[Judgejoebrwn]

Down 25.1U

4/3/12

I have to say, there isn't a whole lot that has jumped out to me on this card tonight. Still, there are a few plays I found to my liking.

5U - Nets +8.5 - I just can't avoid the opportunity to take this many points against a Bynum-less Lakers. Even with Bryant pounding it, Golden State still covered. The Nets are the best road team (in terms of shitty teams) in the league and have been playing solid as of late. With D. Will dishing mad assists, Humphries in the paint, Wallace scoring and grabbing boards, and Morrow playing well off the bench, the Nets have the tools to win this game - the points are just a gift.

3U - Magic/Pistons U183 - Both teams are notorious for low-scoring games and tonight, Anderson is out for Orlando and Stuckey is still out for Detroit. I can't really imagine either team breaking 90 points, but I believe Orlando will cover something to the tune of 88-79.

2U - Memphis -7.5 - Just going with the better team here. Nothing really more to be said.

2U - Suns -2.5 - I took the Kings last night, but Minny is an injury-plagued wreck. Suns not so much, and Thornton is out tonight for the Kings with no real solid replacement to step up. I imagine Suns take this in a semi-high scoring affair in the neighborhood of 106-96.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

P.S. Shorter write-ups...gotta eat!

[Judgejoebrwn]

Didn't think Howard was going to be out, so I think Detroit has a solid chance at the cover here. Still like the under, despite 97 in the first half.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Detroit shooting 55%...so much for that under.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Memphis had a huge run in the 4th, but couldn't quite close it out. However, both late games pulled through, including Phoenix that was almost EXACTLY how I called it

Nets +8.5 - Win (5U)
Suns -2.5 - Win (2U)
Magic/Pistons -183 - Loss (3.3U)
Memphis -7.5 - Loss (2.2U)

All in all, up 1.5U on the night. I'll take it. Hopefully keep it rolling today.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

NBA - 4/4/12

10U - Bucks -11.5 - Cleveland has looked like absolute shit lately,
They've lost their last 7 games in a row, all by more than 12 points. These two
teams met just 5 days ago - they were in Cleveland, the Cavs had a day of rest -
and Milwaukee blew them out by 37 points. Tonight they're in Milwaukee with
Cleveland on a b2b. I'm truly surprised the line is this low, but I'll be even
more surprised if Cleveland somehow covers.

5U - Charlotte +13 - This was a hard bet to make, but regardless of
being the worst team in the league, 13 points is a hard spread to give anyone.
Atlanta is 5-5 in their last 10 and has only won one of those five by 13+
against the Cavs. Charlotte is a terrible team, yet haven't lost by 13 once in
their last 5 games. This could go easily either way, so tail at your own risk,
but I think Atlanta lacks reason to put forth effort to blow out the worst team
in the league. I think they'll do enough to get a comfortable win at home by
8-10 and close in on Orlando.

5U - Charlotte/Atlana -186.5 (-101) - Travelling from Toronto to
Atlanta and playing against the Hawks defense, I can't fathom Charlotte putting
up many points in this game. I also don't see Atlanta putting out a whole lot
of effort tonight as it shouldn't take much to secure the victory here. I'd be
looking for Atlanta to take this one 92-82.

3U - Boston +1 - Both Boston and San Antonio have been on fire as of
late, amassing large win streaks and winning their last 5 in a row by an average
of 14 points. In this situation, I just have to take the rested, home team.

3U - Nets +8 (-102) - Another hard choice as the Blazers are pretty
unpredictable at the moment. However, the Nets are rather consistent, winning 3
of their last 4 and covering all 4. For all we know, the Blazers could turn
into the dominant home team they were earlier in the season tonight, but in
their last 7 home games they've only won one by more than 8 against the
injury-wrought, defenseless Timberwolves. Even the Hornets only lost by 6 in
Portland, and the reduced line of -102 is certainly nice.

2U - Suns/Jazz +201.5 - The Suns have scored or allowed 99+ points in
9 of their last 10. The Jazz have scored 100+ is 7 of their last 10 and I think
they'll do so again easily tonight against the b2b Suns. The first meeting
between these two was just 3 weeks ago and ended with a total of 231. I think
this one stays reasonably tight (probably a Suns cover) in the realm of 108-103
Utah.

BOL everyone!

[Judgejoebrwn]

Added: 5U - Milwaukee -12.5 - Irving is out. Had t take the opportunity for a bit more profit.

Also: 2U - Miami -2.5 - Debated back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think Miami is going to want it more than OKC.

Also: 2U - Philidelphia -8.5 + Toronto/Philidephila -183 Parlay (+265) - Light play for great profit. Imagine this game going to Philly 95-80.

[Judgejoebrwn]

...what a f*cking night. Funny thing is I should be saying those same words but for entirely more positive reasons. 20U down the drain on two games - one blowout and one comfortable win - that I flip-flopped.

Tonight, the Bucks went 2 for 11 from the arc and 9 for 17 from the free throw line. That's just godawful. Dunleavy was a huge culprit of that, going 0 for 3 from the arc and 1-3 from the foul line. In 25 mins, he managed just 5 points. Yet the last time these teams met, he went 4 of 5 from downtown and 2 of 2 from the line and a total of 16 points in 19 mins. Then, Cavs' Parker decides to go ahead and score more points tonight than he has in HIS PAST THREE GAMES COMBINED! The Bucks just decided not to play ANY defense whatsoever in the 4th, allowing Cleveland to score 23 points in the last 5:13. They just...gave up, man.

If the Bucks would have shot just 4 of 11 from the arc, 13 of 17 from the line, played with any level of enthusiasm in the second half, or Parker had just a solid game rather than a phenomenal one...there was just no logical reason Cleveland should have covered.

Philidelphia apparently missed the memo that state the object of the game is to put the round orange thing through the ring with cloth hanging from it. Funny thing is my score was almost dead on, just got the teams wrong.

The Hawks decided their next two games are against Detroit and ANOTHER game against Charlotte. Guess they decided they have no need to play D as they can outscore them and chose to blow them out today.

Down a f*ckton tonight, regardless of how the other bets go.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Bucks -12.5 - Loss (16.5U) - That hurts...
Charlotte +13 - Loss (5.5U) - Knew this was a tough one. Probably should have avoided.
Boston +1 - Push - Pierce missed the buzzer beater, but I'll take anything that's not a loss.
Suns/Jazz +201.5 - Win (2U) - Maybe I should just stick to totals. Seem to be right in range of 80% of them.
Miami -2.5 - Win (2U) - Big performance from Lebron and they held on nicely.
Philidelphia -8.5 + Philly/Toronto -183 - Loss (2U) - Was almost dead on again with the total, just the wrong team.

Waiting on the Nets. Looked good at the half, but Portland is running away with this 3Q.

Edit: Nets took the lead in the 4th, but missed their last 9 FG attempts, allowing Portland to go on a 16-2 run to win by 13. Didn't help D. Will was out at the start of the game due to a tummy ache...

Nets +8 - Loss (3.3)

Down 23.3U tonight alone.

Going back to smaller bets. No plays larger than 5U. And the next time I have BS losing night, I'll be fading myself. I WILL get my record positive, for smart or non-smart reasons.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

4/5/12

Down 46.9U currently. Not what you really want to start a post saying (unless of course you are indeed fading). Hopefully you're not doing either and just enjoying my decent into the depths of hell.

Moving on, only 4 games tonight, but still a couple of small opportunities.

1U - Kings +3 - ATS throughout the season, these teams match up very well. It's basically a pick 'em in that regard, so I have to take the rested +.500 home team against the b2b -.500 road team. The Clips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 b2b.

2U - Clippers/Kings +206 - The Kings are like the Lightning in the NHL (or lately the Pens) - the over is always a solid option. The Clippers have gone over in 66.7% of their road games this season, while the Kings have gone over (or pushed) in 66.7% of their home games. There are also far too many trends that point towards an over here as well. In addition, the Clippers played a hell of a game last night and will likely be a "little" tired. They also had no luck whatsoever in containing Bynum last night and it's possible they'll have a similar issue with Cousins. I envision this game ending in the neighborhood of 110-108, but I can tell you which team is which.

1U - Pistons -8 - With Nene and Booker doubtful tonight, the Wizards become as terrible as their record indicates. They're also playing b2b and travelling across the country. The Pistons may even get Stuckey back tonight, but I think they cover regardless. Not taking any chances on the total, however.

2U - Chicago/Boston -177 - Regardless of whether or not Rose plays, I don't see this going over. Both teams play great D and both teams are notorious for low-scoring games. Put them together and put Boston on a b2b after the Spurs and we've got a solid under recipe. Not taking my chances on a Bulls cover, but I think they take this game 89-78.

BOL everyone, and my deepest apologies to anyone that may have lost money on my plays thus far.

-Judge

[true blue 26]

i like all of your picks. pistons not so much, nevertheless gl

[Judgejoebrwn]

Biting the bullet...

Adding: 2U - Bulls -7

Also: 2U - Pistons/Wizards -191

Please don't backfire...

[Judgejoebrwn]

Wish motherf*ckers would quit f*cking fouling with 2 f*cking minutes left in the game!

[Judgejoebrwn]

3 shooting fouls in 15 seconds...seriously, Detroit?! Seriously?! So much for that BS.

In the span of TWENTY-TWO SECONDS (2:18-1:56), there were 6 fouls resulting in 10 points from free throws. Shit is unbelievable.

[scholesy]

Seems like you weren't watching the game.
The Wizards were intentionally fouling Ben Wallace (a notoriously poor free throw shooter) right before the 2:00 mark in the 4th quarter, hence so many fouls during that span, problem was he made most of those LOL.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Seems like you weren't watching the game.
The Wizards were intentionally fouling Ben Wallace (a notoriously poor free throw shooter) right before the 2:00 mark in the 4th quarter, hence so many fouls during that span, problem was he made most of those LOL.

No I wasn't watching, but I knew they were intentionally fouling. However, I seem to recall MOST games not starting the intentionally-fouling crap with that much time left. Usually there's 45 seconds to go and they're down by 3-4. With 2 minutes to go and down 6-7, you have plenty of time for multiple possessions. But the real kicker was the 3 shooting fouls from Detroit. Just PLAY D, don't foul people in the act of shooting. Just terrible.

[Judgejoebrwn]

...and it backfired. Just barely got the push on the Bulls and lost the under by 3 points due to unbelievable fouls.

4/5/12

Down 46.9U currently. Not what you really want to start a post saying (unless of course you are indeed fading). Hopefully you're not doing either and just enjoying my decent into the depths of hell.

1U - Kings +3 - Loss (1.1U)

2U - Clippers/Kings +206 - Loss (2.2U)

1U - Pistons -8 - Loss (1.1U)

2U - Chicago/Boston -177 - Loss (2.2U)

2U - Bulls - 7 - Push

2U - Pistons/Wizards -191 Loss (2.2U)

Missed the two unders by 2 points each due to crazy fouls, only managed a push on the Bulls because they played like shit the first half, and who the hell knows what happened on the Clips/Kings game.

Anywho, Down 55.7U now. Had another capper been fading my plays exactly, he'd be the best on these forums by a landslide. I'm looking to fade my own plays tonight, but I need to evaluate exactly how bad I've been doing as most of those units came from a few poor large bets. Will edit this shortly.

Analysis Edit

My record in this thread is 15-24-2.
Remove last night and my 5+ unit plays and I'm 12-14-1.
Last night and my 5+ unit plays have accounted for 37.8U of the 55.7U I'm down.

With that in mind, I can't just blindly fade my picks JUST yet. Got a few smart plays I think tonight. If they can't pull through, there is no hope.

[Judgejoebrwn]

TTD - 15-24-2 (Down 55.7U)

4/6/12

Here are my plays for what may be my last shot at betting for a while.

2U - Lakers -5.5 - The Lakers at home cannot be taken lightly. The Rockets on the road can (unless of course you're an unenthusiastic Bulls squad). When the line opened at 7, it was intimidating. At 5.5, I think the non-ATS-covering ways at home are over for L.A.

2U - Bucks -13 - The Bucks are the team the destroys weaker teams. They would've done it to Cleveland twice the other night had Parker not put on the game of his career. Milwaukee has scored 105+ in 11 of their last 15 games and the number only got higher against weaker squads. Charlotte has only hit 95+ in two of their last 9 (all of which were losses). A 15-point win should be easy.

2U - Thunder -3.5 - Indiana's on a 3-game win streak and OKC is looking to avoid their first 3-game losing streak of the season. This is only their 2nd 2-game losing streak on the year, their first followed by a 15-point victory over Houston. In all of OKC's wins following a S.U. loss, not one has come by less than 4 points. And they won't start tonight.

2U - Grizzlies +7.5 - Miami has won 17 in a row at home and tonight they'll go for a franchise-record 18. I think they get it, but Memphis should keep it close. Miami has only won 1 of their last 4 home games by more than 7. Look for a hard-fought, close victory for the Heat.

1U - Pistons +8.5 - Pistons are on a b2b and the Hawks are playing great, but both times these teams have met this season, they've been close games. I think the Hawks will be looking to relax a bit tonight as their last game and their next game are to the Bobcats. Easy 3-game stretch for Atlanta, but I think this will lead to them underestimating the Pistons on the road. They'll hold off Detroit in the end for a comfortable 6-point victory.

1U - Suns +3 - Suns have played great lately, winning 3 in a row and 5 of their last 7. Denver on the other hand hasn't been playing that great, losing 4 of their last 7 including their most recent game in New Orleans. Now they're returning home after a 7-game road trip, which is always a horrible spot to be in. Phoenix had the day off, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. I like the Suns to win this S.U., but I'll take the points.

1U - Warriors +8 - Utah is great at home and the Warriors are 1-6 in their last 7 games. However, they've been covering machines despite their "D-league" roster. These teams have met 3 times before and not once have the Jazz won by 8+. Even the last meeting went to OT, and that was without Ellis and in Utah. The Warriors have been keeping their games entertaining and close and I think they do it again tonight.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Bucks played like shit. Guess they need a solid center to be effective in terms of spreads.

Thunder looked like shit. Got 40+ from Durant, but Hardin and Westbrook blew it big.

Grizzlies were phenomenal, and the Heat played like shit.

Pistons came through in what was the most consistent game of the night thus far.

Phoenix was in good shape until they allowed a 9-0 run to finish the 4th, missing their last 8 shots.

Warriors pulled through, but almost blew it.

Lakers will determine a positive (barely) or negative night. If I were a bettin' man (har f*cking har), I'd imagine the latter.

[Judgejoebrwn]

TTD - 15-24-2 (Down 55.7U)

4/6/12

2U - Lakers -5.5 - Loss (2.2U)

2U - Bucks -13 - Loss (2.2U)

2U - Thunder -3.5 - Loss (2.2U)

2U - Grizzlies +7.5 - Win (2U)

1U - Pistons +8.5 - Win (1U)

1U - Suns +3 - Loss (1.1U)

1U - Warriors +8 - Win (1U)

Down 3.7U on the night.
Down 59.4U overall.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Just ran through TTD plays and ran the numbers for direct fades, starting with the -12.4 or whatever.

TTD Fade Record: 28-18-1
Units: +19U
Difference: 78.4U

Tomorrows play(s) will be faded.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Down 59.4U

4/7/12

Alright, so here's the deal. Today is the start of the fade tracker. How it's going to work: I will post the plays I think are the "smart" plays, then I will choose which of those to fade (which would typically be all). Those will be the plays. Tonight is unfortunate as there are two smart plays that I cannot bring myself to fade and I put them in a parlay. So here goes.

Smarter Plays

Charlotte +9
Pacers -2
76ers -5
Grizzlies -3
Blazers +5

Parlay

2U - 76ers -5 + Grizzlies -3 (+236

Grizzlies/Mavs - Mavs are 3-7 in the month of March on the road and are coming off a home loss to the Blazers. Two of those road losses were to OKC and Miami, two teams which Memphis has just beaten on the road in the last week. At full strength, Memphis is an incredibly strong squad. These two teams have split home court wins this season, both beating the other by double digits. With Memphis in stride and a game ahead of the Mavs, I think the Mavs fail on the road tonight.

Orlando/Philly - Just read Turkoglu is out tonight as well as Anderson. Combine that with the drama behind the scenes in Orlando and Philly looking to get back on track after their horrible performance against Toronto, and Philly wins this by DD. Call it square all you want.

Fade Plays (these have been faded already)

Atlanta -9 (down to 8.5 now)
Boston +2
Milwaukee -5

Assuming 2U for all plays. Not actually betting these fade plays tonight (last day of hockey), but the parlay is in play.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

[therushishere]

Instead of losing money why dont you tail a few cappers who know what theyre doing and try to pick up bits of knowledge and slowly start making picks on your own as you learn...

[H1Cypher]

I like what you are doing here Judge. Keep the picks coming. Just don't bet too much money on your own picks sir. But don't feel discouraged... a good fader is as good as a good capper if not better. Just don't feel discouraged and don't bet on your own picks =). But definitely don't stop picking. God I wish I was fading, but with a bigger sample size- I yet may be.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Instead of losing money why dont you tail a few cappers who know what theyre doing and try to pick up bits of knowledge and slowly start making picks on your own as you learn...

I may be relatively new to the betting scene, but 4 months of daily research has given me quite a bit of information. I've been looking at multiple threads on this site daily, been using sportschatplace.com as a resource for information, and have just recently been looking at covers.com as well. Ask any capper on this site, particularly for NBA, and they'll tell you it's been a rocky up and down road. Nobody, with the exception of Billy has posted any solid +Units. Most of my negative units have come from ill-placed large plays, despite my subpar record. The good news is, as H1Cypher said, having a solid fader can be just as good as a solid tailer.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

The bad news is Philly blows utter horse c*ck and I will fade their sorry asses to eternity for blowing that 2H and costing me that parlay. The good news is my fade plays were 3-0! Funny thing is Boston and Atlanta took hold and maintained for their covers, whereas Milwaukee pulled an Orlando on the Blazers tonight.

Fade Record TTD - 31-18-1 (+25U)

That's a full 85U better than tailing.

More fades to come!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Man, I didn't expect it to be this hard, but looking at the games today I can find reasons why most of them could go either way. So I find myself in a situation where I really like this play, but I could certainly see the other team winning it. So which do I post as my pick and which as my fade? Ugh...

Anywho, the following plays I couldn't bring myself to fade, so feel free to do so at your own risk.

2U - Boston -4 - Philly has been playing like absolute sh*t lately, often times blowing things in the 2nd half. Philly has won both prior meetings and both were in Philly. Boston won't let the 76ers sweep them and encroach on their division lead. Boston's been playing well, and with the home floor should be able to dispose of their division rivals by 6-8.

2U - Boston/Philly -175.5 - I'm sure Philly's getting grilled for their defense as of late, allowing 95 PPG in their last 5. After losing to Orlando last night, they're going to want to try to lock things down. Boston doesn't want to lose this game, so they'll be doing the same. Look for Boston to take this one is an extremely low scoring affair to the tune of 86-79.

Adding more shortly.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

I think what I'm going to do is post my plays and my fades, then I'll bold the ones I'm actually going to bet on. I'll be keeping track of straight tail, straight fade, and actual plays. I'll also be placing the unit change since starting this just to the right of total units won/lost.

Tail - 18-32-1 - -68U (0)

Fade - 31-18-1 - +25U (0)

Actual - 18-29-1 -61.4U (0)

All games are 1-unit plays tonight.

Tails

Cleveland +7.5
San Antonio -10
Houston -3.5

Fades

Nets -7.5
Utah +10
Sacramento +3.5

BOL everyone!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Boston killed Philly as expected, but a 61-point 3Q after an 86-point 1H was not expected. Lost the under by 6.5 points. Cleveland came through and the Jazz/Spurs pushed it. Houston came through for tailers, but I didn't play it.

4/8/12 Results

Tail - 3-1-1 - +1.8U
Picks - 2-1-1 - +0.8U
Fade - 1-3-1 - -1.8U

TTD

Tail - 21-33-2 - -66.2U (+1.8U)

Fade - 32-21-2 - +23.2U (-1.8U)

Actual Plays - 20-30-2 - -60.6U (+0.8U)

Looking forward to tonight!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

4/9/12

Continuing the new tracking method tonight with a number of plays.

2U - Phoenix -3 - The Suns have been playing solid ball as of late, going 4-1 in their last 5. They're only a game back from Denver for the 8th seed in the West and they've been playing like they want in. The injury-plagued Wolves however have lost 6 of their last 7, with their only win being against the league-worst Bobcats. They've all but lost hope for a shot at the playoffs with this recent slump, and may be out Ridnour tonight. It may not be a blowout, but Phoenix should get a comfortable win tonight.

All other plays are 1-unit bets.

Tails

Spurs -1
Golden State +8.5
Houston +3.5

Fades

Utah +1
Denver -8.5
Portland -3.5

May have another play later today. BOL everyone!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Added: 2U - Phoenix TT O106 - Wasn't the play I was thinking of adding, but something tells me this is a solid bet. Phoenix has score 106+ in 3 of their last 4 games, while Minnesota has allowed an average of 107 over their last 5 games. I think the rested Suns and their quality bench take advantage of the Wolves' poor defense and put 108+ on the board.

[Judgejoebrwn]

Oh what the hell, I'll add it now.

Added: 2U - Memphis -4 - I don't see a dangerous team like the Grizzlies letting the Clippers sweep them this year, especially with the Clippers only being ~2 games ahead. The last time these two met was just two weeks ago in LA, with the Grizzlies getting pounded. They have to want revenge. The only games the Clippers have won on the road in their recent surge were the Mavericks that just had a horrid off-night and the Kings who are a subpar team compared to Memphis. Memphis hasn't won a game by less than 4 since March 11th in Denver and since then have pulled off huge road wins against OKC, Miami, Milwaukee, and the Lakers. Given home court advantage and the revenge angle, I say they take this one by 8 (102-94).

[Judgejoebrwn]

Rock on. Solid night tonight overall.

4/9/12 Results

2U - Phoenix -3 - Win (2U)
2U - Phoenix TT +106 - Win (2U)
2U - Memphis -4 - Win (2U)
1U - Utah +1 - Win (1U)
1U - Golden State +8.5 - Loss (1.1U)
1U - Portland -3.5 - Loss (1.1U)

Also cashed a 1U +420 M/L Parlay, but I didn't post it so I won't count it officially.

Tail - 4-2-0 - +4.8U
Picks - 4-2-0 - +4.8U
Fade - 2-4-0 - -5.7U

TTD

Tail - 25-35-2 - -61.4 (+6.6U)

Fade - 34-25-2 - +17.5U (-7.5U)

Plays - 24-32-2 - -55.8U (+5.6U)

My apologies to those fading like mad.

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

4/10/12

All plays are 1U bets unless otherwise specified.

Tails

2U - Cleveland -6
Bulls -9
Nets +5.5
Heat/Celtics U183.5
Sacramento +9
Magic -4.5

Fades

2U - Charlotte +6
Knicks +9
76ers -5.5
Heat/Celtics O183.5
Mavs -9
Wizards +4.5

BOL tonight all!

-Judge

[Judgejoebrwn]

Added: 2U - M/L Parlay - Heat/Cavs/Bulls/Mavs (+180)

[Judgejoebrwn]

Way to fail, Miami. Allowing 90 PPG last 5 and last 10, yet allow the Celtics to shoot 60% from the field and put 110+ on ya. At home, no less. Just sad.

Can't really work the parlay into the fade, so it'll just be listed as a loss in my plays and tail.