JerseyShop101 NBA Plays (S/F System)

JerseyShop101 · 02-24-10, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by AceofSP2107

jerz can you do coll and post like the best 2-3 games you get out of it that would be awsome

I was doing it but wasn't happy with the results. Did it again the other day and same. There is a good one across the street in an Ace-Ace Handicapping Information Thread. It involves multiple power ratings including Sagarin, but i'm just checking it out for the first time myself.

jtang0701 · 02-24-10, 02:26 AM

Keep up the good work Jersey! Been following you on your WTF plays

tavinator13 · 02-24-10, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

I was doing it but wasn't happy with the results. Did it again the other day and same. There is a good one across the street in an Ace-Ace Handicapping Information Thread. It involves multiple power ratings including Sagarin, but i'm just checking it out for the first time myself.

I checked out the thread ACE is doing on CBB, but what are they using for the "statfox edge plays"? is this same anti-statfox angle or are they doing the opposite and playing the actual powerlines recommendations?

AceofSP2107 · 02-24-10, 08:47 AM

Damn i when heacy on GS thier poop but ill try tonight good job Jerz

JerseyShop101 · 02-24-10, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by tavinator13

I checked out the thread ACE is doing on CBB, but what are they using for the "statfox edge plays"? is this same anti-statfox angle or are they doing the opposite and playing the actual powerlines recommendations?

Not sure, I have to get with jimmy jet.

JerseyShop101 · 02-24-10, 01:11 PM

3-3 on Tuesday

Updated Stats Thru 18 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 74-48 61% / 51-31 62%
Favs 27-20 57% / 15-11 58%
Dogs 47-28 63% / 36-20 64%
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-2 85% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

*Reminder: The records above are based on the Plays posted with their lines at the time of posting.

PickSix · 02-24-10, 02:24 PM

Thank you Jersey. Too bad the WTF didnt hit. Hope it will be in the plus side tonight.

JerseyShop101 · 02-24-10, 05:23 PM

Thanks PickSix,

Tonight will be a WTF test, with 3 WTF matchups!

JerseyShop101 · 02-24-10, 05:24 PM

DAY 19
Wednesday, 2/24

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
POR TRAIL BLAZERS 96
TOR RAPTORS -3 98 1

MIN TIMBERWOLVES 92
ATL HAWKS -12 101 3

MEM GRIZZLIES 93
***WAS WIZARDS +1 97 4

NO HORNETS 97
MIL BUCKS -6 99 4

IND PACERS 94
CHI BULLS -8.5 100 1.5

ORL MAGIC -4 101 1
HOU ROCKETS 98

OKC THUNDER 100
SA SPURS -4 101 3

CHA BOBCATS 96
UTAH -8 104 0

PHI 76ERS +7.5 93 1.5
PHO SUNS 102

***LA LAKERS +2 103 4
DAL MAVERICKS 101

***DET PISTONS +4 91 5
LA CLIPPERS 90

Again guys, this is just to be used as a foundation for your plays.

Updated Stats Thru 18 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 74-48 61% / 51-31 62%
Favs 27-20 57% / 15-11 58%
Dogs 47-28 63% / 36-20 64%
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-2 85% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

*Reminder: The records above are based on the Plays posted with their lines at the time of posting.

azn624 · 02-24-10, 05:33 PM

Your WTF plays are looking good tonigh, hope all 3 hits

tavinator13 · 02-25-10, 05:27 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

DAY 19
Wednesday, 2/24

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
POR TRAIL BLAZERS 96
TOR RAPTORS -3 98 1

MIN TIMBERWOLVES 92
ATL HAWKS -12 101 3

MEM GRIZZLIES 93
***WAS WIZARDS +1 97 4

NO HORNETS 97
MIL BUCKS -6 99 4

IND PACERS 94
CHI BULLS -8.5 100 1.5

ORL MAGIC -4 101 1
HOU ROCKETS 98

OKC THUNDER 100
SA SPURS -4 101 3

CHA BOBCATS 96
UTAH -8 104 0

PHI 76ERS +7.5 93 1.5
PHO SUNS 102

***LA LAKERS +2 103 4
DAL MAVERICKS 101

***DET PISTONS +4 91 5
LA CLIPPERS 90

Again guys, this is just to be used as a foundation for your plays.

Updated Stats Thru 18 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 74-48 61% / 51-31 62%
Favs 27-20 57% / 15-11 58%
Dogs 47-28 63% / 36-20 64%
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-2 85% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

*Reminder: The records above are based on the Plays posted with their lines at the time of posting.

The statfox matchup report had LAL and Dallas as even Power Rankings, thus I'm not sure if this should have been a WTF play (also the original line was 0 as well, then moved to LAL+1)

Also the statfox matchup report had LAC at -1, and the line was -4. So I think you should've played LAC -4 and also not a WTF play.

WAS was a WTF play and just plain lost lol

Maybe I'm wrong here but just what I got...I use sportsbook.com's statfox feed, click on the "matchup," and it generates the PowerRanking line for you automatically. LMK what you think

tavinator13 · 02-25-10, 05:46 AM

Oh and the statfox matchup report had a powerline of TOR -4 (the line was -3) so shouldn't we have taken POR +3 and would have won?

By the way I really think your on to something here, went 6-1 anti statfox and lost the one WTF play I played!

tavinator13 · 02-25-10, 05:50 AM

ALSO a filter you might consider...I'm still testing it out:
I have been passing on games that the spread is greater than 9.5 (CLE -11.5 Yesterday, and ATL -12 today), and both have lost. I also remember SAC+10 did not cover vs PHX a couple days back, so thats 3 units off the top of my head. Still testing it out, might consider taking the opposite, or playing the ML on these I don't really know yet, but for now have been passing on them.

Do you by chance have an excel spreadsheet of all your plays to date since you've started tracking (the last 19 days) so I could look into some other possible filters? Thanks again and hope you understand I really think this has some potential, not trying to rip on your system at all just make it better

JerseyShop101 · 02-25-10, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by tavinator13

The statfox matchup report had LAL and Dallas as even Power Rankings, thus I'm not sure if this should have been a WTF play (also the original line was 0 as well, then moved to LAL+1)

Also the statfox matchup report had LAC at -1, and the line was -4. So I think you should've played LAC -4 and also not a WTF play.

WAS was a WTF play and just plain lost lol

Maybe I'm wrong here but just what I got...I use sportsbook.com's statfox feed, click on the "matchup," and it generates the PowerRanking line for you automatically. LMK what you think

I've been pulling the Statfox Power Ratings straight from there website, and just adding 3 points for the home team. I haven't looked at the matchup/Statfox feed from sportsbook.com, so I can't comment on that. I'll have to check it out. I alos use the current line from Bookmaker at the time of posting.

JerseyShop101 · 02-25-10, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by tavinator13

ALSO a filter you might consider...I'm still testing it out:
I have been passing on games that the spread is greater than 9.5 (CLE -11.5 Yesterday, and ATL -12 today), and both have lost. I also remember SAC+10 did not cover vs PHX a couple days back, so thats 3 units off the top of my head. Still testing it out, might consider taking the opposite, or playing the ML on these I don't really know yet, but for now have been passing on them.

Do you by chance have an excel spreadsheet of all your plays to date since you've started tracking (the last 19 days) so I could look into some other possible filters? Thanks again and hope you understand I really think this has some potential, not trying to rip on your system at all just make it better

Actually, I don't have them grouped together, but you could copy paste them together from the posted plays in the threads. I have heard Sharps say never take a favorite over 8, so thats good advice.

JerseyShop101 · 02-25-10, 08:14 AM

4-6 on Wednesday, WTF Plays go 0-3

Updated Stats Thru 19 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 78-54 59% / 53-35 60%
Favs 31-22 58% / 17-12 59%
Dogs 47-32 59% / 36-23 61%
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-5 69% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

I guess we were due for one of these bad days. But even running Statfox the conventional way finished worse at 3-7. And as I've seen across forumville, it was a bad day for most "systems" even in CBB.

PacmanJr_00 · 02-25-10, 04:57 PM

tough run..just needs a tweak or two i'm sure

JerseyShop101 · 02-25-10, 05:31 PM

DAY 20
Thursday, 2/25

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
MIL BUCKS -1 98
IND PACERS 97 0

CLE CAVALIERS 100
***BOS CELTICS +2.5 101 3.5

DEN NUGGETS -5.5 100 1.5
GS WARRIORS 9

Note: Be careful as Boston only as it only becomes a WTF play because of the line movement. And Denver is a fav under 4.

scratbandit · 02-25-10, 06:00 PM

The WTF will get back on track tonight. There is no real reason for the switch in the spread. The same thing happened in the pitt and norte dame ncaab yesterday....

scrat

AceofSP2107 · 02-25-10, 11:05 PM

celts are poop

jtang0701 · 02-25-10, 11:30 PM

Celts are always letting me down *sigh

JerseyShop101 · 02-25-10, 11:42 PM

The Celtics loss makes 4 WTF losses in a row. I wish there was a line for 1st 3 quarters only. 3 would be wins and 1 was a tie. (There actually was a book last year talking about doing just that, but it never came about).

And meant to put all 4 were winning at the half also.

AceofSP2107 · 02-25-10, 11:50 PM

jerz quick question by the end of the season what kind of winning rate you look for becuse i thnak you for doing this i just stared tailing

JerseyShop101 · 02-26-10, 02:31 AM

1-1 on Thursday, WTF Play lost

Updated Stats Thru 20 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 79-55 59% / 53-36 60%
Favs 32-22 59% / 17-12 59%
Dogs 47-33 59% / 36-24 60%
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-6 65%

JerseyShop101 · 02-26-10, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by AceofSP2107

jerz quick question by the end of the season what kind of winning rate you look for becuse i thnak you for doing this i just stared tailing

I would like to see 60% and up.

Even though the last 3 days were rough (losing 3 units), our current record is still 79-55 (59%) +18.50 units.

A $50 player is up $925 in just 20 days.

QUEST001 · 02-26-10, 03:30 AM

Nice work jersey. Just looked over your thread. Cool stuff..+ 18 units is great in 20 days very nice. Look fwd to c if we agree on picks. Friday i like atl, okcity,bulls to get there revenge from november on portland..my best play..good luck bro

PacmanJr_00 · 02-26-10, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

The Celtics loss makes 4 WTF losses in a row. I wish there was a line for 1st 3 quarters only. 3 would be wins and 1 was a tie. (There actually was a book last year talking about doing just that, but it never came about).

And meant to put all 4 were winning at the half also.

what about 2st half only? you are right though, the wtf teams have fallen off in the 4th for whatever reason, of late..

JerseyShop101 · 02-26-10, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

what about 2st half only? you are right though, the wtf teams have fallen off in the 4th for whatever reason, of late..

I don't have the 2nd half lines to compare.

Hope it gets back on track tonight.

JerseyShop101 · 02-26-10, 06:15 PM

DAY 21
Friday, 2/26

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
CLE CAVALIERS -5.5 102 0.5
TOR RAPTORS 97

NY KNICKS +1.5 91 3.5
WAS WIZARDS 96

ORL MAGIC -5 102 0
NO HORNETS 98

MIN TIMBERWOLVES +9.5 92 0.5
OKC THUNDER 102

DAL MAVERICKS 99
ATL HAWKS -3101 1

POR TRAIL BLAZERS 97
CHI BULLS -3.5 100 0.5

CHA BOBCATS 96
MEM GRIZZLIES -3 97 2

SA SPURS -3.5 99 1.5
HOU ROCKETS 97

DET PISTONS +9.5 90 4.5
DEN NUGGETS 104

UTAH 101
SAC KINGS +7 91 3

LA CLIPPERS +9 88 5
PHO SUNS 102

PHI 76ERS +11 93 1
LA LAKERS 105

Updated Stats Thru 20 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 79-55 (59%) +18.50 / 53-36(60%) +13.40
Favs 32-22 (59%) +7.80 / 17-12 (59%) +3.80
Dogs 47-33 (59%) +10.70/ 36-24 (60%) +9.60
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-6 (65%) +4.40

PacmanJr_00 · 02-26-10, 09:12 PM

sry I meant 1st half lines..bad typing on my part..i'll give it a look and get back here..

JerseyShop101 · 02-27-10, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

sry I meant 1st half lines..bad typing on my part..i'll give it a look and get back here..

I should of realized that, sorry,

The last 4 WTF plays:
Betting on them for the:
1Q went 3-1
1H went 4-0

JerseyShop101 · 02-27-10, 04:19 AM

6-5 on Friday

Updated Stats Thru 21 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 85-60 (59%) +19.00 / 56-38 (60%) +14.20
Favs 34-25 (58%) +6.50 / 17-13 (57%) +2.70
Dogs 51-35 (59%) +12.50/ 39-25 (61%) +11.50
Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-6 (65%) +4.40

JerseyShop101 · 02-27-10, 11:46 AM

DAY 22
Saturday, 2/27

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
NJ NETS +10 85 4
BOS CELTICS 99

MIL BUCKS +1.5 98 3.5
MIA HEAT 103

CHI BULLS 97
IND PACERS -3 97 3

MEM GRIZZLIES 94
***NY KNICKS +2.5 95 3.5

POR TRAIL BLAZERS -3.5 97 0.5
MIN TIMBERWOLVES 94

HOU ROCKETS 95
UTAH -9.5 103 1.5

DET PISTONS +4 91 0
GS WARRIORS 95

Can the WTF get back on the winning track? I think so!

Good luck today everyone!

JerseyShop101 · 02-27-10, 08:19 PM

2-0 start today

I am going to have to revisit using Statfox for CBB totals. Just for fun in our SBR Points contest I chose 16 CBB totals using Statfox, so far its 12-2 with 2 pending, good enough for 1st place out of 179 peeps.

Leaderboard
View All

Rank Name Record Win Percent Units Streak Action Pending
1 JerseyShop101 12-2-0 85.71 % +29.40 W 7 148.0 2 pending
2 texashighroller 10-2-0 83.33 % +19.60 W 1 47.0 4 pending
3 LUCKYCHUCK 10-4-2 71.43 % +16.80 L 1 27.5 -
4 Augie 8-1-0 88.89 % +15.80 W 4 78.0 7 pending
5 Crnjak 7-2-0 77.78 % +15.60 L 1 97.0 7 pending
6 in2thethickofit 10-5-1 66.67 % +13.50 W 4 53.5 -
7 SirChevron 10-5-1 66.67 % +13.50 W 1 48.5 -
8 WeinketoWarrick 10-5-0 66.67 % +13.50 W 1 46.5 1 pending
9 Vince Lombardi 8-2-0 80.00 % +13.40 W 1 56.5 3 pending
10 xxx 4-0-0 100.00 % +12.00 W 4 43.5 12 pending

The last 2 are:

Maryland vs Virginia Tech Over 145 (-110) NCAAB [BookMaker]
02/27/10 04:00 PM ET

Oregon State vs Southern California Over 106 (-110) NCAAB [BookMaker]
02/27/10 07:30 PM ET

cookiepie · 02-27-10, 08:21 PM

nice insight