JAnthony's system picks NBA 2013/14

[alsonlow]

my book have bos -2, bos/mil u187 and chi/cle o181. is that ok?

[JAnthony]

my book have bos -2, bos/mil u187 and chi/cle o181. is that ok?

I locked them in very early, so yeah lines have risen and dropped more towards where they should be.

Both Boston/Milwaukee picks are good even with your lines, but I would advise to get those extra 0.5 points, if possible.

CHI/CLE over/under line at 181 is not a play anymore, according to my model, but it is not a bad bet in my opinion. If you decide to play it, play for less units than usual or pass it.

[alsonlow]

I locked them in very early, so yeah lines have risen and dropped more towards where they should be.

Both Boston/Milwaukee picks are good even with your lines, but I would advise to get those extra 0.5 points, if possible.

CHI/CLE over/under line at 181 is not a play anymore, according to my model, but it is not a bad bet in my opinion. If you decide to play it, play for less units than usual or pass it.

okthanks for the advice (:

[JAnthony]

Leans UPDATED!

[OsPhan47]

Hey JAnthony, been following this thread. What do you make of the Minn/DAL line movement?

Btw, decided to take the Phoenix -2 and your LAL +5.5 pick last night!

[JAnthony]

Hey JAnthony, been following this thread. What do you make of the Minn/DAL line movement?

Btw, decided to take the Phoenix -2 and your LAL +5.5 pick last night!

Hey, nice to hear that!

About MIN/DAL game - Dallas +2 is now a play, according to model. Calderon is questionable, that probably caused the line movement, also the fact that Minnesota hasn't won for a while.

2-0 night for you then, good job!
Was about to take Phoenix -2, as well, as it was 4 star pick, but missed it by 3 mins and local bookie didn't have live betting for that game :/

[FilL IVY League]

Hello, fellow forum members!
Decided to go public with my picks and, hopefully, help someone out with an advice or information.

Let's get started! First leans and picks coming in soon.

Hey J great thread, looking nice so far so good, thanks for taking the time to post and share. BOL

[JAnthony]

Hey J great thread, looking nice so far so good, thanks for taking the time to post and share. BOL

Thanks, I appreciate the kind words.

[John7]

Hey,been following you and earned some cash,very good system.Can u give a top 3 picks tmr for parlay.Thanks

[JAnthony]

Picks:
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (pick rating 3/5) @ 0.5 Units

Personal picks:
Houston Rockets +6 @ 0.5 Units

With these picks I'm gonna round up my card today. Feel free to express your opinion as well and do not hesitate, if you have any questions regarding today's plays.

LET'S GET BURNED! (betting alternative of "Break a leg" idiom)

[JAnthony]

Hey,been following you and earned some cash,very good system.Can u give a top 3 picks tmr for parlay.Thanks

Hey, man, that is nice to hear. For tomorrow?

[John7]

Hey, man, that is nice to hear. For tomorrow?

Yea for tmr (:

[OsPhan47]

Hey, nice to hear that!

About MIN/DAL game - Dallas +2 is now a play, according to model. Calderon is questionable, that probably caused the line movement, also the fact that Minnesota hasn't won for a while.

2-0 night for you then, good job!
Was about to take Phoenix -2, as well, as it was 4 star pick, but missed it by 3 mins and local bookie didn't have live betting for that game :/

Ya it was a good night. Phoenix -2 just jumped off the page without any special analysis, just look at where the line is today haha. Keep doin what your doing!

[JAnthony]

Yea for tmr (:

Sorry, man, but I haven't ran my model for tomorrow yet. And I would be able to do it properly only after tonight's games.

[John7]

Sorry, man, but I haven't ran my model for tomorrow yet. And I would be
able to do it properly only after tonight's games.

Oh sorry,what I meant was tonight's games,I think time zone difference haha.

[Smuck]

Hey J, Im with you on Celtics -2 pick today... Keep it up

[JAnthony]

Oh sorry,what I meant was tonight's games,I think time zone difference haha.

Yeah, technically here in Europe those games are also tomorrow, since they are after midnight, but I refer to them as "today's"

But let's cut to the case. My top games are the ones I posted as final picks, so I would advise to choose from them and scale it down to 2 team parlay. But it's your call, man. You can maybe post some options, which you would consider picking (parlay combinations) and I can try to evaluate them and give my feedback.

[John7]

I'm thinking of parlaying 3 games
1)Boston -2 locked
2)Chi vs char over 182 locked
3)phx -8.5 or mem vs nets under 186 or dal +2

What's your best pick on the third option.

[cburland10]

I'm thinking of parlaying 3 games
1)Boston -2 locked
2)Chi vs char over 182 locked
3)phx -8.5 or mem vs nets under 186 or dal +2

What's your best pick on the third option.

Seeing as the only one he is playing is dallas, there's your answer..

[alsonlow]

I'm thinking of parlaying 3 games
1)Boston -2 locked
2)Chi vs char over 182 locked
3)phx -8.5 or mem vs nets under 186 or dal +2

What's your best pick on the third option.

bro, word of advice - dont parlay. i rather you ends a day with 3-2 or 3-1 and be positive for the day then killed by a loss match in a parlay.

[JAnthony]

Seeing as the only one he is playing is dallas, there's your answer..

Definitely not the under in Nets game. Phoenix is a good option, since my model predicts them to win by 13.5 points, but the fact that it's a b2b against the same team, I'm a bit concerned, wether they will be able to cover that -8.5. Therefore, I would say Dallas +2 (or buy some points and lay +3), but the decision is still yours to make.

ATL/WAS Over 190.5 is worth considering, despite the fact that line dropped by 5 points.

[JAnthony]

bro, word of advice - dont parlay. i rather you ends a day with 3-2 or 3-1 and be positive for the day then killed by a loss match in a parlay.

Words of wisdom.

[LilGiant]

bro, word of advice - dont parlay. i rather you ends a day with 3-2 or 3-1 and be positive for the day then killed by a loss match in a parlay.

The TRUTH! GL

[John7]

Thanks for all advice,goodluck to everyone,happy sunday!

[cburland10]

Still in such a toss up... gonna take the celtics but really not sure if any of the other games today have value..

also my lines are celtics -3.. still a good pick?

[ace_202]

I hope you don't mind if i post what i ended up going with tonight? I took two of your picks and two of my own to see how my first night posting what i play, goes.

Lakers + 5.5
Orlando + 8.5
Phoenix - 2.5
Mil/Cha Under 183

BOL everyone and thanks JAnthony for your plays. Enjoying this thread

So i ended up going 3-1 from this night, pretty happy with that.

--

Just before tip-off in the Wash/Atl game I only really felt comfortable with 3 plays tonight. The other games seem to incorporate more than just statistical calculations to determine a winner, in my opinion anyways.

Bos - 1.5
Chi/Cav - Over 180
Memp/Brook - Over 186

Looking for a 6-1 to round out my first two days.

Like always, BOL and thanks again for your picks JAnthony.



Edit:

Wowee, got smoked tonight.
Lost the Memphis/Brook over by a bees doodle. Didn't end up seeing that Randolph was out, would've thought about that one again.

Celtics just destroyed my other one.

What were your thoughts on tonight's games JAnthony?

[JAnthony]

Boston Celtics -1 (pick rating 4/5) @ 1 Unit L (-1u)
BOS/MIL Under 188 (pick rating 3/5) @ 1 Unit W (+0.85u)
CHI/CLE Over 179.5 (pick rating 3/4) @ 1 Unit W (+0.85u)
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (pick rating 3/4) @ 0.5 Units L (-0.5u)
Houston Rockets +6 (pick rating 3/4) @ 0.5 Units W (+0.44u)

30/11/2013
System picks: 2-2-0
Personal picks: 1-0-0
+0.64u

YTD: 12-8-0 (60%)
System picks: 10-5-0 (66.6%)
Personal picks: 2-3-0 (40%)
Units: +0.74

*TT Bonus plays (YTD): 8-8-0
*NOT COUNTED TOWARDS THE OVERALL RECORD, just tracking

[JAnthony]

I knew that Bucks gonna screw me over once again, but the value of the line was too high (when it opened). Oh, well can't really complain when things end up 'green', managed to hit a sweet little 5 team parlay (NHL+NBA), so not a bad night after all. I'll get up soon and will run the model for tonight's card while having breakfast. Stay tuned!

[alsonlow]

I knew that Bucks gonna screw me over once again, but the value of the line was too high (when it opened). Oh, well can't really complain when things end up 'green', managed to hit a sweet little 5 team parlay (NHL+NBA), so not a bad night after all. I'll get up soon and will run the model for tonight's card while having breakfast. Stay tuned!

whats the 5 team parlay you hit?

[JAnthony]

Ok, guys, these are my early leans. Might jump on some of them early on, because there is a great chance that, for example, Philly line will drop as the day goes on.

01/12/2013 (UPDATED!)

Leans*:
1) Philadelphia 76'ers +8.5 (LOCKED IN at +9)
2) Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5
3) New Orleans Pelicans +1.5
4) IND/LAC Over 189.5 (LOCKED IN at 188)
5) MIA/CHA Under 189

Bonus TT leans:
1) Philadelphia 76'ers TT Over 99.5
2) Minnesota Timberwolves TT Over 100

[JAnthony]

whats the 5 team parlay you hit?

Chicago Blackhawks ML, Pittsburgh Penguins ML, HOU/SAS Over 207, CHI/CLE Over 180, Brooklyn Nets +9

[JAnthony]

01/12/2013

Picks:
Philadelphia 76'ers +9 (pick rating 4/5) 1.5 Units @1.84

Locking this one in early. I honestly thing (my model as well) that 9 points is way too big of a spread for Philly not to cover. Detroit is awful against fast paced, spread-the-floor shooting game 76'ers are playing. Line will probably drop to +/- 7.5 until the tip-off.

[JAnthony]

The rest of my picks for tonight will follow after the PHI/DET game, so stay tuned, if interested. Tonight might go against my model as well, I think that Knicks might finally snatch a win tonight.

[JAnthony]

Personal pick:
Toronto Raptors -1.5 1 Unit @1.81

[JAnthony]

Picks:
IND/LAC Over 188 (pick rating 3/5) 1.5 Units @1.84