Leans for Friday 2/20/09 International Week

peetlui · 02-20-09, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by BCaldwell32

Why buy a half a point to get onto 8?

8 is a key number.

nonsense48 · 02-20-09, 02:34 PM

DEX, i'm surprised that you're not on your blazers as they're rested, healthy and home

TheLemonDropKid · 02-20-09, 02:39 PM

Wow......I've been looking at the games today and going through this thread......and I feel like sticking my head in a blender!!!

And to top it all off......I can't find JohnMorr's thread!

AND....the only love song I can come up with for Hockeytown today is LL. Cool J.'s....."I need love"........

BebeRebozo · 02-20-09, 02:39 PM

Orlando Magic -2,5
New York Knicks -3

nonsense48 · 02-20-09, 02:40 PM

DEX, nevermind. i guess i should start at the beginning of the thread before asking questions as now after i checked, i see that you're on atl. good luck buddy

Dexter · 02-20-09, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

DEX, i'm surprised that you're not on your blazers as they're rested, healthy and home

pure historical play for me there. plus vegas is trying to get blazer money with such a low line now imo...

last 5 games in port resulted in blazer wins by 1,1,1, 7 and a su win for atl.

BigDownUnder · 02-20-09, 02:44 PM

Bugger, Sela lost first set vs Kunitsyn. Rubbish result, he wasted so many break point opps and is already up a break in second set. If my book let my gamble in play i would double up on sela at 5/6 to win match (bet365), but alas my book doesnt.

Fingers crossed Niagra win tonight to get my monies back

___________________
BigDownUnder record:
NBA 2 - 0 - 0
Other 2 - 1 - 0

Killer Chihuahua · 02-20-09, 02:45 PM

Killer Plays for 2/20/09

NCAA

Yale +5 (.5 hook)
ADD VCU +2
NBA

OKC +8
CHAR +3
Minny -3
CHI +3
ATL +5
ADD lakers -8
Wings Over (HT play

)

FINAL CARD

good luck all

repski · 02-20-09, 02:52 PM

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Dexter · 02-20-09, 02:53 PM

ck - non and i are thinking about playing all dogs in the ncaa tourney - i have yet to find any concrete %'s for the last say 5 years. would you agree that this would be a good idea, or do you even now the %'s?

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Ceelo22

Hockeytown, my book has Det/Ana at 6, is over still a good play?

I would not play it at 6,I can tell you if mine was 6 I would not be playing it,now obviously I think there will be 6 goals or I wouldnt play over 5.5 but having it be a 6 is really a 2 goal difference kinda like cks "key number" theory,you need 7 to win which is big difference in pucks from needing 6

repski · 02-20-09, 02:57 PM

VCU LEAN
Nevada 2-12 ATS in there last 14 Home games

Killer Chihuahua · 02-20-09, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by repski

VCU LEAN
Nevada 2-12 ATS in there last 14 Home games

Repski,

That is a very good lean....That game actually opened at +3 and is down to +1 at some books. With only 36% of the public on VCU I was hoping for a small push back to two pointS AND PLAY IT WITH A POINT BUY AT 3. I think the value is at 3 so will wait.

Good luck with your wagers

cocknocker · 02-20-09, 03:05 PM

With Amare out for the Suns tonight, I think that the Suns is actually the play. Teams historically respond to a star being out, and Gentry has the Suns playing an uptempo game which compliments the talent that he has on his roster. Shaq will be logging heavy minutes now, but he actually looks like the Shaq of old again lately. The Suns have players that can make up for the lost production of Amare, but not the presence. I think that they will play good for a while and then they will feel the effects of him being out. Once news of the injury is wide spread, I expect the consensus numbers to get even by the end of the day, and then Phoenix line to stay at 8.

cocknocker · 02-20-09, 03:07 PM

Playing all of the dogs is a wonderful idea for the 1st day of the tournament, with the exception of any game that doesn't have a moneyline. In those take the favorite for the full game

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 03:09 PM

who am I on tonigt in hoops guys? I need 2 pros and 2 college

The_Kid · 02-20-09, 03:09 PM

I'm liking the OVER tonight with the Pacers/T'Wolves. No Jefferson means no interior defense and no Dunleavy/Granger means pushing the pace more to get easy transition buckets. Ford will have the ball in his hands a lot now and with no big man in the middle, I think he finds a way to get easy layups.

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 03:10 PM

how does clevland not destroy milwaukee tonight? mo may go for 50

The_Kid · 02-20-09, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by hockeytown11

how does clevland not destroy milwaukee tonight? mo may go for 50

Sessions can more than handle his own against Mo Williams.

thegenix · 02-20-09, 03:13 PM

[n00b question]
saw your secret plays the other day and was wondering what exactly made a play a "secret play"?
[/n00b question]

good luck today!

Ditaln1 · 02-20-09, 03:21 PM

HT : I'll be posting my daily CBB pick shortly. Just looking at the very short card. 4-1 is the record so far.

hockeytown11 · 02-20-09, 03:24 PM

I already booked Cornell,Vcu,Niagra,Ny Knicks,Clev

TheLemonDropKid · 02-20-09, 03:26 PM

I was able to find JohnMorr's thread fairly easily yesterday....but can't seem to find it today.....anybody know where it is?

Dexter · 02-20-09, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

I was able to find JohnMorr's thread fairly easily yesterday....but can't seem to find it today.....anybody know where it is?

The JM "Chase system" $1000 bank roll ( 1 2 3 ... Last Page)
dbartinbwgc

masr · 02-20-09, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by hockeytown11

only 1 play for today in NHL

Wings/Anaheim over 5.5

its 6 at my book...what do u think?... pull the trigger?

nonsense48 · 02-20-09, 03:45 PM

masr, hockey says "NO" to 6

TheLemonDropKid · 02-20-09, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

The JM "Chase system" $1000 bank roll ( 1 2 3 ... Last Page)
dbartinbwgc

Thanks Dex.......actually i don't know what I was smoking, but it must have been Schappattack's thread I was talking about.

But that JohnMorr thread looks very interesting as well....I'm wondering if it's the same thing I looked up about 6 months ago. This guy has a book out about a system which seemed very much like the "martingale method" where you double up on the next bet if the first loses......and so on? If I remember correctly people were questioning the winning percentage, because the losses didn't count if you won them back on the double up etc???

Dexter · 02-20-09, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

Thanks Dex.......actually i don't know what I was smoking, but it must have been Schappattack's thread I was talking about.

But that JohnMorr thread looks very interesting as well....I'm wondering if it's the same thing I looked up about 6 months ago. This guy has a book out about a system which seemed very much like the "martingale method" where you double up on the next bet if the first loses......and so on? If I remember correctly people were questioning the winning percentage, because the losses didn't count if you won them back on the double up etc???

exactly - not a loss if you cover the losses from bet 1, and still go after your unit in bet 2.

Dexter · 02-20-09, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

masr, hockey says "NO" to 6

dont you just lose the vig on a push in hockey?

whatisit · 02-20-09, 04:13 PM

I'd take the 6...if Hockey's right and it goes over 5.5, the worst I can do is a push...if he's wrong, then we all will lose the bet anyways.

TheLemonDropKid · 02-20-09, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

dont you just lose the vig on a push in hockey?

and this statement coming from the "vig police"? you're always on my butt for making so many bets because of the vig.

and I appreciate it......

Dexter · 02-20-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

and this statement coming from the "vig police"? you're always on my butt for making so many bets because of the vig.

and I appreciate it......

lol - i dont know hockey...

i get what you're saying - but if its a strong play, i dont see why it would be a NO PLAY at 6..

masr · 02-20-09, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

masr, hockey says "NO" to 6

Thanks guys, Good luck tonight

plays**

NY-ML
Atl +6.5 (-130)
DAL +5 (-130)
MILW +8

Killer Chihuahua · 02-20-09, 04:30 PM

Adding LA Lakers -8 (.5 hook)

The Line on this game was set at -8 by LVSC yesterday but this morning at 10:22 am LVSC made a line correction to -8.5.....something they dont usually do. The books quickly followed suit moving the line to -9. It has since come down to -8.5 with vegas happy that the public is on New Orleans at 66%. Im gonna take Koby and the wierd line movement to get some late night money

repski · 02-20-09, 04:34 PM

Yale

Yale seems to have the RLM here 70% public on Cornell yet the line has moved to Yale +6 to +4.5..

Yale is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog

Yale is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss

From a series perspective, the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings

Cornell is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Yale