EP36's Conference Tournament Bubble Busters

THEGREAT30 · 03-02-10, 06:37 PM

Good early info, good day

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-10, 06:46 PM

Ohio Valley Conference: Tennessee Tech +9 (-102)

Tech has matched up very well against Austin Peay in their two regular season meetings. They beat the Governors by four at home and lost by five in overtime on the road. They have plenty of offense to keep up, averaging 75 ppg on 47% shooting, just over 39% from distance. Their defense is the achilles heel, allowing almost 78 ppg on 46% shooting. Tech must defend the 3 point line as the Governors are hot shooting almost 44% from 3 in their last five. Don't be surprised to see the lower seed [6] in Tennessee Tech sticking around into the late minutes of this one.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-10, 09:42 PM

1 up, 1 down. Kung Fu warrior.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-10, 10:44 PM

Tennessee Tech wins straight up. Locked & loaded. Do you kung fu?

Record: 2-0 [+2.00]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-10, 01:47 PM

WEDNESDAY MARCH 3rd
Atlantic Sun: Kennesaw State +10 (-105)

The #1 seed meets the #8 in the A-Sun opener today. Lipscomb earned the top seed via tie breaker after tying with three other squads for first place during the regular season. This game is being played in Macon, GA at Mercer's court, so no home field edge to worry about. The teams met twice during the regular season with Kennesaw upsetting Lipscomb at home, 97-91. That game featured 30 made threes on 51 attempts. The 2nd meeting at Lipscomb was a 74-66 Lipscomb win. 13 of 38 from distance combined in that one. The Fighting Owls of Kennesaw State should have some confidence with the way both regular season meetings stayed pretty competitive. Lipscomb is one the Top 40 tempo squads in the country and they average 1.07 points per possession on offense and give up the same defensively. Their defense gives up almost 76 ppg on 47% shooting, so even a so-so offensive squad like Kennesaw [40.7% shooting] can put up some points. Kennesaw State is a former D-2 school that has only been at this level for about 4-5 years, so making the conference tournament is an accomplishment in itself. If Kennesaw can find a rhythm offensively early, they may remain competitive in this one for a bit. Lipscomb's defense can allow for that.

HoulihansTX · 03-03-10, 03:07 PM

I went with Kennesaw too. Made it a 2U bet.

I think you and I will make good profit this tourny

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-10, 04:17 PM

Right on son. Tango & CASH. Another one where the dog wins straight up. My kung fu remains strong.

Record: 3-0 [+3.00]

HoulihansTX · 03-03-10, 04:21 PM

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-10, 05:57 PM

Patriot League: Colgate +7.5 (-105)

Patriot League quarterfinals with the #3 seed Lafayette meeting the #6 seed Colgate. This is a home game for Lafayette and that might suit Colgate just fine as the Raiders beat Lafayette 74-73 on the road in the last meeting. Lafayette won the 1st meeting, 95-82 at Colgate. Both teams boast some solid outside shooters. Lafayette shot right at 38% from beyond the arc this season while Colgate hit at 37%. Lafayette has had some issues defending the arc, yielding 39% shooting although they have been better in their last 5 at 31%. Lafayette comes in red hot, shooting 44% from distance in that 5 game stretch, so Colgate must effectively defend the perimeter. This is a good spot for Colgate which has some senior leadership against a Lafayette team that relies on a couple of sophomores and a junior as their top three scorers. This is also a team that was awful last season with just 8 wins and picked to finish last this season by many. They have definitely over-achieved and will like their chances to win at home where they have never lost a Patriot League tournament game. Still Colgate with sharp shooters [4 players hitting better than 35% on the season] and some experience should bring with it the confidence of beating this team on this court. Another one where the game may remain very close down the stretch.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-10, 08:58 PM

Record: 3-1 [+1.95]

My Kung Fu remains strong, 73-65 - just missed it. I shall break boards with my scrotum in the morning and retaliate with the ferocity of a rabid sock monkey.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-10, 05:19 PM

THURSDAY, MARCH 4th
Big South: Winthrop-Radford UNDER 123 (-105)

The #2 seed Radford and #3 seed Winthrop meet for the third time this season in Big South semifinal action at 6pm ET. Radford won both earlier meetings by two points with the totals both falling below tonight's number. That includes an overtime affair that ended with 120 points. Both meetings were defensive struggles with both teams being held in the 30s percentage-wise from the field. Radford ranks in the top 30 in defensive field goal %, allowing just 39.6%. Winthrop givs up around 41% shooting, ranking it at 74th in the nation [top third]. Winthrop will once again try to rely on defense and a half court set to try and slow Radford and their big man, Art Parakhouski. Winthrop has been physical with the big man and they will need that to be successful in shutting down Radford today. Radford is the better of the two offensively, hitting for 72 ppg on the season. They did hit 46% from the floor in the opening round against Charleston Southern, but still wound up with just 64 points in an overtime game. They limited Charleston Southern to 39% shooting, including 1 of 14 from distance. Winthrop has averaged a paltry 62 ppg, shooting 38% on the season. Neither team shoots the three that well and both have free throw shooting issues, so even if this turns into a foul fest in the waning minutes, they might not be able to take advantage. Both teams are also in the bottom third or so as far as their contributions to their overall score from free throws.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-10, 05:57 PM

Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson +8 (-105)

Another one of these match-ups that pits teams with nearly identical records, yet the line indicates that home court advantage is worth much more than it appears to be. Fairleigh Dickinson and Long Island met on February 18th with LIU pulling out a 68-62 win at home. The Blackbirds won that one mostly on getting to the FT line as they shot 28 free throws to FD's 8. The point differential from FTs was 11. There just isn't a ton to separate these two as they both shoot in the low 40s from the field, LIU is slightly better from distance. Both give up over 70 ppg on the season allowing teams to shoot 43% from the field. Fairleigh Dickinson actually has a bit more balanced scoring with four players averaging double figures whereas LIU has two who account for more than 40% of their offense. This figures to be a competitive game based on all factors and that being the case, taking the points here seems correct.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-10, 08:22 PM

Record: 4-1 [+2.95]

I know Kung Fu.

beefcake · 03-04-10, 08:34 PM

glad we were both on that under big daddy!!

JUDO CHOP!!!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-10, 09:17 PM

Record: 5-1 [+3.95]

kmarinouofm · 03-04-10, 09:58 PM

well done homie..

whatsgood5 · 03-04-10, 10:07 PM

Helluva start man, keep up the good work!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-10, 11:54 AM

FRIDAY, MARCH 5th
Southern Conference: Elon +9 (-108)

This is another one of those match-ups where "name" is driving up the spread for no real reason. Elon did not have a good season, 8-22 overall and 5-13 in conference play. However, they picked up four of those wins in their last 9 games and lost by an average of 5 points in that stretch. Davidson in Year 1 after Steph Curry ran out to a decent 16-14 record, 11-7 in conference play. When you match these teams up however, Elon isn't as bad as the records suggest. Just last week, Elon took Davidson to double overtime before falling by three points. Figure in that Elon blew a three point lead with under 10 seconds left and this club has a shot to keep pace today. Both teams do not shoot the ball all that well, Elon at 41% and Davidson at 42%. Both have some defensive issues, Elon allowing 46% shooting and Davidson 44%. Both give up 70+ points per game. Elon though lately has been the better ballclub, shooting 48% in their last 5. Davidson is shooting just 40% in that same range and giving up close to 47% from the floor to their opponents. Elon shot a solid 52% against the Wildcats in the double OT game, while Davidson hit for just 42%. Davidson did hit a bevy of threes, 16 of 37 and that will need to be an area of concern for the Elon defense. Elon was solid from distance as well, hitting 10 of 22. So both have concerns there. Elon has a trio of players who hit 35% or better from three point land this season, so expect them to test Davidson's defense. One last number to throw out, Davidson was just 8-18-1 ATS this season ranking it in the bottom three teams in D1 ball this season.

jasonw · 03-05-10, 12:54 PM

great write EP. I was leaning that way before i read that but now i love that pick.

whatsgood5 · 03-05-10, 01:22 PM

Small play for me on Elon too, BOL

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-10, 04:36 PM

Another dog wins straight up. My kung fu remains strong.

Record: 6-1 [+4.95]

HoulihansTX · 03-05-10, 04:37 PM

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-10, 05:24 PM

Horizon Conference: Detroit-Green Bay OVER 133.5 (-105)

This will be the third meeting of the season between these two clubs. Both have been nail biters with UW-Green Bay winning both by two points. Detroit prefers the tempo to be quicker and their offense is capable of some good things as evidenced against Valpo when they chucked in 89 points against a leaky defense. UWGB should be a bit tighter on defense, allowing 44% from the field on the season and around 67 ppg. Detroit's defense has been solid as well, yielding 66 ppg on 41 shooting. Both offenses have been hot of late with the Titans shooting 46% over their last five, while the Phoenix have hit for 47% in their last 5 and scored 70+ in 4 of their last 5. This game takes place in Indianapolis, so neither team will have a home court edge - both performed reasonably well in neutral site clashes. Expecting a close game in this one for a birth in the Horizon semis on the line, so late fouls could aid in the quest for points. The magic number for me here is Detroit getting 70 points or better. They have reached that figure 15 times this season with just one game not surpassing this evening's posted number when they achieve that total.

kmarinouofm · 03-05-10, 05:42 PM

a lot of books dealing different lines.. i see it as low as 131.. but pinny still selling a 133??

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-10, 05:47 PM

F*ck me. Just dropped three points. Oh well. I waited long for this one thinking maybe it'd drop and hadn't seen any movement until now. F 'em. I know kung fu.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-10, 07:52 PM

Record: 6-2 [+3.80]

Miyaga say wax-off loss and get on with kung fu being strong again.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-10, 01:31 PM

SATURDAY, MARCH 6th
America East: Maine -3.5 (-105)

Maine comes into the America East tournament as the 3rd seed, facing off against 6th seeded New Hampshire. The Black Bears have beaten New Hampshire twice in the regular season by double digits. Those can be attributed to solid defensive efforts/pour offensive efforts by New Hampshire which shot under 30% in both games. The Wildcats have been bad offensively all season, shooting just under 38% and averaging only 61 ppg. The Maine defense gives up just 61 ppg on 39% shooting. New Hampshire comes in on a high note with two wins in their last three games, including a drubbing of the regular season champs Stony Brook on senior night. They also played the Seawolves tough at home, losing by just six at home. So that is a case where they just matched up well and I think the line setters here may have based some of this line on that last game by New Hampshire. Maine did beat Stony Brook at home as well, so they certainly have the skills too. I think this comes down to Maine being comfortable already against New Hampshire and this one is at a neutral court in Hartford, which I think gives a slight edge to Maine who has played better on the road this season - beating Boston College and going 5-3 in conference play. New Hampshire was just 2-6.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-10, 04:42 PM

MAAC: 1st Half Manhattan-Siena OVER 65 (-110)

Siena knows full well that despite it's reputation from last year's NCAA run, they must win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title to get back to the Big Dance. Manhattan comes into this off their season best of 94 points in the opening round against Loyola(MD). Siena has the advantage of playing this game on its home court where they average almost 80 ppg on 47% shooting. Siena beat Manhattan twice, 83-68 on their home court and 66-58 at Manhattan. Both times they were without Edwin Ubiles. Last season, he did very well averaging 20.5 ppg in two Siena wins over the Jaspers. I expect the Saints to come out quick and look to not let Manhattan have life in this one. The Jaspers will rely on the MAAC's leading scorer Rico Pickett who had 33 against Loyola to keep pace in this one. Manhattan shot just 38% on the road this season, but did hit better than that on this court. Pickett has not been slowed by this team, scoring 26 & 20. So long as Siena dictates tempo [Top 40 tempo team] - then I like the chances of squeaking into the upper 60s or low 70s in the 1st half.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-10, 06:07 PM

Record: 7-2 [+4.80]

Not exactly the way I expected the 1st half to go with Siena struggling some, but a win is a win and the kung fu remains strong.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-10, 06:25 PM

Summit League: UMKC-Oakland OVER 148 (-105)

These two teams are meeting for the third time this season with both meetings hitting past this number. These two teams almost always play high pace, high scoring affairs with the last 10 in this series all posting higher totals at the final buzzer versus tonight's posted number. Both defenses are leaky, allowing over 70+ ppg. UMKC allows 48.5% FG shooting and Oakland, 46%. Oakland has been ripping it up on offense, shooting almost 50% in their last 5 while hitting for 86 ppg. UMKC has struggled even more defensively in that same span, yielding 55% shooting and 82 ppg. So long as Oakland establishes the tempo [Top 40 tempo squad], this one should have a dandy shot at shooting into the 150s or beyond.

hoopster42 · 03-06-10, 06:34 PM

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-10, 02:37 AM

Record: 8-3 [+4.75]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-10, 11:42 AM

SUNDAY, MARCH 7th
Atlantic 10 [Women]: Xavier-Charlotte OVER 125 (-115)

Decided to toss my women's picks in here as well, yes beaver ball! Do what you choose with this information. Xavier is an up tempo club that ranks in the Top 20 in both points scored and FG shooting percentage. They should also be out for blood today after struggling a bit against Richmond in their A-10 opener. Charlotte is much more of a defensive minded club, but they struggled against St.Joseph's in their A-10 opener yesterday. They yielded 74 points in regulation and gave up 54% shooting. Xavier certainly can take advantage of another defensive lapse and put up a ton of points. The good news is Charlotte has also been on a decent scoring streak, tallying at least 63 points in its last 60 and 80+ in it's last two straight. Charlotte doesn't figure to get into the 80s here, but coming off the emotional win against St.Joseph's in OT, they could be sleepy on defense and allow Xavier to get out early. If Charlotte can get anywhere from 55-60 points, I fully expect Xavier to do the rest. The first meeting between the two ended with a 81-61 Lady Muskies home win.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-10, 12:52 PM

MAC: Northern Illinois +8 (-105)

Two teams here that struggle to shoot the ball. NIU shooting just 40%, but using a face pace to average 70 pp. Eastern Michigan shoots just 41% and puts up about 66 ppg. The better defense belongs to the Eagles of EMU. Both teams won on their home court in the regular season. NIU kept the road tilt to a 66-60 loss, pretty impressive when you consider they shot 30% and 9 of 25 from the FT line. NIU didn't have great success in terms of wins and losses on the road, but they were competitive on the road this season. The line was +9 when they met on February 27th and covered at EMU. Books adjusted slightly for that close game, but I believe if NIU can shoot the ball a bit better and make some key stops on defense - they will keep this close again.