[ShowMeDaMoney]

if my memory serves me correct... Detroit could have easily covered in the last game they played against NO despite all the penalties and costly errors, correct? Seems to me Detroit backers were in the game late in the 4th...

[rockhardfister]

You're on crystal meth.....Detroit went all out to beat GBs scrubs and couldn't get it done. They have no shot this weekend. All the dumba$$ penalties on Detroit vs the Saints last time was no fluke....they do the same $hit every weekend just like the Raiders. A talented but undisciplined & poorly coached team unlike the Saints. They were down 38-34 at their own 7 on Sunday with 5:01 left and PASSED EVERY PLAY and scored with 2:39 left. Why not run on every 1st down and eat some clock...Flynn was kicking their a$$ all day long and they were in 4 down mode anyway. GBs 3rd string D wasn't stopping Stafford so they could've scored as slow or fast as they wanted. $hit coaching and it gets them blown out this weekend. You don't go shotgun on 2nd/2 like Detroit and throw 50x to beat the Saints. They own those kind of flag football games...ESP AT HOME!!

Then take the Saints dude! Im only half serious about the ML. I may do a small Lion, Falcon, Bengal ML Par. I like the 11.5 though.Here me now, believe me later. Detroit was a 7.5 point dog last time and lost 31-17. They moved the ball at will the whole game and will do it again.They had the ball at midfield with 55 seconds left and chose to run the clock out. God knows why they didn't go for the back door cover.

[rockhardfister]

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

With that being said I think the Saints will blowout this overrated Lions team. But re-read what I first said...

Don't go crazy betting on these playoffs.

Absolutely - people are only looking at this from the Lions perspective of losing to the Packers. How about from the Saints perspective. The Saints finish 13-3 and dont get a bye? How discouraging is that...what a kick in the nuts. Now they have to go beat the same team they just beat a month ago in the same place...again! Saints=Pressure / Lions=No Pressure

[billysink]

It's not the same situation.N.O. was beat up road favorite that seattle (who won there way into the playoffs)jumped on.N.O.--This year N.O. is the healthy home favorite & Detroit (as much Billy claims they'll be prepared)are not exactly playing inspired ball.

Did that game against San Diego not look like inspired ball. Or are you still stuck on that meaningless contest from Sunday.

And healthy is not what I would call that linebacker crew. Casillas is dinged up, Vilma missed last week and has not made it through a full practice and Will Herring just went on IR. Stating Safety Malcolm Jenkins missed last week and has also not yet fully practiced. Wideouts Lance Moore and Robert Meachum are not at full speed.

Everyone is available for the Lions this week. Including Louis Delmas and Nick Fairley. Calvin Johnson and Fairley did not practice in full today to rest nagging injuries.

[freakydave]

Did that game against San Diego not look like inspired ball. Or are you still stuck on that meaningless contest from Sunday. And healthy is not what I would call that linebacker crew. Casillas is dinged up, Vilma missed last week and has not made it through a full practice and Will Herring just went on IR. Everyone is available for the Lions this week. Including Louis Delmas and Nick Fairley.

Det are 4-4 in their last 8 (2nd half) all wins vs non playoff teams they are inspired all right.Go ahead & discount the game on sunday at your own peril.Hey Billy why are you waiting for a spread over 11?

[freakydave]

Absolutely - people are only looking at this from the Lions perspective of losing to the Packers. How about from the Saints perspective. The Saints finish 13-3 and dont get a bye? How discouraging is that...what a kick in the nuts. Now they have to go beat the same team they just beat a month ago in the same place...again! Saints=Pressure / Lions=No Pressure

So the 13-3 saints playing at home have all the pressure & DET has none?

[billysink]

I will take as much as the public gives. Smart wagering. I am hoping for 13 but it is not looking promising.


Discount the game on Sunday? I laughed when I watched some of it knowing what I had been told about the week's practice leading up to it.

Flag football at its finest.

Preparation is everything in this game. When you don't do any that is what you get. Flag Football.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Detroit is supposed to lose... it will be one of the bigger upsets in recent NFL Playoff history if they win. Yes, they have zero pressure on them. The Saints do, and for good reason.

People are so quick to forget Detroit could have easily covered last time around against New Orleans. Vegas are not a bunch of morons - the line is set to entice even action. Everyone and their brother loves the Saints spread, but that doesn't mean it's a slam dunk.

[billysink]

So the 13-3 saints playing at home have all the pressure & DET has none?

I do not think the Saints are the kind of team that is going to show pressure, especially not the QB.

[billysink]

Det are 4-4 in their last 8 (2nd half) all wins vs non playoff teams they are inspired all right.Go ahead & discount the game on sunday at your own peril.Hey Billy why are you waiting for a spread over 11?

Dude seriously. Have you paid a lot of attention to the Lions this year. They played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and overcame a ton of injuries to get where they are. Sure they have lacked discipline at times and cost themselves dearly for it.

They are as talented as anyone across the board and have grown a lot by their mistakes. That game against San Diego showed me everything I need to know about the Lions. And now they finally get everyone back.

I do not give them much of a chance to win but I certainly don't think it is the blowout you make it to be.

[freakydave]

Dude seriously. Have you paid a lot of attention to the Lions this year. They played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and overcame a ton of injuries to get where they are. Sure they have lacked discipline at times and cost themselves dearly for it. They are as talented as anyone across the board and have grown a lot by their mistakes. That game against San Diego showed me everything I need to know about the Lions. And now they finally get everyone back. I do not give them much of a chance to win but I certainly don't think it is the blowout you make it to be.

If N.O. was a DD fav in Det I'd be with you but at home the saints play very well.
In Det's last 6 games they gave up less than 27 pts once(a home game3-3 over all)scored more than 27 4 times Look at the teams they amassed these numbers against & it doesn't bode well for Det.
Since when is a 11pt win a blowout?
Now look at N.O. they have won 8 in row going in & score in the 40's in 4 out of last 6 while giving up more than 20 1 time.

As you know Billy I use a 6 week MA PF & PA to estimate the line & I remove the high & low on both sides.Which means the GB game is not counted in Det's est score.I still have N.O. covering 10.5

[billysink]

If N.O. was a DD fav in Det I'd be with you but at home the saints play very well.
In Det's last 6 games they gave up less than 27 pts once(a home game3-3 over all)scored more than 27 4 times Look at the teams they amassed these numbers against & it doesn't bode well for Det.
Since when is a 11pt win a blowout?
Now look at N.O. they have won 8 in row going in & score in the 40's in 4 out of last 6 while giving up more than 20 1 time.

As you know Billy I use a 6 week MA PF & PA to estimate the line & I remove the high & low on both sides.Which means the GB game is not counted in Det's est score.I still have N.O. covering 10.5

Good Luck Dave, if that is the stuff that has given you an 18-4 record of late, I wouldn't put too much stalk in anything anyone had to say either. Different methodology than mine but 18-4 is hard to argue with.

Should be a good one.

[HotRush]

I like the Saints as well to cover,

[4TH AND STUPID]

delmas, williams, and berry will make a HUGE impact on the defense with their return.


fairley dominated the new orleans offensive line until he got hurt last game, and suh will bring a major additional factor to this game


the lions also have playoff experienced players like tully (former defensive captain of titans) and kvb to help get the defense in the right frame of mind for this big game.


i think the saints will NOT be able to move the ball downfield the way theyre used to because the lions will get to brees and disrupt him. they know they have to do this in order to win and im confident with their key position defensive players back and the benefit of a full roster this time around, it will make for a great contest.


the lions also play in a dome and are no strangers to putting up points.



like i said, this game is going to shock a lot of people on this board. too many people think that this is atlanta vs new orleans part 2.


cant wait to see the look on their faces when this game comes down to the final drive...

[ShowMeDaMoney]

How can New Orleans be a lock when Detroit nearly covered 7.5 last time they played?

[freakydave]

How can New Orleans be a lock when Detroit nearly covered 7.5 last time they played?

Nearly covered? is that some cousin of almost won.The Saints covered 7.5 & as my good friend used to say the number is the number you either cover or you don't.

[aman86]

NO lost last year to SEA???!!!! Ha, lions at 10+ is t he gif t of a lif t ime !!!!

[freakydave]

NO lost last year to SEA???!!!! Ha, lions at 10+ is t he gif t of a lif t ime !!!!

Yes clearly it's the exact same situationDD home fav = DD road fav
very good class dismissed.
Is it possible Det covers ? YES but Det's big weakness is vs the run giving up 5.0 yds/carry N.O is 4th in the league piling up 4.8 yds/carry which will create alot of play action opportunities for N.O. & detroit's offence won't be able to hang 41 on N.O. the way they did on gb in a losing effort.Also N.O. won't be playing soft zone paas defence the way SD did a couple of weeks ago.It'll be man to man.
Check out pete prisco's article on cbssportsline.com he explains how N.O. will play Det.

[Mr Handicapable]

That was me with the 18-4 run on here and it was mostly with NFL props with a couple of CFB props too. As for this one...I wouldn't be that shocked to see Detroit +11 or more backdoor the Saints here. Stafford is very very good considering he has to carry 100% of the load and Calvin Johnson/Pettigrew are as good as it gets. I wouldn't base this one on that last NO/Detroit game though.....the Saints were kind of flat in that one imo and I've seen most of their games this year.

[mv09]

Saints -10 is as square as it gets.
----

I posted this in the other thread.

Matt Stafford is 23 years old and just had a better season in terms of yards and TDs this year than Peyton Manning has had in his entire 13 season career (minus the 'then record' 49 TD season).

Would you ever give Peyton Manning 10+ points in an NFL Playoff game at any point of his career?

He's thrown for an NFL high 1500+ yards in his last 4 games with 15 TDs and 3 INTs.
He's better BETTER than Brees in the past month.

Saints have a horrible pass defense.
They do not cause turnovers.
Saints CAN get burned and 10 points is WAY too much.

49ers are a 50/50 in my book to face the Lions next week.

[thefonzo]

Saints -10 is as square as it gets.
----

I posted this in the other thread.

Matt Stafford is 23 years old and just had a better season in terms of yards and TDs this year than Peyton Manning has had in his entire 13 season career (minus the 'then record' 49 TD season).

Would you ever give Peyton Manning 10+ points in an NFL Playoff game at any point of his career?

He's thrown for an NFL high 1500+ yards in his last 4 games with 15 TDs and 3 INTs.
He's better BETTER than Brees in the past month.

Saints have a horrible pass defense.
They do not cause turnovers.
Saints CAN get burned and 10 points is WAY too much.

49ers are a 50/50 in my book to face the Lions next week.

1. Stafford's stats are better than Brees because they never run the ball

2. There is zero chance of Detroit playing San Fran next week. Just think for a moment

3. So you would give someone even odds in straight up bet against a 13-3 team who was 8-0 at home?

I totally agree that a lot of people are blindly assuming blowout, but you are almost the same in the other direction

[mv09]

1. Stafford's stats are better than Brees because they never run the ball

2. There is zero chance of Detroit playing San Fran next week. Just think for a moment

3. So you would give someone even odds in straight up bet against a 13-3 team who was 8-0 at home?

I totally agree that a lot of people are blindly assuming blowout, but you are almost the same in the other direction

Wrong.

1. Lions ran the ball 410 times (23rd). Saints ran the ball 351 times. (DEAD LAST in the NFL)



2. Zero chance? Lions were 2 missed kicks from it being a 1 pt game in the 4th quarter. Those missed kicks set up the Saints nicely to score.

If my memory serves me right, the Lions were without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Suh who left early in that game.

Everyone looks at the Saints destroying the Lions defense factor and that's certainly a possibility, but the Lions destroying the Saints D has almost an equal chance of happening. The Lions defense are 3rd in causing turnovers. The Saints are 28th. Their both in the bottom 10 in pass defenses. Everybody is underrating the Matt Stafford and the Lions offense.

Matt Stafford had one of the best seasons ever for a QB and he didn't even make the Pro Bowl. The Saints at home scares me but 10 points is laughable! It's going to be close.



3. Obviously not. Saints are favored and rightfully so, but after analyzing this game, it's going to be a tossup of a game.

*For the record, I am a Cowboys fan.

[BeerBottlez]

Empty your savings account, mortgage your home, and pawn your wives jewelry including her wedding ring then throw it all on the Detroit ML.

[thefonzo]

Yes San Fran has ZERO chance of playing detroit...

If detroit wins they plays green bay......I didn't know being a smartass was so difficult

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Nearly covered? is that some cousin of almost won.The Saints covered 7.5 & as my good friend used to say the number is the number you either cover or you don't.

I'll take Detroit being given more points than last meeting in a game that could have gone either way. You're right... the number is the number but what I'm saying is that -11 is no slam dunk at all. Detroit could have covered 7.5 last time around, the back door was in order... they simply ran out of time when driving down field. This time around they are being given 3.5 extra points. I'm not saying they definitely cover, but before unloading your bank roll on NO, just understand that "the number is the number" for a reason. NO is about 10.5 points better than Detroit. The books aren't handing anyone a gift in this game, despite what many of you may think.

[mv09]

Yes San Fran has ZERO chance of playing detroit...

If detroit wins they plays green bay......I didn't know being a smartass was so difficult

My mistake, It was phrased in the sense of the discussion as Detroit has no chance to win, however.

[freakydave]

I'll take Detroit being given more points than last meeting in a game that could have gone either way. You're right... the number is the number but what I'm saying is that -11 is no slam dunk at all. Detroit could have covered 7.5 last time around, the back door was in order... they simply ran out of time when driving down field. This time around they are being given 3.5 extra points. I'm not saying they definitely cover, but before unloading your bank roll on NO, just understand that "the number is the number" for a reason. NO is about 10.5 points better than Detroit. The books aren't handing anyone a gift in this game, despite what many of you may think.

Your right about this it isn't a gift for either side.

[freakydave]

Wrong. 1. Lions ran the ball 410 times (23rd). Saints ran the ball 351 times. (DEAD LAST in the NFL) 2. Zero chance? Lions were 2 missed kicks from it being a 1 pt game in the 4th quarter. Those missed kicks set up the Saints nicely to score. If my memory serves me right, the Lions were without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Suh who left early in that game. Everyone looks at the Saints destroying the Lions defense factor and that's certainly a possibility, but the Lions destroying the Saints D has almost an equal chance of happening. The Lions defense are 3rd in causing turnovers. The Saints are 28th. Their both in the bottom 10 in pass defenses. Everybody is underrating the Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Matt Stafford had one of the best seasons ever for a QB and he didn't even make the Pro Bowl. The Saints at home scares me but 10 points is laughable! It's going to be close. 3. Obviously not. Saints are favored and rightfully so, but after analyzing this game, it's going to be a tossup of a game. *For the record, I am a Cowboys fan.

1) it's ypc that matter not total yardage or number of attempts-I realize your constructing an argument to show Stafford> brees-but the QB position isn't the difference in the game-It's the 4th best rushing attack 4.8/ypc vs the one of the worst run defences at 5.0/ypc that will setup NO passing attack.
2) Oh no not Delmas,Houston & Suh yeah there Defence will be a little better than it was on Sun vs GB but your talking like all of sudden they'll be the shut down kings.Let's face it Det's defence wasn't that good when they were healthy.
3) Well...

[thefonzo]

Last post by me... NO may be square, but backing a young, undisciplined team making its first playoff appearance, on the road, primetime, against a 13-3 team, isn't exactly sharp.

[mv09]

1) it's ypc that matter not total yardage or number of attempts-I realize your constructing an argument to show Stafford> brees-but the QB position isn't the difference in the game-It's the 4th best rushing attack 4.8/ypc vs the one of the worst run defences at 5.0/ypc that will setup NO passing attack.
2) Oh no not Delmas,Houston & Suh yeah there Defence will be a little better than it was on Sun vs GB but your talking like all of sudden they'll be the shut down kings.Let's face it Det's defence wasn't that good when they were healthy.
3) Well...

To your first point.. Absolutely not. Brees > Stafford not even close, especially at home. My argument is more along the lines that people don't realize just how good Stafford is, how well he has performed in the last month, and how explosive they can be especially on turf.

And your second, I never said the Lions would shut down the Saints. If the lions have any chance to beat the Saints it will be via a shootout, not a defensive struggle. Saints are a machine at home and you have to pressure Brees and cause him to turn the ball over - two things the Lions do extremely well. A lot of sharps are on Saints -10.5 which shocks me personally. Saints -10.5 is not a terrible play. I could see why people would think the Saints would steamroll the Lions, but it's just my personal analysis of the game that leads me to believe that it will be closer than people think with potential for an upset.

And I mentioned I am a Cowboys fan to eliminate any potential thoughts that I may have a bias.

[mv09]

Its a tossup with the Lions leading. Can't say I didn't warn you

[thefonzo]

Its a tossup with the Lions leading. Can't say I didn't warn you

Kudos, good analysis.

[BettingWizard]

[thefonzo]

Looks like Sean payton pulled his head out of his ass during halftime ..

Shootout to commence?

[thefonzo]

How many points you want to bet that the Saints don't score 50 on the Lions?

The line won't be 14 either unless a big injury occurs.

Finally, a classy move by the saints offense.

I expected a big second half, but not quite that big.

ZERO PUNTS