Johno's AFL Picks 2012

[johno35]

Pretty unlucky yesterday, Pies floated around that line in the last quarter but couldn't get us the win. And then there was the Eagles that couldn't kick the most simplest of goals. -2.48 units for the day, look to rebound today!

Geelong/Richmond under 188.5 - 1 unit
Melbourne/Bulldogs under 185.5 - 3 units

GL today

[johno35]

Good day today to finish off Round 4 with both games going under comfortably.

+4.52 units for the round

Record for season so far:

1 Unit Plays - 11-4
3 Unit Plays - 7-4
5 Unit Plays - 0-2

+3.92 units

[thecattery12]

Nice work on the unders Johno! Seems majority of the matches this round have gone under.

[johno35]

Nice work on the unders Johno! Seems majority of the matches this round have gone under.

Cheers mate, I like to look at the totals particuarly when its wet or when you have a team that has a lously forward structure

[johno35]

Hope everyone is enjoying Anzac Day! I have two picks today

Pies -5.5 - 3 units
Under 174.5 - 3 units

Hopefully the rain plays a part in this game, it will slow down Essendon's run and scoring will be difficult. GL

[garygroundwork]

johno u in Melbourne?? how wet is it? is it going to rain all day?

[johno35]

Yeah I live in Melbourne, it has been raining the last 3 days, its raining at the moment and it is supposed to stop this afternoon but it will be a wet game

[johno35]

Well the Pies screw me again, really should have learnt my lesson. Anyway I hit the under so not as bad of a day than it could have been, doing well with the over/unders lately. Be back Friday, anyone got any leans?

[johno35]

Hey guys got 2 plays on tonight

Carlton -7.5 - 3 units
Over 183.5 - 3 units

Freo lucky to win last week, got smashed around the ground. No Sandilands tonight so I think Carlton's midfield will tear them up. Also think it will be high scoring, good luck!

[johno35]

Went 1-1 last night with Carlton covering and the game finishing well under. Usually Freo score well at Subi and Carlton are a good scoring team, I'm going to be very cautious when Freo are playing now, I have a feeling there will be a lot of unders.

Got a few plays today:

GWS/Bulldogs under 190.5 - 3 units
GWS +62.5 - 1 unit
GC +84.5 - 1 unit
Saints -39.5 - 3 units
Lions/Cats over 168.5 - 5 units
Lions +21.5 - 1 unit

Big one again today, GL

[johno35]

Bad ending to what was looking like a good day, weather played a big part, thats the problem with releasing picks early.

On to to todays games

West Coast - 19.5 - 5 units
Richmond/Westcoast over 191.5 - 3 units
Adelaide/Port over 179.5 - 3 units

GL

[johno35]

Well I think I'm gonna have to start giving up on these 5 unit plays, killed me so far this year! Not a bad round though, a lot of plays and in hindsight the saints and geelong match last night both plays should have been on the under, did not realise just how bad the weather was

Season Record

1 Unit Plays - 13-5 (+7.60 units)
3 Unit Plays - 12-7 (+13.32 units)
5 Unit Plays - 0-4 (-21.60 units)

Total -.32 units

[johno35]

Tonight I have one play

Under 185.5 - 3 units

Again a really poor forward structure for the dogs is making me like this play, I was expecting the margin to be about 170 but because its at ES the number is high. I think this game will be in the 160's. GL

[johno35]

Good win last night, even with 10 goals kicked in that 3rd quarter we still got the under.

On to today's games, I'm not going to release the night matches until later in the day, I got burnt last week doing that.

Ess/Bris - Over 190.5 - 3 units
Brisbane +36.5 - 1 unit
Geelong -53.5 - 1 unit
GC/Freo Over 181.5 - 3 units

I think everyone will probably expect the GC/Freo game to go under but this is a game Freo are expected to win. Ross Lyon should be more about offence than defence today, I know I said I would be on the unders with Freo games from now on but this is different, I expect this to be in the 190's

GL, be back later for tonights matches

[johno35]

That was a little too close for comfort! The winning point kicked with 30 seconds to go, I thought I had it in the bag at half time. Lost the other 2 picks though but still up for the day and got the Freo game to come.

I'm going to the saints game tonight so I'll do my picks now

Saints/Hawks Under 170.5 - 3 units
Swans -24.5 - 5 units

Hopefully can get my first 5 unit pick for the year, I'm 100% confident with this one though! GL

[johno35]

Rough night last night, again my 5 unit pick was a flop! I really thought Sydney would be too good for Adelaide.

Looking to rebound today

GWS+86.5 - 1 Unit
Carlton/GWS Under 197.5 - 1 Unit
Westcoast ML $1.66 - 5 Units

GL

[binomial]

GL.

Nice price on WC. im looking at $1.28

[kingsr]

West coast ML 1.66??? WTF? Impossible surely!

[Chozzdogg]

Jumped on the under with eagles roos at 181.5. Supposed to be pretty wet and nic nat was a late out, so cox will spend all day in the ruck so they'll miss his presence up forward which could hurt, and i think west coasts defence can keep petrie and co fairly well in check

Edit: well over already and there's still plenty of time left, in future i'm not doing last minute bets like that..

[johno35]

West coast ML 1.66??? WTF? Impossible surely!

Yeah I thought was pretty good too, unfortunatly that was a typo, I checked my bet and it was $1.36. The line was -23.5, I thought that was going to be tuff so I thought ML would be safer, they won by 25 so would have got the win either way

[johno35]

Good day Sunday finally winning a 5 unit bet! Also got GWS and the under so a clean sweep today.

Season Record

1 Unit Plays - 15-7 (+7.44 units)
3 Unit Plays - 15-8 (+19.08 units)
5 Unit Plays - 1-5 (-22.00 units)

Total +4.52 units

Nice to be up after 6 rounds, take away those 5 unit plays and I'd be doing great, oh well hopefully I can even those up soon. Catch you next week

[johno35]

Love Friday nights! Would be nicer if there was a better game on but placing a wager on it makes it a better game!

I'm not sure if the Hawks can win by 50+ points tonight so I'm staying away from the line, I do however like the over, so

Hawks/Demons over 190.5 - 3 units

If Hawks are going to win by 50+ points they are going to need to kick a lot of goals, I think Melbourne should be able to kick a few themselves due to the fact Hawks backline is underdone, no Hodge and Gibson. Who is going to line up on Clark? If it is Schoenmakers expect Clark to kick a bag! GL

[johno35]

Bad luck last night with a lot of missed opportunities.

GC -24.5 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Tigers/Swans under 174.5 - 5 units

These two teams always have a low scoring game, expect no different today with a windy and hopefully wet game

[johno35]

Good win with the under got the round back on track, got 3 plays tonight

Lions/Pies under 181.5 - 3 units
Bombers/Eagles over 199.5 - 3 units
Eagles +9.5 - 3 units

GL

[johno35]

Got done last night, I expected a free flowing game but Eagles depleated forward line struggled to score. Got some big plays today

North Melbourne -18.5 - 5 units
North Melbourne/Bulldogs under 195.5 - 5 units

Not touching the Freo game, I do not trust Freo to win by 32+ points and I dont trust the total points, that one is a coin toss. I do really like the North game though, again Bulldogs will have trouble scoring, particullary without Jones, evem though he has not been in good form it will throw out their forward line. Gonna win 10 units today! GL

[johno35]

Got the under but the Bulldogs were too good for North. Down roughly 4 units for the round so far and it may have to stay that way as I dont have any leans for tomorrow night game as yet. I think Carlton will get the win but I'm not confident on the line, I might put a wager on the over/under but I have to look into it further.

[johno35]

Updated record:

1 Unit Plays - 15-8 (+6.36 units)
3 Unit Plays - 16-11 (+12.36 units)
5 Unit Plays - 3-6 (-17.40 units)

Total +1.22 units

[johno35]

2 plays tonight in what should be a great match

Geelong ML $2.35 - Risk 1 unit
Collingwood/Geelong over 180.5 - 3 units

Looking for Geelong to bounce back this week after that shocking display last week. Both sides have big names coming back and I'm expecting a shootout! GL

[brettels]

ahhh thats got to hurt mate!

[brettels]

if you were 5 mins earlier or so at sportsbet 179.5

[johno35]

Yeah sucks Brett, you get that though

North -13.5 - 5 units
Freo +29.5 - 3 units

[brettels]

I didn't, i was about 1 minute late after they changed it.

[johno35]

Getting raped this round!

Bulldogs -37.5 - 3 units
Ess/Rich over 188.5 - 3 units

GL, hopefully get 6 units back tonight!

[johno35]

Just got there with the dogs last night and got the over comfortably. Good to get some back, got a play for the early game today

Bris/GWS under 172.5 - 5 units

This game has under written all over it! Bris average 70ppg and GWS just 59ppg, go the under!