LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 03-29-12, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by streakyrocket22

Any leans on the LAL/OKC Total??

No....thats a coinflip...i think the number is accurate in that 200 range....gl

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 04:52 PM

I dont know if the lakers want to develop a trackmeet where they have so much size they might turn it into a halfcourt game.
I hope you make a play in this game should be a great to watch

**Pivotpoint** · 03-29-12, 05:26 PM

Anyone have status info on Mavs regarding Haywood and West? Mavs just moved to +9. Hard to resist.

**CheeseHead** · 03-29-12, 05:28 PM

Dan Crawford: 37 games, 62% home team win%, 194 points per game
John Goble: 41 games, 49% home team win%, 193.2 points per game
Leroy Richardson: 37 games, 40% home team win%, 189.5 points per game

Leroy Richardson is quite possibly the worst ref to home teams this year...only Ben Taylor has a worse home team win% but he's only reffed 9 games this season. John Goble is near the bottom of the list as well. Dan Crawford is near the middle of the pack on this one, there are plenty of other refs with higher than a 62% home team win%. I think if you're looking just at ref assignments on the Lakers/Thunder game, you got to lean towards the Thunder.

Before I see any criticizing, I want to point out that again this is only looking at ref assignments...but I figured I would mention it.

Good site for ref stats if you don't already have it:

NBA Referee Stats

http://www.nbastuffer.com/referee_stats

NBAstuffer's referee stats have been the first resource ever to publish NBA referee stats such as home team W%, called foul% with the chief of crew and crew

**Love The Action** · 03-29-12, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/29/2012

Play #1

Mavericks/Heat under (189) 3x (Locked)

Two top 10 defenses according to the advanced stats, the strength of which will be facing off against the offensive strength of each team. In the first game of the season, these teams went well over a total set at 190. This game is set lower and I have to agree with the books setting a low total based on the drop in pace that Miami has suffered. I have this game set at 186.5 giving us more than a fg of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

Added 2x to Play #1 for a total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

I'm going to step out tonight for my second 3x play of the season. I am surprised to see this total remain at 189 throughout the day and I'm going to take advantage and play this aggresively. West is back tonight which will help the mavs perimeter defense and neither team is playing great offensive basketball at the moment. Both teams are playing slower of late, especially the heat and I don't see much chance that this one turns into a trackmeet like the first game. Instead, this has been a long anticipated grudge match that will have the feel of a playoff game. That sort of intensity lends itself to the under when you have two elite defensive teams like the mavs and heat. I expect both teams to slow it down and concentrate on the half court game. Even though the line has not moved much, I do expect movement soon with a closer around 188. The ref assignments do not concern me so I'm taking advantage of the lack of line movement and adding 2x for a total of 3x on the under. Good luck.

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 06:18 PM

well.....get me some xanax now.

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 06:19 PM

locked up thanks LTA lets hit it!!!!

**Dexter** · 03-29-12, 06:19 PM

good luck on the big one LTA

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-29-12, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Added 2x to Play #1 for a total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

I'm going to step out tonight for my second 3x play of the season. I am surprised to see this total remain at 189 throughout the day and I'm going to take advantage and play this aggresively. West is back tonight which will help the mavs perimeter defense and neither team is playing great offensive basketball at the moment. Both teams are playing slower of late, especially the heat and I don't see much chance that this one turns into a trackmeet like the first game. Instead, this has been a long anticipated grudge match that will have the feel of a playoff game. That sort of intensity lends itself to the under when you have two elite defensive teams like the mavs and heat. I expect both teams to slow it down and concentrate on the half court game. Even though the line has not moved much, I do expect movement soon with a closer around 188. The ref assignments do not concern me so I'm taking advantage of the lack of line movement and adding 2x for a total of 3x on the under. Good luck.

Win or lose LTA, let me say this now before the game starts (avoid the redboarding). This is a very good analysis. I had forgotten the Championship series last year. Miami has not. Miami wins the games they choose to with their defense...not over-scoring them in a track meet. Dallas, essentially, is the same type of team. I expect some series shut down D tonight. If the Heat can just slow down Dirk we could be riding high.

Now, let's get em.

**TC Woods** · 03-29-12, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Added 2x to Play #1 for a total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 06:55 PM

LTA does it all worry you it is nationally televised game? Seems they always try and extend these games towards the end............hopefully we dont get screwed tonight. If we lose, let it be 110-110..........That Bulls/Knicks game comes to mind

**I am Happy** · 03-29-12, 06:59 PM

Best of luck LTA... I'll do $100 on the play here... Here's to a successful pregame outlook

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 07:19 PM

Wow horrible half court defense by these 2. Uncharacteristic breakdowns.

**XGamer** · 03-29-12, 07:20 PM

Live at 195.5 should I go for it?

**I am Happy** · 03-29-12, 07:26 PM

pretty unreal 3-fest should cease when these teams decide to start to play

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-29-12, 07:30 PM

Can we be absolutely sure that these players are the Dallas and Miami teams?

**chief42** · 03-29-12, 07:36 PM

this definitely does not remind me of last years playoff basketball between these two.

**PR9** · 03-29-12, 07:40 PM

I see the Heat game going over 200 . Looks like no team wants to play any D just showcasing their offenses pumping some offensive stats on national tv

**XGamer** · 03-29-12, 07:41 PM

Wow live total is 198.5 now

**alamo** · 03-29-12, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by PR9

I see the Heat game going over 200

I love these guys who call games halfway thru a 2qtr. Nothing like having 20/20 vision after the event.

**CheeseHead** · 03-29-12, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by alamo

I love these guys who call games halfway thru a 2qtr. Nothing like having 20/20 vision after the event.

PR9 is notorious for this

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 07:45 PM

Whatever. **** this i quit

**bonestock** · 03-29-12, 07:48 PM

unreal. what happen to D.

**CheeseHead** · 03-29-12, 07:49 PM

Can we get some f'n defense??? This is so hard to watch.......making this play look absolutely ridiculous

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 07:50 PM

Whats the point in trying.
What do these coaches even tell there guys during these timeouts?To playno
Defense and let them score at will?

**alamo** · 03-29-12, 07:52 PM

Relax guys. Game will slow down.

**CheeseHead** · 03-29-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Relax guys. Game will slow down.

They are shooting a ridiculously high percentage but who says they can't keep it up? The pace they are playing at is really fast...hardly taking any time off the shot clock each possession. That's what is worrying me the most.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-29-12, 07:55 PM

I will say this only once because I know it is not a popular sentiment right now. This is a difficult game to watch...junk shots from every angle all going in. Bosh and Dirk tipping and banking their way to a big half.

But these two teams have a shut down gear that can be awesome if they choose to put it on.

That is what we are going to need to win this game.

Normally I would look hard at the second half under...but with 3 units already out there in cyberspace...maybe it is best to root for shutdown city or lick my wounds and go home.

**CheeseHead** · 03-29-12, 08:00 PM

I don't typically panic until the game is over...but let's be honest. Not a chance the 2nd half goes under 76 points with the pace these teams are playing at. Rack up a 3 unit loss here.

**PolishSensation** · 03-29-12, 08:01 PM

76 point 2nd half is possible, but unlikely.

**my6sen** · 03-29-12, 08:04 PM

ahhahaahhahah please give up the under

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-29-12, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

I don't typically panic until the game is over...but let's be honest. Not a chance the 2nd half goes under 76 points with the pace these teams are playing at. Rack up a 3 unit loss here.

Yea, the late half scoring was stupefying.

Looks like we're going to need super shutdown mode!

**mikea33** · 03-29-12, 08:04 PM

Yes. Same here.

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

I will say this only once because I know it is not a popular sentiment right now. This is a difficult game to watch...junk shots from every angle all going in. Bosh and Dirk tipping and banking their way to a big half.

But these two teams have a shut down gear that can be awesome if they choose to put it on.

That is what we are going to need to win this game.

Normally I would look hard at the second half under...but with 3 units already out there in cyberspace...maybe it is best to root for shutdown city or lick my wounds and go home.

**chief42** · 03-29-12, 08:06 PM

anybody thinking about touching this 2nd half under 93.5?

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-29-12, 08:08 PM

Damn...under 93.5 in the second half. That means they are predicting a final total of 206.5....damn tempting to go under.