The WNBA market is not as efficient as the major sports markets, but there are still enough people with money and opinions involved to play against a line move that is perceived to be wrong. Closing line value is not measured by how much lines move right after a play is released, but rather against the actual closing line itself.
The opinion of a respected handicapper is a valid reason for a line to move.
Case in point, this morning the Lynx @ Storm line was released at 9.5, moved up to 11.5 over a 3 hour span, and then got beaten back down to 9.5 in 20 minutes... Great if you capitalized on the +11.5 (I did), but irrelevant if you missed it. One group's plays cancel out anothers...
Net impact = minimal.
Comment
durito
SBR Posting Legend
07-03-06
13173
#72
Originally posted by suicidekings
Case in point, this morning the Lynx @ Storm line was released at 9.5, moved up to 11.5 over a 3 hour span, and then got beaten back down to 9.5 in 20 minutes... Great if you capitalized on the +11.5 (I did), but irrelevant if you missed it. One group's plays cancel out anothers...
Net impact = minimal.
The limit is $250 today at pinny. Wait and see what it does tomorrow when it's 3k + available everywhere else.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#73
Originally posted by durito
The limit is $250 today at pinny. Wait and see what it does tomorrow when it's 3k + available everywhere else.
The limit is $750 today :
But I get what you're saying.
Comment
julio_cat
SBR MVP
10-05-09
1208
#74
Too early for WNBA IMO. I don't follow preseason, and only can watch games on Internet, so I will wait a couple of weeks to start wagering in that sport.
Comment
julio_cat
SBR MVP
10-05-09
1208
#75
forgot to add I can watch games on Internet "Until the NBA season is over"
Comment
Mazza
SBR High Roller
03-17-10
138
#76
How can I watch this video on the iPhone
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#77
Originally posted by RoagBettor
By the end of this WNBA season everyone will know who the real WNBA experts are
roag - but how can someone confirm what a touts record is? there are many shady touts out there who claim great records when there really is no way to prove that. (was not calling you shady)
are your plays at least released to the public at tip off, first pitch etc so that the public can track your success?
just going onto a touts website and reading a record they claim is meaningless to anyone with half a brain.
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Actionbrett
SBR Wise Guy
03-03-07
601
#78
Closing line value is irrelevant in this conversation due to the fact there is only about a 20 second window to move in on the released number from RAS. My guess is that 90% of his client base cannot get the released line. Just my 2cents.
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Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#79
interesting find from Right Angle's site...
Rating & Grading
All plays will be rated at 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 UNITS and graded with a consensus average line from major offshore sportsbooks (Greek, Bookmaker, Pinnacle) at time of release. All plays will be listed on the Pick Archive page no more than 10 minutes after tip-off for monitoring purposes.
Comment
RoagBettor
SBR Hall of Famer
01-20-09
8355
#80
Originally posted by Dexter
roag - but how can someone confirm what a touts record is? there are many shady touts out there who claim great records when there really is no way to prove that. (was not calling you shady)
are your plays at least released to the public at tip off, first pitch etc so that the public can track your success?
just going onto a touts website and reading a record they claim is meaningless to anyone with half a brain.
Dex, our plays are emailed and sent out on our private Twitter account, hence they are all timestamped. I post them in a thread at our site also when I can, sometimes life gets in the way.
Our record is 100% accurate and can be validated by any of our members.
Thanks.
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RoagBettor
SBR Hall of Famer
01-20-09
8355
#81
Allow me to clarify: I post them as soon as I can after the games start.
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#82
Originally posted by RoagBettor
Allow me to clarify: I post them as soon as I can after the games start.
thats as honest as you can be....good work.
Comment
Emily_Haines
SBR Posting Legend
04-14-09
15847
#83
Originally posted by Actionbrett
My guess is that 90% of his client base cannot get the released line. Just my 2cents.
Not even close
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#84
Originally posted by Actionbrett
Closing line value is irrelevant in this conversation due to the fact there is only about a 20 second window to move in on the released number from RAS. My guess is that 90% of his client base cannot get the released line. Just my 2cents.
The line movement on the true openers (Pinny @ 8am Pacific) can be insane, but after that initial jump, the lines opening at other books typically don't have the same volatility. 20 seconds seems like a very low estimate. Anyone that's serious enough about betting the WNBA to purchase RAS picks is probably going to be serious enough to be at the ticket window (online or otherwise) in a timely fashion to take advantage of them.
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SexyMit
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-06
6139
#85
Originally posted by suicidekings
The line movement on the true openers (Pinny @ 8am Pacific) can be insane, but after that initial jump, the lines opening at other books typically don't have the same volatility. 20 seconds seems like a very low estimate. Anyone that's serious enough about betting the WNBA to purchase RAS picks is probably going to be serious enough to be at the ticket window (online or otherwise) in a timely fashion to take advantage of them.
Or just wait and let him make his move and go the opposite. He can't hit the broad side of a barn yet, so not much running to the window cashing tickets. Just getting worse numbers and still loseing. And paying more for his plays
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#86
Originally posted by SexyMit
Or just wait and let him make his move and go the opposite. He can't hit the broad side of a barn yet, so not much running to the window cashing tickets. Just getting worse numbers and still loseing. And paying more for his plays
I wasn't defending the service, but rather suggesting that the moves are not really an issue if you have an opinion of your own (I'm not a customer of any service and never will be) as being prepared to jump on early lines is just good practice for any bettor. Additionally, RAS isn't the only group with sufficient clout to move lines.
But I have to say, if your service is better then let your winning percentage speak for itself and they can do the same. No need to post the same comment over and over about the price of their service going up, and claiming victory in the first week seems premature. If you want respect, then show some class and demonstrate your professionalism. The above post has neither.
Good luck to both of you this season
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Durrrr
SBR MVP
11-07-09
1314
#87
Good stuff.
Comment
Johnny 55
Restricted User
05-16-09
1079
#88
Trust me, everyone who pays for RAS picks hits them within 10 seconds of release, you are throwing away your money and losing massively valuable line value if you dont.
Comment
darkenergy
SBR MVP
01-08-09
4013
#89
Originally posted by suicidekings
But I have to say, if your service is better then let your winning percentage speak for itself and they can do the same. No need to post the same comment over and over about the price of their service going up, and claiming victory in the first week seems premature. If you want respect, then show some class and demonstrate your professionalism. Good luck to both of you this season
Well said SK.
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RoagBettor
SBR Hall of Famer
01-20-09
8355
#90
Originally posted by Johnny 55
Trust me, everyone who pays for RAS picks hits them within 10 seconds of release, you are throwing away your money and losing massively valuable line value if you dont.
Assuming you're on the correct side in the first place. If you're on the wrong side and get the line late after it moves (but are still on the same side), it could actually work in your favor.
The bottom line again is winning. You can talk all you want to about line movement, closing line value, etc., but if you're not winning it means nothing in the end.
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TodaysAction
Restricted User
08-01-08
12762
#91
Originally posted by Dexter
interesting find from Right Angle's site...
Rating & Grading
All plays will be rated at 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 UNITS and graded with a consensus average line from major offshore sportsbooks (Greek, Bookmaker, Pinnacle) at time of release. All plays will be listed on the Pick Archive page no more than 10 minutes after tip-off for monitoring purposes.
RAS is a honest and legit service & has their record/selections open to the public.
Comment
TodaysAction
Restricted User
08-01-08
12762
#92
Originally posted by RoagBettor
Dex, our plays are emailed and sent out on our private Twitter account, hence they are all timestamped. I post them in a thread at our site also when I can, sometimes life gets in the way.
Our record is 100% accurate and can be validated by any of our members.
Thanks.
You should have them also monitored at a non-self service site where they track each selection. Not saying, you're not being up front about the choices and amounts but when it's done independently it goes over better.
Comment
RoagBettor
SBR Hall of Famer
01-20-09
8355
#93
Originally posted by TodaysAction
You should have them also monitored at a non-self service site where they track each selection. Not saying, you're not being up front about the choices and amounts but when it's done independently it goes over better.
I'm working on that; any suggestions as to which are the best monitoring services? I've been given some conflicting information.
Thanks Terry.
Comment
sweetjones55
SBR Hall of Famer
04-07-09
5257
#94
That's a good question, How fast do the WNBA lines move once RAS releases the plays? Does anyone get the plays on here, do you always get in before the line move?
The whole "line value" that RAS claims goes completely out the window if you have to get the pick locked in in less than 1 minute. I am actually starting to think that RAS may be the worst in the industry of any sport and handicapping service at extracting line value for their members if the lines really move in 20 seconds. I have never seen a service that moves every single line and by 2-3 points on most games.
Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
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durito
SBR Posting Legend
07-03-06
13173
#95
They move in <10 seconds.
You can get them in if you know what you are doing.
Comment
sweetjones55
SBR Hall of Famer
04-07-09
5257
#96
Originally posted by durito
They move in <10 seconds.
You can get them in if you know what you are doing.
How's that?
Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
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THE HITMAN
SBR MVP
06-16-07
2408
#97
Interesting stuff............wouldn't mind more of WNBA. Not that I'm in love with the muffies, but it's somewhat of an alternative to the baseball only summers.
Comment
pm9964
SBR High Roller
06-05-09
222
#98
Originally posted by SexyMit
Or just wait and let him make his move and go the opposite. He can't hit the broad side of a barn yet, so not much running to the window cashing tickets. Just getting worse numbers and still loseing. And paying more for his plays
SexyMit- when will you start playing WNBA?
Comment
gator101
SBR High Roller
10-28-09
225
#99
Originally posted by Edward-RAS
We could probably argue all day on who is a top WNBA service and who is not. People evaluate services differently. Long term results, short term results, closing line value, pricing, release time, widely available numbers, accuracy of records, reputation, endorsements, longevity, and responsible marketing are all some of the many different criteria to consider.
One thing not up for debate is that HoopsEdge has by far the most influence on the WNBA market of any service out there right now.
This might change at some point in the future, but that alone is merit for being considered currently one of the top WNBA handicapping services.
Lol, Ed, if i recall before you kicked all the good cappers of your forum for no apparent reason last year that you got absolutly killed in the WNBA all i heard from posters is how terrible you were doing. What was your record last year? Can't remember but it wasnt good if i recall
Comment
SexyMit
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-06
6139
#100
Originally posted by gator101
Lol, Ed, if i recall before you kicked all the good cappers of your forum for no apparent reason last year that you got absolutly killed in the WNBA all i heard from posters is how terrible you were doing. What was your record last year? Can't remember but it wasnt good if i recall
46-42 -2.49 units. This year to start he is 4-9 minus almost 8 units
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
Comment
SexyMit
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-06
6139
#101
Originally posted by pm9964
SexyMit- when will you start playing WNBA?
I have already started playing Wnba Sir! Since opening day!
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
Comment
SRBI
SBR Hall of Famer
10-20-09
8393
#102
Originally posted by gator101
Lol, Ed, if i recall before you kicked all the good cappers of your forum for no apparent reason last year that you got absolutly killed in the WNBA all i heard from posters is how terrible you were doing. What was your record last year? Can't remember but it wasnt good if i recall
I can actually confirm this as BT was the first sports betting forum I ever used.
BT was a cool spot for some time until all the good cappers suddenly began disappearing left and right, and the only excuse Ed would tell members is, "these people did not use proper tracking methods and therefore cannot be a part of the BT forum".
Its all bullshit, what really happened here is Ed started losing business because of the good guys got shook n started banning them left and right. He finally banned me as well after I created a thread on this same exact topic.
Ed can't take the heat, his sports packages are whack, and his marketing attempts even more pathetic.
RAS
Comment
RoagBettor
SBR Hall of Famer
01-20-09
8355
#103
Originally posted by SRBI
I can actually confirm this as BT was the first sports betting forum I ever used.
BT was a cool spot for some time until all the good cappers suddenly began disappearing left and right, and the only excuse Ed would tell members is, "these people did not use proper tracking methods and therefore cannot be a part of the BT forum".
Its all bullshit, what really happened here is Ed started losing business because of the good guys got shook n started banning them left and right. He finally banned me as well after I created a thread on this same exact topic. Ed can't take the heat, his sports packages are whack, and his marketing attempts even more pathetic.
I'm happy to find out that Ed still sucks at what he does and the BT forum is a huge joke.
RAS
His loss is our gain; we're happy to have you SRBI!
Comment
sweetjones55
SBR Hall of Famer
04-07-09
5257
#104
Ed how do you insure that all your members get the same line you put out and not the highly inflated line once you put out a play if the line moves in less than 10 seconds?
Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
Comment
Reload
SBR Posting Legend
03-23-08
12253
#105
Originally posted by SexyMit
46-42 -2.49 units. This year to start he is 4-9 minus almost 8 units
Is this based on lines given at the time of the play or closing lines?