tonight:
seeing 0-1 toronto @ 4-0 brooklyn
and, LAC 1-0 @ hou 0-3
seeing 0-1 toronto @ 4-0 brooklyn
and, LAC 1-0 @ hou 0-3
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primetimej, how is your service grading sac/cleveland last night? and, how do you grade pushes again?
thanks,
p.s. if you grade sacramento a loser last night they are on pretty good ATS losing streakComment -
I had them opening as a -5.5 so they covered.Comment -
tuesday night looks like a push, a win and a loss. so pretty much even.
i did some statistical work today.
i started with losing streaks and winning streaks, but focussed more on the losing streaks as time went on
i found teams having ATS lost last 2 games are 124-117, so pretty much 50/50. and i included any team game ATS losing streak. so a 5 game streak followed by a win would be one win and 3 losses
more interestingly i looked at 4 game losing streaks (again a 5 or 6 game losing streak would count for all 4 game stretches). teams were 32-19 ATS the next game. a little under 64% just from eyeballing. and removing sacramento and its 1-5 record after 4 game streaks means 31-14 (almost 70%)... good teams = atlanta, boston, hou, orlando, phoenix, portland. sacramento is the only rough one.
very curious now as to one game streaks. just how they do the next game. but probably i will hold that to a one game streak only (not each part of a 5 game streak).
and i think i'll redo the 2 game and 4 game numbers for only 2 game and 4 game streaks i.e. only play that exact game. 3 game streak wouldn't count as 2 game streaks twice.
hope it wasn't too confusing. if a team has lost last 4 ATS games, they are almost 70% next game (excluding sacramento FWIW)Comment -
interesting numbers moxies. I'll keep an eye out for single teams that haven't covered in 4 games or covered 4 straight, and maybe play them a bit harder.
Also, last night I posted Raptors at +7, but said I would buy the half point if needed, but was waiting to see if number went to 7.5. It didn't move, so I bought the half point as I do with all bets, as pushes IMO are no good for this system, and I always favor the dog, unless I'm actually betting the favorite at a set number, then I'll buy it down. So last night was 2-1Comment -
One Unit Plays
Pacers -7.5 - Win +1.00 Units
Rockets -2.5 - Lose -1.10 UnitsTwo Unit Plays
Raptors +7 (I will by the half point if needed, but waiting on line movement. Public is heavy on the Nets.) (Line didn't move so I bought it to 7.5, as I said I would if no line movement) - Win +2.00 Units
For the day 2-1 +1.9 Units
1 Unit Plays 19-11 +5.7 Units
2 Units Plays 10-7 +4.5 Units
3 Units Plays 12-4 +19.2 Units
YTD 41-22 +29.4 UnitsComment -
Here's the plays for tonight
One Unit Plays
Warriors +2.5 (Buy half point)
Warriors 0-4 ATS in last 4
Three Unit Plays
Rockets +4.5
Rockets 0-4 ATS in last 4
Mavericks 4-0 ATS in last 4
Cavs +6.5
Cavs 0-2 ATS in last 2
Trail Blazers 4-0 ATS in last 4Comment -
killersports seems to come out with this free 2 page publication every day. shows ats streaks. might of course not correspond to what primetimej is using. i.e. brooklyn/atlanta is a play or not tonight depending on service tracked.Comment -
One Unit Plays
Warriors +2.5 (Buy half point) - Lose -1.20 Units
Three Unit Plays
Rockets +4.5 - Lose -3.30 Units
Cavs +6.5 - Win +3.00 Units
For the day 1-2 -1.5 Units
1 Unit Plays 19-12 +4.5 Units
2 Units Plays 10-7 +4.5 Units
3 Units Plays 12-4 +18.9 Units
YTD 42-24 +27.9 UnitsComment -
One play for tonight
Three Unit Play
Timberwolves +4.5
Clippers 2-0 ATS in last 2
Timberwolves 0-4 ATS in last 4.Comment -
twolves was a 3 unit loss on thursday night. system which won every night seems to have hit a rough patch.
i have done some analysis on NBA teams and runs (runs statistically actually being different than what i thought)..... anyway, seems like twolves, kings, nets, rockets and maybe one other tend to trend alot. and there are some good anti-streak teams too. might not be best for this system. also, might just be data mining.
i see a bunch of games tonight from a service i've started looking at every day.
i see:
okc 2 units
denver 3 units
houston 3 units (houston ATS 8-1 with avg cover 10 points vs. eastern at home)
GSW 3 units
not official picks as not my thread, but just what i see.Comment -
1/17/13
Timberwolves +4.5 Lose -3.30 Units
For the day 0-1 -3.30 Units
1 Unit Plays 19-12 +4.5 Units
2 Units Plays 10-7 +4.5 Units
3 Units Plays 12-5 +16.6 Units
YTD 42-25 +24.6 UnitsComment -
1/18/13
Two Unit Plays
Rockets +4.5
Thunder -5.5
Three Unit Plays
Nuggets -10
Warriors +11.5
Best of luck to all!Comment -
this thread has gone a bit quiet. the 18th was bad. 2x2 unit losses. and the 3 unit plays split. so with no juice that's. -4 units.
i see the 19th plays as LAC and HOU, which are both losers. but they were good set-ups. LAC 3-0 vs. Wash 5-0 AND hou 0-6 vs. minn 0-5.... i'd have those as 1 unit losses each. but might do 2 unit and 3 unit for them
20th play orlando 0-1 vs. dal 6-0 so orlando 3 units and that was a loss.
today 21st..... houston 0-7 vs charlotte 0-1 so hou 3 units LOSS ..... portland 0-2 vs. wash 6-0 still playing .... brooklyn 0-2 vs NYK 2-0 = WIN
so that's either 11 or 14 points of losses since last update, portland-washington pending.
not sure if thread will continue but i have to say i've learned alot. i like the idea of looking into streaks (winning and losing ATS) and getting ideas from that. definitely some teams seems to bounce back and consolidate winning streaks better than others (and that's ATS so it's relative to their level to a certain degree)Comment -
moxies,
I'm glad you got something out of this. I've decided to only play the ATS fade on certain games not all, and also started my own thread with just posting games, some of which will be ATS fade plays. Feel free to post anytime in the new thread and thanks for all your help with this system.Comment
