Central Michigan looks garbage hopefully the Cincy play strokes or I'm gunna be hurtin
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25-14-1 +12 Units
Cincy....... What the ignorant FUKK.... Up 10 with 1 minute left... Wins by 5.. Fukk you Cincinnati. Fukk YOU!!! Shoots 60% for the game and gives the ball away 19 times... Hmmmmm... Got Fix??? If there was ever a way to NOT cover a 6 point spread, that is it!!!
I think most of us got hit hard yesterday. I loved Cent Mich but they failed me as well. You can't go down 20 and wait until the last 3 mins of the game to make a push... I stayed away from Indy, as well as Creighton, as well as Kentucky and I'm thankful I did... I made a very small play on Clemson so they prevented an 0'fer on the night...
I'm looking at today's card, and I like some things I am seeing... My confidence is somewhat low. I've been winning and then losing, winning and then losing, and outside of my posted plays I've been getting worked over (NFL/NBA)...
At this point I've cut my bets down significantly... Need to get the confidence back and really put myself on the right side of these lines!!!
Researching and balancing my actual job at the moment. I'll be back later...Comment -
Cashmier Wright got hurt for Cincy up 13 and cruising in the 2nd half and then the press got to them it should have been a easy cover Indiana losing fkd up my next 2 weeks so I'm done betting for a whileComment -
I was worried about Indy. I mentioned somewhere about Wisconsin and the 3 ball. They shot over 30% from the 3pt line hitting 7 and shot over 45% from the floor. A much better number over Indiana's 25% from 3 pt and 37% overall. That is a huge Big10 rivalry and while I thought Indiana would pull out a close win, they just couldn't get it done at home... Sorry for your loss. We all need to keep our chins up, even after taking a direct shot recently...Comment -
Best play of the day Evansville Aces +1.5 against a terrible Drake team. No way this is a close game.Comment -
Keep your head up, RS!
I like Evansville today too. they are a scrappy squad.Comment -
YTD 25-14-1 +12 Units
Will likely have 2 plays today, in an attempt to go 2-0 and really get my confidence back, and keep this record moving in a positive direction... I like that I'm sitting around 64%, as that is a good place to be, but as I look through some of my plays, there are certainly some games I've lost that I really still have confidence in (fukking cincy) and some where I wonder WTF I was thinking...
Play number 1 for today...
Looking at the Mizz Valley standings, there are some teams in the middle of the pack that match up today. Looking at it blindly, you may assume Indiana St will take Missouri St to the cleaners tonight, but I just don't feel that is the case. I'd call Missouri St's play this year, very inconsistent. They only have 5 wins, and some of their losses appear to be bad ones, while others have been very close losses. This includes one inter-conference overtime loss to a strong Evansville team and the other is to the owner of this conference, Creighton...
So Mizz St travels into Indiana St tonight, and I think Vegas has inflated this line due to Mizz St's overall record, and it's sitting over DD's. They are a team that has begun to play "better" lately and I think they look to capitalize and move things in the right direction tonight against a team they can honestly compete against in Indiana St. I'm blindly ignoring all games played by both teams prior to Dec 30th, and seeing that they are both 3-2 in games after that date, and noticing as well that Mizz St handled the same Southern Ill team on Dec 30th that went on to beat Indiana St just a few days ago.
Indiana St hosts Mizz St tonight and then they will host Evansville, who currently sits just ahead of both of these teams inter-conference. I think Ind St runs with the mentality tonight that they will win easily, and then prepare for Evansville, thus allowing Mizz St to come in and play with an absolute desire to win this game. Mizz St will have to travel and face Bradley this weekend so I think they come into tonight with a lot of confidence about these 2 inter-conference road games, and will fight to the last minute. I wonder about the mindset of the teams in this conference being that Creighton is the powerhouse they are. I think it creates opportunity for the rest of the teams to really play each other more closely than you might think. All of the above being said, Indiana St starting tonights game down 11-0 in the books is heavily in our favor...
I think Missouri St comes in tonight and exceeds their "averages" so far this year... They will shoot better tonight, they will rebound the ball better, and they will look to control and neutralize a fairly hot shooting guard in Jake Odum. If Indiana St comes out and struggles, and this game is close as we get towards the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, we will be smelling like win...
My play: Missouri St +11 @ Indiana St - 1 Unit
BOL
Look for one more comingComment -
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I'm looking at Temple -4 over GWU tonight. Thoughts? GWU has had a weak schedule whereas Temple has played straight up against Duke and Kansas and quality wins over syracuse, and villanova. -4 looks like a good play to me with an A-10 matchup and an overlooked line.Comment -
Posted Play of the day #2
Ok so I don't tend to post totals that often, but I play them somewhat often, and I do somewhat well. You can typically gauge how teams are going to come out and play each other, and what factors will determine just how well they shoot the ball...
Xavier is a team that shoots the ball exceptionally well, but they only average about 65 points per game. St Bonaventure is a team that has been shooting pretty decent so far this year, but they are averaging A LOT of points in over 70... The Bonnies sit towards the bottom of the A10, without an inter-conference win, and they welcome a tough opponent in Xavier to their floor tonight. The Bonnies are a team that opened the season quite strong, and have hit a proverbial wall in their last 5 games against some tough opponents, and a sprinkle of teams they could/should have beat. They didn't quite average their scoring totals that they had been experiencing earlier in the season, but I'm painting a different picture for this game tonight.
Xavier is a team that gives up an avg of ~60 pts per game, but St Bonaventure is a team that shoots the 3 ball pretty damn well. They'll be on their floor tonight, so they're going to come out FIRING!!! While Xavier is averaging ~65pts per game, they face a team tonight whose specialty is not necessarily defense or rebounding. I see Xavier going above and beyond their average tonight, and scoring 70+... With that being said, I see a 70 point effort from St Bonaventure tonight as well. This game should be kept close, a real shootout between these squads where the effort on defense will be minimal and the effort on offense will be exceptional. St Bonaventure will think the only way they can win this game is score more points (3 pointers) and score more often. Expect quicker possessions on both ends of the floor and while it could bode badly for an OVER bet, I'm angling "good" shooting % on both sides and therefore the cover.
The line sits at 131.5 but I see 138 to 140+ tonight...
My Play #2: St Bonaventure/Xavier OVER 131.5 - 1 Unit
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Rs going 2-0 tonight!
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xavier plays at a very slow pace...watch out.Comment -
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RS good luck tonight. I love this thread
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1 down. This over not lookin good. Bonnie's blow dixComment -
congrats on MIzzouri St and way to get a sharp line as wellComment -
26-15-1 +12 Units
A FG separated me and a 2-0 night.... 1 fukking fg.. If the Bonnies had played just a little more to their potential in the first half, the over was a gimme. Oh well, just my luck lately.
I'm looking at today's card and I have a play. I'm only going with 1. I still need some confidence boosting, so I want to get back to where I'm winning 2 and 3 or 4 plays in a row. I'm looking to make a smart decision tonight.
Louisiana Tech is a WAC Powerhouse at this point. For them to not be a DD favorite, at home, against a very questionable Idaho squad that gives up an Avg of around 68 points per game seems fishy. Vegas wants you to overthink this one and take Idaho and the points, but I smell a blowout. The Vandals play is inconsistent... Some decent wins, some close losses, and a somewhat impressive field goal % to date...
I think tonight paints a different picture for this Lou Tech team. They have to take care of business tonight, control the offensive and defensive boards, and then they have a cupcake on Saturday. They sit right behind the top spot in the conference, held by Utah St merely because they have less losses. Idaho finds itself towards the bottom and they will stay there. Tonights game, as well as Saturdays contest will be tough, and then they play the team who in last place in the division.
Idaho comes out tonight, guns blazing, but Louis Tech will have the defensive answer at home, and will keep them well below their avg FG % (my prediction). L Tech needs to play smarter ball tonight. Get the job done on the defensive end of the floor, and the offensive side will work itself out, as they are a team that certainly puts up points. Avg margin of victory is over 8 points so I'm liking that this line sits at 9, especially Lou Tech handled a team in New Mex St by just that margin. The same New Mex St team that just edged out Idaho, keeping their chins low for tonights matchup. Had they won that game, I may be on the other side, as they'd be riding an emotional high, and sitting much prettier in the conference standings.
My Play: Louis Tech -9 vs Idaho - 1 Unit
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Love it,
La tech very underrated squad, made me a pretty penny this year...Comment -
Been reading this thread for a bit, finally decided to tail for a unit... BOL
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texas a&m +10
san francisco ML +105
2 winners
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Latech sucksComment -
Love the thread
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Keep grinding, RS, this is a solid thread!
I actually cashed the La Tech 2H -8, hopefully some others of you grabbed that as well.Comment -
capy always hitting those 2h plays!
Fukkin idaho
Keep at it RS
are you on NW mL?Comment -
26-16-1 +11 Units
I don't have much to say about last night... Just left scratching my head. It seems, at least lately, I angle 3-4 plays which I consider for PPOTD, and I don't like to just play big name spots. I liked Michigan last night, Northwestern to cover, and the auto fade of St. Peters since they proved just how abysmal they are, and narrowed my strongest play down to LA Tech... Low and behold, they sleep through ~38 mins of the game, and fall short on the cover... All of my other "leans," money...
I'm going to use tonight to really think about what I want to do tomorrow. I will have at least 2 plays, and I want a strong day.
Thanks for the encouragement, and I'll keep doing my absolute best!!!Comment -
26-16-1 +11 Units
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I'm still drunk
UCONN +10.5.
Too many points
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