tired of losing money -make my own picks instaed

[masticore]

A little note:

litlle stats around my bets....(all % is only ca)

5* o/u-bet 75%
5* spread - just under 50%
3* o/u-bet -just under 50%
3* spread 66%

Conclusion: best to play my 5* o/u and 3* spread

(only a small sample...but maybe good to know)


mikke

[masticore]

Starting good today also

Hopefully will the end of day have better then yesterday

BOL

mikke

[masticore]

3/5

5* TOR +2.5

3* MIN/WAS ov213
3* HOU -6
3* HOU/IND un216.5
3* SAC/UTA ov208.5
3* CHA/POR un184
3* DEN +1.5
3* DEN/LAC un209

6-2 today (+1340)


mikke

[masticore]

3/5

V1: 62-43 (+5325) 59% - "see post 218"

V2:

5* 1-0 (3-2) 60% +400
3* 5-2 (11-7) 61% +990

V2: 6-2 (14-9) 61% +1390

So far is V2 little better then V1



regards
mikke

[shopbar picks]

many thanx

[masticore]

3/6

5* MIA/CHI ov188
5* MEM/DAL ov200.5
5* WAS +6

5* SA/LAL un191 <----almost 5* (I'm 2-2 in almost 5*)
5* ATL -4 <----almost 5* (I'm 2-2 in almost 5*)
5* NO -4.5 <----almost 5* (I'm 2-2 in almost 5*)

3* CHI +5
3* GS +7
3* GS/PHI ov208
3* OKL -5.5
3* BOS -7.5
3* WAS/DET un199.5

[ultrasouth]

Liking the under in the miami game

[vividjohn45]

yeah. chicago +5 looks good. if coach for heat not careful he mite be coach for charlette in the future.

[BigBurk]

Nice night yesterday Mikke! Keep up the good work.

[masticore]

Liking the under in the miami game

Some like red and some like blue....

I do my picks only on statistical parameters...so what I like or not doesnt matter...


Good luck with under...I will go for over (must trust my own system)


mikke

[masticore]

Done with anayles today...(post 251)

Fade or follow at your own risk

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Hopefully no catastrophic day....

48 units in play....if 0-xx then almost all winnings last weeks will be gone...

So be carefull if you follow..only take the winners


BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Not the best start...but at least one win


mikke

[masticore]

It's look like that I must hope for break even day today...the day started not the way I wanted



mikke

[masticore]

I will predict 20 units down today....hopefully lot of faders...or some good turn around

BOL
mikke

[rafa martin]

at least 1 win...so no 0-3 today

my biggest problem with picking my own is that "I'm a kind of action junkie"

But so long I go over with bets that i predict more that "magical"52.38% (and they are also over that)
Will many bets, give more profit.

But if I write down the picks here and also keeping track. Will I maybe be more carefull with my picks.(nobody want to be a idiot in public)

And also reading other "cappers" thread will give me new inputs and also comments about my picks will help me be a better capper

regards
mikke

how many bets do you place for a day?, i bet about 20 now, but before maybe 80 a day,, and i know for sure is well above that 53% magical rate that you state,, which also much be a bit bigger than that, because all we do this for a long time, always buy a point here and there,,, the big problem is not to win over that even 58%,, the big question here is money management control, overbetting and chasing losses,, you will be surprise by many of us picks near 60% win but still lose money,, you are like me,, you lack patient and when a capper fails two days in a row, we change the rules,, be strict and make this a boring routine is the key!!!!

[masticore]

I will predict 20 units down today....hopefully lot of faders...or some good turn around

BOL
mikke

Not so terrible... -9 units if Boston dont cover..not good but no catastrph


mikke

[masticore]

how many bets do you place for a day?, i bet about 20 now, but before maybe 80 a day,, and i know for sure is well above that 53% magical rate that you state,, which also much be a bit bigger than that, because all we do this for a long time, always buy a point here and there,,, the big problem is not to win over that even 58%,, the big question here is money management control, overbetting and chasing losses,, you will be surprise by many of us picks near 60% win but still lose money,, you are like me,, you lack patient and when a capper fails two days in a row, we change the rules,, be strict and make this a boring routine is the key!!!!

I only bet this I write up here...

And strickly to my money managment 1%=1 unit...and if my BR goes up my unit size goes up..and if BR goes down my unit size too

Why I change from V1 --> V2 was because fewer 5* games but more 3* games...

And also feel more confident with this system..(so I had a plan with the changes)

And I'm a kind of action junkie (I really like action)...but never chase losses.overbetting etc etc

I like to compere with what I know of poker -(will not claim I'm good there either)..but as you say "boring routine is the key!!!!"

I'm more afraid that people that "follow" me when I have good days will do that - because I know I'm newbe on capping

regards
mikke

[masticore]

3/6

V1: 62-43 (+5325) 59% - "see post 218"

V2:

5* 3-3 (6-5) 55% +250
3* 2-4 (13-11) 54% +90

V2: 5-7 (19-16) 54% +340

A bad day....let see if I can bounce back tomorrow

regards
mikke

[shopbar picks]

good call on los toros. Bueno

[rafa martin]

so i guess you changed,,, i guess this is why you write your picks here,, so you do not bet other games,, that you liked, second half, quarters,, and so on,,,, i think this is a good tactic!!! hopefully you profit,,,too much action,,,is what we think will make us win, more bets more revenues,,, but is not truth,, at least me,,, if i go on a 10-0 run ,,, i have not enough,,, then if i lose one,, i chase that loss with overbetting,,, some nights i go 12-6 and still goes to zero,,, that's terrible and this is our worst enemy,, if we can control this, and see it as a marathon we will do fine,,,, i can assure you this.

[masticore]

3/7

5* NOR +10.5
5* NOR/CHI ov179.5

5* LAC -1 (almost 5* 4-3)
5* DAL -7 (almost 5* 4-3)
5* HOU -4 (almost 5* 4-3)

3* POR/ORL ov188.5
3* UTA/NYK un211
3* OKL/MEM ov204.5

[masticore]

Analys done today....

Fade or follow at your own risk

Hopefully will I buns back today


BOL
mikke

[masticore]

so i guess you changed,,, i guess this is why you write your picks here,, so you do not bet other games,, that you liked, second half, quarters,, and so on,,,, i think this is a good tactic!!! hopefully you profit,,,too much action,,,is what we think will make us win, more bets more revenues,,, but is not truth,, at least me,,, if i go on a 10-0 run ,,, i have not enough,,, then if i lose one,, i chase that loss with overbetting,,, some nights i go 12-6 and still goes to zero,,, that's terrible and this is our worst enemy,, if we can control this, and see it as a marathon we will do fine,,,, i can assure you this.

Why I post here is one reason..mostly...

To get other people to pick there own picks instead of follow, fade others...

If I can..(and I'm newbe in cappen and can almost nothing about basketball)..pick without losing so much...then everyone can do it

The worst thing is blindly follow, fade others....

What I should do (probly best thing) is pick my own picks without looking at others....after that looking on other trustfull cappers...and only play games we are both on same side....

I have compere my picks with "SJ" and 100% winning when we are on same game since I started picking my own games...(only a small sample - only 4-5 games)


mikke

[BigBurk]

I'm playing Bobcats +1 and Dallas - 6.5 tonight! BOL mikke!

[masticore]

So it up to Houston if it will be a pluss day or not.....


mikke

[shopbar picks]

followed the houston game. only one i could get with my local book. thanx

[masticore]

3/7

V1: 62-43 (+5325) 59% - "see post 218"

V2:

5* 3-2 (9-7) 56% +650
3* 1-2 (14-13) 52% -90

V2: 4-4 (23-20) 53% +560

2.8 units plus today...



regards
mikke

[masticore]

Maybe will put in a extra filter tomorrow....

Must only count on it to see if its better..on V1 was it better...pn a fast over look had I go 11-11 on V2 system with that..

Will check with the wagering if better (I have only a smal sample with V2 so far)

If it's better will I call that system V2.1


mikke

[face]

yes, sj is very smart about bball

[shopbar picks]

agree with post 269. I look to this forum for support of my numbers and who my gut tells me to pick. Follow your gut feeling more than the numbers. Thanx for posting. Posted in the ncaa forum that you are doing good imo

[masticore]

Have a extrafilter...so its V2.1

5* GS -4

3* MIL/WAS ov187.5
3* PHI/IND ov206
3* LAL -5
3* MIA/POR un188.5
3* HOU/PHO ov218

[masticore]

There was the analyses done

Fade or follow at your own risk

BOL
mikke

[shopbar picks]

followed GS thanx again

[masticore]

3/8

V1: 62-43 (+5325) 59% - "see post 218"

V2: 23-20 (+560) 53%

V2.1

5* 1-0 (+500)
3* 3-2 (+240)

V2.1 4-2 (+740)


regards
mikke