Looks good. I like taking double digit dogs in these tourneys, especially in the lower conferences.
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SEC: Mississippi State-Vanderbilt OVER 141.5 (-105)
Vanderbilt is in the top 15% or so of D1 teams in terms of tempo as they love to push the rock up and down the floor. Mississippi State is mid-pack in that category, but appears more than willing to engage faster opponents in that sort of tempo if necessary. During the regular season, these two teams met in Tennessee with 147 points combined. There were 150+ possessions in that one and anything along those lines today should do the trick with two efficient offenses. Vandy shoots a staggering 47% from the floor for the season and they have put up 80 ppg in their last five. State has amped up their production with 72 ppg on 46% shooting in their last five. Both teams have been killing it from three lately. Vandy also offers in the added bonus of being a very foul prone team, while Mississippi State will not help much in that category as one of the least foul prone clubs in D1. Both defenses are a little worse for the wear away from their home courts, coupled with two solid offenses I think this one pushes into the 140s in what should be a very competitive affair.
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GL. I like it too
. Line moved to 143 with pinny . I got it at 142 + 1H over 66 .
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Yeah surprisingly DSI/Bookmaker had a better line at 141. That rarely if ever happens.Comment -
SWAC: Texas Southern +2 (-108)
The Tigers & Golden Lions do battle for the third time this season and for the right to go to the NCAAs. Neither comes in as the favorite here as the regular season champs Jackson State flamed out, leaving Arkansas Pine-Bluff the #2 and TSU the #5 left to take the prize. Both regular season meetings were close with Pine Bluff taking their home date in overtime by four and TSU winning at home by three. Both teams play pretty solid defense, but there is a clear offensive advantage to TSU. They've shot nearly 47% from the field on the season while Pine Bluff shoots only 41. The Golden Lions really struggled against Alabama State, making just 13 field goals in 42 tries. Their defense though has saved the day thus far with two and three point wins in the tournament. TSU is led by the trio of guards DeAndre Hall, Junior Treasure and forward Travele Jones. These three make up over 60% of the scoring for the Tigers. Pine Bluff also gets a lot of its scoring from three players with Terrance Calvin, Savalance Townsend and Lebaron Weathers scoring about half the team's points. Maybe Pine Bluff is a destiny type of team with their close wins, but for me in an even game where it could come down to a few big possessions, I'll take TSU's offense.
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Record: 22-19 [+1.22]
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SWAC [WOMEN]: Southern -5.5 (-115)
Top team in the league in the Championship game for the 2nd straight season. They got killed in last year's title game. Revenge and playing the #7 seed here. I'll quit the chicks probably for quite a bit if they don't torch this game by double digits. They won twice in the regular season by 16 at home and four on the road. Neutral court in Louisiana today. Rip it up Beaver Ball!
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SUNDAY, MARCH 14th
Colonial [WOMEN]: Old Dominion +6 (-115)
Old Dominion and James Madison split two regular season meetings with each winning on the road. ODU is actually the top seed here. JMU is #2. For all the marbles, I like a close game here and getting points seems the right way to go. ODU must find success against the stingy D of JMU to win and I think it needs to happen early. I think the line was set at 6 because that's how much JMU won by at ODU. Seems lazy.
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Atlantic 10: Temple -4 (-106)
Temple takes on Richmond for the A-10 title today. Richmond is the last team to have beaten the Owls, crushing them at home 71-54 back in January. Since then, Temple has reeled off nine straight wins. Both teams are excellent at the defensive end, yielding well under 40% FG shooting on the season. There isn't a ton to separate these two teams as they play a similar style, but Temple should have the advantage after Richmond played the late game on Saturday and had to go to overtime to win while Temple had most of the day off after beating Rhode Island. Amazingly, all but one of Temple's 28 wins have covered at least a four point spread.
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Big South [WOMEN]: Gardner-Webb +5 (-115)
It's #1 Gardner-Webb against #2 Liberty for a spot in the NCAAs here. The line makes little sense to me as Gardner-Webb beat this team twice in the regular season by three on the road and five at home. I believe oddsmakers are giving Liberty credit from the past as the Flames won this tournament the last two years. Last year they beat this Gardner-Webb squad by one point 51-50 to win the title. And last year, it was Liberty who beat Gardner-Webb three times in a row. I think both teams have motivation here, but 5 points seems a bit much on a neutral court.
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Record: 23-21-1 (+0.04)
I can't believe Temple got a push in that game. I also can't believe I changed my bet in that one from higher juice at -3.5 to -4. Oh well with as bad as I have been down the stretch, a push is welcome news. Gonna play the Big 10 Championship to either finish at .500 or stay a shade above as Gardner-Webb is F-ing me in the ass again in women's hoops.
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Big 10: Minnesota-Ohio State OVER 128 (-117)
Minnesota plays Ohio State today for a chance to remove all doubt that they are NCAA tournament bound. Both regular season meetings beat this number. Both won on their home floors and in the wins, both teams that won shot the three ball well. Both Minnesota & Ohio State are shooting above 40% from deep in their last five, while both defenses have clamped down - limiting opponents to shooting percentages in the low 40s and totals in the low 60s. A lot is being made of the Buckeyes double OT game against Illinois and the fatigue factor. Remember though that the Buckeyes got a bye and are playing for the third time in 3 days, but not 4 days. Minnesota is playing their 4th game, but two have been blowouts and they may actually be fairly fresh. The Gophers offense has put up 69 or more in the three Big 10 games in Indianapolis, although one did take OT to do against Michigan State. Still, with confidence and perhaps a need for a win, I think Minnesota continues their solid scoring here today and gets into the mid 60s at least. Ohio State may be tired, but if they can start strong and not have to worry about expending energy on a big comeback - they have scored at least 66 points in 9 of their last 10. Look for this battle to be in the mid 60s and late FTs perhaps to push it over. Minny is over in 4 of their last 5. Ohio State in 4 of their last 6.
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Record: 24-21-1 (+1.04)
Well holy hell Gardner-Webb, I take back all those expletives I shouted at you through the computer. They came back from 20 down with 10:00 to play and lost by two at the buzzer. Nice cover beavers!
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Pac-10 [WOMEN]: UCLA-Stanford UNDER 128 (-115)
Stanford is favored by 15 and beat UCLA by 21 at home and by just four on the road. Both totals slipped just under this number at 127 and 126. Both teams rank in the Top 15 in FG percentage defense and also are Top 50 FG percentage offenses with Stanford being a Top 5 club. UCLA's point production has dipped in this tournament by about nine points from their regular season numbers. Not a good thing when you're going to face one of the top defensive clubs in the country. Stanford has been about five less than their regular season average, but defensively haven't given up more than 52 points in their last six. If UCLA can stay away from their foul heavy ways, this has a good chance to remain under.
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Record: 25-21-1 (+2.04)
Well at least I finish with a winning record and positive units regardless of this last Beaver Ball endeavour. Be going with a new thread for the Big Dance, both women's and men's plus NIT & CBI. See you boys in the trenches.
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Record: 26-21-1 [+4.04]
Finished strong. Be getting the new thread started for the post-season tourneys, including the little bet on - NCAA women's because there is money to be had!
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