Zii's NBA Thread 2013

[GreenT]

Not a bad night at all man... Especially when u pick so many games to play. Congrats!!

Milwaukee killed me last night and Minnesota fought but wasn't enough. I was between Minessota and New Orleans for my 2nd pick and that makes it even worse as Hornets game was an easy cover finally.. The parlay was mostly a fun one so I don't care much, but the 0-4 last 2 days is killing me... I don't know if it's time for a break and the all-star game comes the right time for me...

[Zii]

Leans (14/02/2013):
Los Angeles Lakers: +3.5
Oklahoma City Thunder/Miami Heat: Under 205.5

[Zii]

14/02/2013:

LA Lakers +3.5 (3 Units) - LOCKED

Oklahoma City Thunder (2 Units) - LOCKED

OKC/MIA Under 205.5 (1.2 Units) - LOCKED

LIVE - LAL +19.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Let's get this done and enjoy the All-star break! Good luck to all of you!

[RDTTKA12]

Is that OKC moneyline or spread

[Zii]

LA Lakers +3.5 (3 Units) - LOSER
Oklahoma City Thunder (2 Units) - LOSER
OKC/MIA Under 205.5 (1.2 Units) - LOSER
LIVE - LAL +19.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER

Last night (14/02/2013): 0 - 4 - 0
-7.2 Units

YTD: 45 - 39 - 1
-3.45 Units

Nothing much to say here - AWFUL!

[Zii]

Wooohoo, NBA is finally back. I wen into all-star break with such an awful night, but I will make it up starting tonight. NBA card today is filled with trap lines, which I will try to crack open and come up with early leans in couple of hours.

[Zii]

Early leans (19/02/2013):
Washington Wizards (-2)
Milwaukee Bucks (+5)
Memphis Grizzlies (-2)
New Orleans Hornets (UNDER 182)
Utah Jazz (OVER 203)
Sacramento Kings (UNDER 210)

[Zii]

Hello, everyone who followed this. I wasn't really active after the All-star break since now, I was betting a bit, but mostly went with my gut feeling for the day or faded those "POD" and "LOCK" plays, but from now on I'm gonna do what I did before and continue to post my plays here. See you tonight!

[Zii]

Early leans (26/02/2013):
Dallas Mavericks (-5)
Miami Heat/Sacramento Kings (OVER 210)

These are my two strongest leans so far, but I have not analysed the whole card yet. Your thoughts and comments would be appreciated.

What about this?
Orlando Magic (+10.5)
*Orlando has not covered ATS only two times when being double digit underdog, one of those two was against Philly on the road couple weeks ago.
*That was the only time this season when 76'ers were double digit favourites

I know that Orlando is an awful team and I don't expect them to win this one, but I think they can squeeze it within 10.5 point spread, because Philly has not been playing well either lately. What do you think about this one, fellow forum members?

[lucasdawg]

also looknig at the mavericks v bucks game. mav havent been that great.

orlando could pull it too, either close game or blow out

[Zii]

also looknig at the mavericks v bucks game. mav havent been that great.

orlando could pull it too, either close game or blow out

Liked Mavs against Lakers on Sunday. They played really good ball, the only thing was that ball just wasn't falling in for Mavs. It slipped away from them on Sunday (with a little help from refs), I think they will come out swinging today and hunt down those bucks.

I just can not imagine Philly blowing out anyone at this point.

[Zii]

Additional leans:
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2)
Philadelphia 76'ers (UNDER 190.5)
Golden State Warriors (+8.5)
Chicago Bulls (-6)

[Zii]

26/02/2013:

Phoenix Suns -1 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

New Orleans Hornets -2 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Philadelphia 76'ers UNDER 189 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Best of luck to all of you! Have a green night!

[Zii]

Phoenix Suns -1 (1 Unit) - PUSH
New Orleans Hornets -2 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Philadelphia 76'ers UNDER 189 (1 Unit) - WINNER

26/02/2013: 2 - 1 - 1
+0.66 Units

YTD: 47 - 40 - 2
-2.79 Units

Ehh, that bloody push in PHO/MIN game screwed me over, should had stayed with MIN +2 I guess. However I'll take as it comes, green is still green.

[Zii]

Early leans (27/02/2013):
Orlando Magic/Sacramento Kings (OVER 206)
*Both teams on b2b situation after a tough night on the road, and I believe this fact will result in bad defense rather than offense. Both teams will allow a lot of baskets and, as we know, Sacs are pretty well shooting team, Orlando offensive stats have improved as well recently.

Toronto Raptors (-1.5)
*Cavs have been hot lately, covering ATS in 5 games in a row and playing really decent basketball, however, what is enough, is enough. Yesterday they pulled out an amazing win over Bulls on the road and I don't think they will have enough firepowder to stand against well rested Raptors tonight. And yet it is only a lean for now.

What about these?
NY Knicks (-7)
*Warriors going to NY b2b after a blowout loss against Pacers. Playing awfully and turning the ball over more than scoring.
*Knicks have been playing under every critique lately and this is the spot right here for them to show what they are made of, I think they will come out strong and will not let Warriors to see the daylight all the way through the match.

Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks (UNDER 189)
*Mavs are done and Memphis will hold them back just well enough to get this under. I predict something like 91 - 85 Memphis .

These are my leans so far, after going through half of the todays plays. Your thoughts, comments or even critique would be appreciated a lot!

[Zii]

Additional leans:
Houston Rockets (-7.5)
*Rockets covering spread after 2-3 days off: 8-3; Bucks with no rest: 4-10. Imagine Bucks b2b after winning on the road against Dallas facing Rockets at home after 3 days off! Harden and company will blow those bucks through the roof tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder/New Orleans Hornets (OVER 203)
*Same situation as described above, but in this case playing OVER seems to be the real deal. I would predict something like 123 - 91 OKC (however, will not play the spread, don't like those double digits at all).

San Antonio Spurs/Phoenix Suns (UNDER 198)
*Spurs will put them to sleep nice and easy, no rush, won't probably go for a 130 - 80 blowout.

Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)
*Surprise, surprise! This one is a trap to my mind. It just seems too good to be true. Isn't it?

[Zii]

27/02/2013:

Parlay (0.7 Units): LOCKED
Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5
Toronto Raptors ML

Locked in an early parlay. I just feel that either both of them cash or none, that is why I decided to put those two in one basket and see what happens.

Soon the rest of my plays will be posted here. Stay Tuned!

[Zii]

Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Houston Rockets -7.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 204 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

New York Knicks UNDER 207.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Portland Trail Blazers +3 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Orlando Magic +3 (1 Unit) - LOCKED
*NOTE! My local book is retarded and probably due to some internal technical errors provided Orlando +3 with odds 1.87, I just couldn't resist.

Locked in and ready to play! Have a good one tonight, fellas!

[Zii]

Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Houston Rockets -7.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 204 (1 Unit) - LOSER
New York Knicks UNDER 207.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Portland Trail Blazers +3 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Orlando Magic +3 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Parlay (0.7 Units): LOSER
Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5
Toronto Raptors ML

Just terrific...The most "not my night" of them all.

[Zii]

Portland just managed to stay within 3 points to ease my pain tonight.

27/02/2013: 2 - 5 - 0
-2.89 Units

YTD: 49 - 45 - 2
-5.68 Units

Been down there already, but managed to crawl back up. That is what I need to do, will get into some big time analysis, since there are only 3 games on Thursday's card.

[Zii]

Got up early today and analysed first game on today's card while enjoying my morning coffee. Here is my write-up and leans for this one. Your thoughts and comments are welcome as well.

Indiana Pacers v. Los Angeles Clippers
*Two heavyweights crossing swords in Indianapolis tonight where Pacers will be hosting Clippers who will travel 1800 miles across the country. This can be described as 'good offence vs. amazing defence' match. Indiana pacers right now are on a hot 5 game winning streak, covering ATS 5-0 by AVG. +16.2 pts. Clippers, on the other side, are on 2 game winning streak, but covering only 3-2 in last 5 games (ATS AVG. -0.3 pts.).

- Indiana is slightly better covering ATS this season 33-24-0 (57.9%) overall, compared to Clippers 33-26-0 (55.9%);
- Indiana has very high home game ATS coverage 19-10-0 (65.5%), Clippers are good after a win 25-15-0 (62.5%);
- In last 17 games between these two teams home side has won 10 out of 7 games;
- In last 5 meetings home side has won 5 out of 5 games, covering ATS at the same time;
- Indiana has won 10, Clippers - 7 (L17);
- Indiana has won 3, Clippers - 2 (L5).

Offensively Clippers are dominant force here averaging: 100.5 PPG; 23.5 A; 52.0% FG. Pacers playing significantly better offensively lately, however, those stats can not match up equally with Clippers statistics.

Slightly, to say the least, different picture unveils, if we take a look on defensive statistics. Indiana are leading the whole parade in this category allowing only avg. 89.6 pts per game and 44.5% opp FG, collecting 33.1 def rebounds per game.

Indiana seems to be the play here, but here is the twist - Roy Hibbert is out for Pacers (suspension) and it will influence Pacers defence badly, and will damage that poor offence as well. Those rebounds and field goals form the paint would be really necessary if they want to take away something from this. Clippers are scoring a lot from the paint and that number will be even higher without R. Hibbert there. For Clippers J. Crawford is listed as 'probable', it can cut a significant hole in points for Clippers, but I can't see a good reason for him not to play tonight, but time will show. Speaking about players being in and out, Clippers strong point is this deep bench able to score a lot of points without starting aces on the floor, which is a bit more of a problem for Indiana.

Line is not out yet, but I can project it somewhere at -2.0 to -2.5 in favour of Indiana Pacers.

My lean, however, is Clippers ML.


Approached it again with clear mind and decided to go with the home side here - Indiana Pacers ML
*Pacers are just too good of a team to let the fact that Hibbert is out influence the whole team so badly that they will give up the home stand against Clippers.

NB! Might add a total lean for this one later.

[Zii]

Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76'ers
*Eastern conference match up with low total and high spread set by bookies is coming to us tonight. Philly is travelling 644 miles to Chicago. Both teams have been struggling lately, 76'ers on a 6 game losing streak, Bulls - 2 painful loses, coming against each other after devastating loses as strong home favourites. What to expect? Low pace defensive game from both sides, even though only Bulls can play decent defence, 76'ers will not come out full throttle forward, because otherwise they might crush in to that same wall again.

If we talk about how both teams are covering spread this season, then Philadelphia is actually doing better covering spread 45.5% (25-30) against Bulls 42.1% (24-33). Both teams are scoring pretty equal 92.6 and 92.0 ppg. However, Bulls offensive rebound stats are by 6% better than Philly's and they are allowing 4.4 pts less than Philadelphia.

- In last 10 games between Bulls and 76'ers home side has won 7 - 3;
- Chicago in L10 won 6 times;
- Avg. spread L10 was 4.4 pts and most of them have been close contested games.

Spread in this game is rarely wide, regarding contest between these two teams. Philly has not been playing well, but I think Bulls are not doing it either and big part of that spread makes the fact that Bulls are playing home and Philly is coming after a double digit loss to Orlando, however, Bulls ATS record as 'home favourites' are dramatic 21.7% (5-18). Of course they will be willing to rebound after such a humiliation, but the sole fact that they are desperate to do that will not make it happen. I can predict Philly keeping it close enough, something like 91 - 86 Bulls.

Total in this one is exceptionally low, but not without a reason. It almost seems like a gift from bookies, but is it?

- In L10 between these two 6 out of 10 games went UNDER;
- Avg. total provided by books in L10 between these two teams was 177.2 pts;
- 4 out of 6 games (in a scope of L10) where total was set lower than 180 pts. went UNDER.

I really do feel more confident laying my money on 76'ers +7 than UNDER in this game, but I still have a feeling that this low total is too good to be true and books did not miscalculate this one and public will be all OVER, when money is buried UNDER.

My leans for this game: Philadelphia 76'ers +7 & UNDER 179

[Zii]

28/02/2013:

Indiana Pacers ML (1.1 Unit) - LOCKED

Philadelphia/Chicago UNDER 179.5 (1.1 Unit) - LOCKED

Philadelphia 76'ers +7.5 (1.1 Unit) - LOCKED

These are my picks for tonight thus far, may add one more later.

[Zii]

Indiana/Los Angeles UNDER 193 (1.1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zaphbrox]

Thanks for posting your plays and being so thorough in your reasons for the picks.
I'm following you closely!

[Zii]

Indiana Pacers ML (1.1 Unit) - LOSER
Philadelphia/Chicago UNDER 179.5 (1.1 Unit) - WINNER
Philadelphia 76'ers +7.5 (1.1 Unit) - LOSER
Indiana/Los Angeles UNDER 193 (1.1 Unit) - WINNER

28/02/2013: 2 - 2 - 0
- 0.2 Units

YTD: 51 - 47 - 2
-5.88 Units

Damn, should have stayed with my initial leans and go with Clippers, ruined a nice night for myself. Was leaning towards Lakers -10, since they are starting to smell playoffs, but it's another story, now I'm just mad on myself, for letting other events influence me yesterday.

[Zii]

Early leans (01/03/2013):

Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers
*Eastern conference match-up where Raptors who are struggling lately host Indiana Pacers, who did not make 6 game winning streak by losing to Clippers last night, without their defensive bastion Hibbert, though. Early line came out with Indiana Pacers as 2 point road favourites. However, I do think that this line will be even higher by the time of the tip-off.

Raptors let Cavaliers score 100+ points and lost by double digits in their last game on the road and currently they are on a 2 game losing streak. Will they be able to get things together and come out strong tonight, knowing that technically it's all over for them this season? I highly doubt. However, they managed to beat Pacers 2 times this season already (both times by 2 points) and on the road while being 7-8 point underdogs. But those were not exactly the same Pacers as they are now for past few weeks.

Pacers, on the other hand, are playing really good ball and is a perfect example of a solid defence in the whole NBA. Their 5 game winning streak snapped yesterday, when they lost to LA Clippers, but, let's be honest, it was not much of a surprise with Hibbert out for Pacers and facing such a counter force in the paint like B. Griffin. Today Hibbert is expected to return along with Granger and we are about to see Pacers almost as good as it gets.

Statistics:
- Raptors ATS record this season 30-27-1 (51.7%) is nothing impressive, especially when 1 to 2 point spread is involved;
- Pacers ATS record 33-25-0 (56.9%);
- Pacers have an outstanding record as 'away favourites' - 8-2-0 (80.0%) and playing 'after a loss' - 15-6-0 (71.4%);
- Offensively Raptors are drowning average 97.1 pts per game, while Pacers are scoring only 93.9 pts per game;
- Pacers on average are collecting 6.5 rebounds more than Raptors; 30.1% of them offensively (Raptors - 25.5%);
- Defensively Pacers are giving away 8.9 pts less than Raptors (allowing only 44.6% of FG);
- Pacers are allowing 7.7 less point in paint than Raptors, and this will be a crucial one tonight;
- Finally Pacers are averaging exactly 2 more blocks per game than Raptors.

Additional facts:
- In L5 meetings between these two teams home side has won only 1 out of 5;
- Indiana has won 3, Raptors - 2 times (L5);
- Total went over in 3 out of 5 games;

- Toronto has won 5 out of 6 home games on Friday (this season) and 7-4 (including road games);
- Indiana has won 2 out of 5 road games on Friday (this season) and 9-5 (including home games);

Regarding totals, 'under' seems to be the trend here - Toronto - 4 out of L5 went under; Pacers - 3 out of L5. But Pacers are no more a solid 'under' team, like they used to be, if we look at last few games. With Raptors it is always sketchy. But, if I have to pick, I would say that this one is going UNDER as well. '187' seems a bit too high for these two.

I just can not find anything good enough for backing up Toronto tonight and I expect Pacers to come out strong tonight with Hibbert back in the business and a strong revenge factor for those two loses at home. I project something like 95 - 90 Pacers.

My leans for this one are Indiana Pacers -2 & Under 187.

[Zii]

Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies
*If anyone has what it takes to end Heat dominance, then it is Memphis. We will find it out tonight when Grizzlies are traveling to Miami to face Miami Heat. If Grizzlies want to take away something from this one, and they want it a lot, since they are on a 8 game winning streak and this win would make it a record 9 win streak this season, they must stop (ok, no one can stop Lebron James on this planet, except a brick wall and I'm not even sure about that) Lebron or at least try to slow him down. Heat will go pedal to the medal, since they are also on a season high 12 win streak and seeking revenge after that blowout loss to Grizzlies in Memphis.

Both teams had a day off after home victories. Heat beat Sacramento by 12 pts (not covering -15) in an extremely high score overtime thriller, while Memphis easily rolled over Dallas with a decent 6 point margin, even though they were down 25 at one point (not covering -7.5, though). Those two games were just an extension to winning streaks for both teams and did not mean anything more, but it is not the case today when both clash!

Again this will be a match-up between 'strong offence, not so good defence' versus 'solid D, but not so good offence', but there are some edges to hold on to for Memphis.


Statistics:
- Heat is averaging 10.6 PPG more than Memphis;
- Grizzlies are collecting 5.2 rebounds more than Miami overall;
- Grizzlies are collecting 4.8 offensive rebounds more than Miami;
- Miami average FG percentage is 54.9%, however, Memphis is letting only 48.1% fall defensively;
- Memphis won Miami at home as +1.5 pts home underdog (104:86), total of 190 was UNDER the 'books total' of 194.5;

Additional facts:
- Miami Heat has won 2 out of 3 (2-1) Friday night home games this season (2-4 including away games);
- The only game which Miami lost was against another defensive oriented team Chicago Bulls, Miami was favourited by 7.5 points in that game;
- Memphis Grizzlies have won 2 out of 3 (2-1) Friday night road games this season (13-2 including home games);

'Over' for Heat and 'under' for Grizzlies - two trends and strict contrasts. Total in this game is set at 187.5 points, which is not very high, but not low either. For Memphis there are two options in this game slow it down and make it low scoring or keep up with the pace, which would mean score a lot, but as previous experience has shown - Grizzlies actually can score and keep up quite well with high scoring teams. I think Memphis will be very focused and will do as much as they can to keep score low, only then they have any chances. I would say UNDER in this one.

To sum all up, Memphis is an underdog here for a reason, I can understand that, but 8 point underdog? To my mind it is a bit excessive to say the least and there is definitely some value in those points. I would say it can go both ways and the score will be something like 94-92.

My leans for this one are Memphis +8 & UNDER 188.

[Zii]

Considering Houston Rockets v. Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Bobcats ar well, but will not probably come up with a decent write up, why I choose certain team.

[Zii]

Houston Rockets v. Orlando Magic
*These two just do not know what the word 'defence' means, but yet both can drown couple of points.

My lean - OVER 211

Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder
*Both are high scoring teams, but they might slow down a bit, because otherwise it is a bit of a gamble from both sides to rely only on shots made and as fast as possible. I think it will level out and squeeze under those 221 points. In terms of winning I do think that Nuggets have a chance here.

My leans are UNDER 221 & Denver Nuggets -1

These are all my leans for the day, soon I will wrap up my final plays. Probably will be around 3 to 4 plays. Stay tuned!

[Zii]

01/03/2013:

Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Toronto Raptors/Indiana Pacers UNDER 186.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic OVER 213 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Locked my plays in already since lines are starting to fluctuate a lot, lost some valuable points already. Might add a small parlay later on. Best of luck!

[HoldinMygroin]

Hi Zii. Been following you for a while, Thanks for the info you put up.... Just saw you locked in Rockets and Magics.. Im thinking about the over in that game too.. But do you know if Harden is playing tonight? And if not, you still think its gonna hit Over? (Im kind of a NBA rookie)

[Zii]

Hi Zii. Been following you for a while, Thanks for the info you put up.... Just saw you locked in Rockets and Magics.. Im thinking about the over in that game too.. But do you know if Harden is playing tonight? And if not, you still think its gonna hit Over? (Im kind of a NBA rookie)

Thanks, appreciate that! Both Harden and Lin are listed as 'PROBABLE' and line for total is still going up (which means that it is nowhere near the actual ceiling), but I think they will and they must play, if Rockets want to hang in. They need to win games like this. Expect a high pace game and a ton of buckets.

[HoldinMygroin]

Okay, thanks.. BOL tonight

[Zii]

Parlay (0.5 Units) - LOCKED
Atlanta Hawks ML
Houston Rockets ML

Adding a small parlay just for fun, no big deal if it won't hit.