Leans for Tuesday 1/13/09

[t-bone]

Joanapoker,

The way I got to 300$ a bet is simple math.....I first had to ask myself how much money I could comfortably afford to loose a week and not care. That total for me was about 2800$. Not that I ever plan to loose this much but if it happened so what. So how do I get 300$ A bet from this? ok........

If I bet 5 games a day at 300$ each, that would be risking 1500$ a day (no juice added)
If I bet this amount (1500$) for all 7 days (and you know I do) that would come to 10,500$ risk per Week (no juice added)
Now if I have a bad week and hit only 40% of my bets.........well then of that 10500$ I will owe the book 6300$ (plus juice -lets say 700$ for a total of 7000$) that is 60% of my bets that i lost.
Now I did win 40% of my bets to the tune of 4200$ wohooo
So.....the 7000$ that I owe the BOOK minus what I won for the week, 4200$, comes out to a loss of 2800$ for that week that I would owe the book.
Now keep in mind I am keeping this simple with the vig and all, as we all know buying points can get expensive. But this might be a good starting point for you.
Please keep in mind that my pockets my be a little deeper than others as I own several realestate and construction companies in Houston.
But the main thing is this, 3000$ a week does not hurt me nor my family. My kids get milk, my wife still gets diamonds and my dogs dont get beat when i loose. So Bet what you can afford and you will not care when an ocassioinal PC play does not hit!
Hope this helps many.

Great write-up man!

[cocknocker]

Okay Play#3

Minnesota+100 moneyline

[BigMoneyMan]

OK this is going to be a good one today. So here it is.

First game Minny. The home team owns this series and Miami is not in a good position. Since Ck likes it I an doubling to 2 units.

Game 2: The Suns. They are playing the best ball I have seen from them in a long time and Atlanta is not. 54% and line movement not good for the Hawks. 1 unit

Game 3: Denver: I cap is game at 10+ and with the trends the way these two are playing i will go heavy on this one also. 2 units

Game 4: Teasing Bobcats and Houston. Bobcats look good in all categories except the trend against Detroit. They just plain own them. I am hoping with the new team and the first game back home they can keep it close. Houston is in revenge mode here but with the injuries I wanted a little extra insurance.

Final Card Minny ML. 2 units, Suns -6 (buy down to key number) 1 unit, Denver -5.5 2 units, and Houston/ Charlotte teaser 1 unit. LET GET SOME!!

[nonsense48]

Nonsense jumped aboard now with Bradley -3
also took Memphis +8.5

Charlotte still good value at +7 ?

roller, bradley should cover with ease. we shall see

[danrman]

todays personal play is on the houston rockets...

[cocknocker]

Play#4

Teasing Phoenix and Denver to

Phoenix-3.5
Denver-2

I couldn't make up my mid which one that i like better, so I shortened my wager and teased them both together. Both games have excellent line movement! I couldn't rock with the Hawks and their play as of late...

[jaymac82980]

anyone know why the o/u for miami game is dropping so much?

[nonsense48]

DEX, where do these clowns come from and why do they bother with their bullshit?

[t-bone]

bobcats/pistons is down to 174.5......but it still says stay away dammit!

[cocknocker]

Okay I have updated my cover page to indicate what I am playing on my final card tonight

Minnesota+100 moneyline
Grizzlies+8.5
Charlotte+8
Denver-2/ Phoenix-3.5 Teaser

CBB 2-way Parlay

Alcorn-5.5
Ball State-5.5

[cocknocker]

Indiana State+3.5 BIG

[africanroller]

Wow Kansas St. Just dropped another full point to +6.5 thats a 2 point drop today with still close to 60% on Kansas. Anyone think they win outright?

[jaymac82980]

ck, why are you not touching the ORL game? I am not sure why the line dropped, but I took ORL at -7.5. ORL 4-1 last 5, Sac 1-4 last 5. ORL is 15-3 against the spread recently, and SAc.....WON'T COVER!

[Luv2Poker]

Indiana State+3.5 BIG

CK-can u kindly give me some reasoning behind this play. Going opp of the pub?

[zackattack]

Indiana State+3.5 BIG

seems like everyone is on bradley and then you like indiana st big?.....help us out, why?

[Pick'nParlays]

opp of the public=winner. why would you think the public wins? so what the ****ing bookies are consistently loosing money? wake up

[bumppinee]

Bumppinee 4th and last pick of the day

Memphis +9, lets get the books people

[jaymac82980]

I think its great how all day, the people that stroke CK and love him to death, have been talking about how they love Bradley, and how they got it at -x, and how it's a good pick, and bradley will cover, blah blah blah. Now last minute ck chgimes in with Indiana+3.5 BIG. haha. Don't worry guys, Bradley is the pick. Indiana's top shooter is out.

[cocknocker]

Only kidding about the Indiana State thing, but really I think the board has made the wrong call on that one. There's no such thing as free money, and with that many peopleon their side the line didn't move enough to sway me to take it. if anything, if I was to touch that game, I would have to go the other way. But that's why they play the game!

jaymac82980,

The question that's in my head is why would the linemaker and the books make it any easier to take the Magic? Probably because they want us to take them....I don't like the easy looking games to put my money on. What i will do with that one is watch the fist half and then make adetermination on the 2nd half. For all intents and purposes, if everything is alright with Orlando, they should be up by double digits at the half. if not, then I would probably jump on them if they are down, or jump on Sacramento if they are down by 20 at home...

[jaymac82980]

If you think Indiana is BIG=3.5, why wouldnt you have chimed in on some of your "CK Mafia" buddies, before they laid money on bradley so confidently?

[jaymac82980]

CK, you see by that joke, you probably made tons of readers (who don't think for themselves) crap their pants thinking, "DAMN, CK took Indiana!?!?! Now I have to hedge my bet".

[ZHUMPY]

Kansas State +6 NOW!.. I got um at 8.5

[cocknocker]

I just had to pull everybody's chain! Only in our world can this joke work

[jaymac82980]

I think the linesmaker are wrong on the ORL line, it is too low. You will see.

[africanroller]

No matter what CK says I am on Bradley

You know the public does win sometimes right?

[Luv2Poker]

opp of the public=winner. why would you think the public wins? so what the ****ing bookies are consistently loosing money? wake up

RELAX!!!! It was a simple question. Do you bet the opposite of the public on every bet u make? I think not. I was simply asking for his reasoning behind it.

[africanroller]

Jaymac someone is calling you

[mixpicks]

CK, Now your speaking like a TRUE Sports Investor, I remember long time ago on that other site, you use to sound more like a sports fan/writer, Much Respect... Char.Hornets, Kings, Also, like that "system" Re: ATL (Buy it to)9.5
BOL.... Lastnite Port. Then Added NYK same reasons as tonites plays.

[jaymac82980]

and I like the joke, but why can I make a joke and then we have to read a whole days worth of "ck ass kissing" to make up for one comment against your pick, but when you make a comment against a popular pick of the board tinght, it is funny?

I'm laughing at the thought of these guys all spitting coffee onto their computer screens when they read you were taking Indiana BIG though! I LOVE IT.

[jaymac82980]

Roller? who is calling me?

And p.s., I made a killing on your NHL picks last night. I parlay'd the tampa game with the under. BIG

[lambogb]

anybody got any NBA 1h plays? so yall dont have to look

charlotte/detroit
+/- 4.0
o/u 89.5

cleveland/memphis
+/- 5.0
o/u 93.0

miami/minnesota
+/- 0.5
o/u 97

la lakers/houston
+/- 2.5
o/u 99.5

[africanroller]

Hey Jaymac if you read the board only two people have claimed to take Bradley

Glad you hit it big. Some will tell you I suck

[jaymac82980]

roller, did you really just waste your time scrolling through 208 posts? Get a life and tell me your NHL picks. haha.

[africanroller]

Jaymac I was one of them with Nonsense. That is why I know who wagered on Bradley but if you scrolled through you could have seen my NHL pick that has already started.

[cocknocker]

That's the board that rebels against you jaymac82980, not me. I said it the second day that I was at SBR. The CK Mafia are my muscle as well as my handicapping partners. Once you say anything sideways to me, they are on your ass. Does a person like it, no...But it is what it is. You didn't come from where we came from and haven't dealt with the issues that we've had to deal with, so you'd probably not understand the backlash and the swiftness of the retaliation. But when you lose someone or something that is dear to you once, you never want that kind of thing to happen again. So you covet that thing.

Any person who makes you lose words and people is not a person who needs to be on your inner circle. And what i mean by losing words is that you get to a point where you have nothing to say that is positive from dealing with another person. What i mean by losing people is that people who are important to your inner circle are driven away by the words of that person or the person who was transgressed against decides to leave as well. Such is the case where we come from. They are very protective of me. Think about it for a moment, where else in the world can you get this kind of a fellowship and advice and picks for free? You just remember to leave your cup at the end of the bar tonight. I saw you sneak a glass outside last night, lol!