Leans for Friday 2/20/09 International Week

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  • peetlui
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-12-09
    • 469

    #106
    Originally posted by BCaldwell32
    Why buy a half a point to get onto 8?

    8 is a key number.
    Comment
    • nonsense48
      SBR MVP
      • 12-15-08
      • 2927

      #107
      DEX, i'm surprised that you're not on your blazers as they're rested, healthy and home
      Comment
      • TheLemonDropKid
        SBR MVP
        • 02-02-09
        • 1501

        #108
        Wow......I've been looking at the games today and going through this thread......and I feel like sticking my head in a blender!!!

        And to top it all off......I can't find JohnMorr's thread!

        AND....the only love song I can come up with for Hockeytown today is LL. Cool J.'s....."I need love"........
        Comment
        • BebeRebozo
          SBR MVP
          • 12-28-08
          • 2094

          #109
          Orlando Magic -2,5
          New York Knicks -3

          Comment
          • nonsense48
            SBR MVP
            • 12-15-08
            • 2927

            #110
            DEX, nevermind. i guess i should start at the beginning of the thread before asking questions as now after i checked, i see that you're on atl. good luck buddy
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #111
              Originally posted by nonsense48
              DEX, i'm surprised that you're not on your blazers as they're rested, healthy and home
              pure historical play for me there. plus vegas is trying to get blazer money with such a low line now imo...

              last 5 games in port resulted in blazer wins by 1,1,1, 7 and a su win for atl.
              Comment
              • BigDownUnder
                SBR Rookie
                • 02-18-09
                • 27

                #112
                Bugger, Sela lost first set vs Kunitsyn. Rubbish result, he wasted so many break point opps and is already up a break in second set. If my book let my gamble in play i would double up on sela at 5/6 to win match (bet365), but alas my book doesnt.

                Fingers crossed Niagra win tonight to get my monies back
                ___________________
                BigDownUnder record:
                NBA 2 - 0 - 0
                Other 2 - 1 - 0
                Comment
                • Killer Chihuahua
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-16-08
                  • 324

                  #113
                  Killer Plays for 2/20/09

                  NCAA

                  Yale +5 (.5 hook)
                  ADD VCU +2
                  NBA

                  OKC +8
                  CHAR +3
                  Minny -3
                  CHI +3
                  ATL +5
                  ADD lakers -8
                  Wings Over (HT play)

                  FINAL CARD

                  good luck all
                  Comment
                  • repski
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-01-09
                    • 1929

                    #114
                    OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
                    8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #115
                      ck - non and i are thinking about playing all dogs in the ncaa tourney - i have yet to find any concrete %'s for the last say 5 years. would you agree that this would be a good idea, or do you even now the %'s?
                      Comment
                      • hockeytown11
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-04-09
                        • 1102

                        #116
                        Originally posted by Ceelo22
                        Hockeytown, my book has Det/Ana at 6, is over still a good play?
                        I would not play it at 6,I can tell you if mine was 6 I would not be playing it,now obviously I think there will be 6 goals or I wouldnt play over 5.5 but having it be a 6 is really a 2 goal difference kinda like cks "key number" theory,you need 7 to win which is big difference in pucks from needing 6
                        Comment
                        • repski
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-01-09
                          • 1929

                          #117
                          VCU LEAN
                          Nevada 2-12 ATS in there last 14 Home games
                          Comment
                          • Killer Chihuahua
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-16-08
                            • 324

                            #118
                            Originally posted by repski
                            VCU LEAN
                            Nevada 2-12 ATS in there last 14 Home games
                            Repski,

                            That is a very good lean....That game actually opened at +3 and is down to +1 at some books. With only 36% of the public on VCU I was hoping for a small push back to two pointS AND PLAY IT WITH A POINT BUY AT 3. I think the value is at 3 so will wait.

                            Good luck with your wagers
                            Comment
                            • cocknocker
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-06-08
                              • 8001

                              #119
                              With Amare out for the Suns tonight, I think that the Suns is actually the play. Teams historically respond to a star being out, and Gentry has the Suns playing an uptempo game which compliments the talent that he has on his roster. Shaq will be logging heavy minutes now, but he actually looks like the Shaq of old again lately. The Suns have players that can make up for the lost production of Amare, but not the presence. I think that they will play good for a while and then they will feel the effects of him being out. Once news of the injury is wide spread, I expect the consensus numbers to get even by the end of the day, and then Phoenix line to stay at 8.
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #120
                                Playing all of the dogs is a wonderful idea for the 1st day of the tournament, with the exception of any game that doesn't have a moneyline. In those take the favorite for the full game
                                Comment
                                • hockeytown11
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-04-09
                                  • 1102

                                  #121
                                  who am I on tonigt in hoops guys? I need 2 pros and 2 college
                                  Comment
                                  • The_Kid
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-09-08
                                    • 5049

                                    #122
                                    I'm liking the OVER tonight with the Pacers/T'Wolves. No Jefferson means no interior defense and no Dunleavy/Granger means pushing the pace more to get easy transition buckets. Ford will have the ball in his hands a lot now and with no big man in the middle, I think he finds a way to get easy layups.
                                    Comment
                                    • hockeytown11
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-04-09
                                      • 1102

                                      #123
                                      how does clevland not destroy milwaukee tonight? mo may go for 50
                                      Comment
                                      • The_Kid
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-09-08
                                        • 5049

                                        #124
                                        Originally posted by hockeytown11
                                        how does clevland not destroy milwaukee tonight? mo may go for 50
                                        Sessions can more than handle his own against Mo Williams.
                                        Comment
                                        • thegenix
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-14-08
                                          • 339

                                          #125
                                          [n00b question]
                                          saw your secret plays the other day and was wondering what exactly made a play a "secret play"?
                                          [/n00b question]

                                          good luck today!
                                          Comment
                                          • Ditaln1
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-26-07
                                            • 588

                                            #126
                                            HT : I'll be posting my daily CBB pick shortly. Just looking at the very short card. 4-1 is the record so far.
                                            Comment
                                            • hockeytown11
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-04-09
                                              • 1102

                                              #127
                                              I already booked Cornell,Vcu,Niagra,Ny Knicks,Clev
                                              Comment
                                              • TheLemonDropKid
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-02-09
                                                • 1501

                                                #128
                                                I was able to find JohnMorr's thread fairly easily yesterday....but can't seem to find it today.....anybody know where it is?
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                  I was able to find JohnMorr's thread fairly easily yesterday....but can't seem to find it today.....anybody know where it is?
                                                  The JM "Chase system" $1000 bank roll ( 1 2 3 ... Last Page)
                                                  dbartinbwgc
                                                  Comment
                                                  • masr
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-20-07
                                                    • 4773

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by hockeytown11
                                                    only 1 play for today in NHL

                                                    Wings/Anaheim over 5.5
                                                    its 6 at my book...what do u think?... pull the trigger?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nonsense48
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-15-08
                                                      • 2927

                                                      #131
                                                      masr, hockey says "NO" to 6
                                                      Comment
                                                      • TheLemonDropKid
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-02-09
                                                        • 1501

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by Dexter

                                                        Thanks Dex.......actually i don't know what I was smoking, but it must have been Schappattack's thread I was talking about.

                                                        But that JohnMorr thread looks very interesting as well....I'm wondering if it's the same thing I looked up about 6 months ago. This guy has a book out about a system which seemed very much like the "martingale method" where you double up on the next bet if the first loses......and so on? If I remember correctly people were questioning the winning percentage, because the losses didn't count if you won them back on the double up etc???
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                          Thanks Dex.......actually i don't know what I was smoking, but it must have been Schappattack's thread I was talking about.

                                                          But that JohnMorr thread looks very interesting as well....I'm wondering if it's the same thing I looked up about 6 months ago. This guy has a book out about a system which seemed very much like the "martingale method" where you double up on the next bet if the first loses......and so on? If I remember correctly people were questioning the winning percentage, because the losses didn't count if you won them back on the double up etc???
                                                          exactly - not a loss if you cover the losses from bet 1, and still go after your unit in bet 2.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by nonsense48
                                                            masr, hockey says "NO" to 6
                                                            dont you just lose the vig on a push in hockey?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • whatisit
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 01-25-09
                                                              • 319

                                                              #135
                                                              I'd take the 6...if Hockey's right and it goes over 5.5, the worst I can do is a push...if he's wrong, then we all will lose the bet anyways.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TheLemonDropKid
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-02-09
                                                                • 1501

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                dont you just lose the vig on a push in hockey?

                                                                and this statement coming from the "vig police"? you're always on my butt for making so many bets because of the vig.

                                                                and I appreciate it......
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                                  and this statement coming from the "vig police"? you're always on my butt for making so many bets because of the vig.

                                                                  and I appreciate it......
                                                                  lol - i dont know hockey...

                                                                  i get what you're saying - but if its a strong play, i dont see why it would be a NO PLAY at 6..
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • masr
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-20-07
                                                                    • 4773

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by nonsense48
                                                                    masr, hockey says "NO" to 6
                                                                    Thanks guys, Good luck tonight

                                                                    plays**

                                                                    NY-ML
                                                                    Atl +6.5 (-130)
                                                                    DAL +5 (-130)
                                                                    MILW +8
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Killer Chihuahua
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 12-16-08
                                                                      • 324

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Adding LA Lakers -8 (.5 hook)

                                                                      The Line on this game was set at -8 by LVSC yesterday but this morning at 10:22 am LVSC made a line correction to -8.5.....something they dont usually do. The books quickly followed suit moving the line to -9. It has since come down to -8.5 with vegas happy that the public is on New Orleans at 66%. Im gonna take Koby and the wierd line movement to get some late night money
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • repski
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-01-09
                                                                        • 1929

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Yale

                                                                        Yale seems to have the RLM here 70% public on Cornell yet the line has moved to Yale +6 to +4.5..

                                                                        Yale is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog

                                                                        Yale is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss

                                                                        From a series perspective, the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings

                                                                        Cornell is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Yale
                                                                        Comment
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