Leans for Thursday 3/5/09

[G's pks]

Just a few that would have swung with point buying in either direction...
buying 3 in the following games would have won with either team or a push in the Celtics/nets game...

wash/Okl, Bos/NJ, Hous/Utah

[G's pks]

Just a thought after seeing blazehaze hitting at a very, very high percent before being banned for selling picks that one of his keys was point buying. Thought it might be something this thread should be taking into strong consideration when you feel unders and close games... GL G.

[cocknocker]

Now i can answer your question G's picks. I do beleive in buying points but the most that i will work with outside of a Morrison pick is a point or a hook. Buying 2 points costs a whole lot of cheddar like -170 on Greek, which means that I would have to put up $1700 just to make a dime. One point is -130 which is $1300 to get a dime, which I feel a lot more comfortable with. See when buying points like that, one loss will tear a patch out of your account. Playing moneylines is the way to go if long term profits at a much slower rate is the way you want to go. Now with JM plays i do play those with 3 points on a book that charges -170 for such a play. but those aren't everyday plays. Playing games everyday at -170 could really hurt you in the long run because of the vigorish involved. In certain circumstances it is alright though. I know that if i were to play all games at -170, I would have to up my fade account wagers for sure! Man that would sting if you lost even 5 in a week at -170. It cuts down your margin for error, though. Because essentially you are buying 2 possessions in an NBA game.

[repski]

Posted this morning on Weds. thread...copy/pasted here


Interesting thread guys... But I notice a ton of the picks were 0-3 0-4.... Nice job to the guy that predicted the under in the Hous. game. But I think it was same person who said Kentucky a 17 pt. favorite would kill Georgia and they lost outright with a -2500 Ml!

Just wanted to drop in and say looks like to many people are just saying yeah that looks good and tagging along... I know it is easy to say that when most of you lost on Celtics, Spurs, Atl. Utah.

But I saw several agreeing on the under with some strong supporting stats on the Hous game... That a few of you would have thought that the Utah/Hous game might be a good game to take the points... Also buying points seemed to be one of the keys to now banned Blazehazes success...

Just wondering how many of you are buying points in any of your games... I loved the celtics yesterday knowing they have owned the Nets lately, but went ML, winning but it was still tight... When the line first came out for me it was 5 1/2, almost bought 3 points which would have given me much better odds but line quickly moved to 6, than 7.... So I went ML...

Any thoughts in here on promoting the buying of 2 to 3 points?
__________________

sometimes we have bad days dude.....those picks were mine..
the day before I did VERY well.....another Monday morning Q'back...good luck buying 3 pts..

[repski]

Just a few that would have swung with point buying in either direction...
buying 3 in the following games would have won with either team or a push in the Celtics/nets game...

wash/Okl, Bos/NJ, Hous/Utah

I bought the Utah down a pt....to get under the "key number" of 8 to 7.5..and still lost....sometimes you have the right side but the books are sharp....I'd rather not lose the HUGE vig...in the long run unless you were to do alot of "hedging"it can't be profitable

[G's pks]

Repski I did mention in my post easy to say now... The point of my post was point buying and its success in blazehaze's system... It was not meant as an insult to you.

In fact it was a compliment that you did the research on the Hous/Utah game! The point with the Ken. game was you just mentioned they would "take Georgia to the woodshed." But never put any supporting stats up... Unless you posted later and I missed.

But back on topic...

CK...great response... I agree Ml...does produce slower results and for me less picks overall. I like to play the Ml quite a bit. But for me it works because I do not pick so many games. In fact I have only picked 18 games myself since the end of January... Gone 12-6 against the spread with my thread G's one pks.

I agree it can be costly at -170 for 3 points, but can be better to take a point or two, total at -170 3pts, then a much higher Ml. Just wondering if you guys do buy points when you have handicapped very close games or unders on a regular basis... GL...G.

sometimes we have bad days dude.....those picks were mine..
the day before I did VERY well.....another Monday morning Q'back...good luck buying 3 pts..

[cocknocker]

Betting-170 means a change in how a person wagers. The amounts of the wagers must be lessened or sacrificed in order to have a higher winning percentage. But by all means, please don't let LT Profits see this. He will rip you a new one over buying points versus Kelly. His theory words is if you believ a team is going to win take the moneyline or give up the points. If you don't believe a team is going to win then take the dog.

[G's pks]

Been watching the morrison picks and I notice buying three points has come into play quite a bit... Especially with the weaker teams like Toronto who have gone to "C" bets in the Morrrison system the last two times out.

My point being I am starting to notice more and more, the systems such as Morrison and Blazehaze that are very successful are buying points.

I bought the Utah down a pt....to get under the "key number" of 8 to 7.5..and still lost....sometimes you have the right side but the books are sharp....I'd rather not lose the HUGE vig...in the long run unless you were to do alot of "hedging"it can't be profitable

[G's pks]

Ck... great call again... It does make me much more conservative with my bets and also less bets. This is exactly what I want to accomplish though. I want to bet less, and win slowly and stay steady, so I can survive the slumps that come and go. I had a slump in January when I went 2-10... Been fine since then using this approach.

I was wondering if anyone has tried to go through blazehaze's picks and figure out his point buying system and handicapping skills. Morrison very easy to understand...but its success surprises me! G.

Betting-170 means a change in how a person wagers. The amounts of the wagers must be lessened or sacrificed in order to have a higher winning percentage. But by all means, please don't let LT Profits see this. He will rip you a new one over buying points versus Kelly. His theory words is if you believ a team is going to win take the moneyline or give up the points. If you don't believe a team is going to win then take the dog.

[Jimbo42]

Looking like UCLA is a for manana CK

shhh.. its a secret...

[cocknocker]

I do think however that it is a good strategy. I just have a problem with doing it for EVERY game. Your winning percentage will DEFINITELY go up. But when you lose it will be catastrphic unless you make a wager for -170 without the intention of bringing home a dime. For instance, take today's New Orleans game. On Greek right now the line is New Orleans-6.5. To buy it down to -3.5 is -220. So in order to make a dime you would have to put up $2200.00. Okay now the flip side of that with Kelly involved is to do the smart thing and take the moneyline for New Orleans (-280) and just get rid of the points altogether, because you are risking -220 and they STILL have to win by 2 possessions or more. I mean while you're getting rid of some of the liability, you might as well go all the way and put $1500 down to make a half nickel. I mean if you just want to have a higher winning percentage you might as well get rid of ALL the liability such as you did with the Celtics yesterday. Does that make sense or should I make another example?

[cocknocker]

Certain circumstances would call for a moneyline or 3 point buy. Say for instance a team is on their last road game or 1st home game after a long road trip. Well if they are favored in those games then it would be a good idea to take the underdogs and tack on the 3 points. However if ateam has gone on a long winless roadtrip and then comes home then I would bang the moneyline in that game for them if they are favored. So while I am not agreeing ith doing it for every game, there are certain circumstances where it can come into play and be VERY useful. Maybe if we do it when a team is on their third road game and jet lag starts to set in..

[G's pks]

It makes sense but buying 3 points at BJ only costs -170, so if you are on the line at -110, buying 3 moves it to just -170 total. In the N.O. case it would be -3.5 at -170 at Bj... So quite a bit less risk $ wise...Have not looked at todays games did not even know they were playing...The strategy has hurt me up to now once... I had Rider one night Ml and it cost a few bets that night... And once losing one, it does take a few solid bets to make it up. But I am doing ok...slow and steady...thanks for the great responses keep up the great work G.

[handimann]

Did the Cowboys really release Terrell Owens with no number one wide receiver to replace him? That was an idiot move. They're giving the Arizona Cardinals all that they need should they decide to sign Owens. My guess is that some kind of way he ends upon a team within the same decision. Now THAT would be good. Romo is a....well whatever. T.O. shouldn't have been crying over his ass. He is the biggest choke quarterback in the NFL

why do you think the cards will sign him? just another option in case the whole boldin renegotiations fall through? that would be a dream scenario for me. cards still have a lot of cap room even after signing warner so i think the cards should give it a go. even if they just use it as leverage against boldin.

[G's pks]

Thanks again for the response, I will let you guys get back to business now. Oh and I am big on something Curious mentioned awhile back now. Who is hot, who is not. Watching teams like Minnesota going through pitiful losing runs. Noticed Sunday they were 1-9, last 10. Were playing Hous... Hous was a nice easy winner for me. I think looking at last ten and previous head to heads within last year also are a big plus. I will not ever bet on the Clippers this year...they are horrible. Odd witha team that does have some talent! Well take care G.

Certain circumstances would call for a moneyline or 3 point buy. Say for instance a team is on their last road game or 1st home game after a long road trip. Well if they are favored in those games then it would be a good idea to take the underdogs and tack on the 3 points. However if ateam has gone on a long winless roadtrip and then comes home then I would bang the moneyline in that game for them if they are favored. So while I am not agreeing ith doing it for every game, there are certain circumstances where it can come into play and be VERY useful. Maybe if we do it when a team is on their third road game and jet lag starts to set in..

[cocknocker]

handimann

Boldin will be sent out of town in a suit if the Cards and T.O. make contract negotiations. With him on one side and Fitzgerald on the other I don't think the Cardinals can be stopped on offense. Of course a fresher pair of legs at the running back position wouldn't hurt. I would love to see that offense with Knowshon Moreno on it and T.O. WOW!

[csimmalavong]

dallas somewhat let down game, just enough for n.o to win...not sure by that much though

[handimann]

handimann

Boldin will be sent out of town in a suit if the Cards and T.O. make contract negotiations. With him on one side and Fitzgerald on the other I don't think the Cardinals can be stopped on offense. Of course a fresher pair of legs at the running back position wouldn't hurt. I would love to see that offense with Knowshon Moreno on it and T.O. WOW!

i would shed tears of joy if T.O. lined up with warner, moreno, and larry come september. warner can handle T.O. because he doesn't take sh*t from anyone and T.O. would love being in a high-powered offense like that. cards still have 22 mil in cap room (5 more if they release edge) so they definitely have a shot if they want to take it. as for the draft, beanie, knowshon, or mccoy will all make me happy next month.

[repski]

Arizona -3.5 over 143
Arizona has now lost three in a row (2-1 ATS) following a seven-game SU win streak (6-1 ATS). Putting them on a 8-2 ATS run. The Wildcats are 14-2 on their home floor, averaging 75.6 ppg this season while allowing 65.2.

Cal, is on a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS skid. and 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five conference road games, averaging 65.8 ppg and giving up 70.8.

Arizona is 8-8 SU (10-6 ATS) in Pac-10 play this season, including 6-1 SU and ATS on its home court. California is 10-6 SU (8-8 ATS) in league games, with a 3-4 SU and ATS road record.

Arizona is on a 4-1 SU run (3-2 ATS) in this rivalry, though Cal rolled 69-55 as a 4½-point home chalk in early January, making this a nice revenge spot. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Arizona is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall , 5-0 at home, 7-1 against winning teams, 11-4 after a SU loss .

The over for Arizona is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 11-2 against winning teams
The over for Cal is on ATS runs 20-9 on the road, 12-4 against winning teams and 24-8 on Pac-10 play.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and six of the last eight in Arizona.

[repski]

handimann

Boldin will be sent out of town in a suit if the Cards and T.O. make contract negotiations. With him on one side and Fitzgerald on the other I don't think the Cardinals can be stopped on offense. Of course a fresher pair of legs at the running back position wouldn't hurt. I would love to see that offense with Knowshon Moreno on it and T.O. WOW!

I see him going to Oaktown....they were looking @ bringing back Porter.....why not TO

[OperatorX]

how did SP's fare last night btw? I saw Kentucky got absolutely smoked even though it wasnt an SP.. Seems to me its been a rough go at it in this thread over the last couple weeks. I'm not here to bash.. im learning a lot but wow, I think if I went against the consensus in this thread for the past lil while I woulda been up a lot! seasons change and things re-arrange though, so best of luck everyone tonight.

[handimann]

I see him going to Oaktown....they were looking @ bringing back Porter.....why not TO

me too actually. coming back to the bay area after all these years..

i think the cards might make a run at holt too if the rams release him. a lot of solid options for a no. 2 wr right now. getting excited

[repski]

NO -5.5 (1pt buy)

Dallas beat San Antonio 107-102 as a 3pt. home favorite Wednesday. On the road this season, the Mavs are averaging 97.3 ppg while allowing 99.0, and is in an 0-4 SU and ATS. losing all four by seven points or more.
The SU winner has coverer ATS in each of the Mavs last 10 as a visitor and 20 of their last 21 on the road.

New Orleans has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), but this is only the second time this season these teams have met, with NO posting a 104-97 road win as a 4½-pt fav in January.
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to NO
The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine.
The home team is on a 7-3 ATS run.

[JohnMorr08]

One play for me tonight

Cal Santa Barbara / Cal Riverside OVER 120

[cap10]

i just read on 'the score' that cowboys released SAFETY roy williams;;

[Dexter]

the mavs will be on a btb and playing their 4th game in 5 nights vs a rested hornets team that is 4-1 ats (5-0 su) the last 5 at home to dal (avg win margin of 11ppg). projected line of -4.5

-hornets (big)
______________
the blazers will be on a btb vs a rested nuggets team who are coming off of 2 straight up road losses. melo will be back, and i expect the trend of home team wins this year to continue. projected line of -5.


-nuggets (big)
______________

booked-

no -6 (big)
den -7 (big)

[cap10]

i would be careful about fading dal mavs right now ;; cuban has threated to cut everbody if lackluster play continues like a couple of games ago vs okc

[roasthawg]

the mavs will be on a btb and playing their 4th game in 5 nights vs a rested hornets team that is 4-1 ats (5-0 su) the last 5 at home to dal (avg win margin of 11ppg). projected line of -4.5

-hornets (big)
______________
the blazers will be on a btb vs a rested nuggets team who are coming off of 2 straight up road losses. melo will be back, and i expect the trend of home team wins this year to continue. projected line of -5.


-nuggets (big)
______________

booked-

no -6 (big)
den -7 (big)

With you on NO, against you on the Nuggets. G/L!

[cocknocker]

Well i just got the word from LT Profits on the whole 3 point buying thing we're alking about today. He suggets that the correct use of the 3 point buy is to find it at -170 and then use it on the following: Underdogs of +5 to +8, and on favorites in the -8 to -10 range. So starting tomorrow G's Pks, we will put this method into use for the next couple of weeks and see how it fares! Obviously I will hae to cut down on the amounts of money I wager on games, and I will make my new target/objective to bring in half dimes instead of going for a dime off of 1700. So I will shorten my wagers to $850 to make $500.00 during this experiment!

[Whiplash]

I don't think it'll be lack of motivation in the DAL game cap, they're coming into the last game of a 4 in 5, and coming up against a hot NOR team, 7-3 L10, winning streak of 5.

I'm more likely only betting on DEN mL tonight. Portland was coming off a big game last night, where they blew the Pacers out in the last qtr to get the win. Therefore, they could be tired and lose by a bunch, or be rejuvenated after the win and keep it close. Regardless, Denver will still beat them in the altitude.

[SoonerGreg]

Romo is overrated I wonder who they will find to blame this year?.

Do you even watch football? Romo has only been a starting in the NFL for less than seasons. Did you see how pathetic the Cowboys O looked in the 3 games Romo was hurt.

P.Manning, T.Brady, and Big Ben are obviously the Top 3. After that Romo is lumped in with P.Rivers, K.Warner, J.Cutler and D.McNabb. Look at the numbers!

[cocknocker]

On my fades, I have taken Dallas+9, and Portland+10 just see what will happen with this experiment. Both of those teams fit the criteria of what LT describes!

[Pensinger1]

G's Pks,

I was following BlazeHaze's picks and I have also followed Morrison. Do not be fooled by the higher win-rates of both Blaze and Morrison. Obviously when you buy 3-points you are going to hit at a higher clip. Hitting at 70% with a 3-point buy (paying -170) is the same thing as hitting at 60% (paying -110). For instance, I think Morrison A-Bets are hitting at around 75% this season with a 3-point buy.. without the 3-points they are hitting at around 65%.. If you had started a system at the beginning of this season that said to only play Morrison A-Bets, you would be profiting the same whether or not you buy the points (HOWEVER, with regards to overall series, there would have been certain "series" losses had you not bought the 3-points every game as directed, which obviously would have resulted in huge losses to your roll.. so in terms of chase systems, you must play them right or not play them at all to even consider the possibility of being profitable.. to me the risk:reward is not there when I can just hit 60% paying -110 or better every time). Same thing with Blaze.. he is hitting around 72% with his 3-point buys, however, if you were to play his picks without any points, you'd be hitting around 61-62%. In the end, it is of my humble opinion that point-buys are a break-even proposition (with the exception of buying hooks to get down to even numbers.. 2.5 to 2, 4.5 to 4, etc..)

[cocknocker]

After all, Portland is 5-2 ats coming in and Denver is 1-6 ats in recent form. One's hot the other's not..

[cocknocker]

That's the same thought process that I have Pensinger1. All that it takes is one loss at that -170 for you to be humbled, and it takes around two to three games to get back what you lost on that one wager. But I have a lot of bucks in the fade account and it's time to move it back into Betus for the monster baseball bonus. So while I am waiting for the end of April, I am going to try this on my fades and see where it goes from here, and at the same time i will satisfy the Betus requirements for receiving the free money