Zii's NBA Thread 2013

[Zii]

06/03/2013:

Miami Heat OVER 202.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

San Antonio Spurs UNDER 191 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

LA Clippers OVER 204.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Utah Jazz ML (1 Unit) - LOCKED

New York Knicks -4 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

LA Lakers -2 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

A lot of games on the card today and I'm gonna play 6 of them tonight. Hoping for a solid green night and wish you all the same! BOL!

[Zii]

Decent night yesterday, a bit disappointed about Miami performance, but have to deal with that and ain't gonna argue about 66.6% night. Hope things turned out well for all of you, especially for people who follow this thread. See you on Thursday with only 2 games on card.

06/03/2013: 4 - 2 - 0
+1.80 Units

YTD: 64 - 54 - 2
+1.74 Units

[Zii]

Record in March: 17 - 8 - 0 (68%)
+7.62 Units

[Zii]

Early, freshly baked write-up and leans for one out of two games today. Your thoughts, comments and suggestions would be appreciated!

Leans 07/03/2013:
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers visiting Denver to face local Nuggets. Both teams won their previous games, though, Clippers are in a b2b situation here in Denver. This game is also a series decider between these two, in both previous games home side prevailed, Denver even won by significant double digit margin, but Chris Paul was out for Clips in that game. Denver Nuggets are currently on a powerful 6 game winning streak and they will most definitely try to extend that streak with a home victory over Clippers.

Denver Nuggets is 2nd best home playing team in the league (they can catch Miami heat in this one, if they win today) and 1st in Western conference. They have covered the spread in 20 out of 29 home games 20-9-0 (69%), 37-25-0 (59.7%) overall.

LA Clippers are doing a bit worse in terms of covering the spread 17-15-0 (53.1%) as away team, 36-27-0 (57.1%) overall.

All ATS trends are pretty similar for both teams, though, there are some aspects that differ and can make a difference in this duel:
- Denver Nuggets ATS after 1 day off - 22-12-0 (64.7%); LA Clippers ATS on b2b - 8-7-0 (53.3%);
- Denver Nuggets ATS against Western conference teams - 26-11-0 (70.3%); LA Clippers - 21-17-0 (55.3%).

Additional ATS trends:
- Denver is 2-1 ATS as -3 to -5 pts home favourite; Clippers are 4-1 ATS as +3 to +5 pt road underdog;
- Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in L6 home games; Clippers - 5-1 ATS in L6 road games.

It's pretty though to determine winner in this one, because it can go both ways for sure, however I don't think that it will be decided by more than 5-7 points. If I have to give my final verdict, then I would say that odds are more in favour of Denver here and my lean for the spread is Denver Nuggets -3.5.

If we look at the total then it's an average 212.5 for Denver Nuggets standards, since they are 38-24-0 O/U in totals and all trends for this game signalise about OVER, the only thing that concerns me is that this is the highest total set by bookies for Clippers this season. But if we look at the span of last 6 games, then for Denver average team total was 112 pt, but for Clippers - 106.5 pt.

Additional O/U trends:
- In L6 home games for Nuggets avg. TT was 110.8 pt;
- In L6 road games for Clippers avg. TT was 104.5 pt;
- Total went OVER in 8 out of 11 games, when Denver was playing as -3 to -7 pt home favourite;
- Total O/U record is 3-3 for Clippers playing as away underdogs of +3 to +7 pt;
- Total in Nuggets game went OVER in 5 out of 8 games, when the total set by bookies was between 210 and 215 pt.

Even though, Clippers are on b2b I don't think that it will affect the pace of the game and only factor influenced negatively can be defence, which is good for an OVER in this case. Both teams are playing fast and high scoring ball, especially Nuggets, and I predict something like 112-107 Nuggets.

Summing up all the things mentioned above, my leans are Denver Nuggets -3.5 & OVER 212.

Write-up and leans for the OKC/NYK game will be posted later on. But until that feel free to discuss about DEN/LAC game leans/outcomes.

[Zii]

New York Knicks v. Oklahoma City Thunder
Another big one tonight at Madison Square Garden. Knicks on their 2nd game in a row (3rd in 4 days) hosting Thunder from Oklahoma. Knicks played last two games without Melo and managed to win both, and Carmelo Anthony is listed as 'questionable' today as well. Considering all those factors no wonder why Oklahoma came out as 7 point road favourite when the line opened.

NY Knicks are only 5-5-1 ATS when playing with no rest, Oklahoma City Thunder are 27-13-1 when playing after 1 day rest. Knicks are not playing very good ATS, Thunder clearly prevails in this aspect. Though, this is the biggest spread for Knicks as home underdogs this season at home and second biggest overall, only against Miami on the road it was +11 and yet Knicks managed to stay within 11 points. I don't if it is wise to take Thunder minus points at this point, because when it comes closer maybe status of Carmelo will change and line might drop a bit, otherwise it is a bit too big of a gamble. I have no doubts that Oklahoma will win straight up, but 7 point on the road is quite a gap to cover. I'll probably look at it later on.

Let's talk total instead. Total is set at 206.5 pt now, which is not very high and not low either. Knicks are averaging around 99 pt per game this season, but without Carmelo this most certainly is going below average rather than above. Thunder, on the other hand, are drowning 107 pt per game and 113.5 pt in last 6 games. The question here is - how badly Knicks defence will be influenced by the fact that this is their 3rd game in 4 days and 2nd in a row. I won't be surprised that Oklahoma will score around 110-115 pt with Westbrook and Durant penetrating Knicks D with no mercy, but I'm not sure about Knicks, because they have gone UNDER in all 3 games as home underdogs this season, however they are 8-3-0 O/U playing with no rest; OKC is 24-16-1 O/U after 1 day off. If Knicks will manage to score around 92-98 pt even without Melo, then I would say that it is OVER for sure, but in this case...I don't know I might wait for some line movement and see what happens later, because right now it is hard to predict something.

My lean OVER 205.

Any thoughts?

[Zii]

Ok, locking in one play for the night, not sure if I'll add anything, but you can check back within 3 hours.

07/03/2013:

Denver Nuggets / LA Clippers OVER 214 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

Best of luck and have a good night all of you!

[Zii]

NB! If I manage to get up that early, probably will post some plays for the 2nd half in DEN/LAC game.

[Zii]

LIVE - LA Clippers +3.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - LA Clippers +10.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Totally got f*cked tonight. My biggest mistake was going against my guts and backing up Clippers after a half-time, got punished for that.

07/03/2013: 0 - 3 - 0
-3 Units

Record in March: 17 - 11 - 0
+4.62 Units

YTD: 64 - 57 - 2
-1.53 Units

[Zii]

Hi, everyone! Had a super busy day today and only now got home from a board meeting (it's 10pm here), that is why, I will not post any write-ups today, but only my leans for now, which I manage to come up with early in the morning. Had a super bad night yesterday, but I'll make it up for you who follow this thread tonight. Please feel free to discuss and comment on them!

Leans (08/03/2013):
Orlando Magic/Indiana Pacers (OVER 189)
Brooklyn Nets/Washington Wizards (UNDER 184)
LA Lakers/Toronto Raptors (OVER 205.5)
Boston Celtics (-4)
Chicago Bulls (-3.5)
Houston Rockets (+2.5)

[Zii]

LIVE - LA Lakers 1H +8.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

08/03/2013: 1 - 0 - 0
+0.85 Units

Record in March: 18 - 11 - 0
+5.47 Units

YTD: 65 - 57 - 2
-0.68 Units

[Zii]

And It's starting to become a serious problem for me, again fell asleep and never woke up to lock my plays in, but if you went with leans I posted, then you should have gone 5-1 tonight

[Zii]

Ok, I'll stop waisting time and get into analysis for today's card. I'll do my best to repeat a night like the last one (08/03), even though, it will be hard, but I want to make up for you, my followers, (I'm probably talking to myself at this point and no one is really reading, nor following) for that awful "-3 Unit night". Stay tuned and expect my picks and leans coming up with decent write-ups, since it's weekend I have a free time to produce them. Cheers!

[Zii]

Early leans (09/03/2013):

New York Knicks v. Utah Jazz
*First game I'm gonna look at is taking place at Madison Square Garden tonight, where Knicks will be hosting Jazz from Utah. Both teams lost their last games by an 'inch' - Utah on the road against Bulls, Knicks against mighty Oklahoma City Thunder. Actually none of these games was a huge surprise, only surprising thing, maybe, was that both games turned out to be closer than expected.

Utah is lately struggling a lot - 3 game losing streak on the road, only 2 victories in last 10 games on the road, 4-6 ATS in those games. Utah's chances to participate in playoffs are in great danger, because Lakers are breathing in the back already, this might be the clutch moment for Utah, because, if they lose, they (with Lakers) both will have 32-31 (.508).

NY Knicks, on the other side, have won 2 out of last 3 games playing without their lead scorer Carmelo Anthony, but that didn't seem much of a problem. Knicks showed that they can play disciplined and good ball even without one of their 'star' players. They matched up really well agains OKC at home and gave it away only by 1 point. Knicks have gone 6-4 in their last 10 home games and 5-5 ATS. Knicks are well rested since their last game, enjoying 2 day break, while Jazz are on back to back and third game in four days.

Statistics:
- NY Knicks are 13-14-0 ATS as home favourites, Jazz are 8-16-1 ATS as road underdogs;
- Jazz are 14-10-1 ATS against Eastern conference, Knicks - 9-11-2 ATS against Western conference teams;
- In L10 games home side has won 9 out of 10 between these two;
- NY Knicks have covered the spread in every game between these two teams since year 2005.

All things considered, I do not think that Jazz has a chance in this one, maybe they somehow manage to cover spread, but nothing more. Their are in a big slump right now from which NY is definitely not the way out. They will have a home game against Pistons in two days and I think that is the spot from which Utah can try to turn things around. The only thing that worries me a bit is that Carmelo might play tonight and that might disrupt Knicks chemistry like it was in their last 3 games, I honestly think that is would be better if Melo was announced as being out - it will be better for the team and it will lower the line by point or two, in my opinion. Even though, line is not fully out yet (at least for the majority of books), I expect it to be somewhere around 5.5 or 6.5 in favour of Knicks and my advice would be to take it if it do not exceed 8 point margin, anything lower is a gift.

My lean for this game is New York Knicks -6 & UNDER 194.

NB! Will take a look at totals later on and might add something here.

[Zii]

Golden State Warriors v. Milwaukee Bucks
Again two teams facing each other after a loss in their previous game, one of them is on back to back, other - with 2 day rest. Warriors hosting Bucks. Golden State was defeated once already this season by Bucks and they are seeking revenge tonight after a low scoring affair yesterday agains Houston. Bucks, on the other hand, were humiliated by Clippers in their last game, that is why this should be an exciting match-up tonight.

Both teams are not playing ATS very well overall, but there are some situational aspects, which I think can help in order to predict the outcome in this duel. Warriors are 15-12-0 ATS after a loss, Bucks - 14-14-0. One very significant and vivid difference stands out more than others - playing against non-conference teams: Warriors are 16-9-0 ATS, however, Bucks are only 7-14-0 ATS. This is one to keep in mind when making a final decision.

L10 statistics:
- Warriors at home 8-2 (SU), 6-4 (ATS);
- Bucks on the road 4-6 (SU), 5-5 (ATS).

There is another aspect I want to look at regarding this game - totals. It's set at 211 now, but I expect it to rise just a little bit. If we look back at past few games by GSW 'under' seems like a good call, however, I think differently. Warriors have been shooting below their average lately, but 'angry' about the loss yesterday and low scoring match they will come out strong today not to lose series between Milwaukee Bucks. I would like to present you some facts and trends as well to back up my choice of 'over' here.

O/U statistics:
- Warriors are 18-8-1 (over-under-push) in totals playing after a loss;
- Warriors are 13-3-1 in totals playing back to back;
- Warriors are 16-6-1 in totals against Eastern conference opponents;
- Bucks are 11-5-1 in totals after 2-3 days rest;
- Bucks are 12-9-0 in totals against Western conference opponents.

All in all, I think that Golden State Warriors is the right side to back today. I strongly believe that the fact that they are on back to back actually is an advantage, they are still warm from yesterday and with a thought in their mind - 'not to repeat yesterday', when Bucks will be coming after 2 days off might be a bit 'cold' at the beginning and might let it go out of hands. Another aspect in favour of Warriors is the fact that Ersan Ilyasova, who is averaging 12.05 pts and 6.51 rebounds per game, is suffering a knee injury and is listed as 'QUESTIONABLE' and might not play.

My leans for this matchup are Golden State Warriors -2.5 & OVER 210.

[Zii]

UPDATED! NY Knicks v. Utah Jazz game!

[Zii]

Additional leans:
Washington Wizards (OVER 187)
Denver Nuggets (OVER 209)

[heavypenguin]

What's your thoughts on the Atlanta/Brooklyn game?

[Zii]

What's your thoughts on the Atlanta/Brooklyn game?

To be honest with you, that's the game I haven't really looked into, since I found it a bit too though of a matchup to lay my money on it. I most certainly would not recommend sides, because that spread is really low and pretty symbolic, this could swing either way. However, if nothing dramatic happens, then it should go over though. I would recommend you to look at the total and over in particular

[Zii]

Locking in my plays for the night. Good luck to all of you!

09/03/2013:

New York Knicks UNDER 192.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Washington Wizards OVER 186.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Denver Nuggets OVER 209 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

NB! Will probably pick LIVE GSW/MIL game! Stay tuned!

[Zii]

LIVE - GSW/MIL 1H OVER 105.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - GSW/MIL 1H UNDER 100.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED (HEDGE)

[Zii]

LIVE - GSW/MIL 3Q OVER 49.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

09/03/2013: 3 - 3 - 0
-0.80 Units

Record in March: 21 - 14 - 0
+4.67 Units

YTD: 68 - 60 - 2
-1.48 Units

[Zii]

Will LIVE bet first two games of tonight's card. But might lock some pre-game picks as well.

Leans:
Boston Celtics +11.5
OKC/BOS UNDER 201

[Zii]

10/03/2013:

Boston Celtics +11.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

BOS/OKC Under 200.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - OKC/BOS Over 190.5 (0.5 Units) - PUSH!
*my book has an error and there are open totals at 190.5 and 195.5 at the same time with the SAME ODDS! Couldn't resist.

NB! Book gave me money back after the first half, due to technical issues. Won't count this one anywhere.

[Zii]

It's still opened there that 190.5 total along with original at the moment 195.5 and with the same odds, seems like a serious technical error, which might cost them a lot of money. Damn

[Zii]

1 - 1 - 0
-0.1 Unit

Well f*ck you, Boston!

[Zii]

LIVE - LA Lakers 1H -1.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

2 - 1 - 0
+0.75 Units

[Zii]

Loading up 6 plays for the rest of the night!

MIA/IND Under 190 (0.5 Units)

Indiana Pacers +7 (0.5 Units)

Sacramento Kings SU (0.5 Units)

SAC/MIL Over 215 (0.5 Units)

Portland Trail Blazers -3 (0.5 Units)

POR/NOH Under 198 (0.5 Units)

Best of luck and have a good night! I'm heading to my bed, not able to keep my eyes open. Cheers!