Record: 9-4 [+4.60]
The ladies did not dig my kung fu, but the dudes still know that my kung fu is strong.
The ladies did not dig my kung fu, but the dudes still know that my kung fu is strong.
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Summit League: IUPU-Ft.Wayne +4.5 (-102)
This is another line where the bookies are just simply over estimating home court advantage. These two teams finished in the middle of the pack in the Summit League with South Dakota State going 10-8 and IPFW going 9-9. The teams split their two meetings with IPFW winning by six at home and losing by one on the road. In both, IPFW had sizeable leads throughout the game. This tournament is being played in South Dakota, so home court goes to the Jack Rabbits. However, it is not their true home court, but located in Sioux Falls. There isn't much to separate these two teams with both featuring good three point shooters [both shoot about 37%] and both teams hitting in the low 40s from the floor overall. The edge goes defensively to IPFW. SD State allows almost 47% shooting, while IPFW yields 43%. In their last five, Mastadons of IPFW have clamped down even further on defense giving up just 37% shooting. SD State has struggled with its offense, hitting just 39% of its shots in that span. Their defense has also been troublesome defending the perimeter, allowing 42% shooting from the arc while IPFW has hit 43% from distance in that span. The Mastadons have been solid ATS on the road, going 8-3 in posted games. If IPFW takes advantage of South Dakota State's leaky defense again, they should have a chance to be in this game and perhaps have a shot to win in the end.
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West Coast: Portland-St.Mary's OVER 140 (-105)
A contrast of styles with St.Mary's preferring to push the tempo, while Portland does more of a half court set. In both meetings this season though, the tempo has trended up with both totals beating this number. Portland even without Nic Ravio have been solid offensively. Since the guard's injury in February, the Pilots haven't scored less than 68 points. They shoot over 46% on the season and are deadly from outside, hitting 41% from long range. St.Mary's can match that stat for stat with 48% shooting, 41% from beyond the arc. The Gaels average 79 ppg, while Portland puts up 72 ppg. Defensively on the season, both hold opponents to around 43% shooting and totals in the mid 60s. Lately though, both have struggled with opponents shooting 45-46% against them in their last 5. In both regular season meetings, the offenses were the winners with both teams shooting around 48% combined in both games. St.Mary's knows they need a trip to the championship game to keep themselves in the disucssion for a NCAA birth and likely need to win the championship to get in. Expecting a solid showing from both and if the shooters once again run the show, points should come and find this one into the 140s.
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Record: 10-4 [+5.60]
IPFW won straight up. I know kung fu.
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Record: 10-5 [+4.55]
With the big boys getting involved this week, now we find out just how strong the kung fu is. Wax on. Wax off.
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MONDAY, MARCH 8th
West Coast Final [WOMEN]: Gonzaga -16 (-120)Kung fu warriors, we shall find out how fierce the kung fu is with the beaver ball today. Gonzaga has trounced Pepperdine in the two regular season meetings. Wait. Let me rephrase that. DE-STROYED the Waves with their beaver kung fu. Gonzaga won at Pepperdine by 43 and at home by 42. Any questions? The Zags are ranked 4th in scoring average at 81 ppg, shooting percentage is 4th best in the country at almost 48%. Throw in their defense which is in the Top 30, allowing just 36% shooting. Pepperdine is also playing for the 3rd day in a row, while Gonzaga should be well rested after routing Santa Clara by 40 yesterday in their first game in the tournament. Gonzaga has won its last 5 games by an average of almost 39 points. They were also unbeaten in WCC conference play this season. Only four of their 14 conference games were won by less than 16. Gonzaga won this tournament last season, while Pepperdine is a pretty young team. If this is anything but a comprehensive ass whooping, I'll bail on the beaver ball plays this week.
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the line @ 5Dimes jumped to -19. huge jump. not many books carry womens cbb. none that I play at anyway. do you recommend the -19 @ 5Dimes or would you pass at that number?Comment -
I'd take at your own risk. I don't like that much line movement, although I understand on a light schedule that some of these will get heavier play.Comment -
Record: 11-5 [+5.55]
Lady Zags crushing Pepperdine by 30+ with under 3:00 to play. Today, the chicks dig the kung fu too.Comment -
nice call.
I took'm at the -19. they rolled. you think the men do the same tonight vs Saint Marys?Comment -
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Sweet. Glad you cashed. Not sure on that one, probably avoiding it. If St.Mary's plays defense like they did against Portland, it's anyone's contest. Lots of variables in that one that make it better to pass on, mostly that everyone seems to have an opinion on that game!Comment -
good luck EP, hope to see in the tennis forum for Indian WellsComment -
WOW, you crushed that game, wish I woulda seen the play.
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Summit League: IPFW-Oakland OVER 145.5 (-105)Semifinal action tonight as the Mastodons butt heads with the best in the Summit League in the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland. These two met twice in the regular season and both meetings hit into the 160s. So for me, this line for another "small" conference game seems out of order. Fatigue should not be an issue as IPFW played their first game yesterday and Oakland has had a day off since their opener. Oakland has now scored 75 or better in eight straight and has hit for 80+ in six straight. The even better news as far as the total is concerned is that Oakland is giving up a ton of points. Their defense allows 72 ppg on 45% shooting. IUPU-Ft.Wayne is averaging 69 ppg on the season and scored 76 & 83 against Oakland in the regular season. The Golden Grizzlies are a top 40 tempo team and are hitting over 51% from the field in their last five, 44.5% on the season. IPFW's defense was solid during the year gicing up 43% shooting and 60 ppg. Still, they could not slow Oakland as the Golden Grizz lit 'em up for 84 & 86 points in the regular season. As long as Oakland once again dictates tempo, this should have a nice shot to hit.Comment -
Total just bounced down to 145.5. Booked. Let's cook 'em with kung fu.Comment -
I just about to type I got this @ 145.5 instead of your initial 147 lol, LET'S GET THIS!Comment -
Record: 11-6 [+4.50]
Miyagi say bad shooting beat what you think is good capping any day. Regroup and get ready for more kung fu fighting.
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TUESDAY, MARCH 9th
Big East: DePaul-South Florida 1st Half OVER 57.5 (-110)
Last time they played just a week or so ago, the 1st half was flat and the total wound up at 49 points. So what would be different now? Well it's the Big East tournament and this is the end of the line for one of these two teams. South Florida is riding high on a three game win streak and a defeat of UConn in its last game. They have shot a decent 45% from the floor in their last 5 games, while DePaul's defense is allowing 46% shooting. The Bulls defense though has been slipping with USF giving up 48% shooting in their last 5. Tempo is what it is here as both prefer a half court set, but with the lower total set here if they don't get content with shooting from the outside and take it to the rack to break down the defenses, then by the slightest of margins I think this gets done.
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BOL EP
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Record: 11-7 [+3.40]
Miyagi say stupidity follow you. Your kung fu be strong, your mind be weak.Comment -
depaul... 20% FG shooting...
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Summit League [WOMEN]: Oral Roberts +4.5 (-115)
Another line where the team playing in its home state is again getting over valued despite having lost twice to the team they are playing. Oral Roberts boasts the top offense in D1, putting up almost 87 ppg on 43.6% shooting [33rd in the country]. ORU beat SD State on the road in January by 9 and then again later in the month at home by 11. SD State won its two games in the tournament by large margins and perhaps that too is factored into the equation here. SD State has a better defense, but they are mid-pack in D1. ORU though is near the bottom in FG defense. SD State has the experience, but ORU's youngsters won the conference. So, give me the points and a team that knows it can beat the other. Beaver ball, ON! Game is at Sioux Falls, SD. Not the home court for SD State, but in the home state.
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Big East: Rutgers +8 (-109)
Not breaking this down too much. Rutgers and Cincinnati don't have a lot to separate them this season. Cincy did beat Rutgers at The RAC by 6. Rutgers though has been a much better ATS team this season. The Bearkats are just 7-18 ATS this season. Rutgers is 12-14, but has covered 7 of their last 10. Expecting an uglyish low scoring affair that may bounce back and forth. If Rutgers can do a little better on the boards, then I think they will keep it very tight down the stretch.
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MEAC: Florida A&M +6 (-102)
Bethune-Cookman finished two games better than A&M in the MEAC, but both regular season games were competitive. A&M blew the first one on the road when one of their players pulled a Chris Webber and called a timeout the team didn't have. The technical foul free throw was the game winner for Bethune-Cookman, 59-58. They played at Florida A&M just last week where the Rattlers paid them back with a 69-64 win. A&M finished with 4 wins in their last 7 games after winning just five games the rest of the year. BC comes in with just two wins in their last eight games. Offensively both are mediocre with low shooting percentages. Edge to BC defensively as A&M gives up about 45% FG shooting to BC at 43%. A&M rallied in both games during the regular season after trailing in the 1st half, so they should have confidence heading into this one and if they can make some threes - they can keep this one close and perhaps steal one.
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Record: 12-7 [+4.40]
Hooty hoo! Beaver ball bangs home a winner. Oral Roberts loses by four points in overtime. My kung fu is strengthening.
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Great work!
Just checked out your thread.
The "EAGLESPHAN36" Style of Kung Fu!
Everybody was Kung Fu fightin' ...Comment -
Record: 12-8 [+3.38]
Rattler no carry bite in last minute, break board over Miyagi face. Looks like I picked the wrong dog in the MEAC. Had Howard chosen first +7, but switched to A&M. Ah well.
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Record: 13-8 [+4.38]
Woulda, shoulda, coulda on a winning day if I would have avoided that DePaul BS. Still, ending day KUNG FU strong. Ruggaz!
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TUESDAY, MARCH 10th
Big 12: Colorado-Texas Tech OVER 154 (-105)
These two teams just played four days ago with 191 points being scored between the two. Certainly, I would not expect that many points perhaps, but the number of possessions from that game does lend itself to a shot today. There were approximately 163 possessions in that game. Both shot 50% or better with the Buffs shooting close to 60%. Have to like that only 14 threes were made in that game, so it wasn't a long range bomb fest that could go cold and turn into an under quickly. Both teams have been giving up points by the bucket load of late, with Tech yielding almost 85 ppg in their last 5 at 46% shooting. Colorado has given up 83 ppg on a staggering 49% shooting. The Buffs are shooting 52% in their last five, scoring almost 79 per game while Tech is putting up about 74 on 42.5% shooting. Colorado has given up 90+ in 3 of the last 5. Tech has given up 80 or more in 4 of the last 5 they have played without going to overtime. Another thing working in favor of an over is that these are two of the most foul prone squads in D1 ball as they both fit into the Top 20 teams for most fouls committed per game. Both shoot FTs pretty solidly, so that also can help.
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Southland: UT-San Antonio +3 (-104)
UTSA and A&M Corpus Christi played two very tight games during the regular season. Each won on the other's court. A&M Corpus Christi winning by four in overtime and UTSA edging A&M-CC by one. Offensively, the stats align about dead 50-50 for both teams although they get their points in different ways. The Road Runners of UTSA are perimeter based, while A&M-CC will look to get its points in the paint mostly. Very little to separate the two, but I give an edge to UTSA as they shoot free throws very well and that could be a big factor in what figures to be a close game. UTSA must find a way to contain Kevin Palmer for the Islanders. He's Corpus' best player/leading scorer and if they keep around his average of 19.7, than they have a shot here. Palmer had 18 & 19 in the two regular season meetings.
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Record: 13-10 [+2.29]
Kung Fu broke. You come back later, get more picks to fade. Thanks UTSA for blowing a ten point half time lead.
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Conference USA [WOMEN]: East Carolina-Tulane OVER 134 (-115)
When the kung fu hustle needs to be re-established, turn to beaver ball! These two met once in the regular season and it was the conference champs, Tulane, holding down ECU at their house 56-51. Lost in that low total was the tremendous amount of opportunities blown with 49 combined turnovers in that game. ECU will be looking to exact some revenge and upset the top seed for a spot in the C-USA championship game. The Lady Pirates [rrrrrrr!] like to push the ball and have been steamrolling offensively of late with four straight efforts over 70 points. That includes a C-USA tournament record 102 against Southern Miss in Round 1. ECU is one of the best shooting teams in the league at 46% from the floor, while Tulane is decent at 42%. Both defenses limit foes to totals in the low 60s on shooting percentages in the high 30s. If these two teams take better care of the rock, look for more offense in this meeting with free throws looming large down the stretch. Let's go beaver ballin'.
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