JerseyShop101 NBA Plays (S/F System)

[Intangible]

Does your system incorporate player injuries and such?

[JerseyShop101]

Does your system incorporate player injuries and such?

Since those are already included in the vegas line, theres no need for an adjustment. Now,don't get me wrong, I am still worried with Wade being out, but Miami is still the play.

[JerseyShop101]

Another situation (I'm happy to say) arises again tonight for those that bet Miami for the game. Miami is up by 8 at the half.

With the 2H line of Dallas -10, you could take Dallas and hope for them to win from 11 to 18 points in the 2nd half to win both bets. But, I honestly would still find it hard to root against my main play.

[kd1250]

hey jersey, been following your system and it look pretty good but i still don't understand the concept for WFT or something like that. it look very interesting though. do you mind to share the concept and has it been working for other sports too such as CBB or NFL?
Thanks

[JerseyShop101]

hey jersey, been following your system and it look pretty good but i still don't understand the concept for WFT or something like that. it look very interesting though. do you mind to share the concept and has it been working for other sports too such as CBB or NFL?
Thanks

Just copy pasting:
This is an Anti-Statfox system, with the exception of taking the dog when the dog has a higher Statfox rating (which we call our WTF- Wrong Team Favored plays). We look for differences in the spread of 2 or more. The whole basis is to question "Why does Pinnacle/Bookmaker have a line OFF by 2 or more points than what Statfox has? More times than not, the Bookmakers are correct and Statfox is wrong. These can be used as a foundation to your plays.

It can be used for CBB as well, but I haven't kept track of the results, and from what I have seen it wasn't much beter than 50% in the small amount that I did track.

[azn624]

this result have been great so far though and have followed games that both this and I like but definitely play all wtf plays still they have been winning at a high percentage. Hope this continues for the rest of the season.

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks Azn, I hope we can all build up our bankrolls with this!

[JerseyShop101]

Another situation (I'm happy to say) arises again tonight for those that bet Miami for the game. Miami is up by 8 at the half.

With the 2H line of Dallas -10, you could take Dallas and hope for them to win from 11 to 18 points in the 2nd half to win both bets. But, I honestly would still find it hard to root against my main play.

Winner!

Miami 27 25 12 27 91 Final


Dallas 21 23 27 26 97

[JerseyShop101]

5-2 on Saturday, including our WTF play covering!

Updated Stats Thru 15 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 64-40 62% / 42-24 64%
Favs 25-17 60% / 14-9 61%
Dogs 39-23 63% / 28-15 65%
***Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 10-1 91% (9 of the 10 wins have won outright)
(4 Feb) Portland +2 against San Antonio (Port won outright 96-93)
(5 Feb) Milwaukee +2 against New York (Milw won outright 114-107)
(7 Feb) Orlando +2.5 against Boston (Orl won outright 96-89)
(10Feb) Sacramento +4.5 against Detroit (Sac won outright 103-97)
(10Feb) New Orleans +4.5 against Boston (NO won outright 93-85)
(10Feb) Golden State +1.5 against LA Clippers (GS won outright 132-102)
(16Feb) Miami Heat +2 against Philadelphia (Miami won outright 105-78)
(17Feb) Chicago +2.5 against New York (Chicago won outright 115-109)
(17Feb) Phoenix +4 against Dallas (Phoenix LOST 97-107)
(19Feb) Miami +6.5 against Memphis (Miami won outright 87-84)
(20Feb) Miami +10.5 against Dallas (Miami covers 91-97)


10 winning, 1 losing, and 4 losing juice only days

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 16
Sunday, 2/20

PLAYS IN BLUE

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
CLE CAVALIERS +2 100 2
ORL MAGIC 104

BOS CELTICS 99
DEN NUGGETS -4.5 103 0.5

SA SPURS 99
DET PISTONS +4.5 92 2.5

MEM GRIZZLIES -5 92 2
NJ NETS 89

HOU ROCKETS +1.5 95 3.5
NO HORNETS 100

OKL THUNDER 102
MIN T`WOLVES +5 92 5

ATL HAWKS -5 97 5
GS WARRIORS 97

SAC KINGS +10 89 2
PHO SUNS 101

UTAH 102
POR TRAIL BLAZERS +1 99 2

Notes: No WTF plays todays. ATL -5 game- We have had 3 instances where the power ratings were the same for both teams, and we are 3-0 by taking the fav. Sac line has dropped 1.5 pts down to +10, and Minn dropped from earlier +6.5 down to +5.



Updated Stats Thru 15 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 64-40 62% / 42-24 64%
Favs 25-17 60% / 14-9 61%
Dogs 39-23 63% / 28-15 65%
***Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 10-1 91% (9 of the 10 wins have won outright)

[whatsgood5]

Nice day saturday, and nice job so far. Good luck today, love your Grizzlies pick.

[whatsgood5]

I did go against you on the Cavs, Wolves, Kings and Blazers though. Doesn't look good for me then

[tavinator13]

Just started tailing you on these pics.

Have you by chance backtested this angle at all? If not do you know if past Statfox power rankings are available, so I could do some backtesting myself (specifically interested in your WTF plays)?

[JerseyShop101]

Just started tailing you on these pics.

Have you by chance backtested this angle at all? If not do you know if past Statfox power rankings are available, so I could do some backtesting myself (specifically interested in your WTF plays)?

I don't have it, but I am glad you asked. There is a poster here on SBR that was able to go back the past 3 or so years if I'm not mistaken. He did it for Statfox the "conventional" way, results weren't too impressive. It would be great to check all those WTF situations, and more importantly I would love to have those results to put through some other filters.

I'll do a search to try to track this poster down.

Thank you.

[AceofSP2107]

hope to see WTF this week jershp need a big week letss GOO

[tavinator13]

Yes please do let me know what you find out, as I would love to run this through some filter as you seem to really be on to something.

And I'm sure you'll be posting your picks later, but just making sure I understand this WTF angle. So for NY/Mil...we play Mil (+1) because they are a Statfox favorite, yet a line underdog?

[JerseyShop101]

Yes please do let me know what you find out, as I would love to run this through some filter as you seem to really be on to something.

And I'm sure you'll be posting your picks later, but just making sure I understand this WTF angle. So for NY/Mil...we play Mil (+1) because they are a Statfox favorite, yet a line underdog?

Exactly, keep in mind though that Statfox hasn't updated their power ratings yet. They usually update it around 10 or 11 am est.

[JerseyShop101]

4-5 on Sunday

Updated Stats Thru 16 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 68-45 60% / 45-29 61%
Favs 27-18 60% / 15-10 60%
Dogs 41-27 60% / 30-19 61%
***Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 10-1 91% (9 of the 10 wins have won outright)

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 17
Monday, 2/21

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
CHI BULLS -2 98 0
WAS WIZARDS 96

***MIL BUCKS +1 95 2
NY KNICKS 94

IND PACERS 94
DAL MAVERICKS -9 101 1

ATL HAWKS +5 97 3
UTAH 105

CHA BOBCATS 97
LA CLIPPERS +3.5 89 4.5

[tavinator13]

sweet deal got the same thing..except I lucked out and go Mil(+1.5), Dal(-8.5), & Atl(+6).

I've noticed it really helps to look at the overnight lines & betting trends (I don't use them but sportsbook.com for example shows where the majority of the public is betting) to anticipate line changes according to who the system will bet on. For example last night 92% of the public was on NY so I waited until today and the line (temporarily) moved to 1.5. Similarly the overnight line for ATL was at +6 so I snagged it as the majority of the public was on ATL so I figured the line would go down. Pretty basic betting strategy, but just a thought since you can determine your plays so early with this system.

Good work though and BOL today

[AceofSP2107]

YEAHHHHHH JERZ MY man ...are you from the state of jersey if i can ask

[JerseyShop101]

Great job Tavinator!

AceofSP, I'm originally from South philly, have family all over New Jersey.

We kicking azz!

[JerseyShop101]

3-0-1 on Monday with another WTF win!



Updated Stats Thru 17 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 71-45 61% / 48-29 62%
Favs 27-18 60% / 15-10 60%
Dogs 44-27 62% / 33-19 63%
***Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-1 92% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

All I can Say is WTF!!!

[PacmanJr_00]

how can you beat a name like WTF plays??!!

[LVD09]

i still dont get how you make your picks based on the system can you explain it better? or like a step process in how to come up the the picks? sorry man i'm really having a hard time figuring it out haha. a reply would be much appreciated

[JerseyShop101]

i still dont get how you make your picks based on the system can you explain it better? or like a step process in how to come up the the picks? sorry man i'm really having a hard time figuring it out haha. a reply would be much appreciated

This is an Anti-Statfox system, with the exception of taking the dog when the dog has a higher Statfox rating (which I call our WTF- Wrong Team Favored plays). We look for differences in the spread of 2 or more. The whole basis is to question "Why does Pinnacle/Bookmaker have a line OFF by 2 or more points than what Statfox has? More times than not, the Bookmakers are correct and Statfox is wrong. These can be used as a foundation to your plays.

[AceofSP2107]

jerz thats crazy im form south philly myself ...um im around the marconi park are !!

[JerseyShop101]

As you guys know, the other day I didn't count Utah over Portland as a WTF win as I had Portland +1 at the time of posting, or the WTF record would actually be 12-1 right now.

And here we go again

Opening line was GST -1 and has since moved to Philly -1 making Golden State the WTF Play.

Philadelphia 92
***Golden State +1 97 5

I know its too early, but current Public percentages:
SBR has 63% of the Public on Philly.
Its just the reverse at Covers, with 71% on GST
Sportsbook has 90% on Philly.

[AceofSP2107]

so there more plays

[scratbandit]

amazing..

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 18
Tuesday, 2/23

PLAYS IN BLUE, WTF PLAYS in RED

Team/Power Rating/Line Difference
New Orleans 97
Cleveland -11.5 103 5.5

Minnesota +8 90 7
Miami 105

New York +9.5 90 2.5
Boston 102

Portland 96
New Jersey +8 88 0

LA Lakers 103
Memphis +5 96 2

Phoenix 98
Oklahoma City -6 104 0

Detroit 90
Sacramento -2.5 92 0.5

Philadelphia 92
***Golden State +1 97 5

Please note:
The Golden State WTF play came about because of line movement and Sacramento game has only a .5 diff, so be careful.

Cleveland losers of 3 in a row, where the line should really be only 6, giving a huge 11.5 points. Seems the books are begging for the public to take the points, which they are of course (62%). I like Cleveland to roll here.


Updated Stats Thru 17 Days:
---- All ---------/ Diff Off 2&up
NBA 71-45 61% / 48-29 62%
Favs 27-18 60% / 15-10 60%
Dogs 44-27 62% / 33-19 63%
***Wrong Team Favored (WTF) Plays: 11-1 92% (10 of the 11 wins have won outright)

[krazey47409]

il i ke the g state pick was thinking bout it sixers my home team suck but whenevr i bet against them they seem to win and if i bet on them they lose i might get on this game though nah i dont think i can do it sixers 2 unpredictable

[JerseyShop101]

il i ke the g state pick was thinking bout it sixers my home team suck but whenevr i bet against them they seem to win and if i bet on them they lose i might get on this game though nah i dont think i can do it sixers 2 unpredictable

I understand that. Its tough to root against your home teams sometimes, esepcially if your a die-hard fan

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[JerseyShop101]

Disappointed with Cleveland, but still a nice 3-1 with the last 2 games on our card remaining.

[AceofSP2107]

jerz can you do coll and post like the best 2-3 games you get out of it that would be awsome