Pattycakes Playoff Picks (and game 82 of the regular season)

[Pattycakes0909]

So I have been posting on a few different threads here that were created by others (Ithinkiamgood/adrupert/etc.) with my NBA picks, and have had a few people ask me to just start my own NBA thread, instead of filling up others with my picks....With that said, here we go....

I do not see too much value in tonight's games, as it is hard to say who will show up till playoff time, but with that being said, I do have one play tonight that I like....

Nuggets (-390), Spurs (-420), and Wizards (-360) ML Parley = Risk 1 Unit to win 1.01 units....

BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

Also jumping on Wolves/Jazz 1st Qtr over 52

[Pattycakes0909]

NBA Playoffs, here we go.....

1. 10 Point teaser - 4 Team - Raptors +7, Warriors +17, Hawks +17.5, Grizzles +17

[Pattycakes0909]

Raptors 1st Quarter -1

[Pattycakes0909]

Nets/Raptors Under 193.5

[Pattycakes0909]

Raptors -2 1st Half.....

Going to be posting plays for each game I like about an hour before tip.....

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Nets/Raptors Under 193.5

Loving this under a lot.

[Pattycakes0909]

Toronto to cover the spreads above in the 1st Qtr is my favorite bet of the day.....I mean home court advantage, they are averaging 32 pts in the 1st qtr over the last 5 games, and Brooklyn is giving up 30 pts in the 1st qtr over the last 5 games.....and I do not see Brooklyn scoring more than 25 or 26 in the 1st

[Pattycakes0909]

Toronto ML (-155) .....all plays are 1 unit

[Pattycakes0909]

2 team, 5 pt. teaser - G.S. +12.5 and Over 207

[Pattycakes0909]

Over 105 2nd half G.S./Clips (-105)

[Pattycakes0909]

OKC over 98.5, half unit

[Pattycakes0909]

Pacers -7.5 for the game (1 unit), but Hawks +4.5 1st half (half unit)....ATL first halves lately have been $$$

[Pattycakes0909]

Playoff update : 4-3 so far, +0.3 Units....

Two open bets still going from earlier, probably try and find one more bet I like still

[Pattycakes0909]

Grizz/Thunder 1st Qtr under 49.5....only 1 of 4 meetings this year got over 42 in the first quarter, and expect the Thunder to come out strong defensively tonight....

[Pattycakes0909]

Playoff Update: 7-4-0, 5-4 on one unit plays, 2-0 on half unit plays....Overall +1.7 Units

[Pattycakes0909]

1st play for Sunday....Another 4 Team, 10 Pt Teaser

Heat win, Wizards +15, Blazers +15, Dallas +19.5

[Jarman]

Nice thread Pc! Thanks for taking the time to share. Any over/under plays you're feeling confident in today?

[Pattycakes0909]

I am doing some research this morning, and have already identified a few bets I love in the Spurs/Dallas game....will post them all at once, when I have finished looking at the other games too....have to do this all this morning as won't have much time to post later in the day.....BOL to all

[Pattycakes0909]

Additional plays to the teaser above.......

Spurs/Mavs Over 206 (1 Unit) -The totals for these two in their 4-game regular season match-up never ended up below 209, and averaged 215.5 total.....I expect both teams to be able to put up points in this game
Spurs Over 107.5 total (1 Unit) - The Spurs have not scored less than 109 points against Dallas this year, and are averaging 212.5 ppg against them this year....I do not expect this affair to be any different
Mavs +10 (0.5 Unit) - I believe the Mavs will keep this game close throughout, and will manage the Spurs runs. The reason for the half unit is because the Spurs are so good at making late game adjustments, and could see them squeaking out a couple garbage buckets at the end that could push the lead to double digits....just in case that happens, I only trust a half unit here, but do expect the Mavs to keep this closer than double digits.

Heat Over 99 (1 Unit) - In both home games for the Heat in this match-up in the regular season, they were able to score fairly easily against the Bobcats defense, putting up 99 and 124 points. I expect between game 1 at home in front of the fans, and the experience factor the Heat have over the Bobcats will allow a big game from the big 3, and good shooting from the role players around them....I do expect Charlotte to challenge the Heat throughout, but just don't have the fire power to stop all their scorers....I see the Heat finishing with between 104 and 110 today.

Wizards/Bulls Over 181 (0.5 Units) - Too much of the public is all over the Bulls and their "incredible" defense....I believe the Wizards match up well with the Bulls, and will be able to consistently score in the 90's in this series....With that being said, I expect this game to be close and come down to the final few minutes, with the final score ending up in the mid 90's for each squad....Therefore the over looks appealing to me. Only going with a half a unit because there is not a lot of Wizards playoff history to take in to account, so keeping this to a smaller play.

Houston/Portland 1st Qtr over 54 (0.5 Units) - Three of the four regular season match-ups between these teams hit 58 points or more in the 1st qtr, with the two games in Houston averaging 63 in the first....Both teams are great opening quarter scoring teams overall, with Houston averaging 28.5 in the 1st qtr at home, and Portland avergaing 26.0 in the 1st qtr on the road.....For these reasons, I feel a half unit on the 1st qtr over is valuable.

[Pattycakes0909]

Adding

Heat/Bobcats over 188 (1 Unit) - Both games in Miami this year have hit at least 197 and I think the Heat will be rolling, putting up some points tonight....I feel as long as the Bobcats can get to 85, which doesn't seem like much to ask, we should be able to cover the over.

BOL

[akay47]

Great thread Patty. Pretty weak that no one is tailing, love your explanations. Gonna tail all games cuz I've seen you do work in KP's thread.

Got anything on the Wiz-Bulls game (other than O/Us) or the Rockets-Blazers? Thanks bro, happy easter

[akay47]

Patty, my line is at 178.5 for the Bulls and Wiz… That's damn low!! What do you think

[Pattycakes0909]

Akay, sorry for no response yesterday, was not able to get to this until now....Would have been all over the over 178.5 for that game....I could only get it at 181 but that was just fine

[Pattycakes0909]

Playoff Record Update: 3-4-1 yesterday (-1.6 Units), which brings the overall playoff record to 10-8-1....And brings the overall +/- to +0.1 Units.....

Had a couple bad reads with the Spurs yesterday and the 1st Qtr over in the Rockets/Portland game, but other than that, everything went as expected.....Pushed on the Heat over 99, and missed that games total over by 1 pt, so just some unfortunate luck that we did not get there...With that being said, I am looking to rebound strong tonight....I will have some plays up before 4 PM tonight...BOL to all

[Pattycakes0909]

1st Play of Monday, another teaser, this time 3 team, 8 Pt.

Grizzles +15.5, Grizz/OKC under 198, Warriors +16 (1 Unit) - I think the Grizz will come out better defensively tonight, and try and set a stronger tone over game 1....I see this game ending up being close, ending in the low 90's a piece....As long as we can avoid OT, I feel confident with the under here (I normally try and avoid including over/unders with these, as the math shows better probability with using points towards one team's line....but in certain situations I do include them) And finally, I feel the Warriors will not get blown out tonight....although Blake Griffin only played 19 minutes in Game 1, and I am sure he won't get as many unfortunate calls in Game 2 which will allow him to play big minutes, and I do look for him to be dominant tonight.....Curry and Thompson also only shot 13-36 (36%) for 36 points together, and I look for them to be more on track for Game 2....which means I just cannot see them getting beat by 16+.....I really cannot see them losing by double digits.....

BOL

[Pattycakes0909]

2 Team, 4.5 Point Teaser -

Grizzles +12 and Warriors +12.5 (1 Unit) - Explanation above

[pupung]

Where did you get the 198 line for okc? What im seeing is 189.5

[Pattycakes0909]

The regular line is set at 190....It is apart of a 3 team, 8 point teaser....I teased the line up to 198 for the under

[Pattycakes0909]

So there was an interesting thing I noticed as I was doing my research for the Clips/Warriors game tonight....Pull up this excel document for reference that I created....

As you will see, this will show the last 2 seasons, of each game where these two teams met, regular season and the first playoff game this year (9 Games total).....The highlighted games were the games played at Staples Center..... As you will see, the Clippers have not had a difficult time putting up points when GSW comes to their home court....105 the other day was the lowest total they have put up in the last 5 matchups there.....

If you look closer, you will see that GSW seems to be alternating their scoring efforts, every other time they come to L.A.....1st game, 114, followed by 89....Then they came back and scored 115 (although lost), but then followed that game with only 98....1st game of playoffs they put up 109, and now we sit here tonight.....Is this any reason to believe GSW may have a difficult time getting over 100 tonight?

Thoughts are welcomed?

[Pattycakes0909]

Excel

Here is the excel sheet.....

[ethan1710]

^I really have no thoughts on it, it is an interesting statistic what I do know is I have to teasers with GSW +12 and under 216, so hopefully they can keep it close and low this time.

[akay47]

Patty, you have anything on the O/U's of tonight's games (teasers aside)

[Pattycakes0909]

Grizzles Under 45 1st half (1 Unit) - The last 4 games @ OKC, dating back to last years playoffs, Memphis has put up only 40, 34, 42, and 36 in the 1st half's....I am going to ride this streak and play the under....BOL

[akay47]

Tailing!