Mack, Thomas and Bell have one big problem this summer.

"Teams just do not believe anyone is going to miss regular-season game checks," an NFL team exec said. "Someone might surprise them and do it, but it will never enter into the team's thinking that they are going to do it."

Players typically need their paychecks more than NFL teams need any one player. Players lose 100 percent of their income when they hold out. Teams lose one starter out of 22, and instead of losing money, they save the salary that would have normally been paid out to the player for however long the player misses. Meanwhile, teams' primary revenue streams are locked in for the long term through TV contracts.

Top quarterbacks could presumably hold out and win concessions, but with their salaries reaching $30 million per year and climbing, holdouts aren't really necessary.

Bell and Donald both held out last summer, only to report for the season without securing contracts to their liking. Kam Chancellor tested the Seattle Seahawks before the 2015 season, holding out long enough to miss the first two regular-season games. He, too, reported without a new deal.

"Until you are Kirk Cousins and you play on two franchise tags and you get to free agency, or get free the way [Ndamukong] Suh did, you don't have all the leverage," a prominent agent said. "Take the Rams. They technically have Aaron Donald for three years and $40 million if they want to tag him twice, so they have the leverage."

Why rookies aren't in this discussion


Players must be under contract to hold out, which is why rookie "holdouts" involving unsigned players such as Joey Bosa (2016) and Roquan Smith (2018) weren't holdouts in the same sense. Those were contract disputes. They belong in a separate category.

When holdouts actually work


Chris Johnson, who topped 2,000 yards rushing for Tennessee in 2009, is one of the few relatively recent veteran holdout success stories. He secured a four-year, $53.5 million extension (effectively a new six-year deal) from Tennessee after holding out heading into the 2011 season. A special set of circumstances worked in Johnson's favor at that time, as it has for other recent success stories as well:



  • The Titans were coming out of the lockout with a first-time head coach (Mike Munchak) and two new quarterbacks (Matt Hasselbeck and rookie Jake Locker). The team's front office was under pressure to win that season, and Johnson was the focal point of the offense after rushing for 3,370 yards and 25 touchdowns over the previous two seasons combined.


  • Revis' 2010 deal with the Jets got done after team owner Woody Johnson and coach Rex Ryan flew to Florida for a meeting with Revis and former NFL defensive lineman Sean Gilbert, who once sat out a full season during a holdout. Revis' mother and uncle also attended the summit. If the owner and head coach are willing to meet the player on the player's turf, there's probably a good chance the player will get what he wants. Advantage, Revis.


  • Larry Johnson, like Chris Johnson, represented an outsized portion of his team's offense, having set an NFL record the previous season with 416 carries. Those two, along with Jackson, were part of a golden age for running backs. From 2003 to 2007, starters at the position carried at least 20 times in more than 40 percent of starts. The rate has fallen below 25 percent over the past five seasons.


"You have to know the teams you are dealing with, the owners, all that stuff," an agent said.

Donald vs. Mack: Dez and Demaryius revisited?


Donald and Mack both have a shot at becoming the highest-paid defensive player in the league. Could this be a case of two elite players and the competing agencies that represent them waiting for the other side to go first, on the theory that whichever player signs second would stand as the highest-paid defensive player in the league? Bragging rights can seem important when it comes time for agents to recruit.

"I think the Raiders and Rams are running into the same problem Denver and Dallas ran into [in 2015] when Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant were looking to become the highest-paid receiver," an exec said. "You had rival agencies representing them. It wasn't until the two firms merged that deals got done -- for exactly the same amount."

Those five-year, $70 million deals got done on July 15 of that year, before training camps got going, which is why those signings don't qualify on our list of successful holdouts.

"Once the agencies joined up, all of a sudden they both were willing to take the exact same deal," the exec said.

Donald could have more incentive than Mack to get a deal done this offseason. He's scheduled to earn $6.9 million in 2018 after collecting $10.2 million to this point in his career. Mack is set to earn $13.8 million this season after collecting $18.7 million previously.

"Donald has maintained a higher level of performance over all four years than Mack has, so he can say he should be the top-paid guy," the exec said. "But the Rams know they could franchise Donald twice and let him walk after three years, so they have leverage. The Raiders can say Mack doesn't deserve to be above Von Miller, and Mack can say, 'Fine, I'm already making [almost] $14 million, so I'm not losing as much.'"

What happens next: An agent predicts


A veteran agent with an extensive client list thought Donald would sign an extension with the Rams before the season. He thought Mack would play the 2018 season on his current deal, Thomas would hold out into the season and Bell would either play on the franchise tag again or sign an extension for an amount similar to what has already been on the table.

Here's what the agent had to say on all four:

On Donald: "My guess is Donald gets done in the next couple weeks. There is no way this kid is going to turn down that kind of money again just to keep waiting."

On Mack: "I don't think Mack gets done. He did not light the league on fire last year, so you wonder if the Raiders are reticent to pay him that kind of money, and because he was a top-10 pick in the draft, his salary is higher than what Donald is getting."

On Thomas: "I think Earl ends up holding out 'til Week 7 or 8 and then plays the year out and goes. Seattle wants to start fresh. They got no value paying some of these other older guys. And then you just don't get anywhere holding out with [owner] Paul Allen."

On Bell: "I don't see Bell getting more than what was offered -- roughly $15 million per year."

An unpredictable business


An exec said he thought Bell's expectations were "totally unrealistic" until the Rams' Todd Gurley commanded a four-year, $57.5 million extension with two years remaining on his rookie deal. Unlike the agent quoted above, this exec also wondered whether the commitment to Gurley signaled that the Rams might be prepared to take a year-to-year approach with Donald.

These things can be difficult to figure.

"The business of football is based largely on a lot of circumstances coming together," another exec said. "Where is my coach's contract? How bad do we need to win? What is the GM situation? You would like to think it's just a market at work, but in this world, somebody can say one player is going to take us to the Super Bowl. It might be an idiotic thought, but if one guy has it, boom, that is the contract that the world knows."