Leans for Thursday 3/5/09

[cap10]

CK;; i wouldn't be surprised to see both +9 and +10 cover ;; why; mavs will be playing on adrenalin caused by owner threat of possible players cuts and the melo thing in denver could knock denver off their game;; gl

[Smacksmiter]

Conversation on the phone last night with BigMoneyMan. He was saying how he has seen teams lose in ways that he has never seen before this year....This has been a very strange NBA season for sure since right before the All Star break through current.

My recommendation is that you drop the NBA and focus on college and baseball...there is no shame in looking at the facts and making a rational decision based on them...experimentation plans at this point could be a sign of desperation and/or chasing...neither of which would be a good plan at this point...but as usual, best of luck to you in whatever you decide to do.

[cocknocker]

Smacky,

I fade myself on a different book on every play over a dime anyway, dummy and I have indicated that more than once. I don't take too many outright losses. And secondly what would I look like taking advice froma guy wo lost 18K in a little over a week? You have very little if any money management skills. But of course you already know that the hard way. My recommendation to you is to keep your mouth shut and figure out a way to come up with the 4 dimes necessary to get paid when baseball season comes around.

[Dexter]

3/6 - Fri

simple analysis on fridays games. first, im going to back the jazz again catching the nuggets off a btb televised game on thur. utah has been on fire of late, and should beat up the nuggets in this spot. projected line of -8.

-jazz (big)
_____________
the cavs have been playing the celts close in games at boston, having covered 5 of the last 6 but losing all 6 su. those games were all with KG - no garnett, leaves the door open for the cavs to flex their muscle and get some momentum for the inevitable eastern conf finals.

-cavs

[nonsense48]

Booked:
den-7
port/den under 199.5
2 team parlay for the same

[G's pks]

I am not sure but another filter that I found that maybe interesting. hajune who has done quite well mentioned not betting wrote favs when-6 or more late in the season. So maybe home dogs in the +6 to 9 area might even be a better value... More likely these larger spreads would occur in CBB? Not sure on that...

I think instead of how Lt profits mentioned it..which I am adding to my notes... You still will have to find value in the plays themselves rather than taking and adding/substracting 3 points just based on the spread. Also you would have to believe your team in the dogs case had a chance to keep the game close.. Maybe previous head to heads...


Maybe some of the questions could be...

How often have these teams met in last year and were the games all within the current spread.

Is one of the teams hot/cold...

Even teams involved in games of importance... playoffs, whatever..

Home vs road records... obviously it could be endless..

So I am going to start with about 10-20 factors...not exactly sure yet which ones and see as an experiment if there is any edge.

Blaze Haze was doing something right... He found something... The system somehow is hidden in his picks... I am going to see if it is just a value thing based on adding the three or substracting the 3...or1,2, or 3..

Maybe someone else can figure out his system..

Well i just got the word from LT Profits on the whole 3 point buying thing we're alking about today. He suggets that the correct use of the 3 point buy is to find it at -170 and then use it on the following: Underdogs of +5 to +8, and on favorites in the -8 to -10 range. So starting tomorrow G's Pks, we will put this method into use for the next couple of weeks and see how it fares! Obviously I will hae to cut down on the amounts of money I wager on games, and I will make my new target/objective to bring in half dimes instead of going for a dime off of 1700. So I will shorten my wagers to $850 to make $500.00 during this experiment!

[ASH0479]

NO -5.5 (1pt buy)

Dallas beat San Antonio 107-102 as a 3pt. home favorite Wednesday. On the road this season, the Mavs are averaging 97.3 ppg while allowing 99.0, and is in an 0-4 SU and ATS. losing all four by seven points or more.
The SU winner has coverer ATS in each of the Mavs last 10 as a visitor and 20 of their last 21 on the road.

New Orleans has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), but this is only the second time this season these teams have met, with NO posting a 104-97 road win as a 4½-pt fav in January.
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to NO
The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine.
The home team is on a 7-3 ATS run.

I like NO here....take a look what Dallas did last time they had a home win and went on the road....lost outright to OKC without Durant and Green....they played a tough game last night and now on the road against a rested NO team....They have issues with Paul everytime they play...I see NO running away with it late in the game

[repski]

wow...this stock market sucks...now wonder so many players are playing with their heads up their ass.....they're probably losing a lot of $$

[G's pks]

Great post...but if you feel it is a break even prop. that means it is not going to hurt. I think this is a situation if someone worked on it with games of value the buying of 1,2, or 3 points on a few bets a week could be beneficial. Not saying all games qualify, or just do it because it falls in an exact pointspread.

The cases would be ones which the spread seems to be inproperly inflated, or deflated... and the 3 pts showing some value if added.

I think the Morrison system and Blaze found something... The Morrison system is a chase system but seems to work.

Blaze I do not believe was working a chase system, but went by systems a,b,c. I have been doing a little research on him and found out this is not the first time he has been successful capping.

Found him leading several weeks at covers back in 06 handicapping contest. Some claim he is not a tout... But maybe he was setting this up the whole time...

Either way these systems were successful and they found some value in buying points... Now the hard part...trying to find the games as Blaze did to apply the points to! G.

G's Pks,

I was following BlazeHaze's picks and I have also followed Morrison. Do not be fooled by the higher win-rates of both Blaze and Morrison. Obviously when you buy 3-points you are going to hit at a higher clip. Hitting at 70% with a 3-point buy (paying -170) is the same thing as hitting at 60% (paying -110). For instance, I think Morrison A-Bets are hitting at around 75% this season with a 3-point buy.. without the 3-points they are hitting at around 65%.. If you had started a system at the beginning of this season that said to only play Morrison A-Bets, you would be profiting the same whether or not you buy the points (HOWEVER, with regards to overall series, there would have been certain "series" losses had you not bought the 3-points every game as directed, which obviously would have resulted in huge losses to your roll.. so in terms of chase systems, you must play them right or not play them at all to even consider the possibility of being profitable.. to me the risk:reward is not there when I can just hit 60% paying -110 or better every time). Same thing with Blaze.. he is hitting around 72% with his 3-point buys, however, if you were to play his picks without any points, you'd be hitting around 61-62%. In the end, it is of my humble opinion that point-buys are a break-even proposition (with the exception of buying hooks to get down to even numbers.. 2.5 to 2, 4.5 to 4, etc..)

[repski]

I like NO here....take a look what Dallas did last time they had a home win and went on the road....lost outright to OKC without Durant and Green....they played a tough game last night and now on the road against a rested NO team....They have issues with Paul everytime they play...I see NO running away with it late in the game

I love NO too..but one thing torecognize is these books are getting very sharp...they know these trends and seem to be inflating the line to compensate...thus the 3 pt fade on dawgs could work out

[TrafficUB]

you must define garbage differently than I do. Dallas didn't look like garbage when they beat San Antone tonight.

1. Their lucky that Tony Parker didn't take over
2. It was their home game...
3. Last time they we're b2b they lost to OKC without DURANT
4. Dallas is inconsistent

[LT Profits]

Just to clarify, I wouldn't BLINDLY buy the 3 points on every game in those spread ranges. I would handicap the games first, and then IF they fall inside those spread ranges, then buying the 3 points has been +EV in the ranges I specified.

One of the reasons I mention this is that I am on Denver -6 (I bet it early) tonight, so I don't care that Portland falls inside the range.

[Dexter]

1. Their lucky that Tony Parker didn't take over
2. It was their home game...
3. Last time they we're b2b they lost to OKC without DURANT
4. Dallas is inconsistent

now that has a lot to do with dal being looked at as "garbage" by some! lol

[TrafficUB]

and manu didn't even play

[cocknocker]

Denver-6 is the correct play on the night, LT Profits. They are more than due for a big win. Thanks for clarifying that. Of course a game must be capped though and then the determination can be made bsed upon the factors of the handicapping. I think that the high altitude will make for some second half issues for Portland tonight as they are on a back end of a back to back. Dallas is a puzzle though as they have a terrible knack of playing up to or down to the level of competition. With their owner blasting them out on national television, I think that they will give a more concerted effort, but of course Mark Cuban doesn't play basketball for the Mavs. But Dallas is 1-4 ats and 0-5 straight up in games in New Orleans. I think the Hornets will win this game, and it is just a matter of by how much, so with that in mind i simply took the chalk and reduced it by a half point to get under the key number of 6, which is cool because they have beaten the Mavs by an average of 11 points per game in those 5 wins.

[cocknocker]

But all in all, G's Pks, thank you for bringing this type of thing to the board. At least you're not like Smacky who brings nothing but negativity and no good concepts (as usual). This is the kind of thing the board needs. I like the recent efforts and results of research provided by you, Jimbo42, solobass and others that I have foolhardedly forgotten to mention. What we need is the input of all to strengthen the board and help each other in an effort to beat the books.

[nonsense48]

just because a team owner gets pissed and threatens to fire everyone that isn't producing doesn't make that team instantly better in the case of dallas. portland on a b/b in mile high denver will be handled by denver,mello,and billips convincingly tonite

[Ludovike]

sorry non dallas is playing in new orleans

[G's pks]

Glad you clarified that! I did not want anyone thinking that just buying points would win any game... I would think actually just the opposite, being extremely selective! Thanks G.

Just to clarify, I wouldn't BLINDLY buy the 3 points on every game in those spread ranges. I would handicap the games first, and then IF they fall inside those spread ranges, then buying the 3 points has been +EV in the ranges I specified.

One of the reasons I mention this is that I am on Denver -6 (I bet it early) tonight, so I don't care that Portland falls inside the range.

[nonsense48]

dallas was fortunate to catch the spurs on a flat nite but on a b/b playing the hornets they might just have to come back to earth. no worries as it's a no play for me anyway.

[nonsense48]

sorry non dallas is playing in new orleans

yeah lud i got busy in the middle of typing and forgot where i left off and just went back to typing. i knew that and fixed it.

[G's pks]

Thanks Ck... Now will test out for a while...by handicapping, picking best values and will see with results... Not confident enough to start a thread on this yet... But who knows...thanks again.. Like you said just trying to bring something to the table that may work once in a while.

But all in all, G's Pks, thank you for bringing this type of thing to the board. At least you're not like Smacky who brings nothing but negativity and no good concepts (as usual). This is the kind of thing the board needs. I like the recent efforts and results of research provided by you, Jimbo42, solobass and others that I have foolhardedly forgotten to mention. What we need is the input of all to strengthen the board and help each other in an effort to beat the books.

[nonsense48]

this last week or 10 days have been rough on most nba and cbb gamblers. we need to just step back and take a deep breath and it'll pass just as it always does. all of us will get back on a winning track. don't allow this to shake you. hopefully most if not all of us allow for times like this bankroll-wise. i know i do. good luck everyone.

[BrandonLaz]

Final booked plays in order from largest wager to smallest wager.

New Orleans -6.5
Denver -7
Portland vs Denver u199.5
Arizona -4.5
Oregon State +18.5

[cocknocker]

Alls that I did was to start making fun wagers, non. I haven't made a heavy wager in a minute. After talking with BigMoney I think that the quarter strategy is going to pay big dividends. The types of teams that I will be wagering on don't lose three straight quarters. But too many teams are blowing their leads late in games these days

[Dexter]

3/6 - Fri

simple analysis on fridays games. first, im going to back the jazz again catching the nuggets off a btb televised game on thur. utah has been on fire of late, and should beat up the nuggets in this spot. projected line of -8.

-jazz (big)
_____________
the cavs have been playing the celts close in games at boston, having covered 5 of the last 6 but losing all 6 su. those games were all with KG - no garnett, leaves the door open for the cavs to flex their muscle and get some momentum for the inevitable eastern conf finals. projected line of +3.

-cavs

_______________
the raptors have lost 3 straight tough road games and now come back home to face a heat team that they have owned in canada (3-1 ats the last 4 - all 4 su wins by an avg of 21ppg). projected line of -4.

-raptors
_______________
the pistons are red hot without allen iverson, and i will simply fade one of the worst road ats teams in the league on the opposite coast. projected line of -8.

pistons (big)
_______________
the spurs are back home off a su loss in dal - the wizards come in having to face a spurs team that has owned them texas - 4-1 the last 5 ats winning by an avg margin of 17ppg. projected line of -13.5

spurs (big)
______________

**all big plays just 2x due to the cold stretch.

[Dexter]

yeah ck - G's picks is a good guy. ive chatted with him in the past and invited him to come join us

[Jimbo42]

Having a real tough time with this Denver/ Portland game. I think Denver is the play no doubt..I wouldn't play Port fo sho. Just not sure if I can pull the trigger. Here is some news from Denver you may not be aware of... The mantra for the Nuggs all season has been to be more focused, disciplined, professional so when Melo wouldn't come out of the game, Karl and Melo sat down and came up with the one game susp. No hard feelings at all. Melo pledged to the press to "run hard to the bench" the next time Karl calls for a sub. Melo is totally being blamed by the press here for the loss in Detroit. I think Denver and Melo comes out strong tonight. This game is for the NW division lead. The problem I'm having is that I LOVE to play good teams while their stock is low.. but I usually wait until i can see the uptick. You know when a good shooter misses 10 jumpers in a row and pops one.. now its nothin but net for the rest of the game... Same with teams. Nuggs have lost 5 of the last 7. Melo is 12-of41 in last two games (.292). Once they win (hit that jumper) I'm so on them! Having said all that Nuggs probably win going away.. but may sit this one out and root for the SU win so I can pound em in the next game vs. Utah who may be just starting a downswing. What to do.... What to do....
Nuggets first half may be an option. Full game line is -7. Half is -4. Linesmakers trying to discourage that half play a little. Haven't locked anything down yet still thinking
GL

[repski]

any HT picks tonight....

[repski]

Providence +10.5

I like the fact that Villanova comes off such a huge win over Notre Dame on the road. Providence did take 'Nova to the wire earlier this year losing 91-94. In fact, in that game, Nova was up at the half 49-34 only to see that lead fall as Providence made a comeback. If Nova was coming off a loss to Notre Dame, I wouldn't be on this. But, Nova comes off a big 17 point win, after the outright loss to Georgetown at home. GTown had 25 turnovers and still managed to win the game!! I know it is senior night, but coming off such a big win over Notre Dame, I think this is a wash. Providence has gained confidence and is playing better defeating Pittsburgh and their #1 ranking 81-73 at home and following it up by not having a let down and defeating Rutgers on the road sweeping them on the season. I think Providence can stay under the number here.

Providence is 9-4 ATS as underdogs of 7 to 12 points
small bet on the Friars

[shoebox]

Just got back to my hotel wow I am fade material, my capping skills are trash.............

[repski]

Indiana St. +4.5
Drake started the regular season 13-3, but after dropping 10 of their last 14 games. They now have to work their way up from 8/9 game where a suddenly hot Indiana State awaits them. Drake is falling apart because they can’t score anymore. Give them credit for changing up their defense in the wake of this losing skid… But their poor shooting and it will cost them today.
ISU started the season bad, but somehow has won six of their last seven and losing by just six to Wichita State in their only loss during this run.
ISU has changed lineups several times this year, but it appears they have finally settled on one that’s, giving this team new life at just the right time. The last time these two played in Indiana where ISU limited Drake to just 34% shooting in a 69-57 rout.
ISU has covered six of their last seven, four straight against teams with winning records and their last five as an underdog.
Drake, meanwhile, has failed to cover just one of their last five as a small favorite1 of their previous five following an ATS win and 0 for 5 their last five vs. teams with a SU losing record.
Two teams headed in opposite directions.

[Dana4U]

I like the new avatar Repski. What's your thoughts on the tonight? Last night was brutual at 0-4 ... as you know!

[Dexter]

Just got back to my hotel wow I am fade material, my capping skills are trash.............

i hear that - but for some reason, i keep waking up each day ready to plug away.

ive never been told i dont have lots of gamble in me

[Killer Chihuahua]

Providence +10.5

I like the fact that Villanova comes off such a huge win over Notre Dame on the road. Providence did take 'Nova to the wire earlier this year losing 91-94. In fact, in that game, Nova was up at the half 49-34 only to see that lead fall as Providence made a comeback. If Nova was coming off a loss to Notre Dame, I wouldn't be on this. But, Nova comes off a big 17 point win, after the outright loss to Georgetown at home. GTown had 25 turnovers and still managed to win the game!! I know it is senior night, but coming off such a big win over Notre Dame, I think this is a wash. Providence has gained confidence and is playing better defeating Pittsburgh and their #1 ranking 81-73 at home and following it up by not having a let down and defeating Rutgers on the road sweeping them on the season. I think Providence can stay under the number here.

Providence is 9-4 ATS as underdogs of 7 to 12 points
small bet on the Friars

Thanks Repski......errr Indian Cowboy