good luck RS, subbed and will be following
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San Jose St
Nice call man! Well deserved after some rough beats..
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Yea been gettin worked here and there lately. Teams folding on me late in games!!!!
Glad we got this one tonight. I'm still a little bummed I honestly thought SJ St could pull out a W but being inside that spread is what matters to my pockets!
I'm gonna have at least two plays in here tomorrow. I know the title says 1 but I had a great night tonight I wanna share more of my strong plays!!!Comment -
I take that cover anyday
and the public was all over Utah St tonight so I really liked this pick. Good job!
With 152 games or something like that(?) on the board tomorrow it's not that strange if you find two that you like.
Cheers
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winner! thx retardComment -
23-12 +12 Units
PPOTD Número Uno
In the gym, on my phone... No long write up. Basically, K St too balanced for this overconfident West Va squad coming off that BS win against Texas.
K St a real Big 12 contender. The line says all they need to do is win. And they will
My play:
Kansas St -1 @ West Va - 1 Unit
BOLComment -
Good call, RS. lets do this!Comment -
PPOTD Número Dos
Wyoming +1.5
No write up. They are better than Nevada. I am not sure how they don't win outright.
My Play:
Wyoming +1.5 @ Nevada - 1 Unit
BOLComment -
YTD 24-12-1 +13 Units
A damn push in the K St. What a joke...
At least we got that Wyoming W. that line was mighty confusing... Not sure how they were a dog. Easy money...
See you guys tomorrow. Just hit on the Ravens +9 and hoping to cash on the Pack!!!
BOLComment -
good work todayComment -
24-12-1 +13 Units
Mother penetrating packers. Ruined what would have been a great night betting. I'm hungover as shit so it's gonna be short and sweet today...
Changing my play... UMASS has injuries. Take St Peters in the MAAC!! Line is backwards.
My play: St Peters +2 @ Siena - 1 Unit
BOLComment -
Do yourself a favor and only bet on home teams in NCAA. The homecourt advantage is too strong.Comment -
you'll rebound tomorrow. I have faith.Comment -
Definitely not true. Depending on when you catch the line (I usually catch them as soon as they release opening lines and make my picks from there unless I wait for a specific move), but from opening lines Saturday, I think I counted 51 away teams that won ATS. Given that Legends only posted 104 games yesterday, that's barely under 50% of away teams that won ATS, plus another 6 games that were pushes. Taking out pushes, that would make it 51 away ATS wins out of 98 games (52% in favor of road teams).
Friday, 4 of the 6 games on Legends for Away team wins ATS (67%). Thursday 23 out of 43 (1 being a push) for 54.7%. Tuesday 5 of 11. Today looks like it's working in your favor, only 3 of the 11 games played so far went to the away team. Those five days combined, Away teams won ATS 50.88% of the time, making you think Vegas really knows what it's doing! haha
BOL fellas! Win that paper!Comment -
24-13-1 +12 Units
I am a little pissed at myself. I forced a play yesterday when I didn't really like the card. Bailed on UMASS and while they looked like they were gonna cover easily, late suspect play allowed the backdoor cover of the opposing team, so I would have suffered a loss either way. If there is any advice I can share with you guys and MYSELF, it is to stay away from these MUTT teams... They are total toss-ups. Bad teams play bad ball, and it's anyone's game. Vegas takes a shot in the dark on the spread and there is not much angling, and I would've been better off flipping a coin than picking what I "believed" to be the better team in St Pete's...
Home teams did well yesterday but there is a time and place to really weigh "home court advantage" when angling these games, and the spread, especially inter-conference. Television being one of the biggest factors. Crowds are twice as hyped at home when the game is televised. In the less popular spots, the home court is really not as big of a factor, as seen in the stats provided by sigtauslimer... When I angle, it's really more about match-ups and strength of schedule, and upcoming schedule. Which games will mean the most? Which team needs a win the most? Which team has the better coach? Etc. Home court "advantage" in college bball is a consideration, but not a huge one, all depending on the line, of course.
Moving forward. I've looked at today's card and I don't want to play anything ATS. The card is too tiny and doesn't have a lot of value and I'm taking my own advice from yesterday. Louis feels like an obvious play but UCONN has proven, especially lately, they are a team to talk about in the Big East, and I don't like that Louis has to travel to their house in a televised spot. 6.5 points is just too many to try and find a place on either side.
I do have a play for you, today. I like the UNDER 142.5 in the Kansas/Baylor spot... A matchup between BIG 12 Undefeated teams, on television, in the late spot. I think Kansas comes out a little slow here and Baylor comes out firing... What I'm banking on is poor fg % here... I think both teams come out and shoot below 40-43% to start the game and can see a total of ~60-65 points at the half.
The line speaks volumes for how they play, fast paced ball between two teams who are shooting at very high percentages, but when you put two teams against each other in a televised spot, and neither of them wants to lose their first inter-conference game, nerves play a major role... Not to mention all of the upsets we experienced this weekend, so Baylor probably feels like they have a major edge here and a lot of confidence. There are no longer any unbeatens in college bball so now the playing field is somewhat even for all of these 1 loss teams...
My Play: Kansas/Baylor UNDER 142.5 - 1 Unit
BOL!Comment -
good luckComment -
Nice call.. NAILED it!
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25-13-1 +13 Units
Wow, just WOW. Things could not have gone better, based on my angle for this UNDER.... Kansas came out pounding the ball inside, and got an early lead, while Baylor struggles mightily to get the ball in the hoop, shooting around 20% in the first half!!!! Only 53 points total at the half and you knew we had this one in the bag! Closing stats were 37% shooting for Kansas, and a measly 23% for Baylor!!! UNREAL! It was clear this game was just a little too big for Baylor, and they played some very ugly basketball.
I love today's card. I'm having a tough time picking just one of these games... I've narrowed it down to what I feel is a strong Big East play for tonight.
Cincinnati's record proves a few things:
1. They are a "good" team that is creating just a little bit of buzz in the Big East. They sit at 2-2 and their 2 losses are very very close ones. Realistically, they should have had a W against St Johns after a horrendous effort FG% wise from EVERY line on the floor... Still only losing by 1 point, it's one I'm sure they want back!
2. Cincinnati has proven they play better on the road, than at home. Their 2 Big East wins are a big one @ Pitt and a DD win @ Rutgers... Their 2 Big East losses are at home to St Johns and #20 Notre Dame, where they put up a strong effort and it was almost anyones game.
So tonight they travel to Depaul. Depaul is not a "bad" team but they have a very tough Big East road ahead... They sit towards the bottom of the standings with 1 Big East win and 2 losses. They got handled by UCONN and suffered a very close loss to Seton Hall, a team that also sits towards the bottom of the Big East standings.
The truth here is, weighing the above, and the fact that Cincinnati NEEDS this game to continue to hang in the shadows right behind 4 top 25 teams in this tough conference, they have a lot to prove. I expect continued strong play on the road, and I expect them to DOMINATE the boards, both offensively and defensively. Depaul with very little second chance points so if they struggle offensively they are going to be in trouble early, and I don't see Cincinnati letting off the gas. Cincy looks to hammer these lesser Big East teams in this spot, and win this game tonight by DD's!!!!
My Play: Cincy -6.5 @ Depaul - 1 Unit
BOLComment -
What other games you like I'm trying to close out a ML parlay that has Indiana and Creighton the 3rd is the tricky one. I don't trust Kentucky at all but might have to go with them to pay half of what I bet.Comment -
Right now Cent Mich on the road. The Mid American is anyones conference at the moment, with the exception of the teams sitting at the bottom. I don't think E. Mich can hang in this spot. Cent Mich looking to climb the inter-conference ladder they sit right behind Toledo in the West and they are better than Toledo, even though they suffered a tough overtime loss to them that was a total shootout... I almost wonder if they weren't thinking they'd just handle Toledo and then handle E Mich and get ready for Ball St. Well guess what, they lost, so now it's time to get it together or fall to the bottom of the conference where they don't want to be...Comment -
Nice I may tail both of these in different plays besides the ML parlay I need a bounceback week after the disaster which was last weekend. Friggin playoffsComment -
Good luck to you. I went into this past weekend up pretty big, and got DESTROYED on Sat with college bball and then worked even worse on Sunday. I don't think I hit a single play on Sunday besides the Texans/Pats OVER... It was a brutal weekend for me. I need a good week myself!Comment -
Same here up 4 units going into Saturday ML parlay got fd up by Broncos, Badgers finally shot good and blew out Illinois and the Pack got worked that killed. Then I ignored the fishy Ohio St. line and went double or nothing on Mich Sunday based upon them being well better...That didn't work so down 4 units last week it's make my money back time.Comment -
Username:
RetardStrength, you just cant make this sh#@ up.
BOLComment -
Lets cash this Fukkin play!
i need to get off this slump I'm in. Starts tonight!Comment -
On it.
Let's get it, boys!
nice write up, RS!Comment -
Sitting in Vegas; lost my a$$ at the tables last nite and at the sportsbook. Go Heat!! Obviously I am doing something wrong. I think I shall tail this play tonite. Need to get some serious coinage back. Any words of advice besides jumping off the roof would be great.Comment -
I am good to go with the rest of the week in terms of units lol. Anyway. I do like St. Johns tonight? +7. Any thoughts on that pick?Comment -
There are other games with more value... St John's so damn inconsistent and Notre Dame sitting atop the Big East with the big dogs... Maybe that makes them vulnerable...??? I agreed somewhere in another thread 7 points was just too many. If I had to play this game, I'd take Notre D ML...
Good luck!Comment -
Great thread. I enjoyed reading your insights. I love Central Michigan tonight....I had them favourited by 5 prior to the lines coming out. We shall see.Comment -
Thanks man! Good luck tonite!! Money Plays.Comment -
I love it when you post dd's makes me think of titties:dComment
