Saints (+1.5, +1, ML, -1.5, -2.5, -3) at Atlanta is the biggest play of my career

[RMStanley]

I essentially have 3/4 of a season's bankroll riding on this game. I started placing the wagers back in July when the Saints were +1.5 and I had identified it as an insane value. It's obviously emerged as the most mobile line of Week 1 as the hype train for New Orleans built up (Cooks, Byrd, Saints' rushing attack, etc.) and as the Falcons suffered two key injuries (Weatherspoon and Baker) and Mike Smith was revealed as an uninspiring beta male on "Hard Knocks".

Meanwhile, Sean Payton is alpha as frick and makes his guys want to run through a brick wall.

I will flat out state that there is no way Atlanta wins this game unless they are +2 or better on turnover margin. It could happen as Brees has laid some eggs in surprising spots through his career... but it only happens once or twice a season and has never occurred in Week 1. Payton seems absolutely committed to sticking with his deep stable of RB's this season and so I'd be shocked if he falls into an Andy Reid-esque pass happy attack that sometimes hurts the Saints.

I don't have a ton of new insight from what you can now find with a random google search, and I've already posted my thoughts on this game (search my post history if interested) in relatively good detail.



Alpha as hell.

[intriguing]

Your mad dumb

[WWCD]

BOL.

I never would have the balls to bet that much of my bankroll on 1 game.

[innovation]

saints are the cheapest road fave of the weekend

home doggie Moneyline this spot

[suicidekings]

The problem with Week 1 plays is that you have literally months to talk yourself into a play being the right side. There's good value picks on the board this week, but this game is not one of them.

[slacker00]

The problem with Week 1 plays is that you have literally months to talk yourself into a play being the right side. There's good value picks on the board this week, but this game is not one of them.

After seeing what happened on Thursday, the better coach seems to have a big edge week 1.

[adila1401]

Either take Falcons or stay away from this one..Falcons are my biggest bet this week..Last year's opener AT saints..Saints NEVER lose at home and they barely won on a last second drop by Steven Jackson against the Falcons when they were healthy...Falcons at home are tough to beat plus coming from a disappointing last season fully healthy now, I think they might be fired up.

[slacker00]

Either take Falcons or stay away from this one..Falcons are my biggest bet this week..Last year's opener AT saints..Saints NEVER lose at home and they barely won on a last second drop by Steven Jackson against the Falcons when they were healthy...Falcons at home are tough to beat plus coming from a disappointing last season fully healthy now, I think they might be fired up.

Compare last year's Falcons week 1 lineup versus this year. It's a totally different team. Lots of question marks.

[SharpAngles]

After seeing what happened on Thursday, the better coach seems to have a big edge week 1.

Not to mention better QB TE and D.

Im not a fan of multiple bets on a single game like this but in this case you should be safe.

[rockhardfister]

Compare last year's Falcons week 1 lineup versus this year. It's a totally different team. Lots of question marks.

Your right it is a different team...for the better.

Jake Matthews better LT than Sam Baker
Lamar Holmes is in better shape in second year as right tackle
John Asamoah - All Pro RT solidifying interior

Devon Hester - X factor in the slot - No more slow ass Tony G

Defensive line is huge now with DE Tyson Jackson and DT Paul Soliai

Give Matt Ryan time at Home and he is automatic.

[pavyracer]

Falcons win. Home dogs too.

[slacker00]

Your right it is a different team...for the better.

Jake Matthews better LT than Sam Baker
Lamar Holmes is in better shape in second year as right tackle
John Asamoah - All Pro RT solidifying interior

Devon Hester - X factor in the slot - No more slow ass Tony G

Defensive line is huge now with DE Tyson Jackson and DT Paul Soliai

Give Matt Ryan time at Home and he is automatic.

Devon Hester is no X factor anymore. Good luck with a rookie LT. The rest are role players. Brees>Ryan.

[thechaoz]

Your mad dumb

And by "your" you mean you're. Lol

[tien2262]

Fuking stupid

I got a lot money on falcons tomorrow

[2daBank]

Your right it is a different team...for the better.

Jake Matthews better LT than Sam Baker
Lamar Holmes is in better shape in second year as right tackle
John Asamoah - All Pro RT solidifying interior

Devon Hester - X factor in the slot - No more slow ass Tony G

Defensive line is huge now with DE Tyson Jackson and DT Paul Soliai

Give Matt Ryan time at Home and he is automatic.

i was kinda with ya all the way till you called hester a factor anywhere but special teams. this the same hester from chi right? cmon man you come off way to homerish if you believe that.. had to come back and say more when i realized you just not only called a dude that has never done shit at wr a factor but now he a upgrade over the greatest pass catching te probably ever? holy fukkin shit you gotta be joking..

as good as ryan has been at home aints have still beat him like what, 4 of last 5 (or some shit) in atl..

saints have made some really good improvements as well. hard to find a better set of safeties than the pair that now resides in their defensive backfield. cooks fits their system well and is more dangerous than sproles in the open field. another year with ryan as dc most likely means a way more opportunistic defense. not like n.o. was sitting around watching teams pass them by.

[chaka]

duplicate post

[chaka]

brees lost an early home game to wash couple yrs back as 8.5 favs. 40-32 i think was rg 3 first game.

[Springhettios]

To me this game is a toss up.

[rockhardfister]

i was kinda with ya all the way till you called hester a factor anywhere but special teams. this the same hester from chi right? cmon man you come off way to homerish if you believe that.. had to come back and say more when i realized you just not only called a dude that has never done shit at wr a factor but now he a upgrade over the greatest pass catching te probably ever? holy fukkin shit you gotta be joking..

as good as ryan has been at home aints have still beat him like what, 4 of last 5 (or some shit) in atl..

saints have made some really good improvements as well. hard to find a better set of safeties than the pair that now resides in their defensive backfield. cooks fits their system well and is more dangerous than sproles in the open field. another year with ryan as dc most likely means a way more opportunistic defense. not like n.o. was sitting around watching teams pass them by.

I am a homer but i'm not joking. Im just telling you what I've seen. Its a known fact that Tony G couldn't block for shit and now they have Bear Pascoe basically acting as another Tackle. Matt will have time this year. They have had to change thier whole offensive philosophy. Will it work? probably with all the new rules benefiting the offense. Julio and Roddy on the outside opened up the middle for Hester and Douglas in the slot during the 3rd pre-season game when ATL went no huddles with 4WR formation for basically 2 QTRs. Hester was the beneficiary. I was surprised also. Anyway, I guess we will know more tomorrow man. Not like I haven't been wrong before. You want to hear crazy? watch what happens if ATL gives Antone Smith a chance to carry the rock this year.

[2daBank]

I am a homer but i'm not joking. Im just telling you what I've seen. Its a known fact that Tony G couldn't block for shit and now they have Bear Pascoe basically acting as another Tackle. Matt will have time this year. They have had to change thier whole offensive philosophy. Will it work? probably with all the new rules benefiting the offense. Julio and Roddy on the outside opened up the middle for Hester and Douglas in the slot during the 3rd pre-season game when ATL went no huddles with 4WR formation for basically 2 QTRs. Hester was the beneficiary. I was surprised also. Anyway, I guess we will know more tomorrow man. Not like I haven't been wrong before. You want to hear crazy? watch what happens if ATL gives Antone Smith a chance to carry the rock this year.

fuk antone smith, i have freeman stored on my bench for when sjax either breaks down or they realize his plodding ass doesnt fit the offense.. speaking of rbs that one of my biggest problems with atl at the moment, of coarse julio a fukkin stud, white didnt appear any slower when he was healthy at the end of the year, ryan really good not arguing any of that i think atl bounces back to being in contention but i think against this saints defense you have to attack them on the ground and not sure atl can or will?

ill buy douglas being good in the slot ive seen him do it, hester not a chance, if im wrong i will cause id never believe it and wouldnt have the balls to even say it based off a preseason gm when there years of evidence to suggest otherwise.

[Armbar99]

I also realy like this Saints team against the Falcons. Will probably be my biggest on this sundays card. But week 1 ??, on the road ?? can't agree with the bet size here. but its none of my buziness. Best of luck bud

[bob6199]

Your right it is a different team...for the better.

Jake Matthews better LT than Sam Baker
Lamar Holmes is in better shape in second year as right tackle
John Asamoah - All Pro RT solidifying interior

Devon Hester - X factor in the slot - No more slow ass Tony G

Defensive line is huge now with DE Tyson Jackson and DT Paul Soliai

Give Matt Ryan time at Home and he is automatic.

Defensive line still sucks and their D will get torched, they will not win this game.

[KRIT]

After reading this thread, makes me want to bet ATL. I've been on the fence with them all week. I'm just not sure their defense can do anything. I got quite a few Falcons scattered across my 3 leagues (Sjax, Ryan, Julio, Roddy), so hoping ATL's offense at least shows up.

I do agree with Bank, ATL needs to try to at least establish some kind of running game. They actually had a lot of success running the ball at home last year against Saints.

[Luckycharms2012]

I like this play but the Saints have ****** me so many times. The Saints are a shady team. They'll probably win by 1 or lose the game outright. I'm looking to make one big play for the 1pm games but not the Saints. GL RMStanley, i'll probably regret not jumping on this pick.

[2daBank]

After reading this thread, makes me want to bet ATL. I've been on the fence with them all week. I'm just not sure their defense can do anything. I got quite a few Falcons scattered across my 3 leagues (Sjax, Ryan, Julio, Roddy), so hoping ATL's offense at least shows up.

I do agree with Bank, ATL needs to try to at least establish some kind of running game. They actually had a lot of success running the ball at home last year against Saints.

figured i was passing here but when i was talkin to nc realized i was wasting time looking at a side in this gm. think the under where i wanna be, until nc brought up it kinda slipped my mind that there were some things i like about playing under in this matchup.

[broadway6]

Your right it is a different team...for the better.

Jake Matthews better LT than Sam Baker
Lamar Holmes is in better shape in second year as right tackle
John Asamoah - All Pro RT solidifying interior

Devon Hester - X factor in the slot - No more slow ass Tony G

Defensive line is huge now with DE Tyson Jackson and DT Paul Soliai

Give Matt Ryan time at Home and he is automatic.

no more more slow ads Tony G? Lol guy scored 12 Tds last year. Hester won't score 6 this year.

[2daBank]

no more more slow ads Tony G? Lol guy scored 12 Tds last year. Hester won't score 6 this year.

just receptions? anyone liking hester to catch tds im offering hester ov 1.5 receiving tds ev

[rockhardfister]

Defensive line still sucks and their D will get torched, they will not win this game.

As a Falcons fan I expect Sean Payton to walk in like Leonidas into the Dome and ask us what our profession is before mauling us with football players...thats just from 32 years of supporting a losing team.

Here is the deal with the defense. They got bigger and stronger with 2x NT Soliai, DE T. Jackson and NT Hageman in 2nd rd. They are now built to stop the run very well. The pass rush is what the problem is right now...there are a lot of young DE with talent but nobody scaring anyone. LBs are young and fast but inexperienced. Secondary is the Falcons strength with Trufant and Alford on the corners. Nickel CB is Mclain and he could start somewhere else. SS is Willy Mo but FS is also a question mark. BLUF: If Falcons cant generate any pass rush, then I expect Brees and company to put up a lot of points. I also expect ATL to put up a lot. Im on the OVER. These games are always close in ATL, usually coming down to the last play. GL

[rockhardfister]

Hester will have 3x on ST alone.

[2daBank]

Hester will have 3x on ST alone.

im talking receiving tds only..honestly dont know if he still the same returner, i just know he never been a good wr, corner, whatever..

[House]

Julio Jones ...... look out big day today

[slacker00]

Hester will have 3x on ST alone.

I hate to break it to you, but Hester at age 31 has lost his step. He's only had 1 ST TD in almost 3 years.

[2daBank]

Julio Jones ...... look out big day today

that a pretty safe bet every time he on the field. guy is a beast..

[rockhardfister]

I hate to break it to you, but Hester at age 31 has lost his step. He's only had 1 ST TD in almost 3 years.

1x TD Kick return
3x TD Punt return
6x TD Receiving

...since 2011

You have to at least agree that he is a significant upgrade to what we had before in J. Rodgers and Weems. will put a lot of pressure on ST units and force them to kick around him. End result will be better starting position. If he lost a step, I cant tell and he is still shifty as all hell.

[slacker00]

My biggest problem with ATL is getting pressure on Brees. If they can't, Brees will pick them apart.