JAnthony's system picks NBA 2013/14

[JAnthony]

J my man! Don't waiver, have faith in the system and make tweaks where necessary. Your a good capper in my book

Thanks for the support! I really appreciate it, man.

[cburland10]

Taking Dallas +2, Suns +10.5.

Good luck tonight, I got faith in you! Good guy

[JAnthony]

Thanks to referees and K. Perkins for screwing up a 6-1 day. How can you miss that Batum's inbound in such a pivotal moment? Perkins is just Perkins, I will never understand why on earth he was on the floor at that moment. Nevertheless, I'll take 5-2 as well.

Phoenix Suns +10.5 W (+0.90u)
Detroit Pistons -4.59 W (+0.90u)
Denver Nuggets -4 L (-1u)
Indiana Pacers -8 W (+0.84u)
IND/UTA Under 188 W (+0.82u)
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 L (-0.5)
Dallas Mavericks +2 W (+0.44u)

04/12/2013
5-2-0 (+2.4u)

System record:
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Units: +2.14u

[JAnthony]

Okay, locking this one in early, because there might be a 1.5 to 2 point swing in Knicks favour.

05/12/2013

System picks:
New York Knicks PK (pick rating 3.5 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.90

[JAnthony]

If the Knicks can deliver that 10th straight loss tonight, they deserve my 1 unit for sure. Knicks are out-rebounding Brooklyn, if we look at road/home rebounding, and Brooklyn is the worst team in the league when it comes to defending perimeter shots, which, as we all know, Knicks like taking and knocking down...a lot.

[JAnthony]

There is one more pick that my model produced today, which is worth considering. It's MIA/CHI over, however, there is a slight influence of that 3OT thriller between NOP and CHI few nights ago on this pick. I'll hold back for now and make a decision after the NYK/BKN game, so, if you are interested, stay tuned.

[cburland10]

Thanks for the great night! Keep doing your thing man

[JAnthony]

Los Angeles Clippers ML (pick rating 2.5 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.95

[Mako-SBR]

Nice work on all this J, agree on your decision to "reset" the system and the elimination of TTs. Keep it up.

[JAnthony]

Nice work on all this J, agree on your decision to "reset" the system and the elimination of TTs. Keep it up.

Thank you very much for your kind words and support!

[JAnthony]

He he, was very tempted to take the Bulls tonight as well, would have been an miraculous night, but my two picks did turn out pretty good after all.

New York Knicks PK W (+0.90u)
Los Angeles Clippers ML W (+0.48u)

05/12/13
2-0-0 (+1.38u)

System record:
9-4-0 (69.2%)
Units: +3.52u

[JAnthony]

Just ran the model for tomorrow's big card and one thing is clear - books have adjusted like crazy. Most of the lines are spot on. But we shouldn't worry much yet, because there are still 4-5 good (total/ats) and possible picks. I'll look deeper into each individual match-up during the day and hopefully will come up with something for tomorrow night ('tonight' for me). Stay tuned!

[JAnthony]

06/12/2013

System picks:
New Orleans Pelicans +5 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.89
MIL/WAS Over 190.5 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.83

[JAnthony]

CLE/ATL Under 196 (pick rating 2.5 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.83
UTA/POR Under 200.5 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.90

[JAnthony]

Orlando Magic +5 (pick rating 4 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.84
ORL/NYK Over 194 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.83

[JAnthony]

Today's card complete. Got quite a few, to say the least, picks after all due to some line movement and late openers.

Big card, big burial!

[alsonlow]

Have been away for awhile. Glad to be back and see you doing good!

[JAnthony]

Ok, two more picks.

Portland Trail Blazers -11.5 (pick rating 3.5 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.89
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (pick rating 2.5 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.90

[JAnthony]

Was exactly ONE basket short from 5-3 for tonight (tough 1 point over in CLE/ATL game), however, I'm not very disappointed by going 4-4 on the night, since too every play my model suggested. Loved the Lakers cover, what a defensive effort by Lakers (except in the 1st q). On tomorrow's games. Sorry, guys, for falling those .26 units short because of the juice!

New Orleans Pelicans +5 L (-0.5u)
MIL/WAS Over 190.5 W (+0.42u)
CLE/ATL Under 196 L (-0.5u)
UTA/POR Under 200.5 L (-0.5u)
Orlando Magic +5 L (-0.5u)
ORL/NYK Over 194 W (+0.42u)
Portland Trail Blazers -11.5 W (+0.45u)
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 W (+0.45u)

06/12/2013
4-4-0 (-0.26u)

System record:
13-8-0 (62.9%)
Units: +3.26u

[JAnthony]

07/12/2013

System picks:
DET/CHI Over 189 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.89
Sacramento Kings +3.5 (pick rating 3.5 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.92
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 (pick rating 3.5 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.90
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (pick rating 4 out of 5) --> 2 Units @1.90

[JAnthony]

IND/SAS Under 190 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.88
MIA/MIN Over 202 (pick rating 2.5 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.86

[JAnthony]

Parlay (form system picks):
Milwaukee Bucks +3
Memphis Grizzlies +2
0.25 Units @3.40

Card complete, fellas! Let's get buried

[cburland10]

Damnnn, rough night..

[JAnthony]

DET/CHI Over 189 L (-1u)
Sacramento Kings +3.5 W (+0.92u)
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 L (-1u)
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 L (-2u)
IND/SAS Under 190 L (-0.5u)
MIA/MIN Over 202 L (-0.5u)
Parlay L (-0.25u)

07/12/2013
1-6-0 (-4.33u)

System record:
10-10-0 (50%)
Units: -0.81u

[JAnthony]

Ouch, weekend madness happening again. Really did not expect that one coming. But what can you do, this shit happens. Anyway, I'm on tomorrow night's plays already. See you all later.

[JAnthony]

08/12/2013

System picks:
Indiana Pacers +5.5 (pick rating 4 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.87

[JAnthony]

BOS/NYK Under 193 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.86

[JAnthony]

TOR/LAL Under 205 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 0.5 Units @1.86
Toronto Raptors +5.5 (pick rating 3 out of 5) --> 1 Unit @1.90

[Divra]

Good luck.

[JAnthony]

Good luck.

Thanks, man! Hopefully, will manage to get a nice rebound after last night's "pick funeral".

[JAnthony]

BOS/NYK game was such a joke, glad it stayed under after that 3pt festival late in the 3rd. Just realised that I locked in Boston +5.5 really early and forgot about it obviously won't count it towards the record here, but still a pleasant surprise

[JAnthony]

Indiana Pacers +5.5 L (-1u)
BOS/NYK Under 193 W (+0.86u)
TOR/LAL Under 205 W (+0.43u)
Toronto Raptors +5.5 W (+0.90u)

08/12/2013
3-1-0 (+1.19u)

System record:
13-11-0 (54.2%)
Units: +0.38u

[JAnthony]

Projection record
63	53	54.31%
			TOTALS
23	19	54.76%
			ATS
28	18	60.87%
			TEAM TOTALS
12	16	42.86%
Star plays
22	15	59.46%	*/**
29	20	59.18%	***/****
0	0	#DIV/0!	*****
51	35	59.30%	TOTAL

This is an excerpt from my model showing the overall performance and record so far this season. To believe it or not is your own choice, but I can assure that I have no intentions to fake or make it any better than it actually is. Stared plays are the ones I play, but I'm not always playing all of them, therefore, my record can deviate from models record a bit. Feel free to ask any questions, if something bothers you. Cheers!

As you can see, most of the money is "coming in" from ATS picks, which is interesting, because at the very beginning I designed this model for predicting totals as its main task, but as it turned out - ATS are doing a lot better, thus far.

[JAnthony]

09/12/2013

System picks:
Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (pick rating 3.5 out of 5) --> 1.5 Units @1.90

My local bookie is offering some seriously outdated lines for this one, so I'm grabbing it while it's still there. This might be the best pick tonight. There is a chance, that I might middle it for half a unit, if line goes up where it should be during the day.

[dzikik]

Pinny has Dallas at -5. Do you think it's worth to bet?