LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[alamo]

MLB 6/17/11 Philly/Sea under (6.5) 1x (Locked) Adding 1x for total of 2x to Mariners ML (Locked)

Yankees/Cubs over (9.5)(+ 105) 1x (LOSS)
Brewers/Red Sox under (9) (+100) 1x (LOSS)
NY/Chi 1h over (72) 1x (LOSS)
Brewers (+ 122) 2x (LOSS)
Orioles/National over (8.5)(+105) 1x (WIN)
Atl/Minny under (167) 5x (LOSS)
NY (+ 5.5) 2x (LOSS)
Marlins/Devil Rays over (9.5)(+100) 1x (LOSS)

Wont be playing. Too many plays IMO. Im going to cut my losses and take a break

[pickemtowinem]

I took an ass whooping tonight too.

2 wins on 12 plays.

get em tomorrow.

[flush99]

It happens, don't worry.

[funnyman]

Better day today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/17/11

Philly/Sea under (6.5) 1x (Locked)
Adding 1x for total of 2x to Mariners ML (Locked)

Yankees/Cubs over (9.5)(+ 105) 1x (LOSS)
Brewers/Red Sox under (9) (+100) 1x (LOSS)
NY/Chi 1h over (72) 1x (LOSS)
Brewers (+ 122) 2x (LOSS)
Orioles/National over (8.5)(+105) 1x (WIN)
Atl/Minny under (167) 5x (LOSS)
NY (+ 5.5) 2x (LOSS)
Marlins/Devil Rays over (9.5)(+100) 1x (LOSS)

Wont be playing. Too many plays IMO. Im going to cut my losses and take a break

I do not dispute I had a tough night -- it happens, no one can win every day. I profited over 12x between Monday-Wednesday, but have lost a little over 15x between Thursday and Friday. I remain very profitable in this thread overall if you include my NBA picks and remain profitable by over 13x in MLB on the season if you include my MLB plays from my first round NBA playoff threads. I am usually more consistent than this weeks' results so far, but things don't always go as planned in this world of sports investing and when you lose your bigger plays, you are going to be in the red.

However, I would dispute the "too many plays" thing. There were 15 games in MLB which yield at least 45 possible plays between sides, runlines and totals (that does not even include possible alternate line plays, 5 inning line plays or 1st inning line plays). In the WNBA you had four games which yield at least 8 possible plays between full game sides and totals or more than 16 possible plays if you want to count possible 1h, 2h and quarter line plays. So, out of that possible 60 plays or more, I had around 12. To me, 12 plays out of a possible 60 + plays on the board is not "too many."

I cap every single game on the board day in and day out and I play every game where I think I have the edge. I missed playing the Tigers over because I was cutting the grass and it hit which would have helped our bottom line. You missed playing the Seattle ML and the Seattle under and both hit for at 3x in profit (or 2x if you are flatbetting) which would have mitigated some of the losses. The point being, if you leave plays off the board just because you already have certain wagers locked in, then you are leaving profit out of your account and are probably wagering too much on each game. After all, the golden rule for sports investing is only to wager what you can afford to lose. That also shows why people say that if you follow someone, you should follow all their plays or don't follow. Because if you leave winning plays off your ticket, you are only cheating yourself and it's not fair to blame the capper.

Oh this frustrating world of sports investing -- somedays we wake up and hate seeing our account (i.e. today) and other days we love it (Tuesday). It drives us mad and keeps us sane all at the same time. It provides us with a release and endorphin rush, but can also leave us at the bottom. It is our friend that will continually hurt us, but we always come back for more because in the end we win more than we lose and that makes it worthwhile. There are two pillars of my commitment to sports investing: (1) properly managing the bankroll and (2) staying mentally balanced by always remaining positive but never getting too high or too low.

At the end of the day, no one hates to lose more than I. I am playing all these plays with my own money, not like some of these fake airbettors out there or touts who play with other people's money. Consequently, I feel any and all losses on a deep and personal level. However, I don't get negative because I know I will be in the black at the end of WNBA and MLB season. I know this because I have more than doubled my BR since I began doing this full-time in October 2010 between NBA regular season, NBA playoffs, NCAAF and NFL. I profited in each one of those sports by the end of the season, except NFL where I took about a 4x loss on the season because I lost my Super Bowl bets on the Steelers and Under (out of all those sports, I think NFL is the most unpredictable and thus hardest to cap because of the parity and the fact that they only play once per week but that's another discussion for another time). Therefore, I have no doubts that I will end up profitable with both WNBA and MLB (in fact I still remain up over 13x on the MLB season when you count the MLB plays documented in my first round NBA threads).

Remember, I am capping for myself here and locking in wager amounts that are based on my capping techiniques relative to my BR -- currently I am playing with "house money." I can't and don't weight plays based on what I think others can afford so you may need to adjust your stakes according to your own situation. My BR is currrently pretty big and I aim to keep it that way by playing aggressive. For me, that means to play every game where I have the edge and to play certain games really big where I feel have such an edge to warrant that play. I am not asking anyone to tail and I don't post plays as if anyone is tailing. These are my plays that I make to maximize my BR and I post them right after I lock them in. If you think they are good plays, then it's up to you to pull the trigger.

I've never tailed a capper, so I'm not really sure the best way to go about it. However, if you don't like making multiple wagers per day, then I am definitely not the right capper to tail. I would rather play every play where I think I have the edge and have a lower winning percentage with more profit than only playing my biggest plays where I would win at a higher rate but would have less profit. If I limited my plays to ones in my 3x or more range, I think I would hit between 57% - 61% long term. However, limiting the amount of plays actually serves to limit how quickly you can churn over your bankroll and the amount of profit you leave on the table makes it the wrong decision. Therefore, I would rather win 50% - 56% (remember in MLB we can hit around 50% and remain profitable because we play big dogs, small faves and low-juice totals) but turn over my bankroll quickly and realize maximum profit.

Anyway, I just wanted to explain a couple of things about our capping style and how we operate this thread. It was definitely a bad day, but that only means a good day is right around the corner. Time to get back to the games. Good luck on all your plays this weekend.

[Love The Action]

Be careful with the WNBA league scoring and team scoring averages on Covers as they are not accurate when compared to WNBA.com. I found that with the NBA, Covers rounded team/league scoring average numbers to the nearest tenth point which really affected my totals calculations. I was better off doing all the work to compile my own calculations off NBA.com because it was worth having more accurate final numbers when making my plays. It looks as though this is proving true in WNBA as well. Thankfully, we only have 12 teams to account for in the WNBA.

[GoggsViggs]

Bro, I can barely cap 5 games well while bottle feeding and changing diapers. Amazed at ur skills. Bol going forward. Sports investing is a daily grind, and is a hard way to make easy money.

[Love The Action]

Bro, I can barely cap 5 games well while bottle feeding and changing diapers. Amazed at ur skills. Bol going forward. Sports investing is a daily grind, and is a hard way to make easy money.

Thanks dude...much appreciated and good luck to you. I owe a lot to my wife who is supporting of sports investing as a second job and makes certain sacrifices to allow me the time required to do it successfully. Believe me though, there is no greater critic than her and if we're not winning, then things can get dicey. That is all the incentive I need to get back into the black for this week.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Orioles/Nationals under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Taking unders at 8 are scary but Zimmerman has pitched to three straight unders in dominating fashion and Matusz has pitched really well in two of his first three starts. Matusz will be a good pitcher and I think he shows up in this early game. There are strong trends that support the under with these two pitchers on the mound and Washington really struggles against lefties hitting under .212 both on the season and in their last 10 games. The ump has very little experience so his 4-1 results in favor of the over cannot be trusted. I'm rolling with the under to get us back on track to start the day. Good luck.

[jacer333]

BOL LTA, hope you get back on track today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Orioles/Nationals under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Taking unders at 8 are scary but Zimmerman has pitched to three straight unders in dominating fashion and Matusz has pitched really well in two of his first three starts. Matusz will be a good pitcher and I think he shows up in this early game. There are strong trends that support the under with these two pitchers on the mound and Washington really struggles against lefties hitting under .212 both on the season and in their last 10 games. The ump has very little experience so his 4-1 results in favor of the over cannot be trusted. I'm rolling with the under to get us back on track to start the day. Good luck.

Nice to get back on top with an easy win. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I stopped short because of yesterday's rough start to the day. Would have been nice, but we'll take the 1x in profit to start off the day. That makes three plays in a row if you count last night's late Seattle and Seattle under winners. Perhaps we can make a little run today. Although, I'm not really liking anything too much today. My projected line for WNBA is right at 158, so there's not much room there. Let's see what the line movements bring us...

[Love The Action]

Ugh...I really want to lock in the Rangers/Braves under right now but my local's website is down for maintenance and my other local has a bad line at 7.5....what to do, what to do...

[KuLaPhU]

just touch down Reno NV... planning to put some $$ on MLB.. what are the locks/picks for today?

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/18/11

Washington/Tulsa over (158.5) 1x (Locked)
Washington/Tulsa 1h over (77.5) 1x (Locked)

Two crap teams and I think we see Washington push the pace and Tulsa follow. Even though Tulsa is without Cambage, I think both teams can hit about 79-82 points after the first half and about 161 points for the game. Early money on Pinny had this one going over as the line opened at 158.5 and quickly jumped up to 161.5 for awhile. I have this one capped at low range of 158 and a high range of 161. Therefore, I'm going to take a shot here that we are right on the money. With the over trending hard for Washington, I think we see this one hit. BOL...

[Dexter]

hiding out in the nba section....i like your low key style...

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Pirates/Indians under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

Maholm is always a huge under threat having thrown 11 out of 13 games under the posted total this year. With the Indians hitting under .200 against lefties in their last ten games, I think Maholm goes deep into the game. On the other side, Carrasco has remained the Indians most consistent pitcher and I think we see a quality start out of him tonight. Hopefully, the bullpens keep it low. BOL...

[Love The Action]

I really want to get the Angels/Mets under at 7...it's just not creeping back up. Damn

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Angels/Mets under (6.5) (+105) 1.5x (Locked)

I have to roll with the under with both teams and ump trending under and Haren on the mound. I think Pelfrey can give us a quality start and the line movement supports the under as well. BOL...

[Love The Action]

I like the Red Sox tonight but not paying -180 and the RL -1.5 is a 90% favorite so just going to sit that one out.

I will be playing some big juice in the late games with leans on the Rockies, A's and Mariners right now.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Rockies ML (-150) 0.50x (Locked)

Jiminez has not pitched well at home but Phil Coke is one of my favorite fades. BOL..

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Mariners ML (-130) 1x (Locked)
Phils/Mariners under (6.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)
Oakland ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

Let's get back what those ladies stole from us...BOL..

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/18/11

Houston ML (+110) 1x (Locked)

Wandy v. the rook and I'll roll with this late line movement play on the Stros. BOL...

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/19/11

Pirates/Indians under (8) 1x (Locked)
Astros/Dodgers under (7) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big Karstens fan and I don't think his knee injury factors in at all. Masterson hasn't pitched great, but his ERA is still respectable and despite losing the majority of his recent starts, he keeps the game low-scoring as evidenced by his games hitting the under 2 out of the last three with Masterson on the mound. In the other game, another young pitcher I really like is Norris of the Astros. When you have him going against a solid Kuroda and an ump that trends under, I will roll with the under every time. BOL...

[funnyman]

You have a local with a web site? Better than a bookie in a bar.Do you call him or wager online?

[Love The Action]

Updated records to come later tonight as I'm running short on time this morning but we had a nice profit of 1x yesterday between wnba and mlb. We had what turned out to be a bad call in wnba on the over but had a nice day in mlb as we went 6 - 2 = + 3.3x.

Lets keep our mlb momentum going and have a big bounce back day in wnba. BOL...

[Love The Action]

You have a local with a web site? Better than a bookie in a bar.Do you call him or wager online?

I actually have two locals and they both have websites that offer anything that greek, bookmaker or 5d offers (including table games, horses, golf, mma, etc). Both websites also have mobile apps which make wagering from the phone incredibly easy. Both are huge books that handle action from all over the country and not just my state. They pay on time and come to me to drop off or pick up. They don't mess around so you have to be able to pay what you owe but that's how it should be. It makes sports investing a viable second job as long as I win because I know I will get paid. I would not be doing this if I had to play offshore because the risks of not getting paid are huge. My locals are very professional and I greatly appreciate that. How is your local?

[flush99]

thanks for the picks. GL

[Love The Action]

Damn WNBA line movement is killing me on the early Chicago/Connecticut game. I had a big play lined up before the line just started dropping the total...kills me that I can't get an early line/total in this sport.

[Love The Action]

Damn WNBA line movement is killing me on the early Chicago/Connecticut game. I had a big play lined up before the line just started dropping the total...kills me that I can't get an early line/total in this sport.

Someone went for a huge middling opportunity because they bet the line all the way up to 157 early afternoon yesterday and then pounded it back down to 152 by this morning. Unreal.

[Krazymojo]

wow

[Love The Action]

My bet on the under for the Astros/Dodgers game only stands if Bud Norris is starting. As an FYI, both Covers and SBR is listing Rodriguez as the starter for Houston today. However, Wandy pitched last night and I don't think Aneury is set for today. I believe Norris will be the starter but definitely lay off this one if that is not the case.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/19/11

Pirates/Indians under (8) 1x (Locked)
Astros/Dodgers under (7) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big Karstens fan and I don't think his knee injury factors in at all. Masterson hasn't pitched great, but his ERA is still respectable and despite losing the majority of his recent starts, he keeps the game low-scoring as evidenced by his games hitting the under 2 out of the last three with Masterson on the mound. In the other game, another young pitcher I really like is Norris of the Astros. When you have him going against a solid Kuroda and an ump that trends under, I will roll with the under every time. BOL...

Reds ML (-130) 1x (Locked)

Reds desperately need a win today to avoid the series sweep. Arroyo has pitched better of late and I think he shows up ready to go today. It's time for the Reds' bats to wake up and Villanueva will come back down to earth from his early success after becoming a starter. I'm rolling with the Reds. BOL...

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/19/11

Chicago/Connecticut under (153) 1x (Locked)

I have this one capped at 150 and wanted to go big (around 5x) when the line was at 155 earlier this morning. However, neither of my locals opened their WNBA lines on this game until now so I was not able to get a better number. It's about to go down to 152 or 152.5, as all the money coming in has been under money since the line topped out at 157 mid-morning yesterday. As I stated in an earlier post, there is a big sharp (Billy or whoever) trying for a middle here. He got a great opportunity as it looks like he bet the over 152 at open and then got the under at 157. I'm hoping he doesn't hit it and the game stays at 152 or under. I wish I could have gotten 155 or more, but I will take the 153 for 1x. If the line goes up before game time, that would both interest me and scare me. I think it's going to stay around this 152-153 range though so I don't anticipate much more movement. BOL...

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/19/11

Pirates/Indians under (8) 1x (Locked)
Astros/Dodgers under (7) 1x (Locked)
Reds ML (-130) 1x (Locked)

Adding 1x for total of 2x on Pirates /Indians under (8) (Locked)

I can't help it...I really like this play. I don't care if the public's on it or not. As we've seen, the public has been killing it over the last month so I don't see that part coming into play here. Three unders in a row in this series may be asking a lot, but I think it happens today. BOL...

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/19/11

Pirates/Indians under (8) 2x (Locked)
Astros/Dodgers under (7) 1x (Locked)
Reds ML (-130) 1x (Locked)

Brewers ML (+100) 1x (Locked)

I've not been doing well betting against the Red Sox, but I like Gallardo in this spot against Wakefield. The Brewers are one of the few teams that come close to Boston's offensive firepower and if that knuckle ball isn't knuckling, it could be a long day for Wakefield. BOL...