[innovation]

I don't even have the knicks favored.

What u guys thinking. I have nets -1.2 to
-3.4. Depending what value you give Knicks home court advantage.

Why do I see such high % of people on Knicks ml?

I'm baffled

[LeagueCapper]

Noone more desperate for a win then the kNicks

[STAY STRONG]

Take the Nets if you like monies.

[demens]

Something is horrifically wrong with your capping if you have the Nets favorite in this game.

[innovation]

That's why I am 15-7 this year on su plays.

[wguan2]

this is about right. knicks -6.7 quantitatively not taking into acct b2b2b. but teams have showed a huge trend this year with the three gamers. first game up in the air, second loss, third win. this line will close at exactly 6 probably. i dont think the knicks necessarily cover but i think they definitely get the win here. home crowd. coach on hot seat. nj shooting lights out vs minne yesterday. morrow throwing up 42. just not seeing nj doing it again here. bol

[demens]

whoa, 15-7. you should move to Vegas and go pro.

[wguan2]

15-7 su doesn't mean much btw. anyone can be 15-7 su if they're just picking favorites with awful MLs

[innovation]

I have yet to bet a favorite money line straight up. I have hit 10 ml dogs since sunday. I am not here to impress anyone or get a huge following if I wanted that i would act like Demens and put naked ladies in my avatar and think I'm the shit. The other posters who contribute and not bash is what I like. Bouncing opinions off each other is why I come to forums. I am not changing what I have done for 2 decades.

[demens]

i'm not bashing, and you should take my opinion seriously. I will repeat it again, if you capped this game with Nets as favorites then something is seriously wrong with your formulas and or methods. Result of this game is irrelevant and so is your record.

[innovation]

Ok Demens you don't cash my tickets so I am not bothered that you and many disagree with how my line looks compared to Vegas. It has proven me well over the years to pick out discrepancies when Vegas is out of line

I didn't say I was playing nets just wondering why Vegas is penalizing the Knicks ml. Usually it's for a reason.

[innovation]

If something is wrong with my method it's that I don't follow the masses that Vegas lives off of. Good luck and if you have useful information to contribute then more power to you.

[demens]

So what you're saying is that Vegas put out a line that is over 7 points off what it should be. Or am i misunderstanding it.

[GoBlue77]

nets favored "in this spot"...wow, too bad you don't do the lines.

[cleaveland]

If the Nets play like they did at the 76ers earlier this year the Knicks don't stand a chance. However, I think that was a once in a season event. But, the Knicks aren't in the 76ers class and they should be tired and in low spirits.

My conclusion is that IF the Nets bring their A game and that's a big if for such a bad team, this game should be a pick 'em more or less. I think we all know that bad teams bring their A game probably less than half the time. Tough call imho.

[innovation]

Demens no Vegas is better than anyone. I give my own lines to keep a consistent value for each team all year and I don't change the way I formulate it. More often than not my lines are very close to Vegas I cap each game and if some are tremendously off I look for reasons to support or fade Vegas

This is how I find lines that Vegas sells as believable.

If the Knicks were favored by say 3 a lot of sharps would jump on nets but by installing a high line in a way you can sell the public that it's safe to parlay Knicks ml.

[demens]

Demens no Vegas is better than anyone. I give my own lines to keep a consistent value for each team all year and I don't change the way I formulate it. More often than not my lines are very close to Vegas I cap each game and if some are tremendously off I look for reasons to support or fade Vegas

This is how I find lines that Vegas sells as believable.

If the Knicks were favored by say 3 a lot of sharps would jump on nets but by installing a high line in a way you can sell the public that it's safe to parlay Knicks ml.

I just dont understand how you could possibly come up with a line that has Nets as favorites. Especially if you say most of your lines are close to what Vegas puts out, how can you be so far off on this game.

[cleaveland]

Demens no Vegas is better than anyone. I give my own lines to keep a consistent value for each team all year and I don't change the way I formulate it. More often than not my lines are very close to Vegas I cap each game and if some are tremendously off I look for reasons to support or fade Vegas

This is how I find lines that Vegas sells as believable.

If the Knicks were favored by say 3 a lot of sharps would jump on nets but by installing a high line in a way you can sell the public that it's safe to parlay Knicks ml.

I have come to that exact same conclusion. Also, there's been line movement in Vegas on this game in the last few minutes. All the books I was looking at had the game at -6 and moved it to -6.5 to -7. I've found that some times the books will put what seems to be "fake steam" on a game like this to get steam chasers to bet on a line Vegas knows has a low probability of hitting. Do you think that could be a correct theory?

[innovation]

Last night I had Philly -2 for my line and played Miami

I also had Dallas -0.4 and played pavers ml


I look for reasons as why Vegas is inflating each line and try to cap a reason to justify it.


Usually when I am this far off Vegas is right. Thats why I made this thread to get feedback. Knicks have won 4 of last five su vs nets and home and are playing 3rd straight night. I see reasons to back nj just don't like that books were so generous.

[innovation]

Cleveland yes it happens all the time the books are the master of manipulation.

They keep those following steam and reverse line movement on their toes. I get caught all the time with tricks the books pull

[hangtime]

you have the nets favored against knicks at home???

[cleaveland]

Cleveland yes it happens all the time the books are the master of manipulation.

They keep those following steam and reverse line movement on their toes. I get caught all the time with tricks the books pull

I don't know how many times I've backed off a bet I was sure about because the number looked too low or too high. Sometimes I think there are people with like 200 IQs setting all this stuff up, it really is masterful, far more so than most people can comprehend.

[innovation]

Cleveland in all my years betting when I feel really uneasy in my stomach about a bet it usually is a winner. When I feel very certain to the point I would lay lumber it often is to good to be true. People do t realize the books already know the reaction a certain line will have on ones physcogical reasoning.

[cleaveland]

Cleveland in all my years betting when I feel really uneasy in my stomach about a bet it usually is a winner. When I feel very certain to the point I would lay lumber it often is to good to be true. People do t realize the books already know the reaction a certain line will have on ones physcogical reasoning.

That's just the beginning of what I'm talking about. I'm even talking about the schedules themselves. Take this game for example, the Knicks preceded this game by a nationally televised game at home, then a nationally televised game at Boston, now they get this get game and let's not forget that there's "bragging rights" associated with it so there may be extra motivation for a Nets team that wants bragging rights and sees the Knicks in a moment of weakness and like a predator is ready to strike (maybe). The schedule makers may have foreseen that and set this up knowing that the Knicks would be firmly in the public's mind after watching them play back to back on national TV thus possibly increasing the money bet on the Knicks (because they're gonna think the Nets are much worse than Chicago and Boston) and so on. However, the public won't be thinking about the value of bragging rights and how that may give the Nets extra motivation, maybe.

I'm saying the planning may go further than the odds to the schedule and don't forget what Donaghy said about the refs favoring teams and how refs basically told by the league which teams to favor sometimes and so on. This is the kind of stuff I'm talking about.

[innovation]

Good stuff and looking ahead in the schedule is smart you don't wanna catch a Milwaukee team thinking about playing the bulls when all they have to do is beat the pistons.

[KingJD31]

they just covered against the bulls adn the celtics and you have the nets favored..........are you handicap?

[cleaveland]

Good stuff and looking ahead in the schedule is smart you don't wanna catch a Milwaukee team thinking about playing the bulls when all they have to do is beat the pistons.

Speaking of line games, I checked this game on Betcris and they have a ML of Celtics -290, that's what I call a "sale price", psychologically it's just under -300 like odd cent pricing where you sell something for 99 cents rather than a dollar. To it means they want people's money on the Knicks. I'd rather take the points because the Knicks are due and motivated and the Nets often aren't too clutch.

BTW, the Knicks first half line is being offered at a "sale price" too at -3.5 -105 at Betcris I'll check the other online books too.

[theone78]

that dead knicks team is always over valued cause of that spear chuka carmello

[theone78]

chucker !

[cleaveland]

Here's one way to look at this: With the payout for the Nets ML at +240 or so, would it be harder for you to hit a two team parlay at -110 odds or would it be harder for the Nets to win this game?

I'd take the parlay myself. Anyone else?

[innovation]

Final plays for me heading to casino

Nets ml
Lakers ml
Timberwolves -1
Bucks ml

Nets are killing it beyond arch at 41% last 3 games and 36% overall. Both teams rank dead last in defending the 3 but giving possible tired legs on Knicks I am biting. The wise thing would be to catch the points but I am greedy.

As far as bucks they play well at home and bulls don't reall have another challenge until Boston because they pla cha and no on the road. More or less just thinking if they do lose a road trip it's to tonight or maybe Boston


Timber pups I like a lot Houston is very exposed in the paint and havnt shown they can fix it not bothered by small line as had Houston by -1.4 so I like it.


As far as lakers I know there road woes and time of arrival but they aren't going from sea elevation to altitude and jazz struggle when they can't score in the paint. Lakers bigs just do well va jazz and they own the jazz. I know I am a jazz homer.


Gl.

[4seasons]

Knicks have won 2 out of their last 13, while the Nets have won 6! Recently, the Nets only lost by 3 to Minny and 7 at Indy. Knicks only 3-8 ATS at home, and why do you think that is? Think folks want to bet New Jersey in New York on Saturday Night? I don't think so, not to mention that the Knicks do not play defense, and the coach's days are numbered. Will gladly take 6.5 against a team who just got up as high as they could to go to Boston to get a win, and wind up going home with another big L thanks to a weak 34 point 2nd half. Now you come home to play the stinking Nets, totally deflated, and @ only -275 will be lucky to win SU tonight. Not likely that these Knicks will win this game by at least 7 points.

NJ +6.5

[innovation]

Wells said Knicks have won 4 straight in series

Points are wise but I'm greedy

[BernardMadoff]

Bro whatever youre doing if its working for you dont change for anyone, Im sure you wont since its been working, gl.

[4seasons]