Against the Spread Fade System Thread

gojetsgomoxies · 01-12-13, 08:02 PM

btw, i saw a thread like this in another forum from a few years. it did really well in a small sample size. then someone said they backtested it and it's a net loser (might be just the juice i.e. 50-50ish system) so the thread ended.

not sure how i think about that.

also, anyone know how to program that SQL sportsdatabase site? it would have all the answers but the guide book is very very lacking (and it looks to be a very powerful and rich system)

mostly i want to do ATS and OU streak testing... maybe some home road stuff too.... but do NOT want "home underdog of more than 3 points after shooting under 40 FG% in their last home game:

gojetsgomoxies · 01-12-13, 09:20 PM

very nice. bobcats covered for 2 unit play.

2 more (philly and dallas) picks still out there.

FilL IVY League · 01-12-13, 09:31 PM

Was loiking bobcats before hand loved it evn more after this post, Primerime u da man

primetimej · 01-12-13, 09:33 PM

sorry guys typo on the one unit play. the play was dallas not the grizzlies.

primetimej · 01-12-13, 09:35 PM

moxies,

fading over unders was abysmal for me. It guess its because so many different playing styles between the teams that the over under streaks ATS per team really don't mean anything.

gojetsgomoxies · 01-12-13, 09:52 PM

so if fading OU was bad, might riding it be good?

i understand what you are saying in terms of matchups, although one thing i loved in college football is that a very low scoring team often kept games low scoring against a normal or high scoring team (unless the opponent was super high scoring). rutgers, notre dame, michigan state all come to mind. basically low scoring dominated high scoring in terms of setting the game's mood (so to speak)

i looked up some O/U logs from this year. shocked at how big misses often are AND how teams go from 40 points over to 40 points under the next game (totals of both teams).

want to look into it further. seemed like there were some pretty big streaks.

primetimej · 01-12-13, 10:04 PM

Two 2 unit winners in boys, we only need the one unit Mavs for the sweep.

thunderous · 01-13-13, 11:01 AM

Any plays for Sunday guys? I guess Knicks would be but don't know how many units?

FilL IVY League · 01-13-13, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by primetimej

Two 2 unit winners in boys, we only need the one unit Mavs for the sweep.

AWESOME job Primetime, lets keep this going, IM guessing KNICKS are a play today but not sure how many units what say you?

primetimej · 01-13-13, 11:56 AM

I only see one play for today guys (I added the Pacers in, I missed this play initially)

1 Unit Play
Pacers +4.5 (Buy half point)
Pacers 0-1 ATS in last 1
Nets 3-0 ATS in last 3.

3 Unit Play
Knicks -6.5
hornets 4-0 ATS in last 4
Knicks 0-3 ATS in last 3

HayMan · 01-13-13, 01:23 PM

How about Brooklyn 3-0 against Indiana 0-2?

gojetsgomoxies · 01-13-13, 02:25 PM

HayMan, i think you are correct.....

i see brooklyn as clear 3-0 and indiana as either 0-1 or 0-2 depending on your service. i think OP would have them at 0-2.

so 2 units play on indiana i think

HayMan · 01-13-13, 02:33 PM

Covers.com had them at 0-2

HayMan · 01-13-13, 02:34 PM

Nice win on the Knicks by the way! Thanks Primetimej!

primetimej · 01-13-13, 02:34 PM

NBA 1/12/13

One Unit Play
Dallas +1.5 - Win +1.00 Units

Two Units Plays
76ers +1 - Win +2.00 Units
Bobcats +12.5 - Win +2.00 Units

For the day 3-0 +5.0 Units

1 Unit Plays 17-9 +6.0 Units
2 Units Plays 9-7 +2.5 Units
3 Units Plays 11-4 +19.5 Units
YTD 36-17 +28.0 Units

thunderous · 01-13-13, 02:36 PM

I am pretty sure primetime has Pacers at 0-1 because he goes by the opening line which was -4.5 and Indy won that game against Knicks by 5
Btw...good job on the Knicks today!!

primetimej · 01-13-13, 02:39 PM

Yes you guys are right, I missed the pacers for tonight. They are a play, but only a 1 unit play. I have them as covering two games ago again the knicks at -4.5. Some site have it at -5.5, saying the knicks covered against them a few days ago but that was the closing line. I'm trying to get the opening line for all these plays, so I updated the post above to add in the Pacers.

gojetsgomoxies · 01-13-13, 02:42 PM

fyi, some watchlist teams (i looked at 12 best and worst teams last 5 games... so didn't look at a bunch of teams)

sac 0-4 ats
port 2-0
noh 4-0
cleveland 2-0
okc 2-0
brooklyn 3-0

over time i'm thinking maybe teams go on more small ats winning streaks than losing streaks??? small sample of course, and the figures above may have skewed my brain

primetimej · 01-13-13, 02:48 PM

moxies,

From what I've seen it can go both ways. NBA teams don't care about the spread, so even the Clippers who had the 11 or 12 game winning streak earlier in the year, we played them 0 times I believe as a fade during the streak since they were up and down on the spread. I actually think we played them one game during the streak cuz they won 4 straight but lost ATS in 4 straight. Right now there may be more winning than losing but it will all even out.

gojetsgomoxies · 01-13-13, 03:33 PM

here is where i have the teams on ATS streaks before todays (sunday january 13, 2013) play:

ATS streak (and i dont think ill update this again. i will check that i entered them from my notepad correctly but not going to check them at source again.... also, knicks and indiana was one game where ATS winloss depended on spread....... sorry for the lack of proper apostrophes and question marks. my keypad has been invaded byÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉÉ )

Atlanta (21-15)	0-1
Boston (19-17)	1-0
Brooklyn (21-15	3-0
Charlotte (9-27	1-0
Chicago (20-15)	0-1
Cleveland (9-29	2-0
Dallas (15-23)	3-0
Denver (22-16)	0-2
Detroit (14-24)	0-1
Golden State (2	0-3
Houston (21-17)	0-3
Indiana (23-14)	0-2
LA Clippers (28	0-1
LA Lakers (15-2	0-1
Memphis (24-11)	0-1
Miami (24-11)	1-0
Milwaukee (18-1	0-1
Minnesota (16-1	0-2
New Orleans (11	4-0
New York (23-13	0-1
Okla City (28-8	2-0
Orlando (13-23)	2-0
Philadelphia (1	1-0
Phoenix (13-26)	1-0
Portland (20-16	2-0
Sacramento (13-	0-4
San Antonio (28	0-3
Toronto (14-22)	2-0
Utah (20-19)	1-0
Washington (6-2	2-0

Riceboi · 01-13-13, 03:39 PM

Good stuff in here. Is this your first year playing the system or just first year tracking it?

brigade125 · 01-13-13, 04:07 PM

interesting system.. will have to tail...

PremierWagers · 01-13-13, 04:19 PM

great thread keep up the good work prime!

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 02:50 AM

for monday i see...

wash 1 unit
min 3 units
sac 1 unit

unofficial as not my thread

primetimej · 01-14-13, 12:32 PM

1/13/13

1 Unit Play
Pacers +4.5 (Buy half point) - Lose -1.20 Units

3 Unit PlayKnicks -6.5 - Win +3.00 Units

For the day 1-1 +1.8 Units

1 Unit Plays 17-10 +4.8 Units
2 Units Plays 9-7 +2.5 Units
3 Units Plays 12-4 +22.5 Units
YTD 37-18 +29.8 Units

primetimej · 01-14-13, 12:40 PM

1/14/12

One Unit Play
Kings -5.5
Kings 0-4 ATS in last 4

Three Unit Play
Minnesota +6.5
Minnesota 0-3 ATS in last 3
Dallas 3-0 ATS in last 3

UK_gixxer · 01-14-13, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by primetimej

1/14/12

One Unit Play
Kings -5.5
Kings 0-4 ATS in last 4

Three Unit Play
Minnesota +6.5
Minnesota 0-3 ATS in last 3
Dallas 3-0 ATS in last 3

Thanks for the work on this man, been tailing with success! Just wondering if this system has been officially back-tested?

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 01:57 PM

in my unofficial picks i was wrong about washington-orlando. both on under 4 ATS winning streaks.

where does op get his lines from? was portland OKC a push or a win/loss? and then who does OP give push credit to?

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 02:02 PM

ok, i have to update this table every day somewhere. why not here?

ATS streaks AFTER sunday january 14th, 1013.... and portland/OKC are treated right now after if their very tight ATS game on sunday never happened. need to hear how to handle it.

Atlanta (21-15)	0-1
Boston (19-17)	1-0
Brooklyn (21-15	4-0
Charlotte (9-27	1-0
Chicago (20-15)	0-1
Cleveland (9-29	0-1
Dallas (15-23)	3-0
Denver (22-16)	1-0
Detroit (14-24)	0-1
Golden State (2	0-4
Houston (21-17)	0-3
Indiana (23-14)	0-3
LA Clippers (28	0-1
LA Lakers (15-2	1-0
Memphis (24-11)	0-1
Miami (24-11)	1-0
Milwaukee (18-1	1-0
Minnesota (16-1	0-3
New Orleans (11	0-1
New York (23-13	1-0
Okla City (28-8	2-0
Orlando (13-23)	2-0
Philadelphia (1	1-0
Phoenix (13-26)	1-0
Portland (20-16	2-0
Sacramento (13-	0-4
San Antonio (28	1-0
Toronto (14-22)	0-1
Utah (20-19)	1-0
Washington (6-2	2-0

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 02:08 PM

all this backtesting chatter i think takes the fun out of this.

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 03:29 PM

i am trying to model some stuff but i don't understand some basic statistical stuff.

how many runs are in this data series? i can't seem to get the right answer. and of course i will share whatever i come up with (excel statistical testing). i obviously don't know what a run is. completely disregard the 1. at the start.

H H T T H T H H H H T H H T T T T T H H

gojetsgomoxies · 01-14-13, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i am trying to model some stuff but i don't understand some basic statistical stuff.

how many runs are in this data series? i can't seem to get the right answer. and of course i will share whatever i come up with (excel statistical testing). i obviously don't know what a run is. completely disregard the 1. at the start.

H H T T H T H H H H T H H T T T T T H H

ok, someone explained runs. there are 9 of them. each series of one of more of same letter. or the number of times the letter changes plus one (i thought it was number of times it changed or number of more than 1)

primetimej · 01-15-13, 09:34 AM

1/14/12

One Unit Play
Kings -5.5 - Win +1.00 Units

Three Unit Play
Minnesota +6.5 - Lose -3.30 Units

For the day 1-1 -2.30 Units

1 Unit Plays 18-10 +5.8 Units
2 Units Plays 9-7 +2.5 Units
3 Units Plays 12-4 +19.2 Units
YTD 37-18 +27.5 Units

primetimej · 01-15-13, 09:42 AM

1/15/13

One Unit Plays
Pacers -7.5
Pacers 0-2 ATS in last 2
Bobcats 2-0 ATS in last 2
Rockets -2.5
Clippers 1-0 ATS in last 1
Rockets 0-3 ATS in last 3

Two Unit Plays
Raptors +7 (I will by the half point if needed, but waiting on line movement. Public is heavy on the Nets.)
Raptors 0-1 ATS in last 1
Nets 4-0 ATS in last 4

gojetsgomoxies · 01-15-13, 02:52 PM

ATS after monday jan 15..... not totally sure of boston/charlotte last night and portland/okc sunday. gonna call boston cover over charlotte. and give both portland/okc credit for a cover on sunday. so these may not be the same as primetimej's

Atlanta (21-15)	0-2
Boston (19-17)	2-0
Brooklyn (21-15	4-0
Charlotte (9-27	0-1
Chicago (20-15)	1-0
Cleveland (9-29	0-2
Dallas (15-23)	4-0
Denver (22-16)	1-0
Detroit (14-24)	0-1
Golden State (2	0-4
Houston (21-17)	0-3
Indiana (23-14)	0-3
LA Clippers (28	1-0
LA Lakers (15-2	1-0
Memphis (24-11)	0-2
Miami (24-11)	0-1
Milwaukee (18-1	1-0
Minnesota (16-1	0-4
New Orleans (11	0-1
New York (23-13	1-0
Okla City (28-8	4-0
Orlando (13-23)	0-1
Philadelphia (1	1-0
Phoenix (13-26)	0-1
Portland (20-16	3-0
Sacramento (13-	1-0
San Antonio (28	1-0
Toronto (14-22)	0-1
Utah (20-19)	2-0
Washington (6-2	2-0