Hawks +8.5 -110 and ML +365 in Game 1

[JR007]

Don't feed the trolls..they love this

[petermans23]

What´s up with paco and lakerboy?

I´ve have not seen them act this immature before.

And why is one of the greatist cappers of all time named paco trying to make fun of another of the greatist capper of all time named lakerboy and vice versa?

I have a lot of respect for both of these heroes and last year by this time they were great in the nba playoff and killing the bookies with their pics. I know most of you guys here remember.

However lately they have both been a little less successfull with their pics, especially paco who have had quite a bad spring. But all of lakerboys and pacos scandinavian audience hope they will both bounce back strong and that the war between two of the most successfull cappers of all time will cease to exist.

[7secondsOrLess]

best capper of all time wat are u fukin retarded

[7secondsOrLess]

not updating your record?

[blinky88]

Hawks it is

[linedrivr]

paco...did it hurt you when you heard osama was killed?

that is just wrong pal.

[Joweman]

Why are paco and lakerboy putting up such high amounts of units. . . why not just adjust ur bankroll to make 1 unit be worth more

[dynamite140]

[JR007]

"After watching the first six second round NBA playoff games all go Over the total, both of Wednesday's matchups stayed Under. That included Game 2 of Lakers/Mavs and we think Game 3 will follow suit. Los Angeles is 9-0 Under in its last nine double revenge situations. Meanwhile, Dallas is 10-1 ATS playing at home off a win by 10 points or more


"Vegas Line: Chicago by 2.5, total of 178
Chicago was laying -8.5 or -9 at home, so this is a standard line adjustment for a series where home court is expected to be worth three points. You move it six points from one place to the other. Of course, neither of the first two games landed close to the line, which means there's plenty of room for handicapping to have an impact. If Rose's ankle starts improving, or the rest of his team starts to shoot with more confidence, then this line is too low. But, if Atlanta can play as tough here as they did against Orlando, then the Hawks can certainly with their fourth straight playoff home game (all as underdogs).
The total jumped from 177.5 to 181 in the first two games because of all the hot shooting in the series opener. Both teams cooled off, which led to the lowest scoring playoff game this season in the rematch. That's dropped the Game Three total down to 178, which may still be too high as a best expectation for a typical game in this series. None of the last five games in Atlanta/Orlando cleared 178.

Vegas Line: Dallas by 2, total of 186.5
The Lakers were -6 and -7.5 at home (with Game Two inflated for the projected bounce back that never materialized). The move to Dallas -2 suggests home court advantage of four points in the minds of the market (an 8-point reversal from one site to the other). Handicappers have to ask themselves if the Lakers are really two points better on a neutral court than Dallas right now. Because, it's pretty obvious that the Dallas team we just watched in Hollywood should be favored by a lot more than two points at home! We all know the Lakers have it in them to play better. They&'d better find that championship mojo quick.
The total has come down a bit from 188 with last game's increased defensive intensity leading to a 174 finish








.

[JR007]

There's been a pretty good rule of thumb this year in terms of how oddsmakers make line adjustments for injuries.

• If a player is ruled OUT, then an adjustment is made based on his projected impact.
• If a player is going to PLAY HURT, then no adjustment is made.

This seems an odd way to go about it. But, that's definitely been the case thus far in the market. If Kobe Bryant is going to play with a sore ankle, the Lakers are priced like he's at full strength. Derrick Rose is in a walking boot between games. Maybe that's worth a half a point, maybe not. Players on the Celtics get banged up in the first half? Assume they'll be fine and price the second half line accordingly.
Now, part of this lack of adjustment isn't on the oddsmakers. The public is notoriously skeptical of injury reports. They figure a true hero will show up and play great unless there's a broken bone. Also, squares (our term for the general public) are so desperate to bet on their favorite stars that they'll talk themselves into believing all is well. If the public is going to keep betting on banged up stars, there's no reason to adjust the line.
Still, I think if you've been watching the games closely this year you'll note that injuries HAVE been playing a role in the outcomes, even if big name players are on the floor rather than in street clothes. Chicago had trouble covering spreads vs. Indiana, then lost their opener outright to Atlanta in the second round. Carlos Boozer is playing hurt. Rose slowed down his aggression after hurting his ankle midway through the Indiana series. The money may not be affected, but on court results are!
Boston made a few runs in the second half of their second loss to Miami, even with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo all dealing with various physical challenges. Ultimately, they fell apart at the end of the game and failed to stay within the full game number. Boston banged up isn't as good as Boston at full strength.
What should YOU do when handicapping playoff games that are likely to be influenced by injuries?

• Find out what you can from media reports. Players have a code of honor about saying everything is fine. Listen to what others are saying, particularly head coaches or beat writers who were at practices.
• Watch the players closely when they're on the floor. Are they favoring the injury? Have they changed their style of play? Some believe that Kobe Bryant was favoring his bad ankle in Game One vs. Dallas. Even though he scored a lot of points, he was settling for jump shots rather than attacking the rim. If you don't see him start to attack the rim, the ankle is probably an issue that's going to matter in the series.
• Monitor line moves, or the lack of line moves to see if the market is responding to developments. I do know some sharps who have been betting against the banged up teams with success. Maybe that will become more aggressive in a way that moves the line. Maybe you'll still find value.
• Plan ahead. Maybe the injuries aren't over yet! Pick a few key players on all remaining teams and determine what kind of line adjustment you'd make for his absence. I'm not trying to wish an injury on anybody. But, these games are so physical that it wouldn't be a surprise to see another star or two have to deal with an injury in the coming days and weeks. If you know in advance how you'll play it, you can attack the openers before others move the line.

[Love The Action]

There's been a pretty good rule of thumb this year in terms of how oddsmakers make line adjustments for injuries.

• If a player is ruled OUT, then an adjustment is made based on his projected impact.
• If a player is going to PLAY HURT, then no adjustment is made.

This seems an odd way to go about it. But, that's definitely been the case thus far in the market. If Kobe Bryant is going to play with a sore ankle, the Lakers are priced like he's at full strength. Derrick Rose is in a walking boot between games. Maybe that's worth a half a point, maybe not. Players on the Celtics get banged up in the first half? Assume they'll be fine and price the second half line accordingly.
Now, part of this lack of adjustment isn't on the oddsmakers. The public is notoriously skeptical of injury reports. They figure a true hero will show up and play great unless there's a broken bone. Also, squares (our term for the general public) are so desperate to bet on their favorite stars that they'll talk themselves into believing all is well. If the public is going to keep betting on banged up stars, there's no reason to adjust the line.
Still, I think if you've been watching the games closely this year you'll note that injuries HAVE been playing a role in the outcomes, even if big name players are on the floor rather than in street clothes. Chicago had trouble covering spreads vs. Indiana, then lost their opener outright to Atlanta in the second round. Carlos Boozer is playing hurt. Rose slowed down his aggression after hurting his ankle midway through the Indiana series. The money may not be affected, but on court results are!
Boston made a few runs in the second half of their second loss to Miami, even with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo all dealing with various physical challenges. Ultimately, they fell apart at the end of the game and failed to stay within the full game number. Boston banged up isn't as good as Boston at full strength.
What should YOU do when handicapping playoff games that are likely to be influenced by injuries?

• Find out what you can from media reports. Players have a code of honor about saying everything is fine. Listen to what others are saying, particularly head coaches or beat writers who were at practices.
• Watch the players closely when they're on the floor. Are they favoring the injury? Have they changed their style of play? Some believe that Kobe Bryant was favoring his bad ankle in Game One vs. Dallas. Even though he scored a lot of points, he was settling for jump shots rather than attacking the rim. If you don't see him start to attack the rim, the ankle is probably an issue that's going to matter in the series.
• Monitor line moves, or the lack of line moves to see if the market is responding to developments. I do know some sharps who have been betting against the banged up teams with success. Maybe that will become more aggressive in a way that moves the line. Maybe you'll still find value.
• Plan ahead. Maybe the injuries aren't over yet! Pick a few key players on all remaining teams and determine what kind of line adjustment you'd make for his absence. I'm not trying to wish an injury on anybody. But, these games are so physical that it wouldn't be a surprise to see another star or two have to deal with an injury in the coming days and weeks. If you know in advance how you'll play it, you can attack the openers before others move
  the line.
  
  

Good contribution. Thanks.

[kingofmonash]

What´s up with paco and lakerboy?

I´ve have not seen them act this immature before.

And why is one of the greatist cappers of all time named paco trying to make fun of another of the greatist capper of all time named lakerboy and vice versa?

I have a lot of respect for both of these heroes and last year by this time they were great in the nba playoff and killing the bookies with their pics. I know most of you guys here remember.

However lately they have both been a little less successfull with their pics, especially paco who have had quite a bad spring. But all of lakerboys and pacos scandinavian audience hope they will both bounce back strong and that the war between two of the most successfull cappers of all time will cease to exist.

well said mate.... very few posters actually care for peace here,

[JR007]

LB anything for tonight Bro ????

[7secondsOrLess]

when he wins he talks but when he loses he disappears dont worry hell come out of no where with a 50x soon

[dynamite140]

when he wins he talks but when he loses he disappears dont worry hell come out of no where with a 50x soon

[dynamite140]

[KuLaPhU]

Another week another dollar... Let's keep it rollin' don't stop til you get enough.

[lakerboy]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

[BettingWizard]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

[KuLaPhU]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

I'm with you on this pick.. goodluck to us.

[No coincidences]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

Interesting.

[vyomguy]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

Boston win tonight bro.

[lakerboy]

Nah bos is done. Line movement is very telling. Don't worry about the greek.

[ParlayJunkie]

Tough game to call IMO. Betting the Heat tonight does seem to be the sharper play though. GL

[7secondsOrLess]

not updating your record yet I noticed u don't like to show when its negative

[pacerboy]

nah bos is done.

"BOSTON IS DONE" "THIS TEAM IS DONE" "THAT TEAM IS DONE" HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HEAR THIS FROM LAKERBOY?

IF BOSTON IS DONE THEN WHY ARE YOU NOT GOING 50X, or 100X ON HEAT??????

[lakerboy]

Pacoboy calm down. Do you have any points under that handle? U will need them to. Pay off all the posters tonigh after ur dumbass offer. LOL

[t-wizzle]

I'm pretty sure this has happened twice so far with the Heat and Celtics line and both times Boston came out on top.

[KuLaPhU]

miami heat got this and the series is almost over... closeout on game 5

[JR007]

I see it.....LB

[Shark]

hes usually right when he says a team is done, he most recently said the lakers were done and in fact they were.

[Shifty107]

Heat -1.5 -110 (4x)

Is this just because Paco made a boston thread bro? I think ur on the wrong side personally but if ur system tells u Miami, u gotta go for it.

[JR007]

"The Thunder look to even up their series with the Grizzlies Monday night following Saturday afternoon's meltdown in Game 3. Over the past two season, OKC is an incredible 11-0 ATS on the road when playing with revenge for a road loss. This is a team that lost back to back games only five times this season. Remember that they were up big on Saturday and thus are more than capable of winning here on the road."

[pacerboy]

hes usually right when he says a team is done, he most recently said the lakers were done and in fact they were.

BRO HE LOST LIKE 3 GRAND ON LAKERS GAME 2

[7secondsOrLess]

i wonder wat his record is though