Johno's AFL Picks 2012

johno35 · 07-13-12, 10:14 PM

Melb/Freo under 174.5 - 5 units

johno35 · 07-13-12, 10:19 PM

Port ML $2.65 - Risk 1 unit
Port +13.5 - 3 units
Under 175.5 - 3 units

johno35 · 07-14-12, 02:29 AM

Might bury my head in the sand for the rest of tonight! Need to go back to the drawing board

Lookingtostart · 07-14-12, 05:06 AM

Just follow steam.

johno35 · 07-14-12, 09:43 PM

ok back for more today, good thing I walked away yeasterday, I would have expected the Pies game to go under as well as the saints game. Every game so far this round has gone over!

Adelaide -68.5 - 3 units
Over 185.5 - 3 units

Nice sunny day in Sydney today, expect Adelaide to dominate after half time

Vinnie Paz · 07-14-12, 09:52 PM

You confident or what johno? Whats your record looking like? Need some action but wanna make sure youre legit

johno35 · 07-14-12, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

You confident or what johno? Whats your record looking like? Need some action but wanna make sure youre legit

Need to update record, think I'm roughly 20 units down for the year so far, I will update after the end of this round

Vinnie Paz · 07-14-12, 11:03 PM

Any chance we get this cover? Got 68.5, looks tight

johno35 · 07-14-12, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

You confident or what johno? Whats your record looking like? Need some action but wanna make sure youre legit

GWS as with GC have been fairly competative with 1st halfs this season, I'd expect Adelaide to run away with it in the second half though. On track for the over also, shame Adelaide weren't more accurate

johno35 · 07-14-12, 11:27 PM

Hawks -49.5 - 1 unit
Over 187.5 - 1 unit

Vinnie Paz · 07-14-12, 11:33 PM

Aight johno ill go in on this, these spreads seem ridiculious

Gl to us

Vinnie Paz · 07-15-12, 12:47 AM

ThNks for adelaide. Will check in in the future

johno35 · 07-15-12, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

ThNks for adelaide. Will check in in the future

No worries

johno35 · 07-15-12, 01:15 AM

I really like Sydney this afternoon, Eagles are without Lynch, Shuey, Hams and Hill in this game. Leaving Darling to be the number 1 go to man. Darling is good but I think without those players it will mess with their structure.

Swans ML $2.13 - 3 units

GL

Vinnie Paz · 07-15-12, 01:23 AM

Can only get 5.5 spread ill bet that at 1.95.
Check in when i get up john its 230am here
Good luck to us

johno35 · 07-15-12, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Can only get 5.5 spread ill bet that at 1.95.
Check in when i get up john its 230am here
Good luck to us

GL mate, where are you?

Lookingtostart · 07-15-12, 01:39 AM

I'm on Swans to win as well, they are class, they don't mind playing at Subi, Eagles still not 100%, but they will need to be 100% for this game.

johno35 · 07-15-12, 01:45 AM

Eagles looking good early

Vinnie Paz · 07-15-12, 01:52 AM

Toronto ontario john (canada) almost 3am now. Ill ride out this hawthorne match with ya and im out

johno35 · 07-15-12, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Toronto ontario john (canada) almost 3am now. Ill ride out this hawthorne match with ya and im out

Good stuff! Hawks starting to get their act together

Vinnie Paz · 07-15-12, 02:08 AM

Hawthorn rollin & sydney keeping it close
Way to go man if these hit
How often is afl just weekends right?

johno35 · 07-15-12, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Hawthorn rollin & sydney keeping it close
Way to go man if these hit
How often is afl just weekends right?

Yeah Friday nights and all weekend. Sometimes on a Thursday or Monday night also

Lookingtostart · 07-15-12, 04:27 AM

johno35 · 07-15-12, 05:33 AM

Great day

Updated record

ML Underdog Plays - 3-5 (+1.69 units)
1 Unit Plays - 27-16 (+9.72 units)
3 Unit Plays - 47-39 (+14.64 units)
5 Unit Plays - 9-17 (-46.8 units)

Total -20.75 units

5 unit plays have killed me the last couple of weeks (1-7), going to be a bit more conservative with those

johno35 · 07-19-12, 05:51 AM

Been looking at the lines for this week, at first glance looks tough, what are people's thoughts?

garygroundwork · 07-19-12, 06:43 AM

toughest week of the year so far...

hedgejob · 07-19-12, 10:44 AM

Adl/Syd ML parlayCol/Haw under if we get a high number

Lookingtostart · 07-19-12, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by garygroundwork

toughest week of the year so far...

I agree, North/Rich game probably the easiest to "guess".

Coopertrooper · 07-19-12, 11:21 PM

Massive game tonight. If the bombers win, they move 3 games clear of Geelong, and the gap from 6th to 7th will be 3 games. The top 6 will be set, with 2 spots up for grabs.

It would also mean Geelong could fall to 8th or 9th, or could easily be equal with 9th/10th on points. With a very tough run, a loss tonight would put Geelong's finals chances at quite a distance (to put it in perspective, they are $2.40 to make the 8 on betfair before tonight's game). Geelong have to beat teams above them to make the finals, and tonight is when it needs to begin. If they win, they stay in outright 7th, and keep a buffer on the teams 9th and below, and give themselves a chance of making the September action.

On the flip-side, a win for the bombers could have them in the top 4 by the end of the round. A win will make certain a finals berth, and will keep the dream of a top 4 finish alive. A loss will have them in outright 6th, just 1 game clear of Geelong, and possibly 2 games and percentage in the 8. A loss shouldn't put too much pressure on, so there is a lot for the bombers to gain tonight, and not all that much to lose, but they do have a tough run. If a non-Vic side were to fall to 5th, then the possibility of the bombers falling to 8th could be a concern, but I still think they have a lot less to lose tonight than the cats, and a lot to gain.

I think it adds up to a bombers win.

Coopertrooper · 07-20-12, 12:51 AM

I also like the under 196.5, I had the total pegged at about 185.5, so I think the under is a pretty good bet. The double with Essendon at -3.5 looks like easy money from where I'm sitting.

GL for the weekend

johno35 · 07-20-12, 03:17 AM

Thanks for your thoughts

Tonights game is a real toss up, I agree bombers are likely but they are still with some key players missing. I'm going with the over in this one, the total has gone over 200 in the last 9 games these two teams have met. Both teams play fast paced footy and I'm thinking the total could very easily go over 210.

Geelong/Essendon over 195.5 - 3 units

GL guys

johno35 · 07-20-12, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

I agree, North/Rich game probably the easiest to "guess".

I'm with you on that one, North seem to be a good bet. The eagles might be in with a chance also, at +16.5 it might be worth a look

johno35 · 07-20-12, 05:24 AM

Lot of missed shots, frustrating when u have the over!

NewYorkKnicks87 · 07-20-12, 06:34 AM

I jumped on Geelong for the win, whenever the cats are in a corner they always come back with some big wins, hope both teams start kicking straight so we both can win some $$$

johno35 · 07-20-12, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by NewYorkKnicks87

I jumped on Geelong for the win, whenever the cats are in a corner they always come back with some big wins, hope both teams start kicking straight so we both can win some $$$

Good work mate, I tipped Geelong but wasn't confident enough to put $ on it