Pattycakes Playoff Picks (and game 82 of the regular season)

[farmhouse1]

Mmmm could be that without griffin most of the game it may have really hurt the clippers defensive schemes....

[Pattycakes0909]

Another play....

Memphis Grizzles +8 (bought hook) (1 Unit) - explanation in post before with teaser information.....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Memphis Grizzles ML (+270) (0.25 Units) - Small play, but feel that this is a positive EV situation....Grizz always have strong 2nd half's, and I believe they will be in this game and give themselves a chance

[Pattycakes0909]

Wow, 46 total for the Grizz.....Lost by one point again....three of the losses over the course of this short thread are by 1 point.....bummer....positives being that the Grizz ML, the + points, and the under in the teaser look great.....Grizz are a better 2nd half team usually

[Pattycakes0909]

Wow...didn't see this being available.....

Grizzles +6 2nd half....(1.25 units) - usually do not go over 1 unit a play, but cannot see them getting outscored by 6 this half....

[Pattycakes0909]

So as long as there is not 7 points in the last 18 seconds, we are looking great on the night!

[Pattycakes0909]

LOL, Durant's 4 pt play was sick!

[Pattycakes0909]

Live Bet going into OT

Grizz/Thunder Under 222 (0.5 Units)

[kainomac]

Ouch! Unlucky on the mem 1h unders, patty!

BOL with the rest!

[Pattycakes0909]

Update for today: 4-2-0, +1.0 Units.....1 bet still open (Memphis +12 and GSW +12.5, two team teaser for 1 unit)

Overall for this thread: 14-10-1, +1.1 Units....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

So after GSW only put up 41 in the 1st half....

So there was an interesting thing I noticed as I was doing my research for the Clips/Warriors game tonight....Pull up this excel document for reference that I created....

As you will see, this will show the last 2 seasons, of each game where these two teams met, regular season and the first playoff game this year (9 Games total).....The highlighted games were the games played at Staples Center..... As you will see, the Clippers have not had a difficult time putting up points when GSW comes to their home court....105 the other day was the lowest total they have put up in the last 5 matchups there.....

If you look closer, you will see that GSW seems to be alternating their scoring efforts, every other time they come to L.A.....1st game, 114, followed by 89....Then they came back and scored 115 (although lost), but then followed that game with only 98....1st game of playoffs they put up 109, and now we sit here tonight.....Is this any reason to believe GSW may have a difficult time getting over 100 tonight?

Thoughts are welcomed?

[Pattycakes0909]

Last play tonight.....

GSW -3.5 2nd half (1 Unit)- They just cannot lose by 22...My thought is even though the Warriors look slow tonight, they will come out better in the 3rd and be more competitive....I assume they will play their starters a bit longer than the Clippers, and I expect them to close this gap to 20 or under by the game ending.....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Overall Playoff Record - 14-12-1, (-0.9 Units)

1st play today:

2 Team, 4.5 point Teaser - Nets +9 and Wizards +10 (1 Unit)

[Pattycakes0909]

Hawks +8 (buy hook) (0.75 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

3 Team, 8 Point Teaser - Hawks +15.5, Nets +12.5, Wizards +13.5 (0.50 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

Nets +5 (buy hook) (1 Unit)

[akay47]

Anything on O/Us? I like the over in the Nets-Raps game. Got any leans?

[TyroneYiggums]

What are thoughts about these:

1) Parlay:
Indiana Pacers -350 for Game
Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls over 180½ for Game
Chicago Bulls -180 for 1st Half

2) 2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Atlanta Hawks +12 for Game
Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls over 176½ for Game

Also, placed this for tomorrow:

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Miami Heat -6 for Game
San Antonio Spurs -3 for Game

[Pattycakes0909]

I apologize I was not able to respond to these in time.....As for the Pacers ML, you just can't trust them right now, and I think -350 is just too much juice to pay on an unknown right now....As for the first parlay, I really only like the Bulls ML 1st half....I think there will be more defense in that game tonight, and I see it sticking around 180, possibly less.....for the second parley, I typically try and stay away from incorporating over/unders into my teasers, as the math behind it shows it is not as favorable as applying the teaser points to just one team's line....and for the 3rd parlay, I like it....I think that the Heat will win by 7-11 and the Spurs by 5-9

What are thoughts about these:

1) Parlay:
Indiana Pacers -350 for Game
Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls over 180½ for Game
Chicago Bulls -180 for 1st Half

2) 2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Atlanta Hawks +12 for Game
Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls over 176½ for Game

Also, placed this for tomorrow:

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Miami Heat -6 for Game
San Antonio Spurs -3 for Game

[Pattycakes0909]

Anything on O/Us? I like the over in the Nets-Raps game. Got any leans?

akay, no leans for any over/unders tonight....Might end up going under in the Bulls game, but need to do some research before tip before I pull any triggers

[TyroneYiggums]

No apology needed Patty. Thanks for the feedback.

[Pattycakes0909]

Yesterday, 1-2-1 (-0.3 Units), another close loss in the 3 team teaser (by a half point)....This brings my overall playoff record to 15-14-2 and -1.2 Units overall....We have had 4 losses by one point or less, so I do not feel horrible about being down a unit overall....This could easily be up a few units right now if we have a few bounces go our way....With that being said, this Playoff betting is a Marathon, not a sprint, and there is a long way to go....Overall, the goal will be to show a positive 15 Units after the conclusion of the NBA playoffs....

[Pattycakes0909]

Wednesday, April 23rd - First round of bets

1. Spurs/Mavericks Over 198 (1 Unit) - I expected these teams to score in game one, and the statistics show these teams score when they meet....I know teams step up the defense in the playoffs, hence the results of game one....I was suprised by the low score, but do not expect that to happen again in game 2....I am suprised they dropped this line by 8 points from Game 1 (O/U set at 206 in Gm. 1)....Coach Pop is the best at making game to game adjustments, and I fully expect the Spurs to come out better tonight....The Mavs are a good team and I expect them to be competitive....Not sure about the cover yet, but no blowouts....Either way, I expect this final score to get closer to 205-210....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

4 Team, 10 Point Teaser

Heat -0.5, Bobcats +20.5, Mavericks +18, Blazers +16 (0.9 Units) - The Mavs and Blazers are good teams, and I have watched many games this year. Stats show they should keep it close, and barring a "Warriors like Game 2 meltdown", I would be very surprised to see either lose by 15+. As for the Heat/Bobcats game, I see Charlotte playing well tonight and keeping it close like they did for 3 quarters in game 1, but the Heat are just too good at home, and have beat the Bobcats 17 straight times....don't see that changing tonight....I see the Heat winning outright, but not blowing the doors off the Bobcats and beating them by 21+....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Heat/Bobcats over 187 (0.75 Units) - My belief is the Heat should score between 103-107 tonight, possibly more if Jefferson is going to be playing below 100%....Bobcats should be able to score 84+....BOL

[TyroneYiggums]

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 for Game
Houston Rockets -1.5 for Game

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Dallas Mavericks +12½ for Game
Portland Trail Blazers +10½ for Game

Houston Rockets -3½ for 1st Half

Thoughts Patty?

[Pattycakes0909]

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 for Game
Houston Rockets -1.5 for Game

2T 4.5 PT +100 TP
Dallas Mavericks +12½ for Game
Portland Trail Blazers +10½ for Game

Houston Rockets -3½ for 1st Half

Thoughts Patty?

Just focusing on the teasers, I do not mind either bet, but if you do them both together, realize that both games have to hit inside your 9 pt. windows to overall come out ahead....I would suggest picking the one you feel is best and running with that one, but your call obviously....

With the Rockets 1st half, I personally have no opinion on it one way or the other....The Rockets are just 3-2-1 ATS in the first half for the last 6 home games against Portland, so no dominating streak there.... and I feel Portland matches up well with them....I could see them covering the 3.5 as easy as I could see them not covering it....Sorry for no help on this one

[Pattycakes0909]

2 more plays added to the one's above....

Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3 (0.75 Units) - Over the course of the last 7 meetings between the Heat and Bobcats in Miami, the Heat have covered a spread of 3 in the first quarter, going 5-2....and over the last 12 meetings overall, home or away, the Heat have covered the spread of 3 in the first quarter, going 8-4....Heat did not cover the 3 point spread last time out against the Bobcats, and the Heat have never not covered this spread back-to-back games against the Bobcats.....I am riding it....BOL

3 Team, 8 Point Teaser - Heat -2, Mavericks +16, Trailblazers +14.5 (0.9 Units) - Heat are 6-1 at home covering a 2 point spread against Bobcats over last 3 seasons at home, and I just see the other two games being competitive, tonight, and do not see blowouts occuring over 15+....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

5 total bets, 4.3 Units on the line so far for the evening, probably a few more to come.....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Adding - Bobcats +6 1st half (0.5 Units) - BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

2 more plays added to the one's above....

Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3 (0.75 Units) - Over the course of the last 7 meetings between the Heat and Bobcats in Miami, the Heat have covered a spread of 3 in the first quarter, going 5-2....and over the last 12 meetings overall, home or away, the Heat have covered the spread of 3 in the first quarter, going 8-4....Heat did not cover the 3 point spread last time out against the Bobcats, and the Heat have never not covered this spread back-to-back games against the Bobcats.....I am riding it....BOL

3 Team, 8 Point Teaser - Heat -2, Mavericks +16, Trailblazers +14.5 (0.9 Units) - Heat are 6-1 at home covering a 2 point spread against Bobcats over last 3 seasons at home, and I just see the other two games being competitive, tonight, and do not see blowouts occuring over 15+....BOL

Starting 1-0 tonight with that Heat 1st Qtr, here we go!!! have started with a loss the last few nights, so good to have this go the way it did....

[Pattycakes0909]

Adding

Mavericks +8 (0.75 Units) - BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Miami Heat -3 2nd Half (0.50 Units) - Heat's last 4 home games when they lead the Bobcats by 7 or more by half, they cover the 2nd half spread of 3 or more 4 times in a row....BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Heat -2 4th Qtr (0.25 Units)

[Pattycakes0909]

So far tonight 2-3-0, but +0.2 Units overall tonight.....Dallas up by 10 half way through the 3rd, so I am pretty sure my over and Dallas covering an 8 point spread are going to hit in about an hour....If Portland can not lose by 14+, all teasers are money, and we are looking at a +3.5 Unit night....