CK' Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans fo Monday 2/2/09

[jaymac82980]

guys. I plan on going BIG this week. so I will start this week with some already booked plays. Here is what I have already locked in...
Orlando -7.5 (500)
Teaser Orlando -3.5/Lakers -2 (500)
Davidson -18.5 (500)
Parlay Davidson -18.5/Orlando -7.5 (100 to win 260)
Parlay Orlando -7.5/Lakers -6 (200 to win 520)

thats what is locked in for now. More to come as tomorrow nights' games near.

Big week guys. we WILL win this week!

[gameday10]

just a little side note, when CK's secret plays cover 1H, the team is 1-3 when covering the 2H. Just checked on the 4 secret plays he has posted since he has been in ncaa. I believe it has been just 4.

[pho3nix32]

Picked up the win today with the under for Cavs/Pistons. Let's get another one tomorrow:

line: lal@nyk 225.5
pick: 225.5 over

The line seems to be a bit high but for a reason. The over is 15-5 and 14-4 for the Lakers this season when playing against teams with a losing record and poor defensive teams respectively. Now that Bynum is out, look forward for the Lakers to go with the pace of the Knicks. Both teams will be shooting the lights out tomorrow ladies and gents!

[jayc88]

[50lipa]

Phoenix i'm with you on that but doesn't that seem a little bit less likely because of the last game going heavy in the over aswell?

Gj on the last game, had the under with cavs ML and cashed it in.

[BiggDogg5n2]

I will be on my way back to California around 5:00am or so...with a paper bag full of money. Many blessings CK Mafia. Let's get it!

And as a side note, fill in the blanks with good handicapping and no crazy stuff. It's time for peace. Agree to disagree and let the factionalism go. We're all here for the same purpose...

CK....
Bring home that hefty sack of cash....It couldn't happen to a nicer guy....Thanks for all the info and for helping me to better cap games and manage my money ...
You are a born leader...
and a proven money-maker... BOL today to you and everyone who contributes to helping me and others make that green......God bless....Dogg

[showtime2000]

Just saw that Lalime is in net for Buffalo tonight. with a GAA of over 3 and likewise for Gigeurre(if he goes) the over in ANA/BUF might be a play too.

[ANDYW15]

My plays for today

Magic -7 110 to win 100
Jazz -8 110 to win 100 N.B - D Wills is now out but I have already made the bet unfortunately
Davidson -10.5 1H (CK secret play) 220 to win 200
NYK/LAK over 225.5 110 to win 100

small parlay of the above for 40

Edit

further plays added

Warriors +5 120 to win 100
Iona -1 110 to win 100
Pucks - Cal -1.5 100 to win 190
Sabres/Ana over 5.5

That's it so far. GL guys, let's have another winning week

[peetlui]

Booked plays:

ncaa
Davidson -10.5 (1st 1/2)
Davidson -17.5 (1pt buy)
Iona -1.5 (.5 buy)
nba
Lakers -3.5 (2pt buy)
Lakers -.5/Spurs +.5 (5pt teaser)
nhl
Anaheim -130

Gl to all

[khaliagent]

hockeytown, great picks yesterday...you have definitely earned the top hockey capper status

[SamsNCharge99]

guys. I plan on going BIG this week. so I will start this week with some already booked plays. Here is what I have already locked in...
Orlando -7.5 (500)
Teaser Orlando -3.5/Lakers -2 (500)
Davidson -18.5 (500)
Parlay Davidson -18.5/Orlando -7.5 (100 to win 260)
Parlay Orlando -7.5/Lakers -6 (200 to win 520)

thats what is locked in for now. More to come as tomorrow nights' games near.

Big week guys. we WILL win this week!

Yo Jay, don't forget

32 Man Tourney Round 1 jaymac82980 vs. secret007et007

[solobass]

alright i am back after a short hiatus there. saturday i got my A$$ handed to me, but did ok yesterday and recovered quite nicely. right now i am working on the model still, using stricter criteria to filter out more games as i believe that is what killed me on saturday. tearing through almost a fifth of grey goose will straighten your thoughts out for sure. why am i on sbr and on the CK thread? because capping, endless hours of math and concentration is pretty damn boring that is why. it is definitely not the glamorous life in the movies, except for spending the winnings! also, you guys are some great cappers and i have learned much here on many sports and many methods. i will keep posting my picks, but keeping the bloviated math and system analysis musings to a small fraction because i do believe that people just want winners and could care less about the other stuff. best of luck today and i hope everyone has fully recovered from their hangovers!

[GreatDanes52]

What do you guys think of Manhattan getting 3 at Marist? I go to Marist and they really are not good at all this year.

[esz04]

Solo, I really think that chasing in the second half makes sense ONLY if the team has an incentive to cover that amount. I don't know what the cutoff point should be and my math skills are not even close to yours, but I think that there should be some point as when to chase and when to not. Maybe if the favorite misses the first half cover by 3 points or less, lay off? Just a thought.

[Killer Chihuahua]

Solo,

keep bringing that "other stuff" in here. Thats what makes the good cappers GREAT. Knowing the real workings and numbers of the systems and methods is why Im here. If all I wanted was winning picks, I would subscribe to a service. The real fun (besides cashing the ticket) is working the game and figuring out for yourself who will win. All your work and insight is a plus for this board. I would rather read a 3page essay from you on how to capp games or alter a system than to read 300 threads of who has the bigger pee pee! Keep up all the work you do.....

[MrMonkey]

CK, just want to thank you for opening my eyes to Rutgers Sat.? Can't watch games you could say at all (night work) always bet on big games which sucks! Never follow anyone blindly but looked at Knights info and that made a sweet 3rd game!

MrMonkey

[cocknocker]

I'm back ladies and gentlemen. We left around 3 this morning to compensate for normal Bay Area traffic and beat it except for a little bit around Fairfield. I have already checked my PM's, and gotten back to those people.

And now it's time to address the thread with the same answer I gave to one of the questions, and what I see is not a huge mismatch, but a nice mismatch for the Lakers 1st half. I keep coming up with the number +3.5 differential on average for 1st half production for the Lakers by comparing overall averages for the whole season between these two teams. Then I look up the average combined 1st half scores for their games and I find Lakers 51.8 New York 48, a 3.8 advantage for the Lakers. I am not so interested in the game spread at all. But the Lakers will outwork the Knicks early...

[lambogb]

isnt bynum a big part of that early scoring

[schaapattack]

Great job in football ck...lets make some money...looks like your a money makin' machine.....all bs aside your input is appreciated.

[cocknocker]

Mr. Monkey what I am doing with Rutgers and Seton Hall is exactly what the Missus does with Sacramento and Charlotte. I am chain betting with the two sorriest teams that I can find in one conference and focusing on their tendencies. The Big East is a tough conference, but with those two teams being what they are it is obvious that I have to take them into account for getting a bizarre amount of points due to the public perception that this team is horrible. Then I have to know when they will get blown out because of the needs of the team that will be facing them. Like a Pittsburgh coming off of two losses and playing one of these teams at home for instance. Or a Pittsburgh going to play one of these two teams after blowing out two teams before facing one of these teams, and knowing the public they would get too comfortable and take Pittsburgh -13 in a game at Seton Hall on a warm Saturday

[BmoreBucco]

Rolling to a party like now, thought I'd share my props for today. Sorry, just copy, paste, get my drink on!

Here we go Steelers, Here we go!

StraightFeb 01NBA [28127] TOTAL o16½-115 (T PRINCE PTS+RBDS vrs T PRINCE PTS+RBDS)StraightFeb 01NFL [171] TOTAL o3½-155 (S HOLMES RECEPTIONS vrs S HOLMES RECEPTIONS)StraightFeb 01NFL [28182] TOTAL u50½-115 (M BERGER LONGEST PUNT vrs M BERGER LONGEST PUNT)StraightFeb 01NFL [28208] K WARNER THROW INT 1ST +115 (as opposed to TD)

Not gonna lie, still drunk. You know how you win a bet and then you think "Damn, I knew I should have bet more on that MFer?". Well most of the time it is just hindsight being 20/20. But being a ridiculously diehard Steelers fan, I actually know that Mitch Berger wasn't only not likely to have a punt 0ver 50 yards, he isn't even capable!

Looking back, I actually feel like the books scared me off putting more on it because I was thinking, "What do they know that I don't?" You know?

[cocknocker]

lambogb,

The Bynum injury is the only reason why the line isn't higher. They haven't been weakened any by his injury at all actually. The Lakers made it to the NBA finals witout his servies last year. More Kobe in the 1st half is never a problem. The Bynum shots have to go to someone else, why not him. Bynum's production will be replaced.

[solobass]

CK glad you had a great trip! the only comment i have is the knicks are a slightly different beast with gallinari, so the early season knicks data might not be as relevant as the numbers over the last 3 weeks. gallinari is a player, defense offense rebounding steals etc. plus lee and harrington have been rolling as well. this goes with my general method of handicapping the nba, as i only use rolling 4 week data unless the lineup and rotation has been stable for longer than that (rarely happens).

[TheLemonDropKid]

2 Plays only for Monday


Davidson-19.5 BIG
Davidson-10.5 1st half Secret PlayBIG
Lakers-3 1st half


This game shouldn't even be close. I am going out on the town this evening, so i am putting up the plays for tomorrow now. Cheers gentlemen! And let's keep the peace

It's time for my final week here on the NCAA threads, and I will keep my record for this week updated on the way out of the door from Sunday to Sunday excluding my Super Bowl bets which were great and prosperous. Only 3 losses the entire NFL postseason. Overall 15-4 including my prop bets and straight wagers, with a 9-3 record through the NFL Playoffs challenge for the games through the Champonship Round. 6-1 in Super Bowl wagers. 18-5 with 3 passes on games for college bowl game spreads. CK Secret Plays for NCAA football 39-9 ats for the full season. Not a bad end to the football postseasons. Time to get on to zoning in with great focus on the NBA now, so this will be my final week on the NCAA threads, so starting it off...

NCAA Plays

2/1/09 (2-1)


CK Secret Play-o-Meter 27-6 ats

I will be on my way back to California around 5:00am or so...with a paper bag full of money. Many blessings CK Mafia. Let's get it!

And as a side note, fill in the blanks with good handicapping and no crazy stuff. It's time for peace. Agree to disagree and let the factionalism go. We're all here for the same purpose...

Hey CK.....you mentioned that you would be leaving this college thread as soon as tourney time rolls around and start focusing on NBA action. Will your threads in the NBA forum be as easy to find as these college ones??

And Hockeytown.....will you be going there as well?

I'm gonna follow you guys like a lost puppy!

I have to thank both of you for getting me out of a major jam.....

[solobass]

lambogb,

The Bynum injury is the only reason why the line isn't higher. They haven't been weakened any by his injury at all actually. The Lakers made it to the NBA finals witout his servies last year. More Kobe in the 1st half is never a problem. The Bynum shots have to go to someone else, why not him. Bynum's production will be replaced.

i do agree with your comments about bynum as his presence will be needed against teams with truly dominating front lines and the knicks are not quite there yet in that department. bynum loss does not hurt tonight.

[w9ii9]

Hello CK and mafia...you guys have an opinion on the Big East game tonight?

[cocknocker]

I see that the Tournament has started, time to go see if ther's any live betting that eeds to be done. Anyone who is invloved in the 32 Person Tournament had better get over there on the double. It's already under way and some guys are already losing because they forgot to participate. Should be a good show. It's about time for me to inspect what's going on and adjust live betting numbers accordingly.

[CP Thrizzle]

Welcome back CK! Wondering if you've already played Davidson game and 1H, or if you're waiting it out a little?

[BmoreBucco]

CK, no Orlando?

[BmoreBucco]

I see that the Tournament has started, time to go see if ther's any live betting that eeds to be done. Anyone who is invloved in the 32 Person Tournament had better get over there on the double. It's already under way and some guys are already losing because they forgot to participate. Should be a good show. It's about time for me to inspect what's going on and adjust live betting numbers accordingly.

If someone bails, I would be more than happy to take some people down. So you know.

[solobass]

also it was great gettin my buzz on and gettin down on the funky fender bass. definitely helped me get my mind right. here are my plays for the night

davidson -10.5 1st H (i know what a big surprise)
niagara +1.5 full game
kings/suns under 224.5
butler/wisc. green bay over 128.5

best of luck and cash those tickets!

[cocknocker]

w9ii9,

No opinion from me on that one. I am only working the two teams and Notre Dame this week. I have some games that I have penciled in that i will play this week for the Big East, Notre Dame on Wednesday, St.John's on Thursday, Notre Dame on Saturday again, and Rutgers on Sunday. I have noticed that i like wagering on Big East. But good luck with whatever side you choose in that game. I couldn't stop thinking about Davidison
raining threes.

I am on Davidson today. It's gonna get ugly in that one. They don't stop shooting 3's even when they're up by 25.

[cocknocker]

I already played both of my Davidson wagers online last night

[schaapattack]

Any thoughts on spurs tonight ck?

[Killer Chihuahua]

Solo,
HMMMMMM .... I have Iona capped to -5. Not happy to see you the other way! Might have to run this again.