Against the Spread Fade System Thread

[gojetsgomoxies]

hey great stuff, and i appreciate your work and your sharing of this system

one thing i was wondering is whether you shouldn't exclude games like last night's raptors (3-0 @ 4-0... and i think there was a reverse one i.e. two teams that haven't covered for awhile).... i don't think playing 3-0 vs. 4-0 is really capturing what your system is about.

also, if i was doing the system i'd probably give both team's credit for push (i.e. extend their streak) or just pretend game never happened

anyway, love the system. doing very well

[FilL IVY League]

For tonight here's the plays

One Units Plays
Clippers -5.5 (Buy half point)
Warriors 4-0 ATS in last 4.

Three Units Plays
Hornets +5.5
Hornets 0-4 ATS in last 4
Mavericks 2-0 ATS in last 2
Brooklyn -6.5
Kings 5-0 ATS in last 5
Nets 0-1 ATS in last 1

Best of luck to all!

Wow what a nice day lastnight in hoops, Great job PRIMETIME kudos

[gojetsgomoxies]

looks like miami (0-5) vs. washington (2-0) is today's (sunday) only play. but would be 3 units.... not sure where game is but it doesn't affect the system at all.

[gojetsgomoxies]

nice 25% ROI after last night's games (pre juice on last nights game, but it was only a back of the envelope calc anyway)

[primetimej]

gojetsmoxies,

I understand what you mean when 3 teams that have covered 3 ATS in a row play a team that has 4 or more ATS in a row or even when a 4 in a row plays a 4 in a row. I understand you saw the raptors not cover that night but the bulls covered in a similar scenario. Obviously if its 4 vs 4 or 5 vs 5 ATS etc. then I will pass, but going forward we will see how it goes. For now just know that if a team with 4 ATS is playing a team with 5 or 6 ATS, I am only playing it for 1 unit because you are right that it is not capturing the function of this system, yet it still falls into our plays. But again we can tweak this as we go. As for the Miami play you are right they are a 3 unit play tonight.

Thanks phil for the props.

[primetimej]

One Units Plays
Clippers -5.5 (Buy half point) - Win +1.00 Units

Three Units Plays
Hornets +5.5 - Win +3.00 Units
Brooklyn -6.5 - Win +3.00 Units

For the day 3-0 +7.00 Units

1 Unit Plays 14-6 +6.3 Units
2 Units Plays 6-6 -1.3 Units
3 Units Plays 8-3 +13.8 Units
YTD 28-16 +18.8 Units

[primetimej]

1/6/13

Three Unit Plays
Miami -14.5
Miami 0-5 ATS in last 5
Wizards 2-0 ATS in last 2

[FilL IVY League]

gojetsmoxies,

I understand what you mean when 3 teams that have covered 3 ATS in a row play a team that has 4 or more ATS in a row or even when a 4 in a row plays a 4 in a row. I understand you saw the raptors not cover that night but the bulls covered in a similar scenario. Obviously if its 4 vs 4 or 5 vs 5 ATS etc. then I will pass, but going forward we will see how it goes. For now just know that if a team with 4 ATS is playing a team with 5 or 6 ATS, I am only playing it for 1 unit because you are right that it is not capturing the function of this system, yet it still falls into our plays. But again we can tweak this as we go. As for the Miami play you are right they are a 3 unit play .

Thanks phil for the props.

But of course, your on to something bro and we have to take advantage of the "advantages" whenever we can find angle. great job bud and lets keep winning.

[gojetsgomoxies]

wow, another 3 unit win on miami. can't believe that final score as i was sweating it in the 3rd quarter. looks like washington collapsed.

[primetimej]

Three Unit Plays
Miami -14.5 - Win +3.00 Units

For the day 1-0 +3.00 Units

1 Unit Plays 14-6 +6.3 Units
2 Units Plays 6-6 -1.3 Units
3 Units Plays 9-3 +16.8 Units
YTD 29-16 +21.8 Units

Off the first look I see no plays for tomorrow, so tomorrow looks like an off day. As far as money management goes we are doing good up to date. No parlays or teasers only straight bets here, so congrats to whomever is discplined enough to follow and thanks to all posting.

[luciddream]

primetimej before you started to bet with this system did you made a test for November month? I'm asking because I start doing that, still some work to do, but if I'm not wrong from 1st to 19th November I'm with -23.9u. I don't want to scare anyone, I'm just saying but there was a lot of 3u and 2 u plays lost. I might be wrong, and I hope that, but it would help a lot if someone will do same tests to confirm.

Best of luck!

[gojetsgomoxies]

BUMP this to the top. i didn't see any plays today either (monday night)

[primetimej]

Hey Lucid,

I didn't run many tests before hand. I started up the system on 11/30 and began posting here on 12/18 when I noticed it got off to a good start. I mean no system will be hot all year round, so maybe November would have been a bad month. Nonetheless, right now were hot so let's keep going.

[primetimej]

1/8/13

One Units Plays
76ers -1.5
Nets 1-0 ATS in last 1
76ers 0-3 ATS in last 3

Three Unit Plays
Lakers +7.5
Lakers 0-3 ATS in last 3
Rockets 4-0 in last 4

[gojetsgomoxies]

primetimej, thanks for today's picks. that lakers line completely jumped out at me (i realize injuries and that lakers are usually overbet, but it's still kobe and the lakers).

hey, is there any easy place to get ATS streaks by team on one page? i get them from teamrankings.com on a onesy basis right now

[primetimej]

moxies,

I just have them all in a spread sheet, this is probably why you have seen some games that shouldn't have been plays posted. Human error on my part. If team rankings.com is giving you the info then sure keep using it. I like that site a lot for college football, provides a lot of good info.

[primetimej]

1/8/13

One Units Plays
76ers -1.5 - Lose -1.10 Units
Three Unit PlaysLakers +7.5 - Lose -3.30 Units

For the day 0-2 -4.40 Units

1 Unit Plays 14-7 +5.2 Units
2 Units Plays 6-6 -1.3 Units
3 Units Plays 9-4 +13.5 Units
YTD 29-18 +17.4 Units

[primetimej]

Yesterday was our first losing day since January 3rd. For today I believe this is the most plays in one day since I started posting this system, so this has the potential to be a big bounce back day or it could really take shot at our positive units. We'll see tonight, but here's the plays. Good luck to all that follow. As a side note all five of these game it looks like the public is on the other side, so you may want to late to get the best line as there may be movement in our direction. Since this may be the case, I will wait until a bit later to bet these games and adjust the lines posted below later in the day.

One Unit Plays
76ers +4.5
0-4 ATS in last 4
Lakers +13.5
0-4 ATS in last 4
Mavericks +10.5
Mavericks 0-2 ATS in last 2
Clippers 2-0 ATS in last 2

Two Unit Plays
Hornets +2.5
Rockets 5-0 ATS in last 5

Three Unit Plays
Suns +9.5 (Buy half point)
Suns 0-3 ATS in last 3
Celtics 3-0 ATS in last 3

[primetimej]

I updated the lines that I ended up getting. The hornets moved 1 point in the wrong direction for me, but the Mavericks moved 1/2 a point in the right direction.

[primetimej]

1/9/13

One Unit Plays
76ers +4.5 - Lose -1.10 Units
Lakers +13.5 - Win +1.00 Units
Mavericks +10.5 - Win +1.00 Units

Two Unit Plays
Hornets +2.5 - Win +2.00 Units

Three Unit Plays
Suns +9.5 (Buy half point) -Win +3.00 Units

For the day 4-1 +5.9 Units

1 Unit Plays 16-8 +6.1 Units
2 Units Plays 7-6 +.7 Units
3 Units Plays 10-4 +16.5 Units
YTD 33-17 +23.3 Units

[primetimej]

No plays for today, I'll be back tomorrow.

[luciddream]

Awesome run yesterday

[primetimej]

Thanks Lucid!

Here who I got tonight.

One Unit Play
Timberwolves +2.5
Timberwolves 0-1 ATS in last 1
Hornets 3-0 ATS in last 3

Two Unit Play
Spurs +1.5
Spurs 0-2 ATS in last 2
Grizzlies 3-0 ATS in last 3

Three Unit Play
Hawks -4.5
Jazz 2-0 ATS in last 2
Hawks 0-4 ATS in last 4

[gojetsgomoxies]

great results, and thanks again!!! BUMP

[gojetsgomoxies]

liking these pics BUMP......

[gojetsgomoxies]

looks like you ran even today (friday). 2 and 1 unit losses and a 3 unit win.

gonna check saturday....

[gojetsgomoxies]

on saturday, i see....

houston 0-1 @ philly 0-5... so two units on philly?

memphis 4-0 @ dallas 2-0... one unit on dallas?

looking for some ways to automate this..

(and just for my own thinking maybe refining it in my own mind... what quantifiable situations aren't good? large favourites? some notion of the team has been doing really well but not covering i.e. nothing for coach/team to fix?)\\

[Riceboi]

how do you decide what is a 1,2 or 3 unit play?

[luciddream]

how do you decide what is a 1,2 or 3 unit play?

It's hard to read first OP post?

4 ATS = 1u, 5 ATS=2u, 6+ ATS=3u

[primetimej]

1/11/13

One Unit Play
Timberwolves +2.5 - Lose -1.10 Units
Two Unit Play
Spurs +1.5 - Lose -2.20 Units
Three Unit Play
Hawks -4.5 - Win +3.00 Units

For the day 1-2 -.30 Units

1 Unit Plays 16-9 +5.0 Units
2 Units Plays 7-7 -1.5 Units
3 Units Plays 11-4 +19.5 Units
YTD 33-17 +23.0 Units

[primetimej]

1/12/13

moxies,
you just missed the bobcats play. Pacers line opened against the knicks at 4.5, so the pacers covered.

One Unit Play
Grizzlies -1.5
Grizzlies 4-0 ATS in last 4

Two Units Plays
76ers +1
76ers 0-5 ATS in last 5
Bobcats +12.5
Bobcats 0-2 ATS in last 2
Pacers 3-0 ATS in last 3

[UZI Suicide]

One Unit Play
Grizzlies -1.5
Grizzlies 4-0 ATS in last 4


Question, shouldn't the above play be on the Mavericks since it's the Griz that are 4-0 ATS?

[luciddream]

Yeah, if Grizz are 4-0 ATS you go with the opponent.

[gojetsgomoxies]

It's hard to read first OP post?

4 ATS = 1u, 5 ATS=2u, 6+ ATS=3u

and i'd add that a 4-0 team going against a 0-2 team counts as a 6 ATS streak (add both team's streaks if they are opposite) and a 3 unit play on 0-2 team.

and 4-0 vs. 2-0 is just a 4 ATS streak and one unit play. the streaks are in the same direction

[gojetsgomoxies]

my chosen service (teamrankings.com) has indiana losing the last game ATS. so both charlotte and indiana have small losing streaks. therefore no play.

of course, your service may be different as mine only shows indiana losing ATS by one half point.

you might want to double check, but i do assume that your service shows indiana's last game (vs. knicks) as an ATS win,.