Machine Choice Analysis: MNF

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  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    Machine Choice Analysis: MNF
    2-0 yesterday in NFL, and after tonight it will be 3-0 this week.

    Two good defenses locking up tonight, but SFO has the edge in the rush defense dept. That's critical because the only reason that Skelton was able to throw 262 yards last week against Minn was because his RB Howling was able to gain 104 yards on the ground. If that doesn't happen tonight (it won't), SFO will disregard the run game and be able to smother the one-dimensional passing game like they typically do.

    Skelton is a turnover machine and was only able to complete 2 of 10 passes against the pathetic Bills defense that allows 247 ypg through the air. Now he faces SFO that allows only 173 ypg. This is a mismatch. While SFO doesn't create alot of turnovers or sacks, they are fundamentally beastly and completely lock down WRs and TEs. Arizona doesn't have a dynamic offense to begin with, so they are going to have to rely on turnovers or something in the special teams to win this game.

    Arizona is lacking depth in their secondary due to injuries to some of their reserves. We'll see how long these guys can hold up considering the fact that they will probably be on the field all night.

    My personal line is SFO -5, but that was with a healthy Kevin Kolb. Now factor in Skelton and these angles:

    - Harbaugh covered last year on MNF, beating Pittsburgh 20-3
    - Under Whisenhunt, Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs SFO
    - Whisenhunt is 1-3 ATS on MNF, all against SFO
    - SFO is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Oct games.
    - Arizona is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Oct games.


    No trap game or look-ahead here....SFO is on bye next week. All attention focused on Arizona.

    NINERS -7
  • Smogs
    SBR MVP
    • 12-31-08
    • 4173

    #2
    That's a hell of an angle and i like it a lot - thanks
    Comment
    • Dogball
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-15-10
      • 625

      #3
      All sounds solid and good on paper. Teams going into bye weeks suck ats. This year. Gl but like home dog on mnf that can play d
      Comment
      • ridims
        SBR MVP
        • 11-15-10
        • 3863

        #4
        cardinals beat the 49'ers at home with the Skelton at QB at the end of last year
        arizona didn't rush well at all, Beanie wells had less then 30 yards rushing for the game
        they still won.
        i think Alex Smith is the wild card here. If he has a solid game 49'ers win and cover. If he plays like he has been, Zona covers and possibly win.
        Comment
        • Machine Choice
          SBR MVP
          • 12-12-08
          • 3997

          #5
          Originally posted by ridims
          cardinals beat the 49'ers at home with the Skelton at QB at the end of last year
          arizona didn't rush well at all, Beanie wells had less then 30 yards rushing for the game
          they still won.
          i think Alex Smith is the wild card here. If he has a solid game 49'ers win and cover. If he plays like he has been, Zona covers and possibly win.
          SFO didn't care about that game. They were already 10-2 when it took place.
          Comment
          • ridims
            SBR MVP
            • 11-15-10
            • 3863

            #6
            Originally posted by Machine Choice
            SFO didn't care about that game. They were already 10-2 when it took place.
            true enough..

            skelton threw 5 int's in the 2 games he played against the 49'ers last year

            both games arizona could not establish the run

            i think you are right.
            Comment
            • fergie's balls
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-07-11
              • 940

              #7
              With the Jet loss yesterday, teams going into bye week are now 4-17 against the spread. Crazy stat, and maybe more then just another trend. New Collective Bargaining Agreement states mandatory of 4 days off, no show,no meetings etc. Guys get to disappear, only time during the season they can do this. Cardinals the play for me.
              Comment
              • ridims
                SBR MVP
                • 11-15-10
                • 3863

                #8
                this line is interesting. i mean. you got a divisional rival game on a monday nighter with the home team a dog at +7??? And Arizona with a win away in being tied with the 49'ers on top of the division... yet the books are giving them 7 points.
                isn't this just luring you in taking the dog? this should entice many people
                Comment
                • Aldous Snow
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 10-29-12
                  • 12

                  #9
                  Lots of good insight. Thought about taking 9ers. Might just stay away.
                  Comment
                  • dredmahawkus
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-26-09
                    • 1803

                    #10
                    under might be the best bet......seems like this is going to be one of them 17-13 games.
                    Comment
                    • JassieJames
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-03-09
                      • 988

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Machine Choice
                      SFO didn't care about that game. They were already 10-2 when it took place.
                      Why did they not care? They were in a fight with New Orleans for a first round buy and the second seed.
                      Comment
                      • ridims
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-15-10
                        • 3863

                        #12
                        Originally posted by JassieJames
                        Why did they not care? They were in a fight with New Orleans for a first round buy and the second seed.
                        49'ers dominated that game until the last Q. 19-7 9'ers until Zona stormed back. Including a big TD toss to LF which you always got to factor in.

                        Either the 9'ers remember that and take out Zona big time or allow them to come back like they did and potentially lose again. I think the 49'ers have the coaching to ensure they don't let that happen again.

                        Lots of banged up players for Arizona as well. They r pretty thin in just about every department especially on the corners.
                        Comment
                        • Machine Choice
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-12-08
                          • 3997

                          #13
                          Predicted score:

                          SFO 21
                          Ariz 13
                          Comment
                          • KktdocT
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 01-28-11
                            • 436

                            #14
                            GL, mate.
                            Comment
                            • Machine Choice
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-12-08
                              • 3997

                              #15
                              Game Over
                              Comment
                              • ridims
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-15-10
                                • 3863

                                #16
                                Nicely done. Was with you.
                                Comment
                                • El Sol
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 05-17-08
                                  • 876

                                  #17
                                  looks like your back from the dead. So do yourself a favor and put Don Juan on ignore this time...
                                  Comment
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