LTA's NBA Plays

[DAGsky]

take this thx

[Speedy88]

Got to love it when the Hawks and Bulls get together. UNDDERRRFEST

[G-manFan]

Can I get some thoughs on which online books are reliable for US players. My local is gonna be out of commission for a few weeks and his fillin isn't the most reliable person. So I need an alternative before the weekend comes.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/28/2012

Play #1

Bulls/Hawks under (183) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for a writeup right now, but we will have a motivated Bulls defense who was admonished by Thibs for their recent poor play. Both teams are top 10 in multiple advanced statistical categories including DEFF, OTS%, EFG%, O3P%, etc. Both teams are also in the bottom 5 of PACE and I expect a motivated Atlanta team playing at home and coming off a defeat in Milwaukee. In addition, Atlatna is primarily a jump shooting team and their shooting legs will be affected considering this is their 6th game in 7 nights. Whenever these teams meet, the under is always a solid option and in this case we have nice value. I have this game set at 180 giving us three full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Down to 181.5 at Pinny....I hope you guys were able to get on this last night if you also like this play. If not, I do expect this one to go back up to 182 for a bit, but it will drop back down from there to a closer around 181 or less. If you were not able to get 183 last night with me, then I would try to wait to see if it ever gets back to 182. I think it's important to at least get 182 because that is the 12th most common final score in the NBA. For those betting with Legends or with an agent for Legends like I do, they just opened at 182. That is still a good playable number for this one. Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks LTA, I got it at 182.5. Australian books are yet to move off this number if anyone in Oz is still awake!

[taxe91]

Thanks LTA, I got it at 182.5. Australian books are yet to move off this number if anyone in Oz is still awake!

nice.. my book is at 181.5 (in australia but using bet365)

[jas19illini]

Rose and Hamilton out tonight?

[Love The Action]

Rose and Hamilton out tonight?

Not officially, but neither will play again according to kc johnson....

[Love The Action]

After last Sunday's loss on the suns/cavs over, we are now 9-3 on plays of 2x or more.

As we get closer to the playoffs and games start to become more important and when we get to the playoffs themselves, you can expect me to be more aggressive in my staking to take advantage of the value provided in the market because of books' overadjustment due to public perception. I am looking forward to these next three months. GL

[imaricer86]

Atl 6 game 7 night why not put a wager on chi?

[Love The Action]

Atl 6 game 7 night why not put a wager on chi?

Because there is no value.... the books are taxing the bulls even without rose. The fatigue angleis already factored into the line. I feel the under was the much better play and it seems the market agrees. Good luck.

[BigBoi]

LTA, you waiting a little while before you start baseball picks? Oak/Sea was almost too easy this morning.

[Love The Action]

Atl 6 game 7 night why not put a wager on chi?

Because there is no value.... the books are taxing the bulls even without rose. The fatigue angleis already factored into the line. I feel the under was the much better play and it seems the market agrees. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, you waiting a little while before you start baseball picks? Oak/Sea was almost too easy this morning.

I do not like playing games that are abnormal such as games played overseas because of addiditional variables and distractions. Plus, i have to finish my preparationsfor mb this weekend. I suspect I will be ready for the normal openers on april 4th. GL

[jas19illini]

Can someone post the link to LTAs baseball thread so I can bookmark it? Difficult to search and navigate while on my phone.

[Hunner24]

Can someone post the link to LTAs baseball thread so I can bookmark it? Difficult to search and navigate while on my phone.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1166721-ltas-mlb-plays-p148.html

[Cinarocket]

Hey LTA i got a betting theory question.

I obviously understand the concept of EV blabla (i'm a poker player) so I understand what you do when you calculate a total and then compare it to the actual line.
A lot of the times you say like "Ok i'm betting the O200 i got this game at 202 which gives us 2 point value". So yes if you got the total set over what the actual line is it should be a +EV play. The only problem that i may see is the rake. Bookies make money against us through the rake, i'm not used to the american system so i will talk in decimals but say I bet the O200 based on the fact we got two points of value but say i'm paying a 10% rake (i bet O200 at 1.900), if you take into account the rake do these 2 points value still give us an edge over the bookies?

So my question is: how do you determine if the value of points u got is good enough to beat the rake and what kind of margin do you think we have to have regarding points value if we wanna compensate the counter-effect of rake?

Cheers

[aread1]

LTA, what do you think about that Knicks game? I saw Amare, his backup Jeffries and Jeremy Lin are not playing. Knicks started Carmelo at PF last game and he reinjured his groin in that game. JR Smith also has an illness. Magic opened up -1 and went to -2 pretty fast.

[jas19illini]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...lays-p148.html

Thanks.

[BigBoi]

Good deal man. I cashed on a parlay of Seattle/ Under this morning but I understand the unknown variables and everything. GL.

[dmitean]

Nice hit last night LTA!
Wanted to take it as well, but got caught up in work

I agree with the play on the Under in ATL, though not playing it myself. I do wonder how Bulls going to respond to getting beat by Denver and especially getting 108 points on their head from Denver. I guess they will respond on the defensive end. As for bet on the Bulls, why on earth, anyone will want to bet on Hawks fatigue, when the team is 11 - 3 ATS this season in B2B spot???

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA i got a betting theory question.

I obviously understand the concept of EV blabla (i'm a poker player) so I understand what you do when you calculate a total and then compare it to the actual line.
A lot of the times you say like "Ok i'm betting the O200 i got this game at 202 which gives us 2 point value". So yes if you got the total set over what the actual line is it should be a +EV play. The only problem that i may see is the rake. Bookies make money against us through the rake, i'm not used to the american system so i will talk in decimals but say I bet the O200 based on the fact we got two points of value but say i'm paying a 10% rake (i bet O200 at 1.900), if you take into account the rake do these 2 points value still give us an edge over the bookies?

So my question is: how do you determine if the value of points u got is good enough to beat the rake and what kind of margin do you think we have to have regarding points value if we wanna compensate the counter-effect of rake?

Cheers

The 10 cent vig is assumed in all calculations.....however, your question is answered entirely based on an expected value formula with the factors being (1) your projected fair line/price, (2) the price you wager and (3) the closing price. You can also play around with sbr's half point calculator to help answer your question. GL.

[dlunc3]

Hi LTA.. I know that you had mentioned possibly not playing sides anymore this season, but I was curious to see your take on the Orl/NY game tonight. Lin and Amare are out, and Mello is hobbled. Orl -2 does seem like the square play, but at the same time seems like a decent bet to me in this spot for each team. Do you have any thoughts on this one?

[mikea33]

I do not like playing games that are abnormal such as games played overseas because of addiditional variables and distractions. Plus, i have to finish my preparationsfor mb this weekend. I suspect I will be ready for the normal openers on april 4th. GL

Thats A good idea LTa. Forcing early season plays wiyhout a grasp on teams can really put somone in a hole way too early.
Since its tougher to play baseball on purely situation reasons because its not really an effort type of sport (hockey NBA even nfl) so its seems a lot more statistical IMO along with judgement on other variables. So this brings me to the question.does baseball hve the most variance night in and night out say if its a pitcher who normally throws cupcakes is throwing some dirty junk, etc

[bmur714]

LTA or anyone, what do you guys think about PHO +7 tonight? (LTA, I know you said you might lay off of playing sides for a while but...) This matchup looks like we might be getting some value with PHO. In the last two meetings PHO won by 3 at home and by 4 in LA 2 weeks ago. Clips are about even ATS at home and in the last 5 games have allowed more than 50% shooting. PHO is the better rebounding team and since the break PHO has been a machine. 4-1 ATS in the last 5 road games.
Any thoughts?

[Love The Action]

I never said im not playing sides, I just said I am laying off side plays which are based primarily on traditional fatigue angles since they have not been cashing over the last month. I will still make side plays that are value plays as identified by my mode and just track the situational fatigue leans I traditionally play.

I am passing all the way around on the knicks game as the knick injury situation provides for too many variables to calculate an accurate fair number. Good luck on whatever you decide.

[meader99]

Like the Nets +6. Fade away fader nation.......

[dynasty27]

anyone else liking the MIN/CHA over 200.5? Cha struggles on O but, MIN has been handing out points on D lately. Also, they both like to, and are going to be playing at a fast pace tonight. Cha has to show some heart down the stretch and keep these games close, or at least, bench players need to fight for their jobs. I'm feeling this play wondering what you all think.

[SlickRick1382]

Nevermind....

[fitguy67]

Hey LTA i got a betting theory question.

I obviously understand the concept of EV blabla (i'm a poker player) so I understand what you do when you calculate a total and then compare it to the actual line.
A lot of the times you say like "Ok i'm betting the O200 i got this game at 202 which gives us 2 point value". So yes if you got the total set over what the actual line is it should be a +EV play. The only problem that i may see is the rake. Bookies make money against us through the rake, i'm not used to the american system so i will talk in decimals but say I bet the O200 based on the fact we got two points of value but say i'm paying a 10% rake (i bet O200 at 1.900), if you take into account the rake do these 2 points value still give us an edge over the bookies?

So my question is: how do you determine if the value of points u got is good enough to beat the rake and what kind of margin do you think we have to have regarding points value if we wanna compensate the counter-effect of rake?

Cheers

ChinaRocket,

I think this might be right up your alley, especially with your being comfortable with decimal-format odds.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nominated-posts/1603755-ltas-nba-plays-nominated-post.html

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/28/2012

Play #1

Bulls/Hawks under (183) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for a writeup right now, but we will have a motivated Bulls defense who was admonished by Thibs for their recent poor play. Both teams are top 10 in multiple advanced statistical categories including DEFF, OTS%, EFG%, O3P%, etc. Both teams are also in the bottom 5 of PACE and I expect a motivated Atlanta team playing at home and coming off a defeat in Milwaukee. In addition, Atlatna is primarily a jump shooting team and their shooting legs will be affected considering this is their 6th game in 7 nights. Whenever these teams meet, the under is always a solid option and in this case we have nice value. I have this game set at 180 giving us three full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Suns/Clippers over (194) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for a writeup but there is too much value to pass up in this one despite a slow pace generally played by the clippers and some possible fatigue of the suns. I have this game set at 199 giving us five points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[pokerwhiz90]

totally agree on play 1 and 2 tonight, lets do this

[dmitean]

Play #2

Suns/Clippers over (194) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for a writeup but there is too much value to pass up in this one despite a slow pace generally played by the clippers and some possible fatigue of the suns. I have this game set at 199 giving us five points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

We H2H here. Suns are an Under machine on the road, Clippers are an Under machine at home. Teams met twice this season and failed to score even 180 points. All can happen, but I believe that whatever the final score, Under is the right play here and only bad luck can prevent it from winning.

[Love The Action]

We H2H here. Suns are an Under machine on the road, Clippers are an Under machine at home. Teams met twice this season and failed to score even 180 points. All can happen, but I believe that whatever the final score, Under is the right play here and only bad luck can prevent it from winning.

Fair enough as to those team trends you like to follow......but it is a ridiculous statement to say the only way you lose is bad luck. If you get beat by the closer and this one ends over 198 or so, then you made a bad play and it has nothing to do with luck. Its very possible to make a +ev play that loses, but one of the main factors is beating the closer. If you bet under 196 and this closes above that, then it was not a +ev play on the under regardless of past results. Lets see where the closer ends up before we start saying the only way the under loses is luck. GL

[Vasco]

We H2H here. Suns are an Under machine on the road, Clippers are an Under machine at home. Teams met twice this season and failed to score even 180 points. All can happen, but I believe that whatever the final score, Under is the right play here and only bad luck can prevent it from winning.

The first matchup in Phoenix ended 81-78, but both teams shot well under 40% for the game. The last time they met, the Suns played without Nash and Hill and the game ended 91-87. Again both teams shot around 40-45%. Hopefully these teams can shoot a little better and give us a good shot at cashing the over.