EP36's Conference Tournament Bubble Busters

[EaglesPhan36]

Big 12: Iowa State +9 (-105)

Last one for today for me [by the looks of it, would have been a good idea to make it the only one]. Cyclones are playing well and Texas hasn't figured much out in the last two months. Give me the team that will try harder and has a history of covering against the Longhorns [5 of the last 7]. Iowa State is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games and have only lost by double figures in 2 of their last 10. Those came on the road against Kansas & Baylor.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 14-10 [+3.29]

Beaver ball saves the day. Chicks still dig kung-fu!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 15-10 [+4.29]

Diante Garrett knows kung-fu.

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, MARCH 11th
MAC: Central Michigan-Western Michigan OVER 128 (-105)

Ain't it Kool? David Kool. One of the best guards in the country that most people don't know about. Western's Kool will be depended on again to try and advance the Broncos in the MAC. Kool has been the big shot for this program for years and the senior will try to carry the team on his back again. He averages 21 ppg this season, a career best and has tallied 48 points in the two meetings with Central this season. Western averages around 68 ppg, shooting just 42%. Central struggles at 41% shooting and 64 ppg. Both defenses have been leaky lately with both allowing better than 45% shooting over their last five games. Central will rely on their guard oriented attack led by Jordan Bitzer and Robby Harman to do damage from outside. The duo combined for 14 threes in the two meetings against the Broncos this season. Western has struggled to defend the arc at 40% over the last five, so Central should find some success. Western desperately needs a second player to step up and help Kool. If they find one with some consistency today, this total should find itself into the upper 130s. Fouls should also come in handy in this one with Central one of the most foul prone teams in the country at 22 fouls per game with Western committing about 19. Both regular season meetings featured a good number of FTs. My kung fu starts strong today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dropped to 128. I'll take it. Wax on. Wax off. Booked.

[EaglesPhan36]

PARLAY: Memphis-Texas A&M ML (-130)

Two of the most solid plays this afternoon I believe. Memphis is up against Houston. The teams split their regular season meetings with both winning at home. Houston is not nearly as good defensively as Memphis and that is what makes the difference today + the Tigers realistically need at least two wins to maybe firm up their NCAA chances. A&M gets Nebraska after the Huskers shock defeat of Missouri. That alone should get the Aggies attention here.

[HoulihansTX]

RAS is on the Under in that Michigan games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man Memphis can kiss any NCAA aspirations good bye if they shit the bed in the 2nd half too.

[kmarinouofm]

Dropped to 128. I'll take it. Wax on. Wax off. Booked.

by the skin of your teeth brother!! GOOD ONE!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Never mind. Bet was not placed prior to start of game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mountain West: BYU -16 (-105)

BYU draws TCU in their opener here and it should be more of what we saw in the regular season. BYU esily beat TCU twice, by 20 and home and by 30 just a week ago in Ft.Worth. BYU shoots a high percentage [48%] and TCU struggles to stop opponents, yielding 45% shooting and about 70 ppg. Offensively, the Horned Frogs are decent enough and shot 49% against the Cougars last time. Still, if you can't stop your opponent it's tough to beat them or keep it close. Considering BYU has won by margins larger than this in 6 of their last 9 and went 8-2 ATS when given the favorite's tag by 15 points or more, I like their chances to once again rather easily handle my alma mater.

[tbill11]

Oh man the ability to bet against your school is tough EP, but that's what making money's all about. I'll bet you know your stuff on this one and follow along. BOL to the both of us!

[EaglesPhan36]

PAC-10: Oregon +11 (-105)

This is strictly a gut play and I thought about it all afternoon. Ernie Kent is done. Ducks played OT late in the night. Cal crucified them twice. Easy Cal win? Ancient Chinese secret huh? It's either dangerously close or I look like a fool when the Bears maul the Quack Attack by 20.

[EaglesPhan36]

MEAC: Norfolk State +6 (-102)

Balls to the wall tonight. Another one that makes little sense other than those buying into the it's hard to beat a team three times theory. Otherwise, Norfolk State has beaten Hampton twice and has the better offense and at least a comparable defense. These are two of the hottest teams in the league with Hampton going 7-3 in their last 10 and Norfolk at 8-2. Should be close throughout and taking the points seems very nice as a result.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big West: Cal Poly SLO +7 (-102)

Cal Poly and Long Beach do battle in the Big West quarters tonight. They split a pair of games with each winning on the other's court. Poly gets 70 ppg despite shooting just 41% from the floor. They are a solid FT shooting squad which could bode well in a tight game. Poly shoots 72%. Long Beach shoots just a shade better at 42% and puts up about the same amount of points. They do scuffle at the line at 64%. Both defenses are a bit iffy, so there should be points in this one. Poly's loss to Long Beach was by just six, while Poly won by 11. In both, Poly got off quick and then faded some in the 2nd half. If they can put two halves together, I think they keep it close.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow. If that game wasn't fixed, I don't know what was. Cal Poly down by 7 with :12 seconds left and THEY FOUL? Long Beach wins by 9 and I'm guessing someone on Poly made some money. Seriously.

[EaglesPhan36]

PAC-10: Oregon State-Washington OVER 133.5 (-105)

Might as well go down in flames as I creep to around .500 for the post-season after a decent start. Washington needs wins in this tournament to help themselves with a potential at-large and they have owned Oregon State in recent memory. Beavers have been able to score on them as well. Fade away.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-14 [+1.87]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-15 [+0.82]

Rough day on Thursday, but the Lord he do have a sense of humor. The devil arrived in my bank account this morning in the form of my tax refund. Reposting at one of my favorite books and getting back to the basics today.

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, MARCH 12th
Big 12 [WOMEN]: Kansas State +20 (-120)

Kansas State faces the top seed in Nebraska today in Big 12 action. K-State won their opener in the tournament, taking down Texas Tech 59-51. Nebraska is a solid, solid club that is one of the better shooting women's team in the country. They rank 6th in FG percentage. K-State isn't anything special here as they are rebuilding with young players, but they have fought hard in the conference this season. They lost both regular season meetings, by 10 at home recently and 15 in Lincoln. In the recent game at home, they actually led by 7 at the half. I think they'll take a little confidence from that into this game. Nebraska also has not totally blown away their opponents when playing away from their home court. Nebraska will win this, but I fancy K-State a chance to battle to the end and keep it under this large number if they can start strong and show some confidence.

[minet123]

Good luck today Eagles tailing you on big chick B ball

[EaglesPhan36]

Big 10: [1st Half] Michigan-Ohio State OVER 55 (-110)

With Ohio State's offensive efficiency and Michigan's willingness to chuck and duck on the three ball, this total seems a few points shy of what it should be. Michigan is the key to me in this one as they MUST hit some shots early to help this one get done. If the Wolverines can get into the mid 20s, I think the Buckeyes do the rest on this total. Won't get much help from fouls I believe as these are two of the least foul prone squads in D-1 - they both rank in the Top 15 for the least amount of fouls per game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 18-15 [+1.82]

Uncle Sam gets a 1st half winner. 60 points. My tax refund at work. K-State sticking around in the 1st half because Nebraska can't buy a three right now. Good thing because K-State is turning the ball over like they've got a quota to hit. In any case, they're down by a point at the half. Let's see if they can not suck by more than 18 points.

[EaglesPhan36]

SWAC: Alabama State +4.5 (-105)

Alabama State faces Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the SWAC semis today. State entered this tournament on a pretty good roll with wins in 6 of their last 7 and the one loss being a one point loss to SWAC regular season champs Jackson State. These two teams split their meetings with State losing at Pine Bluff by five and winning at home by two in overtime. Both teams are bad shooting around 40% on the season. Defensively, a slight edge to Pine Bluff. Pine Bluff is also on a solid streak with 9 wins in their last 10. State relies heavily on senior guard Menji Mundadi, the 2nd leading scorer in the SWAC. He averaged 17.5 against Pine Bluff and should be looking to atone for a poor performance in their win yesterday against Alabama A&M when he had just four points. Tramayne Moorer, another senior, took up for him with a big double-double. He'll need to help out as well. I'm looking at a close game and think the two seniors for State can keep their team in this game and possibly pull off an upset.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 19-15 [+2.82]

Beaver ball winner. K-State loses by 17. Uncle Sam, you da man!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 20-15 [+3.82]

Uncle Sam delivers one more. Alabama State loses by two, but covers the 4.5.

[linedrivr]

looking good so far today. 3-0. I tailed you on the Kstate women and Alabama St. didnt man up on the over in the 1H of the Mich game. I dont have very good luck with those....

[EaglesPhan36]

Big 12 [WOMEN]: Oklahoma State-Iowa State OVER 125.5 (-115)

Iowa State could be getting their leading scorer and senior leader Alison Lacey back in this one and it could come just in time for the Cyclones. These two teams met just a few weeks ago in Stillwater without Lacey and the result was a 78-70 Okie State win. The Cowgirls are the tempo team here as they love to push it. Andrea Riley is their studette, so as she goes, so go the Cowgirls. She must get help from Aussie post Tegan Cunningham for offensive balance. The Cowgirls have scored 70+ in 4 of their last 5 and given up 69 points or more in seven straight. Lacey's effectiveness coming off a few weeks of inactivity with a bronchial virus is probably the key element here along with Okie State being able to dictate tempo. I'm not sure Lacey play heavy minutes and as evidenced by the 70 point output against Okie State last time without her, they can score without her ... I actually think for an OVER it benefits the play if she sees limited time and the defensive leader has less of an impact. This tips at 6pm ET.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big East: Marquette +4 (-120)

Georgetown and Marquette meet in the semis tonight and the Golden Eagles just have a knack for playing close games. Four of their last seven have gone to overtime. Marquette beat the Hoyas at home by three back in January. They did a good job to containt Greg Monroe on the block and they'll need to keep him in check again tonight. The thing I like is that Georgetown's perimeter defense has been a little giving along the three point line. Marquette hit 12 of 26 the first time they met and Syracuse burned them for 11 of 20 yesterday. I think this game may be won on who defends the perimeter better. Of Marquette's ten losses, seven have come by 4 points or less so I think it is important to buy the hook here and get four points in what should be a war from start to finish.

[EaglesPhan36]

MEAC: [1st Half] South Carolina State-Delaware State UNDER 54.5 (-110)

It feels dirty taking the under on a low total, but Delaware State's style is what dictates it for me. They take the air out of the ball on each possession and will look to keep the tempo in-check. The defenses for both have been much better lately. Would go under for the game at 120, but FTs, etc. as did happen in their regular season meeting make this all the better. Slow and no-go.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 21-17 [+2.47]

Little unlucky on the beaver ball game that fell about 5 points short. If they did anything in the 1st half, the over would have hit easy. Marquette ran out of gas. Easy under winner in the 1st half. Gonna rest up till tomorrow and stay up with a decent 4-2 day.

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, MARCH 13th
Big South [WOMEN]: Gardner-Webb -12.5 (-120)

Championship game in the Big South is a rematch for the third time this season of Gardner-Webb and Coastal Carolina. Gardner-Webb crushed the Chanticleers at home by 45 points and then won the rematch on the road by six. That last one clinched the regular season title for Gardner-Webb who went 16-1 in the conference. The final score was a little deceiving as Gardner-Webb was in control by as many as 18 in the 2nd half before foul trouble allowed the home team to battle back. Overall, Gardner-Webb has a solid FG percentage offensively and is a good FG percentage defense. Both ranking in the Top 30 of the country, while Coastal Carolina is a below-average team in both departments. Gardner-Webb has some good senior leadership too, so I expect on a neutral court with the NCAA tournament on the line that Gardner-Webb has what it takes.

[EaglesPhan36]

MEAC: South Carolina State +10 (-105)

This one also seems a tad off seeing as the two teams split the regular season meetings with each winning on the other's floor. SC State won the most recent meeting at Morgan State by three. The first meeting went to Morgan State by five back in January on SC State's home court. A look at both teams sees SC State as the slightly better shooters of the two, hitting 45% from the floor to 43% for Morgan State. Both teams like an up-tempo style. Defensively, SC State has been the better of the two over the last five, yielding just 38% from the floor. They have held opponents to just 58 ppg. They will need to guard the three point line well as Morgan State has been hot there lately, 39% in their last five. The Bulldogs of SC State should have plenty of confidence heading into this one as they led both games at the half and only a parade of foul shots really made a large difference when Morgan State snatched the win. SC State needs Jason Flagler to continue to lead them with his play. He has 39 points in the 1st two games combined in the tournament and he dominated Morgan State in the last meeting with 24 points. Morgan State has the experience edge with this being their third straight tournament final appearance. They are 1-1 under Todd Bozeman. SC State will be riding a wave of emotion after blowing a big lead yesterday, but regrouping to win in overtime - if they can control that and not come out flat, I look for a close game once again.

[HoulihansTX]

Yes I agree.

As SBR's self-titled "Shit Conference Expert". I give it the seal of approval.

SC St. +10

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweet!