Zii's NBA Thread 2013

[Zii]

Greetings, everyone! I am a new sports bettor from Europe. So far I have been betting only on football and maybe some Europe hockey, but not long ago decided to go NBA. And thus far it has been going pretty well, so I decided to make it more organised and keep a thread here as well, because I see a valuable experience in that. I'll try to do my best and I am always open to the constructive criticism or advice. Cheers!

System:
- Will post early leans approximately 12 hours before tip off
- Final picks will be posted around 4 hours before the first tip off
- Sometimes will provide my picks with write-ups, but might be without
- NBA record will be kept here, but in my SBR spreadsheet will include other bets as well
- NBA and others picks posted on twitter - https://twitter.com/ZBetsZ (outdated picks/tweets will be deleted)
Good luck to all of you and let's get started!

Record YTD: 2 - 2 - 1
-1.46 Units

[Zii]

EDITED!
Due to some line movement decided to change up some leans. Still not final.

Early leans:
Utah Jazz: Under 207.5
Utah Jazz: (-4)
Golden State Warriors: (-2) Toronto Raptors: (+1)
Sacramento Kings: (+8)
Denver Nuggets: Under 195.5
Orlando Magic: (+9)
Charlotte Bobcats: (+11)

NB! WILL BE UPDATED!

[Zii]

28/01/2013

Toronto Raptors +2 (2 Units) - LOCKED
*First of all, I do thing that this is the trap line of Monday. Vegas will not forgive any mistakes and now is trying to bust those who went for Miami/Oklahoma and Boston/Lakers backers on opposite side at the same time. First ones will be on Warriors hoping for a 'refund' after burial, other part escaping the trap yesterday will overlook this one by simply not believing in it. In addition, this is last game in 10 home game marathon for Raptors, and this far they are 4-5, so it will be a good motivation for them to end this with 5-5. I think they will get their s*it (excuse me) together and will put up a good fight against well playing Warriors tonight.

[Zii]

Sacramento Kings +8 (1 Unit) - LOCKED
*Washington has been covering spread in 10 straight games, Sacramento 0-4 streak, but tonight I can see it flipping around. I believe that Kings will keep it close and within 8 points.

[NoHero]

I hope you're wrong about the Kings...

Good luck though.

[Zii]

Charlotte Bobcats +12 (2 Units) - LOCKED
*Bulls are struggling when it comes to double digit covers. Bobcats should easily stay within 12 point spread.

Philadelphia 76'ers +3 (2 Units) - LOCKED
*Memphis got a cold shower yesterday against, probably, the most underrated team in NBA - Hornets, and will not be able to recover within 24 hours, especially when the next game is in Philly.

Utah Jazz -3 (2 Units) - LOCKED
*It seems that road teams just can not match up against Jazz at their high altitude home court. Even though Rockets seem recovered, I see their 2 win streak end tonight in Utah.

5 games for me tonight. Best of luck to all of you and lets hope for a good night!

[Zii]

Toronto Raptors +2 (2 Units) - LOSER
Sacramento Kings +8 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Charlotte Bobcats +12 (2 Units) - WINNER
Philadelphia 76'ers +3 (2 Units) - PUSH
Utah Jazz -3 (2 Units) - LOCKED - LOSER

Last night (28/01/2013) : 2 - 2 - 1
-1.46 Units

*Not the worst night, but obviously could have been better. Made some tactical mistakes with amounts on stake and got punished. Hope to bounce back tonight with just four games in todays card. Cheers!

[Zii]

Early leans (29/01/2013):
New Orleans Hornets: +7
Detroit Pistons: Under 201.5
Detroit Pistons: -1
Dallas Mavericks: +3

NB! WILL BE UPDATED!

[Zii]

UPDATE: Since there is an absolute chaos going on with line movement at the moment (at least for my local bookie) my final picks might come in late and might differ from early leans. Just waiting for things to level out, stay tuned!

[Zii]

29/01/2013

Detroit Pistons Under 201.5 (2 Units) - LOCKED
*Saw this as an under at the moment of lines opening. Eventually that number was higher and has dropped during the day. The thing is with these two teams that they either both go over 100 in a match or stay around 90 - BOTH at the same time (stressing out this part). Since Pistons defence has improved lately, I believe this will be way under 201.5.

Cleveland Cavaliers +2 (1 Unit) - LOCKED
*There is nothing much left to explain regarding this match, everything has been discussed already. Warriors starting players, not necessary to name them, are injured, B2B game, Cavaliers playing at home and being on a streak right now etc.

New Orleans Hornets +8 (1 Unit) - LOCKED
*Hornets lately playing mind blowing ball. Lakers recent 'come-back' at this point does not guarantee a win for tonight (at least not bigger than by 7-8), amazing performance by Kobe two games straight, but how long he possibly can continue like that and pull Lakers out from a hole they are in? I believe that Hornets will match up with LA really well tonight.

Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED
*Dallas showing that they can actually play basket ball and Blazers low ATS covering percentage will pull this one out.

Locked up my games (however, might add extra units for some of the picks), now can sit back and wait for results. Hopefully will be a good and profitable night. Best of luck to all of you fellow forum members!

*Added 1 Unit to Detroit Pistons pick

[Zii]

Detroit Pistons Under 201.5 (2 Units) - LOSER
Cleveland Cavaliers +2 (1 Unit) - LOSER
New Orleans Hornets +8 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER

Last night (29/01/2013): 2 - 2
-1.30 Units

YTD: 4 - 4 - 1
-2.70 Units

Not the best night again, lost some units, because loser games had bigger value on them. And got punished for not staying out of the CLE v GSW game, could not resist pulling the trigger. Oh well, there is always tomorrow night and huge card coming up. Cheers!

[Zii]

Early leans (30/01/2013):
Miami Heat: -2
Utah Jazz: -7
Sacramento Kings: +7
Milwaukee Bucks: Under 191.5

[Zii]

30/01/2013

Utah Jazz -7 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Chicago Bulls -1 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Denver Nuggets Under 216.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Adding:

Denver Nuggets -4 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Sacramento Kings +7 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Utah Jazz -7 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Chicago Bulls -1 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Denver Nuggets Under 216.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Denver Nuggets -4 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Sacramento Kings +7 (1 Unit) - LOSER

Last night (30/01/2013): 2 - 3
-1.06 Units

YTD: 6 - 7 - 1
-3.76 Units

[Zii]

31/01/2013

Golden State Warriors Over 205.5 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

Fishy card for tonight, therefore only one pick. Good luck!

[Zii]

Golden State Warriors Over 205.5 (1.5 Units) - LOSER

Last night (31/01/2013): 0 - 1
-1.5 Units

YTD: 6 - 8- 1
-5.26 Units

[MP123]

Even though ur in the red I like a lot of the picks uve made... Don't trip ull get in the black just don't go on tilt man good luck 2 u the rest of the season

[Zii]

Even though ur in the red I like a lot of the picks uve made... Don't trip ull get in the black just don't go on tilt man good luck 2 u the rest of the season

No worries, a couple of red nights is not a tragedy yet. Will keep posting my plays and move on. Thanks a lot for your support and best of luck to you too!

[Zii]

Early leans (1/02/2013):
Indiana Pacers +2
New York Knicks Under 205.5
Sacramento Kings +6
Utah Jazz -4
Denver Nuggets Under 203.5

[Zii]

01/02/2013

Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 (2 Units) - LOCKED

Memphis Grizzlies Over 180 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

Orlando Magic +9 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Phoenix Suns Over 198.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Utah Jazz -4.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

New Orleans Hornets +7 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 (2 Units) - LOSER
Memphis Grizzlies Over 180 (1.5 Units) - LOSER
Orlando Magic +9 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Phoenix Suns Over 198.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Utah Jazz -4.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
New Orleans Hornets +7 (1 Unit) - LOSER

YTD: 8 - 12 - 1
-8.76 Units

[Zii]

Took the night off yesterday and watched some basketball instead of stressing it, however, do you know what day it is today? Exactly - Sunday, which means at least one home dog will snatch a win against a heavy weight road favourites.

Early leans (03/02/2013):
Boston Celtics: ML & Over 184.5
Toronto Raptors: +4.5 & Under 196.5
Detroit Pistons (depends on line)

*Not final and might change

[Italy]

why over on boston? thanks

[Zii]

why over on boston? thanks

Boston has been scoring pretty well recently and I can assure that Clips will not repeat 73 point game. It will not be way over but +2-4 point should do it. Still it is just a lean and not the one I'm feeling most confident with.

[Zii]

03/02/2013

Boston Celtics -1 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Boston Celtics Over 183.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Detroit Pistons Under 202.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

*My picks for first 2 games, Mia v. Raps game picks will post during halftime. Might post some LIVE picks as well. Best of luck and have a profitable night, all of you fellow cappers!

[Zii]

LIVE - Boston/LA 1H Under 103.5 (1 Unit)

[Zii]

LIVE - BOS/LA 1H Under 112.5 (2 Units)

*If they can keep that scoring percentage in the 2nd quarter, I'm gonna eat my hat. Insane

[Zii]

LIVE - Miami Heat -2.5 1H (1 Unit)

[Bostongambler]

Good luck zits

[Zii]

Boston Celtics -1 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Boston Celtics Over 183.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Detroit Pistons Under 202.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
LIVE - Boston/LA 1H Under 103.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
LIVE - BOS/LA 1H Under 112.5 (2 Units) - WINNER
LIVE - Miami Heat -2.5 1H (1 Unit) - LOSER

Tonight (03/02/2013): 5 - 1 - 0
+4.14

YTD: 13 - 13 - 1
-4.62

[Zii]

LIVE - Toronto +5.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER

YTD: 13 - 14 - 1
-5.62

[Italy]

congratulations for yesterday

[Zii]

congratulations for yesterday

Thanks, man. Hate myself for those two nonsense Tor/Mia picks, should have stayed off that game. Oh, well. Soon will start working on todays picks