[Nuggz]

Hey I've been betting for a few years but just got into handicapping and relative-value betting, trying my best to find positive EV in bets. Here's my question:

Say I develop a formula that I think accurately predicts the probability of a given team to WIN a game.
Once I have this percentage, is there any way to convert it into an accurate point-spread instead of just money-line? Additionally, if I can arrive at what I think is a 'superior' line for the game, (lets say 50% chance of winning and losing) how can I find my win percentage when betting on the books' inferior line.

Of course I'm not so confident in my handicapping that I think my lines are superior, but for the sake of calculating EV how can I find my expected win%?

Thanks

[suicidekings]

The general equation for EV (based on laying -110 to win 100) is:

EV = 100*p - 110*q

where p & q represent the probabilities of an event winning (p) or losing (q).

From there, if you're trying to compare a point spread to a probability of winning SU, you need to know the value of each half-point (push probabilities) which you can obtain from historical data (margins of victory). Take a look around the Think Tank and you'll likely find this topic addressed already.