Hard to imagine that Miami just won the NBA title a month ago, and baseball is knee deep in pennant races and we have football less than a week away already.
After a year in 2005 that saw numerous favorites cover with big numbers in the NFL, week in and week out, and offshore books and Vegas books losing to the public, it all starts over again with the opening game in the NFL preseason with Oakland and Philly kicking if off August 6th.
My take on the NFL preseason has always been guarded optimism. I have sat at many round table with other big named handicappers discussing the pros and cons of the preseason, some of us love it, and some of us avoid it. I am in the middle on the issue, but do realize the potential for profit is there, but your discipline in doing your homework, and knowing the tendencies of particular coaches heading into the preseason, based on the performance of his squad in the previous year has to be taken into account.
Lets take a look at 2 factors that make up a great deal of emphasis I put on handicapping the NFL preseason that have proven profitable over the test of time as part of the equation of handicapping the NFL in August. The number one thing I look for is Quarterback depth, and playing rotations, bar none. Here are a few of the teams I have looked at for 2006 and red flagged, that have the ability to score points in meaningless preseason games that give them an edge in any contest, based on talent at the helm. These are listed in no particular order other than to say in my mind that the Eagles have a solid rotation of talented and capable guys and should fare well in the preseason in the early games.
Chicago Bears - With a healthy Rex Grossman, he will get plenty of playing time in the preseason, and with a solid 1-2 punch at back-up here with Kyle Orton and Brian Gresie, both with starting experience, and they way Chicago plays defense in general, look for the Bears to be formidable in the preseason with this rotation in any form.
New York Jets - With Chad Pennington slated to play, but not much in the preseason, look for ex-Redskin and capable Pat Ramsey and Brooks Bollinger to see plenty of action behind a deep offensive line. The Jets should be able to put up some points with deep RB positions as well.
Philadelphia Eagles - With Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia and Koy Dettmer, you have a very strong and experienced starting 3 rotation here, I would not be surprised to see ex-Hawaii star Tommy Chang make some unusual plays in the preseason either, and Philly also has a stable of RB's that are deep.
Tampa Bay - Jon Gruden loves to win anytime he is coaching, but his QB rotation is solid this year with 3 guys all having starting NFL experience. Chris Simms will get plenty of snaps, Jay Fiedler and Tim Rattay also will see considerable playing time this preseason as well. All are capable enough of making some big plays, and Rattay may see allot of action behind a 2nd string line that still will be better than any OL he had at San Fran.
St. Louis Rams - Look for a strong rotation with a deep WR unit here with Marc Bulger, Jeff Smoker and Gus Frerotte in an established system that is wide open and not conservative in any way, and the Rams will put up points, so the totals on the over may come into play depending on who they are playing as well.
Secondly, you look for coaches who like to win in the preseason, or coaches who are new that want to instill a winning attitude up front with their team. Dennis Green for Arizona comes to mind as he is building an offense and has a running back in James form the Colts this year as he looks to improve the Cards offensive output, as well as QB Matt Leinart from USC, who will get some serious playing time. This team has the potential with their WR's to put up some serious numbers in 2006, and I think it might start in the preseason. Green is a stellar 6-1 SU as the Cards coach in the preseason and over 62% SU lifetime as an NFL head coach.
Guys like John Fox for the Panthers, Jon Gruden for the Buc's, and Jack Del Rio for the Jags, Dennis Green as mentioned, and Lovie Smith for the Bears are guys to bet on the preseason as far as emphasizing wins and playing tough defense throughout the game. New coaches to the NFL in the head position are looking for team chemistry and starting rotations and unless I know something from a local sportswriter as far as a game plan that is not public, I tend to stay away from them.
Teams that are weak in depth at QB like Houston, Dallas, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami, and the Colts to name a few, will not play their star player more than 2 quarters until the final pre-season game in a dress rehearsal before their first game. Look for Atlanta to also shelf Mike Vick for the most part until the latter stages of the preseason as well. Many times coaches play for the final game with most their starters in tact and look for a win going into the regular season the following week. The Colts are 3-1 ATS the last 4 years and Denver is 6-1 ATS their last 7 years in their final games.
All in all, pick and choose your spots wisely with handicapping advice that is sound and experienced. Over my 15 years of capping the preseason, I limit my plays to sound fundamental handicapping methods that have proven a profit, and while my plays are limited to 7 or 8 games in August and early September, before the regular season begins, I find more profit by using the methods and trends explained in this article and a few other secrets that prove that less is more, and there is profit in the NFL preseason.
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NFL Preseason Tidbits To Know And Profit From
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