Originally posted by RetardStrength
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Attaboy! Some of my best capping has been done after 6 or 7 White Russians.
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Lol I'm messin I'm not drunk been up since 8. Much to take care of on Saturdays.Originally posted by CapybaraLOL, definitely not tailing any drunks. Good luck, though, RS! When you sober up and put some research in today, hit us with something.
I'm on my phone so I lack with the write ups.
I wasnt sure if I even wanted to post a 12 play but Uconn getting so many points feels good.
If anything I apologize for posting it so late.Comment -
Ah, gotcha. I'd have thought UConn, but the vicious RLM scared me completely off and I almost even took Pitt. I figured I'll just make it a no-play since no need to rush things with 8,000 games today!Originally posted by RetardStrength
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Good thinkin. I always get caught with an early play. Makes me think it will paint a picture for how my day will goComment -
1 winComment -
27-16-1 +12 Units
Play 2
Boise St -2
BOLComment -
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Thanks for your games and the time you spend as we are following you. GL today on your picks.Comment -
YTD 27-17-1 +11 Units
I'm Back!
I had to take a break for a little bit and re-group. Aside from ups and downs in this thread, I hadn't been doing so well, especially last Sat. I just couldn't get a win with the exception of a small play here and there. Some plays I thought to be solid lost, and I went down pretty big. Decided it's time to step back. Good to take a break every now and then...
I have two plays for you today. Some of these games are gonna be a lot of fun to watch. I'm looking to go 2-0 tonight!!! I have a good feeling. I just can't seem to nail 2 plays in a night, but tonight is the night!!!
For my first play, I like the Demon Deacons to cover against NC State tonight in their house. The ACC is a tough place to play and with that being said, and as we've witnessed, all of these teams bring a whole other level of intensity at their court. Wake is a team with its ups and downs and a 2 game skid in the ACC lately getting handled at Clemson and then a tough, one point loss at Va Tech, and now they find themselves towards the bottom of the conference, instead of somewhere in the middle where they essentially belong.
NC St has proven they shoot the ball extremely well, and therefore don't struggle much to put up points. They scored 84 against Duke in a win at home and then put up a measly 50 points in a loss to Maryland, shooting a mere 31%. Again, I blame the environment... I paint a similar picture for this game tonight. Wake will play tough, the crowd will be extremely loud, and I think they keep it very close to the end. I see NC St with a W at the end of regulation but with a few free throws I see it at a 4-6 point win. 7 is just too many!!! Not to mention NC St welcomes UNC at home around the corner, another "big name" in the ACC I'm sure they'd love to beat, so I anticipate them thinking ahead a little bit...
My Play: Wake Forest +7 @ Home against NC State - 1 Unit
My next play is a team that has really found themselves... Memphis could easily be in first place in the conference USA, it's just they've played less inter-conference games than Southern Miss, and won't have the opportunity to face them for another 5 games... So it's in their best interest to really keep pounding these Conf USA teams that sit towards the bottom of the conference rankings.
They pounded ECU by 13, they pounded UAB by 16, they pounded Rice by 26.... They beat a decent Harvard squad by 10... I think with them being at home tonight, they continue the DD win streak going... Tulane averages about 66 points and Memphis is averaging over 73 a game. Tulane with a very impressive outing against a good Tulsa squad but it was evident Tulsa had no answer for Tarrant and Davis. When single players make efforts like that, you wonder what the coach was thinking. This is where Pastner comes in. I think he is definitely one of the best coaches in this conference, finding exceptional ways to balance his talent and match up with all opponents through the entire season. A couple losses to some very strong teams very early in the season, they then played Louisville somewhat close, and they've been playing much better ball after that. It's like they've found themselves!!!
The line is sharp but I see Memphis winning this one by 16 or 17, so I'm taking the points at home...
My Play 2: Memphis -14 @ Home vs Tulane - 1 Unit
BOL tonight everyone!!!Comment -
I took NC State in a ml parlay for tonight, and now im scared!
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Nice season so far, Retard Good luck to you.Comment -
THIS.Originally posted by Louisvillekid1I took NC State in a ml parlay for tonight, and now im scared!
wish I had checked in with you before booking it, RS. I had made that habit for a bit. got a little over zealous this AM.
BoL on your play though. Hope we both hit.Comment -
Don't be... As I mentioned in my play, I think they still get the W... I just think they will have to grind it out... The Home Court advantage in the ACC is absolutely, positively a big one...Originally posted by Louisvillekid1I took NC State in a ml parlay for tonight, and now im scared!
On Paper, NC St should not have beat Duke... Duke travels into their environment, crowd is insane, NC St plays with more confidence than they've played with all year, shoots well, Duke struggles from the 3 pt line, frustrating play (fouls) and a little help from the guys in Black and White stripes... Recipe for Dukes only and worst loss they will probably have all year...
Flip the coin... Look at Dukes home wins. Is Cameron not the most insane place to play!!?? What about Dean Smith arena?? Even this not so tough UNC squad plays great at home... NC St traveled to MD and LOST. I liken that spot to tonights game. The LJVMC is not an easy place to play and the crowd is going to be nuts!!!
I like your parlay... I DON'T like NC St to cover 7 points...Comment -
Originally posted by RetardStrength
Laying the points... I think. Thanks for sharing!
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LOL Yup sorry for my wording... Been crazy busy with work. Put some time in on the numbers and did a quick but informative write up as best I could!!!Originally posted by Joe Sharp Laying the points... I think. Thanks for sharing! Comment -
Wow just WOW. I had faith Wake would make it close in the 2nd half but I never thought NC St would go totally flat. No urgency till the end.
What did I say about the home court advantage in the ACC!!? It's astonishing.
Now pick it up Memphis!!!Comment -
28-18-1 +11 Units
Well played Tulane. As Memphis was sluggish through 3/4 of the game, they fell short of covering the spread, but still got a DD win. Unfortunately, I was on the side of Memphis covering... Big win for Wake Forest. Down 12 at the half, I knew they'd likely put up a fight and I still felt confident about the cover, but I did not foresee such domination and total let down by NC St until late in the game, when they suddenly realized they were down 10 points!!
I still want a 2-0 night, so I'm going to make 2 more plays tonight. I know I've been going against my, "1 play a day" but I'm still firing right around 60% and with some good posted plays, I intend to swell that number...
My first play for the night is none other than Duke... I just can't seem to avoid this spot. Everyone and their mother claiming Miami will have the answer for the Blue Devils tonight, playing on their home court, but I'm picking some other angles, and taking Duke to cover a low line...
So first and foremost, as I mentioned in my plays yesterday, the ACC has a big time home court advantage. While I find this to be true, I also find some teams handling it much better than others... Yes, Duke's only loss comes against a NC St team at their house in a game where the home team was honestly doing EVERYTHING right... I don't expect the same out of Miami this evening.
Tonights game will feature some of the better back court play in the ACC. Miami's overall field goal percentage sits about 4% lower than Dukes, and Duke has almost a 1% lower opponent allowed FG%. With those two combined, my numbers has Duke winning this game comfortably. However, now you factor in the home court crowd, early televised spot, etc. Which team comes out and shoots better? I see some "loose" play from Miami tonight. Quicker to shoot the 3, while Duke will look to control their possessions and control the crowd, and get overall better shots. If anything, they learned a lot from the game at NC St. Coach K learned a lot from that game, and he will have a plan on both sides of the ball tonight.
At to that, the pressure of Miami sitting at the #25 overall spot, riding the "ranked fringe" although they are UNDEFEATED in the ACC... Another reason I like Duke tonight. The pressure riding Miami to maintain the top spot in the ACC, taking out #1 Duke and climbing the rankings ladder is much heavier than the pressure on Duke to merely maintain the #1 ranking overall. Duke doesn't want to drop another inter-conference game to an inferior opponent, and they will show it tonight...
My Play 1: Duke -3 @ Miami - 1 Unit
For my second play of the night, it is a play that I just can't seem to ignore... The St Josephs Hawks have been playing some "better" basketball but they don't create the same buzz they used to. No one talks about this team anymore. They've faded away, have a 10-6 record but can't do much in the A10, so there's not much to talk about. Not that the Bonnies record is anything to write home about, but I feel there is more pressure on the Hawks to perform tonight, in their small arena, and get notoriety in the A10 where some other "Philadelphia" schools sit higher in the rankings. I do expect a win out of them tonight, but I expect this to be close.
Need the Bonnies to move the ball well, and shoot the ball well, and put up close to their average of 72 points per game. I also need St Joes to put up close to their average (70 points) and giving them a little wiggle room since St Bona seems to allow opponents to score quite a bit. The hawks will come out sluggish tonight, after handling a miserable Penn squad at home, not having to travel anywhere, and seeing another home game against big name, undefeated in the A10, Xavier this Saturday... They will expect to walk in and out of this game with a win, and really start to focus on the big matchup around the corner.
I don't see the Bonnies continuing to play the roll of "Philly-killer" (after a nice win over Temple) but I expect them to keep this game close. Hagan arena can be favorable for teams like this, used to playing in a smaller environment. The crowd will be loud, but again, I don't see this home spot as some remarkable advantage for St Joes.
My Play 2: St Bonaventure +8 @ St Josephs - 1 Unit
BOL on all of your plays!!Comment -
dammit excellent writing,
We have completely different views on the St Joes game though.
I dont want anything to do w/ that duke/miami matchup but I'll be rooting for you.
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Nice hit yesterday on Wake. I didn't tail but I was watching what you played. I had MSU and Kansas. I like Duke tonight in this spot. Will take a second look at St. Bonaventure. I also like Bucknell -6. I posted a write-up on another page about it. Hey anyhow BOL tonight! Its time we all get back on fire.Comment -
I took Kansas and MSU last night as well. I'm still hesitating to make "big names" a PPOTD, but I'm moving away from that theory with the Duke play tonight...Originally posted by Flyinghigh
I saw your write-up on the Bucknell play.. I just can't personally bring myself to touch the Patriot league.Comment -
Hey retard strength,
I was just curious, what did you pay for -3 tonight on Duke?
Thanks good luckComment -
looks like a 1-1 night...duke laying eggs tonight.Comment -
Wow is duke serious???!! They can't even make a FT!!!!
Shiva, my local has everything -110
Yes, my +units don't account for juice. It's more of a win/loss tracker than a unit tracker...Comment -
18% shooting at the half
Fukk you Duke or should I say Dike
Bonnie's rolling.
I'm convinced ill never go 2-0 on posted plays.Comment -
You have been doing a good job RT. I did notice the last couple days you have been hitting the Underdog + points ATS teams as opposed to the favorite teams ATS. For example, you hit Wake Forest +7 yesterday and Bonnies +8 looking good today, and yesterday Memphis -14 did not cover and Duke -3 today did not cover obviously. I'm too lazy to go back to look what your record would be if you only picked dogs.Comment -
Thanks!!Originally posted by TheAntFather
I should go back and look. This is the time of year where it is typically easier to pick dogs to cover. All of the inter conference play.
I run numbers and factor in certain things, but as seen tonight, there is absolutely nothing you can do when a team flat out fails to show up. Duke got exposed tonight in my opinion, for the second time...
I say exposed in that they rely so heavily on their ability to shoot and when they can't, they're lost... On both ends of the floor. Defense becomes bad and the entire starting offense loses its confidence. Miami was in the bonus with 15 minutes left in the second half.
Duke is clearly a team that struggles with adversity. This will become their downfall come tourny time. They may have held the #1 ranking a few times this year but there are a several teams hovering in the top 10 that are flat out better than Duke.
I'm treading lightly on them in the future, even at Cameron. ACC squads won't be scared of Duke at this point. They aren't anything super special in this conference.Comment -
Enjoy your thread keep up the good work.Comment -
Great call on the bonies!Comment -
29-19-1 +11 Units
Bonnies showed up, Duke was somewhere in North Carolina still... Not sure who those guys were in Miami...
2 plays tonight... I'm gonna go 2-0 at some point, I swear it!!!
First play will be on Utah. They sit at the bottom of the PAC-12 and they don't necessarily belong there. A stretch of very tough losses and it was clear in the last 2 games after losing 3 nail biters to inter-conference teams, including then #3 Arizona, they were just not there mentally, and dropped 2 more to USC and then Wash St. Two teams they were capable of beating, no doubt. They then travel to a very tough Washington team, sitting towards the top of the PAC-12 and they handle them by 9 points... I think this was a real re-grouping for Utah. They are a team that honestly shoots the ball very well, but they don't put up a ton of points.. Shots are selective and the pace is slow... I think this will work in their favor tonight.
They welcome a Cal team that is honestly unimpressive on the road. Handled at Wisconsin, handled at UCLA, a win against a totally unpredictable USC team @ USC then they come home and get HANDLED by Washington. Their next road game, they get handled again by DD's at Stanford. I'm not impressed with their inconsistent play, especially on the road, and tonights spot will bode very tough for them, against a "good" PAC-12 team sitting at the bottom of the barrel waiting to really show some of these overall better ranked teams what they're capable of... Cal puts up more points per game, but they are allowing almost, on average, 4 more points a game than Utah allows. I like this stat. Utah also shoots almost, on average, 3% higher than Cal. I like this stat too... I see this game as close, low scoring, and the UNDER 126.5 should be considered... I see a total of around 55 points MAX by the half, and look for Cal to struggle a little bit in this loud Huntsman Center!
My Play 1: Utah +1 vs. Cal - 1 Unit
For my 2nd play of the day, I'm going out an another limb, but I'm predicting a DD win, and at that point, the current line seems very favorable. Ole Miss puts up A LOT of points and they rebound the ball extremely well. 3rd and 10th in the nation respectively. Two areas where Tenn LACKS...
Now don't get me wrong, Tenn is a tough defensive team, and they tend to lull their opponents into these low scoring games, but Ole Miss is only allowing an average of around 64 points to opponents, which is only 2 or so more than the average of 62 that Tenn allows. So as I crunch the numbers, I see Tenn holding Ole Miss 10 points below their scoring average, which lands them at around 72 points tonight. I see Tenn putting up less than their scoring average, at around 62 points, if they are lucky.
For Tenn to cover this spread, they better shoot lights out, and that is something they DON'T do, and Ole Miss will play them tough, at home, inter-conference sitting as a ranked team, undefeated in the SEC right behind a very very tough Florida squad. They MUST win these games and they must pound their opponents....
My Play 2 - Ole Miss -8.5 vs Tennessee
BOL everyone on your plays!!!Comment -
you should play 2nd halves more often....practically got ole miss to win the game for 2nd half...one of the easiest betsComment -
29-21-1 +9 Units
Early game...
My Play: Cuse -6.5 @ Nova - 1 Unit
BOLComment -
Hey RetardStrength let's go, get back on the horse.
Your one play a day was a good model stick with it.
We have all gone cold at one time or another, its no big deal.
Last year baseball I picked 10 teams and all 10 of them lost in one day.
How do you like them fuking apples?
BOLComment -
Anyone that calls himself retard strength and then turns around
and handicaps games must have something to offer.
GL
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LOL Shiva, thanks for the kind words. I did, in fact, take a hiatus from sports betting. Many games have become a little bit of a crapshoot and the angles/numbers were not producing results.
Let me have a look at the card and I may have a play.
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GL today RS!Comment
