1. #1
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Jay Edgar NBA, Thursday 03.15.07

    Through Wednesday 03.14.07

    5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Wednesday, 2-7, -4.40u
    (IND, NY. CHA, ORL, PHI, ATL, MEM, LAC, POR)
    YTD 250-461, +35.79u
    (since the ASB: 41-96, -29.92u)

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Wednesday, 4-5, -1.25u
    YTD 372-327 (.532) +28.65u
    (since the ASB: 64-70 (.478) -9.50u)


    Eight teams with a power rating of 60 or better. That’s something new this year, as far as I can remember.

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 SAN 77
    2 CLE 67
    3 DAL 65
    4 MIA 65
    5 UTH 65
    6 CHI 62
    7 PHX 61
    8 DET 60
    9 GS 54
    10 HOU 53
    11 TOR 52
    12 PHI 52
    13 MIL 51
    14 POR 49
    15 ORL 47
    16 DEN 47
    17 WAS 47
    18 NJ 46
    19 BOS 46
    20 NY 46
    21 LAC 45
    22 SAC 44
    23 ATL 44
    24 SEA 44
    25 NOK 41
    26 CHA 38
    27 MIN 36
    28 LAX 36
    29 MEM 35
    30 IND 31

    EDGAR LINES FOR 03.15.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    NJ 2.8/132 over MIA

    MIL 2.1/123 over SAN

    DEN 5.6/197 over LAX


    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    MIA +157, NJ -112

    SAN +147, MIL -104

    LAX +239, DEN -164


    At this point there does not seem to be a significant drop-off in performance at the higher %-OFF levels. So in the interest of simplicity I’m not going to run the chart of “20%-OFF” markers any more.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    I'm gonna have to take a shot with the Bucks tomorrow Jay.

  3. #3
    AC1318
    AC1318's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-06
    Posts: 6,712
    Betpoints: 60

    looking like:

    bucks
    lakers
    tonight

  4. #4
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    % TEAM ATS ML
    31 MIL WIN 290

    Through Thursday 03.15.07

    5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Thursday, 1-0, +2.90u
    (MIL)
    YTD 251-461, +38.69u
    (since the ASB: 42-96, -27.02u)

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Thursday, 1-0, +1.00u
    YTD 373-327 (.533) +29.65u
    (since the ASB: 65-70 (.481) -8.50u)

Top