Leans for Wednesday 2/11/09

[repski]

decided to just make a normal size wager on boston - paul and chandler will be gametime decisions - even if they play, minute mixing will be an issue for no - so i still like boston to take this one by 10+ off a su loss. plus, i'm cold with larger plays, so will stick to my rule of thumb which is to bet less when i'm cold, more when i'm hot.

If your like me the quickest way to end a 'hotstreak" is to bet more..

[hunt3rtheone]

cavs today should win?

[Dexter]

peter - i would be on the spurs, but they are horrid btb...i cant play an old team on btb off a blowout win.

as for the celts game, we may not see a line until later tonight. i'll project:

boston -4 (with paul)
boston -7 (no paul)

[cocknocker]

secret plays ... don't trust them anymore, lost too much on Saturday.

I'm really sorry to hear that, but if the criteria is there, I'm playing them until the end of the NCAA season. Even with a bad Saturday going 1-5, they are STILL 33-12-0. At a dime and a half a pop, I have still got over $30,000.00 just on these alone. I already suggested that these types of wagers not be mixed up with the same account as your other wagers. Something tells me that this is not what you are doing. I sinceerely hope that you listen to me when baseball season comes. Any person who does not follow my advice about how to play my baseball system and plays them right along with their account for other things is doomed to fail and will be screaming at me while me and my partners are making BIG money on the long haul. Even with a bankroll of $4000.00, there will betimes in the May where your bankroll is going to go down to $2200 or so. If you mix that up with a bad day wagering on other things you will be bankrupt. Keep them seperate, you will have like-kind results such as the ones I have with Secret Plays (they came with instructions as well, but as usual nobody read the instructions, and thus not too many coud handle a 1-5 day like I could.)

The criteria is there, so they get played for the usual amount, straight no parlay

[El Degeneroso]

On board with the secret play, Orlando, and San antonio, leaning towards Cleveland but trying to talk myself out of it (I thought they looked like a tired team yesterday). One college thought tonight that I have that I'd like to hear opinions on:

Xavier (-3.5) @ Dayton:

Xavier has owned the series of late, winning the last 6 in a row, including 2 straight covers at Dayton. They've been a great road performer this season with a 6-1 ats record. Solid conference ATS record as well, going 6-2. Coming off a loss to an unbelievably hot-shooting Duquesne team (who shot over 80% in the 1st half) I think that this is a team that will be firing on all cylinders tonight. Also, I really like Xavier's offensive numbers (shooting over 47% from the floor and just over 40% from 3).

Dayton, on the other hand, has been a relatively underwhelming ATS performer at home. Their 14-0 record SU belies their 3-7 home ATS record in lined games. In contrast to Xavier's offensive numbers, Dayton's are very underwhelming for a team with their record, they shoot 42% from the floor and 32% from 3. One area of concern for me in this is Dayton's very good defense, which limits the opponent to 35% shooting and 53 ppg at home. Also of note is that Dayton is coming off a loss of well, at Charlotte where they got outscored by a ton in the second half.

Overall I think that Xavier's talent and coaching edge, along with their recent dominance, edge out Dayton's home court and defense. So far the line has moved a point from 2.5 to 3.5, I think it moves even more before the game. Taking the X Men minus the points.

[peterpan19]

dex
well your right, but they are playing Tor and they just didnt show me enough yesterday, still think it will be a good game and Spurs will cover today again, Tor is also only 4-4 on b2b games this year and thats with bosh and SA is 4-7 on b2b games, but 3-1 ATS the last 4 times, so they are improving

edit: ck what is styles playing today ?

[repski]

UNCW/William & Mary

guys,

what's your lean here?? I think we're getting value here with UNCW @ +8.5.....

- this team crushed 2 CK SP'slast week beating VCU as a 18pt dog...S/U
-covered a BIG spread against Northeastern...in fact was within 6pts with 1minute left...
- 4 games back lost to a pretty good Hofstra team by 2....

[NYCKEV]

I like NC -1.5,Lakers -2.5 and San An -6.5. GL all

[repski]

Lean to Houston tonight

Houston is 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss

Houston is 5-0 ATS off a double digit loss

Sacramento is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games when playing BTB

Sacramento is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. winning teams

Sacramento 1-5 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game

[Dazzez]

[50lipa]

A no ML over 9.5 play on the fav for the half.

Edit: freakin fast editer!

[BelieveTheHype]

Oklahoma -3 seems really solid to me

[schaapattack]

You cant argue the record of the . Poor money management will kill you. I like your plays tonight ck.
CK, do you have a system in baseball also that does as good as the ck plays in basketball? I dont think ill ever bet the cavs again against a descent team. they only seem to cover against the bad teams and with Illgauskus back they arent playing as good.

[hockeytown11]

why is penn st getting 11?

[solobass]

why is penn st getting 11?

is hummel really that valuable? i am taking a close look at this one.

[jaymac82980]

hockey, I like those picks. I love betting the over 6 games.

[repski]

is hummel really that valuable? i am taking a close look at this one.

I'm a Penn State alum...I watched that Wisconsin game @ home...and they really weren't competitive to Wisconsin @ home....

this may be a "they are who we thought they were"

[hockeytown11]

I am a MSU guy bigtime and I saw what Penn st did to MSU at Breslin and PSU is not 11 points worse than Purdue IMO

[solobass]

I'm a Penn State alum...I watched that Wisconsin game @ home...and they really weren't competitive to Wisconsin @ home....

this may be a "they are who we thought they were"

hey thanks for the beatdown on my spartans....that was really great. i might grab penn st. here, but will wait for more $$ to come in and drive the line down. already down to 10.5 on my book.

[repski]

GS/NYK over last night was easy...271pts...

[NYCKEV]

Does anyone know why the Lakers game just dropped to a PK? is anyone out for the Lakers?

CK I think i might of just gotten f*c*ed by the line movement on the Laker game. I took em at -2.5 and now its a PK. When do u suggest is the best time to take a line? I try to get up as early as possible before any good looking lines go up any further, but in this case the line went down to a PK.

[repski]

hey thanks for the beatdown on my spartans....that was really great. i might grab penn st. here, but will wait for more $$ to come in and drive the line down. already down to 10.5 on my book.

I actually was looking @ Purdue....back to back BAD losses to Mich,Wisc....PSU isn't getting my money....I'll just watch

[jaymac82980]

I think Kobe is out for sure.

[repski]

Clipshow..

I like the Clipshow tonight.....throwout the Larry Brown well coached game in Charlotte and they were crushing bad teams...NYN BTB...and they have injury concerns
Quentin Richardson was out of New York’s lineup with a bruised chest, and the Knicks then lost Tim Thomas late in the first half to a sore left groin. Midway through the fourth quarter, point guard Chris Duhon sprained his left ankle. Duhon finished with 13 points and nine assists.
“I thought we got physically outmanned,” Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni said. “I thought they were just better than us physically. We lost Timmy at halftime. Duhon limped the whole game. Those are excuses, and not to pull them out, but I also don’t want to throw my guys under the bus. I just thought that they ran out of gas, and Golden State’s a very good team at this moment.”

[NYCKEV]

why is Kobe out? I didn't see or hear anything bout this.

[Dexter]

why is Kobe out? I didn't see or hear anything bout this.

he's not out - unless there is news that hasnt hit the wire yet.

i see nothing out there -

[Smacksmiter]

The Cavaliers situation is indeed puzzling... I went back and looked at LeBron's scoring/assists per game over the year to see if I could spot any trends...

In November, their record was 13-2, James was the leading scorer in 12 of the 15 ganes played and he averaged 31.5 points per game with his highest total being 41.
Also, in November, he led the team in assists in 10 of 15 games averaging 7.8 assists per game.

In December, they played 14 games and went 12-2. Lebron led the team in 12 of those game in points scored with 30.1 points per game. Highest game total was 38. He led the team in assists in 10 of those games with a 7.4 per game average.

In January, their record was 10-4. James was the leading scorer in 12 of the games with an average of 28.3 points per game and a high of 38. He led or tied for the assist lead in 12 of the games with an average of 8.9 per game.

In February so far, they are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS with wins vs the Pistons/Raptors/Knicks and losses vs the Lakers (home) and Pacers (away). In the 5 games played, James has led the scoring in 4 of the 5 averaging 41.25 per game. His highest scoring total in these games is 52 at the Knicks which is also his high for the year. He also led in assists in 4 of 5 games averaging 8.8 per game.

I decided to also look at opponent scoring averages vs the Cavs for each month..

In November when the Cavs went 13-2, their opponents averaged 93.7 ppg against them.
In December the Cavs went 12-2 and opponents scoring vs them was 85.9 per game.
In January the Cavs went 10-4 and opponents averaged 93.7 ppg against them.
In February, the Cavs are 3-2 with opponents averaging 92.4 ppg against them.

In the loss to Indiana last night, it was the 13th time in his career that James scored 45-or-more points in a regular-season game. The Cavs had won the last seven games in which James notched at least 45 points and are now 8-5 in those 13 games. A 62.5% winning percentage.

One other thing I looked at... who did the Cavs lose to? All but one of their losses is on the road, so here they are...

November... New Orleans and Detroit
December... Atlanta and Miami
January...... Washington,Chicago,Lakers and Orlando
February.....Lakers (home loss) and Indiana

Things that jump out at me... Lebron has increased his scoring in the last 5 games by over 10 ppg compared to his previous months this season. It seems the more he scores, the lower their winning percentage becomes...

Is this just a typical pre All Star Break lack of focus or a trend?

Anyone have any thoughts on this data?

[NYCKEV]

Dex, any idea as to why the Lakers game dropped to a PK? I would assume someone is not playing for the Lakers.

[CUAIrish]

BOS
PORT
DEN
SA

[Dexter]

added play-

the pacers have beaten the celts, magic, lakers and now the cavs at home this year. huge emotional wins that clearly can take a lot out of a team. in the games following the other 3 losses, the pacers have lost all 3 su/ats by an avg of 10ppg. factor in a btb here for indy (6-8ats this year) and both teams each winning su/ats this year on their home court - and i'll side with the home team again in this one.

-bucks (big)

[nonsense48]

booked:cbb:tenn-10 1st 1/2 byu-10 1st 1/2 nba:spurs-7 orl-7.5 cle-8 bos-7.5 for a nickle each GOOD LUCK EVERYONE...sorry, meant byu

[Dexter]

Dex, any idea as to why the Lakers game dropped to a PK? I would assume someone is not playing for the Lakers.

i just think its sharp money on utah - lakers played last night, so often you do see lines moving towards the rested team. the public is all over la at 85%, but someone clearly dropped a few bricks on utah.

[nonsense48]

DEX, looks like down to the wire in tourney play for you. get 'em buddy. good luck

[Dexter]

booked plays-

celtics -7.5
magic -7.5
bucks -5 (big)

[nonsense48]

DEX, i like your bos and orl choices but i 'm staying away from the ind/milw game as both teams combined have too many key injuries but your facts on indy can't be denied and they did just beat cavs with the injury list they have.