Hoops 2014

[BiffTFinancial]

my Super Bowl plays for tomorrow, posted in football thread

Super Bowl XLVIII 2.2.2014
1* Seahawks Moneyline (+115)
1* Seahawks/Broncos first half under 24

[Madison]

I never saw Az/Cal at 120.

[RavensFan2k3]

I dont understand why everyone on the boards like Seattle

[BiffTFinancial]

I never saw Az/Cal at 120.

Yeah, me either. There were almost no fouls/FTs in that game, which killed it. Fortunately, i hit my 2u play.

[Tacklin Fuel]

Biff - looks like a good day to fade Bearcats? Prime let down spot after road win @ Lville....

[BiffTFinancial]

I dont understand why everyone on the boards like Seattle

I gotta tell you, I pay no attention to NFL thoughts on SBR other than the guys that I've known for a long time (Bank, pacocn, Madison). A few weeks ago, there was an SBR thread about how Russell Wilson can't win a Super Bowl because he's black. It's penetrating 2014. Yeah, and Richard Sherman is a "thug" too. Whatever. He had a better GPA at Stanford (actually, much better) than I had at W&M.

So, I can't speak to SBR boards, but the public is clearly on Denver, that much I know, but the line hasn't and won't even sniff Broncos -3. I'm no NFL expert, and my model says Seahawks 23-20. I generally side with my models unless i have good reason to depart from them. They and I are both wrong plenty often, but it seems that i have my worst and most frustrating experiences when i depart from my methodology (and i've done well in NFL playoffs this season, 7-3). I actually like under better than Seahawks today, but i think that there is nice value in Seahawks ML at +115. If the forecast called for more wind, I'd like Seahawks more. I am not saying that Seattle is a lock - there is no such thing - but they are my side today.

I will give a few reasons as to why i'm sticking with my model today:
- five times in Super Bowl history, the #1 offense has faced the #1 defense. the #1 defense is 4-1 SU in these meetings.
- on the other side of the ball, i genuinely think that Seattle's offense is better than Denver's defense.
- the extra week off is an advantage for the defensive-oriented Seahawks. extra time off often hurts offensive rhythm, especially passing game.
- in general, in both football and hoops, i look to back the more physical team. Seattle clearly is that.
- i have yet to see any opinion backing the Broncos that isn't 95% about Peyton Manning and him setting records and being "unstoppable."
- i think that Marshawn Lynch is the key to this game, even more than the 2 QBs. Denver's defense has lost a lot of talent to injury this season (one of the reasons that they've slowed tempo recently), and i don't think that they'll be able to stop Lynch.
- a couple of statistical items:
* DEN redzone offense #1 vs SEA RZ defense #1 compared to SEA RZ offense #12 vs DEN RZ defense #25
* DEN off YPA #2 vs SEA def YPA #1 compared to SEA off YPA #4 vs DEN def YPA #15
- i penetrating hate that prick Papa John
- about the only thing that i don't like is that that shitmouth Berman has Seattle 23-21 in his 10-minute-long "two minute drill." oh well. to paraphrase Woody Allen, the model wants what the model wants.

In the end, my model says Seahawks and the public like Broncos. I'll play that angle 1u every time.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff - looks like a good day to fade Bearcats? Prime let down spot after road win @ Lville....

Agree as to spot. Haven't capped that game yet but will take a look asap.

[RavensFan2k3]

I gotta tell you, I pay no attention to NFL thoughts on SBR other than the guys that I've known for a long time (Bank, pacocn, Madison). A few weeks ago, there was an SBR thread about how Russell Wilson can't win a Super Bowl because he's black. It's penetrating 2014. Yeah, and Richard Sherman is a "thug" too. Whatever. He had a better GPA at Stanford (actually, much better) than I had at W&M.

So, I can't speak to SBR boards, but the public is clearly on Denver, that much I know, but the line hasn't and won't even sniff Broncos -3. I'm no NFL expert, and my model says Seahawks 23-20. I generally side with my models unless i have good reason to depart from them. They and I are both wrong plenty often, but it seems that i have my worst and most frustrating experiences when i depart from my methodology (and i've done well in NFL playoffs this season, 7-3). I actually like under better than Seahawks today, but i think that there is nice value in Seahawks ML at +115. If the forecast called for more wind, I'd like Seahawks more. I am not saying that Seattle is a lock - there is no such thing - but they are my side today.

I will give a few reasons as to why i'm sticking with my model today:
- five times in Super Bowl history, the #1 offense has faced the #1 defense. the #1 defense is 4-1 SU in these meetings.
- on the other side of the ball, i genuinely think that Seattle's offense is better than Denver's defense.
- the extra week off is an advantage for the defensive-oriented Seahawks. extra time off often hurts offensive rhythm, especially passing game.
- in general, in both football and hoops, i look to back the more physical team. Seattle clearly is that.
- i have yet to see any opinion backing the Broncos that isn't 95% about Peyton Manning and him setting records and being "unstoppable."
- i think that Marshawn Lynch is the key to this game, even more than the 2 QBs. Denver's defense has lost a lot of talent to injury this season (one of the reasons that they've slowed tempo recently), and i don't think that they'll be able to stop Lynch.
- a couple of statistical items:
- DEN redzone offense #1 vs SEA RZ defense #1 compared to SEA RZ offense #12 vs DEN RZ defense #25
- DEN off YPA #2 vs SEA def YPA #1 compared to SEA off YPA #4 vs DEN def YPA #15
- about the only thing that i don't like is that that shitmouth Berman has Seattle 23-21 in his 10-minute-long "two minute drill." oh well. to paraphrase Woody Allen, the model wants what the model wants.

In the end, my model says Seahawks and the public like Broncos. I'll play that angle 1u every time.

Wow thank you so much for your detailed respond man, I greatly appreciate.

[BiffTFinancial]

We had freezing rain last night followed by two inches of snow. It took me the same five minutes that it always does to run out for bagels this morning. Take note, Atlanta. Perhaps I should be your next mayor...

[BiffTFinancial]

Wow thank you so much for your detailed respond man, I greatly appreciate.

Anytime! I am such a nerd, i literally live for questions like that (esp on weekend when i have time to answer). Frankly, i enjoy handicapping much more than wagering.

And i am hardly an NFL expert, but these are my thoughts/reasoning.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff - looks like a good day to fade Bearcats? Prime let down spot after road win @ Lville....

I have Cincy by about 12, something like 66-54. Lean USF but probably pass. When USF loses, they can get completely pasted. Last 6 losses by 22, 39, 7, 17, 9 and 15. They did cover vs Cincy at home recently (lost by 7, spread was 8). I do think that it's USF or nothing. USF 1H might be even better option than full game, as i think that let down will be more apparent 1H. UC may think that they can simply show up for 1H then turn it on 2H here. BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* William & Mary +1 (-112)

Sunday 2.2.2014 updated card
1* Purdue +3'
1* Virginia +4
1* William & Mary +1 (-112)

[Madison]

Intriged by Bankers tease. Sea + 8.5 and under 53'.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 2.2.2014 final card
1* Purdue +3' - LOSER
1* Virginia +4 - WINNER
1* William & Mary +1 (-112) - WINNER

Tribe wins! 81-79, W&M over JMU. Second W over Dukes this season and in Harrisonburg, that is not a common occurrence.

2-1 +0.9u

49-38-2 +7.69u Hoops season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Intriged by Bankers tease. Sea + 8.5 and under 53'.

Hmmm......

[BiffTFinancial]

Intriged by Bankers tease. Sea + 8.5 and under 53'.

I can get +7'/under 53' for -105. if i want 8', i have to pay -128, no chance of that. still, 7'/under 53' looks solid. at any rate, glad to see that Banker sees the game as i do, Seahawks and under.

[BiffTFinancial]

I can get +7'/under 53' for -105. if i want 8', i have to pay -128, no chance of that. still, 7'/under 53' looks solid. at any rate, glad to see that Banker sees the game as i do, Seahawks and under.

played +7'/under 53' 1u, posted in football thread

[BiffTFinancial]

also playing a prop: Seattle third downs converted over 5 (+105)

[BiffTFinancial]

Passing tonight. Have some leans but haven't had time to put in the work.

Leans:
Northeastern +5
Xavier +9
XU/Nova over 147'
XU TT over 69
ND/Cuse under 129'
Iowa State +7

[Madison]

played +7'/under 53' 1u, posted in football thread

We got lucky. But hey, gone the other way enough. Thx Bank!!

Google the article about the guy that hit safety as the first score 2 of the 3 last years. Lottery like.

http://msn.foxsports.com/buzzer/story/guy-wins-25-000-on-safety-in-super-bowl-for-a-second-time-020314

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 2.4.2014
1* James Madison +6' (-105)
1* Georgia Tech/Clemson under 120
1* Missouri +12'

[Tacklin Fuel]

Biff - Buckeyes confidence back after road win @ Wisky. I think Thad gets these guys going tonight. I like we have a very good showing tonight and will be in this game all the way to end.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff - Buckeyes confidence back after road win @ Wisky. I think Thad gets these guys going tonight. I like we have a very good showing tonight and will be in this game all the way to end.

I hope you're right. I worry that they don't have the offense to hang in Iowa City. Pass for me but certainly will be watching.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Wisconsin/Illinois over 129' (-105)

posting from road. Will clean up card once I get home.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 2.4.2014 updated card
1* James Madison +6' (-105)
1* Georgia Tech/Clemson under 120
1* Missouri +12'
1* Wisconsin/Illinois over 129' (-105)

[Madison]

Biff, have you looked at the SJ/Prov total?? I want to go over , but conflicted.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, have you looked at the SJ/Prov total?? I want to go over , but conflicted.

I didn't get to that one and just now saw your post, sorry. Don't have much time to get on SBR during the day, but try to jump on around lunch whenever i can. If you ever want thoughts on a total, post up and I'll be happy to run it through my two models. Off the top of my head, lean over.

[Madison]

Sux..passed

[Tacklin Fuel]

O-H!!!!

[BiffTFinancial]

O-H!!!!

I-O!!

[BiffTFinancial]

Sux..passed

Ugh, sorry didn't look see your post earlier.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 2.4.2014 final card
1* James Madison +6' (-105) - LOSER
1* Georgia Tech/Clemson under 120 - WINNER
1* Missouri +12' - WINNER
1* Wisconsin/Illinois over 129' (-105) - WINNER

3-1 +1.95u

Season to date: 52-39-2 +9.64u

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday early leans
Nebraska +13
St. Joe's +1
Duquesne +10'
W&M -3'
CofC +5'
UVA -14/1H
Evansville -2
Purdue -2
Boise -1'
Colorado State -1
Stanford +4

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 2.5.2014
1* Duquesne +10 (-105)
1* Virginia first half -7'
1* Evansville -2 (-105)
1* Boise State -2

[Madison]

See how this goes. Been real busy so no real capping (or bet) but liked Oakie at WV. GL tonight Biff!