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Following your picks JAnthony, do you have any solid star picks?Comment -
Ok, folks, big card today and some value can certainly be found. Quite a few picks from my side, which is a bit alarming, since there is always a massive burial after great nights (which was yesterday). Was trying to be as sceptic and objective as possible with my pick selection for tonight. Tail or fade, but be ready to cope with consequences!
27/11/2013
Picks:
IND/CHA Under 182.5 (pick rating 3/5)
Washington Wizards -2 (pick rating 3/5)
SAS/OCK Under 203 (pick rating 3/5)
Atlanta Hawks +9.5 (pick rating 4/5)
Personal picks:
Denver Nuggets +7
Philadelphia 76'ers +4
Let's get buried alive!
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Might add something for the late game - NYK/LAC, but most likely it will be right before the tip-off.Comment -
I'm so confused by the 76ers. I feel like they shouldn't be playing this good and should regress to the mean but it's been a month and they're still at it.
Love the Nuggets pick. Twolves slumping and Nuggets with their tempo always can put up points.Comment -
All right, fellas, no need to pick the late game, since there is not much of a value there anyway. It's always great to be on the green side after the night with a card as big as this, no need to mess it up. Cheers!
IND/CHA Under 182.5 (pick rating 3/5) W
Washington Wizards -2 (pick rating 3/5) W
SAS/OCK Under 203 (pick rating 3/5) W
Atlanta Hawks +9.5 (pick rating 4/5) L
Denver Nuggets +7 W
Philadelphia 76'ers +4 L
27/11/2013
System picks: 3-1-0
Personal picks: 1-1-0
YTD: 8-4-0 (66.6%)
System picks: 7-2-0 (77.7%)
Personal picks: 1-2-0 (33.3%)
*TT Bonus plays (YTD): 5-5-0
*NOT COUNTED TOWARDS THE OVERALL RECORD, just tracking
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Clippers covering -10 as well, but I do not regret the decision not to lay money on that game, though. Garbage basketball.
By the way, question for those, who follow my picks (if any) - would you like me to post the amount of units I'm betting on each game?Comment -
Hi Janthony....
Hey man.... Another great Day today 4-2.. Awesome work buddy.. I tailed you and im up.. Cheers
Yes if you could post up how much your laying on each bet that would be great..
You go anything for tomorrows NFL???Comment -
I'm glad that I was able to be of any help with my picks.
Ok, in future I'll post the amount of units as well, but for now let's enjoy well deserved day-off in NBA
Speaking of NFL, I can't answer positively to this one. I do not know nothing (almost) about NFL, but I just tail other cappers I find solid...for the sake of action.Comment -
Huge follower here, liked your picks tonight, though i put them in a parlay it didn't come up for me. Will divide the picks up next time. Would be good to know how much you're putting on your bets. Give us an indicator on how confident you are with them.
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Nice to hear that, but feel sorry for you, man. Don't ruin profitable nights with parlays, it's heartbreaking I have one friend of mine, who does the same thing - I give him my thougts on plays and he puts 'all of the eggs in one basket', it is sad that I had a 5-1 night and was up huge, but he was in red because of that one missed game.
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Hey, everyone! It's time to get back to work. Ran the model and, surprisingly, really few games qualified. Actually, pure qualifier is only one, but few are almost playable, just down 0.1 points from the benchmark. But some lines are not released yet, though. So here are my leans so far.
29/11/2013 (UPDATED!)
Leans*:
1) Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 (LOCKED IN at +6)
2) MIL/CHA Under 183
3) DAL/ATL Over 201.5 (LOCKED IN at 201)
4) BKN/HOU Over 205
5) Phoenix Suns -2
6) Golden State Warriors +7.5
Potential plays*:
1) Indiana Pacers -10
2) Boston Celtics -3.5
3) Houston Rockets -10.5
Bonus TT leans:
1)Dallas Mavericks TT Over 101.5
2) Houston Rockets TT Over 107.5
3) Utah Jazz TT Under 94.5
*These are only pure leans for the games as they stand in the system at this point. Leans are not rated and fully analysed (situational trends, injuries etc.). DO NOT TAKE THEM AS FINAL!Comment -
Locked in Lakers at +5, see this game as a real steal. Not sure why they're not the favourite to be honest, Detroit stink!
What are your thoughts on;
Miami -5
Charlotte -5.5
Orl/SanAnt Under 196?Comment -
Hey, man! Same thoughts here about Lakers game.
Miami is too unpredictable in their actions and model actually predicts them to win with 4-5 point difference, that is why I'm not even in that direction.
In Milwaukee/Charlotte game model predicts Charlotte by 5, but gut feeling says Milwaukee can take it tonight. That is why I'm strongly considering playing Bucks +5.5 as my personal play.
Magic/Spurs game again is a coin toss in my opinion, because Orlando definitely gonna play fast and it can cause a lot of TO and easy buckets for Spurs OR they can connect and shoot well and Spurs will have to keep up...Of course Spurs defence can lock Magic out enitrely and keep them under 90 points. There is no real base to hold to on either of the sides (over/under).
But I'll go through everytihing in more detail in an hour, because I'm just finishing my work and heading home.Comment -
Please see updated leans above, as the rest of the lines were released. Also locking in firs plays for tonight.
29/11/2013
Picks:
Los Angeles Lakers +6 (pick rating 4/5) @ 2 Units
*Buying extra 0.5 pointsComment -
Personal picks:
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ 1 UnitComment -
Picks:
DAL/ATL Over 201 (pick rating 3/5) @ 0.5 Units
Even though, you wanted me to indicate the amount of units I put on each game, I still would advise you to carefully consider how much to lay on those picks and not to blindly follow mine. However, if you decide blindly follow my plays, then I would actually recommend to flat-bet them, because the thing is my model only tries to predict outcomes, money making or losing process is up to every individual himself. The money management ultimately will be the decisive factor of how good or bad your season will end. Be ambitious, but never lose your head!
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Favorite pick for tonight? Thanks JAnthony!
Assuming the Lakers due to the unit bet but just want to clarify.Comment -
All of them are almost equally good in my opinion, but probably the strongest one would be Lakers. However, I really like Bucks chances tonight, that's not my strongest lean in terms of data to back it up, but I would definitely call it favourite one for tonight.
Basically, from sceptical point of view - Lakers, from 'I believe in it', emotional stand point - Bucks.
Will see how these go and then will make a game-time decision wether or not to play Phoenix -2, also seems like a solid bet.Comment -
Thanks for your input! Riding with you tonight. BOLComment -
I hope you don't mind if i post what i ended up going with tonight? I took two of your picks and two of my own to see how my first night posting what i play, goes.
Lakers + 5.5
Orlando + 8.5
Phoenix - 2.5
Mil/Cha Under 183
BOL everyone and thanks JAnthony for your plays. Enjoying this threadComment -
Looking at 0-3 night, sorry guys. I guess Bucks is one worthless bunch of people after all.Comment -
Lakers came through. No problems man!Comment -
God bless Josh Smith and his disastrous shot selection.Comment -
Whew! That was close!Comment -
Ok, thanks to Lakers for stepping up, some crucial rebounds from P.Gasol and awful shots by Smith. At least broke even (+0.1u doesn't really count as 'green') for the night. I'm really sorry for that Bucks pick. Those guys are done for the season, tanking like mad.
Los Angeles Lakers +6 (pick rating 4/5) @ 2 Units W (+1.6u)
DAL/ATL Over 201 (pick rating 3/5) @ 0.5 Units L (-0.5u)
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ 1 Unit L (-1u)
29/11/2013
System picks: 1-1-0
Personal picks: 0-1-0
+0.1 Units
YTD: 9-6-0 (60%)
System picks: 8-3-0 (72.2%)
Personal picks: 1-3-0 (25%)
Units: +0.1
*TT Bonus plays (YTD): 6-7-0
*NOT COUNTED TOWARDS THE OVERALL RECORD, just tracking
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Punching myself now for missing out on all square bets: Bos -3.5, Ind -10, Hou -10.5. I hope that somebody took them from my leans.Comment -
Damn it! My posted leans for today went 8-1 and I played the only user, that requires some skill to be this unlucky.Comment -
Ok, here are my model projections and leans for tomorrow night.
30/11/2013 (UPDATED!)
Leans*:
1) ATL/WAS Over 193
2) CHI/CLE Over 180 (LOCKED IN at 180)
3) MIN/DAL Over 206.5 ; Dallas Mavericks +2 (LOCKED IN at +2.5)
4) Boston Celtics -1 (LOCKED IN) ; Under 187.5 (LOCKED IN at 188)
5) BKN/MEM Over 186
6) Phoenix Suns -8.5
*These are only pure leans for the games as they stand in the system at this point. Leans are not rated and fully analysed (situational trends, injuries etc.). DO NOT TAKE THEM AS FINAL (without me indicating them as final picks)!
Bonus TT leans:
1) Atlanta Hawks TT Over 94.5
2) Dallas Mavericks TT Over 102.5
3) Milwaukee Bucks TT Under 91.5
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Locking in some of the plays already, because these lines seem golden at the moment. BUT, depending on the line movement there is a chance that I'm gonna middle them during the day, so stay tuned!
30/11/2013
Picks:
Boston Celtics -1 (pick rating 4/5) @ 1 Unit
BOS/MIL Under 188 (pick rating 3/5) @ 1 Unit
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CHI/CLE Over 179.5 (pick rating 3/4) @ 1 Unit
Locking in plays really early today, since I think that these lines are a bargain. I expect theme to move towards more realistic numbers during the day and I'll keep an eye on them.Comment
